V838 Monocerotis: A Geometric Distance from Hubble Space Telescope Polarimetric Imaging of its Light Echo

Following the outburst of the unusual variable star V838 Monocerotis in 2002, a spectacular light echo appeared. A light echo provides the possibility of direct geometric distance determination, because it should contain a ring of highly linearly polarized light at a linear radius of ct, where t is the time since the outburst. We present imaging polarimetry of the V838 Mon light echo, obtained in 2002 and 2005 with the Advanced Camera for Surveys onboard the Hubble Space Telescope, which confirms the presence of the highly polarized ring. Based on detailed modeling that takes into account the outburst light curve, the paraboloidal echo geometry, and the physics of dust scattering and polarization, we find a distance of 6.1+-0.6 kpc. The error is dominated by the systematic uncertainty in the scattering angle of maximum linear polarization, taken to be theta_{max}=90^o +- 5^o. The polarimetric distance agrees remarkably well with a distance of 6.2+-1.5 kpc obtained from the entirely independent method of main-sequence fitting to a sparse star cluster associated with V838 Mon. At this distance, V838 Mon at maximum light had M_V\simeq-9.8, making it temporarily one of the most luminous stars in the Local Group. Our validation of the polarimetric method offers promise for measurement of extragalactic distances using supernova light echoes.Comment: 43 pages, 17 figures, 3 tables; accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal. Version with high-quality figures available at http://www.stsci.edu/~bond/v838monpolariz.pd

Mediterranean cyclones and windstorms in a changing climate

Changes in the frequency and intensity of cyclones and associated windstorms affecting the Medi-terranean region simulated under enhanced Greenhouse Gas forcing conditions are investigated. The analysis is based on 7 climate model integrations performed with two coupled global models (ECHAM5 MPIOM and INGV CMCC), comparing the end of the twentieth century and at least the first half of the twenty-first century. As one of the models has a considerably enhanced resolution of the atmosphere and the ocean, it is also investigated whether the climate change signals are influenced by the model resolution. While the higher resolved simulation is closer to reanalysis climatology, both in terms of cyclones and windstorm distributions, there is no evidence for an influence of the resolution on the sign of the climate change signal. All model simulations show a reduction in the total number of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region under climate change conditions. Exceptions are Morocco and the Levant region, where the models predict an increase in the number of cyclones. The reduction is especially strong for intense cyclones in terms of their Laplacian of pressure. The influence of the simulated positive shift in the NAO Index on the cyclone decrease is restricted to the Western Mediterranean region, where it explains 10–50 % of the simulated trend, depending on the individual simulation. With respect to windstorms, decreases are simulated over most of the Mediterranean basin. This overall reduction is due to a decrease in the number of events associated with local cyclones, while the number of events associated with cyclones outside of the Mediterranean region slightly increases. These systems are, however, less intense in terms of their integrated severity over the Mediterranean area, as they mostly affect the fringes of the region. In spite of the general reduction in total numbers, several cyclones and windstorms of intensity unknown under current climate conditions are identified for the scenario simulations. For these events, no common trend exists in the individual simulations. Thus, they may rather be attributed to long-term (e.g. decadal) variability than to the Greenhouse Gas forcing. Nevertheless, the result indicates that high-impact weather systems will remain an important risk in the Mediterranean Basin

Intracranial Aneurysm Classifier Using Phenotypic Factors: An International Pooled Analysis

Intracranial aneurysms (IAs) are usually asymptomatic with a low risk of rupture, but consequences of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) are severe. Identifying IAs at risk of rupture has important clinical and socio-economic consequences. The goal of this study was to assess the effect of patient and IA characteristics on the likelihood of IA being diagnosed incidentally versus ruptured. Patients were recruited at 21 international centers. Seven phenotypic patient characteristics and three IA characteristics were recorded. The analyzed cohort included 7992 patients. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that: (1) IA location is the strongest factor associated with IA rupture status at diagnosis; (2) Risk factor awareness (hypertension, smoking) increases the likelihood of being diagnosed with unruptured IA; (3) Patients with ruptured IAs in high-risk locations tend to be older, and their IAs are smaller; (4) Smokers with ruptured IAs tend to be younger, and their IAs are larger; (5) Female patients with ruptured IAs tend to be older, and their IAs are smaller; (6) IA size and age at rupture correlate. The assessment of associations regarding patient and IA characteristics with IA rupture allows us to refine IA disease models and provide data to develop risk instruments for clinicians to support personalized decision-making

Textbook outcome in urgent early cholecystectomy for acute calculous cholecystitis: results post hoc of the S.P.Ri.M.A.C.C study

Introduction: A textbook outcome patient is one in which the operative course passes uneventful, without complications, readmission or mortality. There is a lack of publications in terms of TO on acute cholecystitis. Objetive: The objective of this study is to analyze the achievement of TO in patients with urgent early cholecystectomy (UEC) for Acute Cholecystitis. and to identify which factors are related to achieving TO. Materials and methods: This is a post hoc study of the SPRiMACC study. It ́s a prospective multicenter observational study run by WSES. The criteria to define TO in urgent early cholecystectomy (TOUEC) were no 30-day mortality, no 30-day postoperative complications, no readmission within 30 days, and hospital stay ≤ 7 days (75th percentile), and full laparoscopic surgery. Patients who met all these conditions were taken as presenting a TOUEC. Outcomes: 1246 urgent early cholecystectomies for ACC were included. In all, 789 patients (63.3%) achieved all TOUEC parameters, while 457 (36.6%) failed to achieve one or more parameters and were considered non-TOUEC. The patients who achieved TOUEC were younger had significantly lower scores on all the risk scales analyzed. In the serological tests, TOUEC patients had lower values for in a lot of variables than non-TOUEC patients. The TOUEC group had lower rates of complicated cholecystitis. Considering operative time, a shorter duration was also associated with a higher probability of reaching TOUEC. Conclusion: Knowledge of the factors that influence the TOUEC can allow us to improve our results in terms of textbook outcome

Regulation and Innovation in the Pharmaceutical Industry

Article based on a paper prepared for the HEW Review Panel on New Drug Regulatio

HST observations of the interacting galaxies NGC 2207 and IC 2163

Original article can be found at: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/AJ/--Copyright American Astronomical SocietyHubble Space Telescope (HST ) images of the galaxies NGC 2207 and IC 2163 show star formation and dust structures in a system that has experienced a recent grazing encounter. Tidal forces from NGC 2207 compressed and elongated the disk of IC 2163, forming an oval ridge of star formation along a caustic where the perturbed gas rebounded after its inward excursion. Gas flowing away from this ridge has a peculiar structure characterized by thin parallel dust filaments transverse to the direction of motion. The filaments become thicker and longer as the gas approaches the tidal arm. Star formation that occurs in the filaments consistently lags behind, as if the exponential disk pressure gradient pushes outward on the gas but not on the young stars. Numerical models suggest that the filaments come from flocculent spiral arms that were present before the interaction. The arms stretch out into parallel filaments as the tidal tail forms. A dust lane at the outer edge of the tidal tail is a shock front where the Ñow abruptly changes direction. Gas at small-to-intermediate radii along this edge flows back toward the galaxy, while elsewhere in the tidal arm, the gas flows outward.Peer reviewe