Pendugaan Area Kecil Menggunakan Pendekatan Penalized Spline Pada Pendugaan Pengeluaran Perkapita Tingkat Kecamatan Di Kabupaten Sumenep

Pendugaan pada subpopulasi berdasarkan hasil survei pada populasi kemungkinan akan menghasilkan pendugaan yang bias dan varians yang besar yang disebabkan oleh jumlah sampel yang kurang representatif untuk mewakili data (subpopulasi). Salah satu cara untuk menduga subpopulasi tersebut adalah dengan small area estimation (SAE). SAE umumnya menggunakan pemodelan parametik untuk menghubungkan statistik area kecil dengan variabel-variabel pendukungnya. Pemodelan ini kurang fleksibel dalam menyesuaikan dengan pola data hasil survei yang mungkin saja tidak mirip sama sekali dengan distribusi formal yang ada. Sehingga pendekatan nonparametrik menjadi alternatif pilihan. Pada laporan ini peneliti akan mencoba menggunakan pemodelan nonparametrik untuk mengatasi masalah ini yaitu dengan menggunakan metode nonparametrik P-Spline. Pendugaan dengan menggunakan pendekatan P-Spline ini kemudian digunakan untuk menduga pengeluaran perkapita pada masing-masing kecamatan di Kabupaten Sumenep. Evaluasi hasil pendugaan dilakukan melihat nilai MSE (Mean Square Error) hasil pendugaan dengan menggunakan metode resampling jackknife. ======================================================================================================= Estimation on subpopulations based on population surveys will produce bias estimation and large of variance values due to less number of samples to represent the data (subpopulation). One way to estimate the subpopulation is by using small area estimation (SAE). SAE generally uses parametric modeling to connect the small area statistics with variables supporters. This modeling is less flexible in adjusting to the pattern of survey data that may not resemble at all the existing formal distribution. So the non-parametric approach to be an alternative option. In this report, the researchers will try to use non-parametric modeling to overcome this problem is by using Penalized-spline nonparametric methods. Estimation using P-spline approach is then used to estimate the percapita expenditure in each district in Sumenep. Evaluation of the test results by looking at the value of MSE (Mean Square Error) prediction results by using the jackknife resampling method

Klasifikasi Penjualan Provider Pulsa di Kecamatan Masbagik Lombok Timur Menggunakan Metode Naïve Bayes

The rapid development of technology causes the use of mobile phones and the need for pulses to increase. East Lombok is the area with the largest population in NTB and high users of information technology. East Lombok also has an internet network or smooth communication signal, which shows that there are many providers in the area. To see the types of providers that are widely used in Masbagik District, East Lombok, taking into account the largest population, a classification is made of whether these providers are in demand or not using the Naïve Bayes method. This study aims to determine the classification results and the accuracy of the sales classification of credit providers. The data is split into two categories: training data (90%) and testing data (10%). According to the findings of the study, 225 of the 309 testing data were correctly classified. The resulting APER value is 27.2%, which indicates that the accuracy of the classification results using the Naïve Bayes method is 72.8%. An AUC value of 0.804 was also obtained, which means that the accuracy of the classification of selling pulse providers that are in demand, moderately in demand, and not in demand was sufficient

Hybrid ARIMA Modeling with Stochastic Volatility for Forecasting the Value of Non-Oil and Gas Exports in Indonesia

Export activities consist of oil and gas exports and non-oil and gas exports. Non-oil and gas exports are one of the sectors that provide the largest foreign exchange contribution to Indonesia, and the movement of non-oil and gas export values has an impact on economic growth. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to create a model used to predict future non-oil and gas export values. One mathematical model that can be to predict Indonesia’s non-oil and gas export values is the combination of the ARIMA model and the stochastic volatility model, also known as Hybrid ARIMA with stochastic volatility. The Hybrid ARIMA with stochastic volatility modeling has advantages in creating models for data with high volatility and is capable of combining linear patterned data and nonlinear patterned data. In this study, the best ARIMA (1,1,1) model was obtained with a MAPE value of 13.2082%. From the residuals of the ARIMA (1,1,1) model, there were signs of heteroscedasticity, so the GARCH model with the best GARCH (0,1) model was used. In the GARCH (0,1) model, it was found that there was an asymmetric influence, so the EGARCH and GJR-GARCH models were used. The comparison of EGARCH and GJR-GARCH models was carried out to address the asymmetric residual data pattern. Based on the research results, the best model used for prediction is the hybrid ARIMA (1,1,1) with EGARCH (1,1) model, with a MAPE value of 9.35158%

Forecasting Non-Metal and Rock Mineral (MBLB) Tax Revenue Using the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain Method in East Lombok Regency

Indonesia is one of the countries that is included in a developing countries. Therefore, the Indonesian Goverment is trying to carry out various developments in various regions. Regional development is one of the Indonesian government’s ways of achieving national goals. In carrying out regional development, of course funds are needed as the main source to support the achievement of national development. The main source of funds obtained by the Government comes from Regional Oroginal Income. One source of Regional Oroginal Income is tax. There are various types of taxes managed by the government in East Lombok Regency. One of them is the Non-Metal Minerals and Rocks, which is a tax on the extraction of non-metallic minerals and rock Tax, which is a tax on the extraction of of non-metallic minerals and rocks from natural sources within or on the surface of the earth for use. This Non-Metal and Rock Mineral tax provides quite large revenues for East Lombok district regional taxes. Non-Metal and Rock Mineral tax income is often not constant, meaning that there is an increases and there is a decreases in the amount of income. For this reason, it is necessary to forecast Non-Metal and Rock Mineral tax revenue to predict income in the future. The method used in this study is the FTS Markov Chain order 1 and order 2. Based on the MAPE indicator, the results of forecasting using the FTS Markov Chain method of order 1 amounted to Rp. 1.117.069.497 with an accuracy of 48,55% with a just good forecasting classification. While the results of forecasting using the FTS Markov Chain method of order 2 amounted to Rp.1.761.652.173 with an accuracy of 39,12% with a just good forecasting classification. If seen from the MAPE value obtained, the forecasting results using the 2nd order FTS Markov Chain are more accurate than using the 1st order Markov Chain FTS method

MODEL REGRESI DATA PANEL PADA TINGKAT KRIMINALITAS DI PROVINSI NUSA TENGGARA BARAT DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN FIXED EFFECT MODEL

Kriminalitas merupakan salah satu permasalahan yang banyak terjadi dilingkungan masyarakat. Pada tahun 2020, Nusa Tenggara Barat menempati posisi kedelapan dengan jumlah kejahatan terbanyak di Indonesia. Agar angka kriminalitas tidak mengalami kenaikan maka perlu diketahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya. Dalam penelitian ini, faktor yang digunakan yaitu tingkat pengangguran, pendidikan dan jumlah penduduk di sepuluh kabupaten/kota di Nusa Tenggara Barat pada tahun 2016-2020. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui model regresi data panel dan bagaimana pengaruh faktor tingkat pengangguran, tingkat pendidikan dan jumlah penduduk terhadap angka kriminalitas. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Fixed Effect Model dengan pendekatan Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV). Faktor pengangguran dan tingkat pendidikan memiliki pengaruh yang tidak signifikan terhadap angka kriminalitas. Sedangkan faktor jumlah penduduk berpengaruh signifikan terhadap angka kriminalitas. Kata Kunci:  Fixed Effect Model, jumlah penduduk, kriminalitas, Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV), pengangguran, tingkat pendidikan. Abstract: Crime is one of the most common problems in society. In 2020, West Nusa Tenggara occupies the eighth position with the highest number of crimes in Indonesia. So that the crime rate does not increase, it is necessary to know the factors that influence it. In this study, the factors used were unemployment rate, education and population in ten districts cities in West Nusa Tenggara in 2016-2020. This study aims to determine the panel data regression model and how factors influence the unemployment rate, education level and population on crime rates. The analytical method used is the Fixed Effect Model with the Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV) approach. Unemployment and education level factors have no significant effect on the crime rate. While the population factor has a significant effect on the crime rate. Keywords: Fixed Effect Model, Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV), crime, unemployment, education level, population

ANALISA KELAYAKAN FINANSIAL USAHA AGROINDUSTRI ABON IKAN DI TANJUNG KARANG, KOTA MATARAM (Financial Feasibility Analysis of Agroindustry Fish Abon in Tanjung Karang Mataram City)

Fish processing to produce fish abon could be an agroindustry business opportunity to improve the value of fish. The producing of fish abon in coastal areas increase the income of fisherman. Therefore, the financial analysis of fish abon agroindustry product is of particular important. It was revealed that the Break Even Points was 1264 packs, the Net Present Value was positive or greater than zero of Rp 108.823.562, the Internal Rate of Return was 45.43% greater than the MARR and actual interest rate, the Payback Period of 2.5 years did not exceed the planned business period. The B / C Ratio was 1.3. Therefore, based on the financial analysis, the fish abon agroindustry is feasible and worth to develop.. Sensitivity analysis using the approach of the inflation effect at 8.79% did not have any influence on the fish abon agroindustry. Keywords:  abon, fish, financial analysis   ABSTRAK Pengolahan ikan menjadi abon ikan dapat menjadi peluang usaha agroindustri untuk memberikan nilai tambah ikan. Pengolahan abon ikan diwilayah pesisir dapat menjadi alternatif untuk meningkatkan pendapatan masyarakat pesisir. Oleh karena itu maka perlu dilakukan analisis finansial terhadap produk agroindustri abon ikan. Dari hasil perhitngan analisa finansial diperoleh hasil Break Even Point sebesar 1264 kemasan, Net Present Value bernilai positif atau lebih besar dari nol sebesar Rp 108.823.562, Internal Rate of  Return sebesar 45.43% lebih besar dari nilai MARR dan suku bunga aktual, Payback Period selama 2.5 tahun tidak melebihi periode usaha yang direncanakan. B/C Ratio 1.3 yang nilainya lebih besar dari 1. Sehingga dari sisi finansial usaha agroindustri abon ikan layak untuk dijalankan. Analisa sensitivitas yang dilakukan dengan pendekatan pengaruh inflasi sebesar 8.79% tidak berpengaruh terhadap usaha agroindustri abon ikan. Kata kunci: abon, analisis finansial, ikanFish processing to produce fish abon could be an agroindustry business opportunity to improve the value of fish. The producing of fish abon in coastal areas increase the income of fisherman. Therefore, the financial analysis of fish abon agroindustry product is of particular important. It was revealed that the Break Even Points was 1264 packs, the Net Present Value was positive or greater than zero of Rp 108.823.562, the Internal Rate of Return was 45.43% greater than the MARR and actual interest rate, the Payback Period of 2.5 years did not exceed the planned business period. The B / C Ratio was 1.3. Therefore, based on the financial analysis, the fish abon agroindustry is feasible and worth to develop.. Sensitivity analysis using the approach of the inflation effect at 8.79% did not have any influence on the fish abon agroindustry. Keywords:  abon, fish, financial analysis   ABSTRAK Pengolahan ikan menjadi abon ikan dapat menjadi peluang usaha agroindustri untuk memberikan nilai tambah ikan. Pengolahan abon ikan diwilayah pesisir dapat menjadi alternatif untuk meningkatkan pendapatan masyarakat pesisir. Oleh karena itu maka perlu dilakukan analisis finansial terhadap produk agroindustri abon ikan. Dari hasil perhitngan analisa finansial diperoleh hasil Break Even Point sebesar 1264 kemasan, Net Present Value bernilai positif atau lebih besar dari nol sebesar Rp 108.823.562, Internal Rate of  Return sebesar 45.43% lebih besar dari nilai MARR dan suku bunga aktual, Payback Period selama 2.5 tahun tidak melebihi periode usaha yang direncanakan. B/C Ratio 1.3 yang nilainya lebih besar dari 1. Sehingga dari sisi finansial usaha agroindustri abon ikan layak untuk dijalankan. Analisa sensitivitas yang dilakukan dengan pendekatan pengaruh inflasi sebesar 8.79% tidak berpengaruh terhadap usaha agroindustri abon ikan. Kata kunci: abon, analisis finansial, ika

Investigating the Impact of Mobile Legends Gameplay on Students' Academic Performance with Ordinal Logistic Regression

The development of information technology and online games, such as Mobile Legends Bang Bang, has spread to various segments of society in Indonesia, including children, students, and university students. Although the government has supported the e-sports industry, research on the influence of interest in playing Mobile Legends on students' academic performance is still limited. Therefore, this research aims to identify the impact of interest in playing Mobile Legends and the significant factors affecting students' academic performance. We used the ordinal logistic regression method in our analysis, a statistical technique to measure the relationship between independent variables and ordinal dependent variables, such as academic performance levels categorized as low, moderate, or high GPA. Our analysis results in two models: low Cumulative Grade Point Average (GPA) and moderate GPA. The significant factors are the level of interest, including the 'very interested' and 'interested' categories, and Gender with the category 'male.' Our analysis also indicates that the obtained model provides good results and is acceptable since all the explanatory variables are statistically significant

The Newton Model for Seaweed Drying: An Investigation of a Cabinet Dryer Using Biomass Energy

This study investigates the viability of employing a cabinet-type dryer with a heat energy source derived from biomass combustion to dry Eucheuma sp. using Newton's model. In this investigation, seaweed was dried with air at a temperature of 55 °C. A reduction in water content of 8.1% was attained after six hours of drying. To make the data fit the suggested drying mathematical model, the data were examined and recorded. The model feasibility test shows that, with a coefficient of determination (R2) that is close to one and corrected at 0.9502, the Newton model can be used to predict the moisture content of dried seaweed after the drying process using a cabinet-type dryer with a source of heat energy from biomass combustion

Pelatihan Metode Statistika untuk Meningkatkan Kompetensi Guru dalam Penulisan Karya Tulis Ilmiah (KTI) di SMAN 1 Selong

Sejak Permenpan Nomor 16 Tahun 2009 yang mengatur persyaratan kenaikan pangkat bagi guru, banyak guru yang mengalami stagnasi dalam perkembangan karir mereka karena kesulitan dalam menulis Karya Tulis Ilmiah (KTI). Salah satu faktor penyebabnya adalah kurangnya pengetahuan tentang analisis statistika yang diperlukan untuk mengolah dan menginterpretasikan hasil penelitian mereka. Sebagian besar analisis yang dilakukan oleh guru terbatas pada analisis deskriptif sederhana, hal ini menyebabkan analisis yang dilakukan masih kurang mendalam dan belum mampu menyimpulkan secara komprehensif. Program ini pengabdian kepada Masyarakat ini bertujuan untuk Meningkatkan Kompetensi Guru dalam Penulisan Karya Tulis Ilmiah (KTI) dengan melakukan pelatihan metode statistika dan bagaimana mengaplikasikannya. Hasil program menunjukkan peningkatan signifikan dalam pemahaman guru tentang statistika, beberapa metode statistika yang relevan, serta penggunaan perangkat lunak SPSS. Program ini tidak hanya meningkatkan kompetensi statistika guru, tetapi juga berpotensi meningkatkan kualitas pendidikan di sekolah dan menjadi contoh inspiratif bagi sekolah lain yang menghadapi masalah serupa dalam pemahaman statistik

KELAYAKAN FINANSIAL USAHA AGROINDUSTRI BAWANG GORENG UNTUK MENINGKATKAN PENDAPATAN MASYARAKAT KECAMATAN SELAPARANG, KOTA MATARAM

The financial feasibility analysis in Dutra fried onion microbusiness is carried out in addition to looking at potential for business development in densely populated areas in the city of Mataram as well as to predict the possible obstacles and opportunities that can occur in the future, so this analysis can help increase group income by at least 10 percent. Some things that are reviewed and in the financial feasibility analysis include investment and production costs, cost of goods sold, and business eligibility criteria which include Annual Equivalent (AE), Net Present Value (NPV), Payback Period (PP), and B / C Returns Ratio. The result of the calculation of the financial feasibility of Dutra’s microbusiness is AE IDR 16.153.600, NPV IDR 42.392.660, Payback Perode for 2 years, and B / C Ratio 1.39 in the first year based on financial asset. From these results it can be concluded that a micro business that is feasible to do and if supported by the right marketing process it is not impossible to become a small business icon in this region