Predicting prostate cancer treatment choices: The role of numeracy, time discounting, and risk attitudes

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer among males in the United States and there is lack of consensus as to whether active surveillance (AS) or radical prostatectomy (RP) is the best course of treatment. In this study we examined the role of three overlooked determinants of decision making about prostate cancer treatment in a hypothetical experiment—numeracy, time discounting, and risk taking in 279 men over age 50 without a prior prostate cancer diagnosis. Results showed that AS was the most frequently chosen option. Furthermore, numeracy and time discounting significantly predicted participants’ preference for AS, whereas a propensity to take risks was associated with a preference for RP. Such insights into the factors that affects cancer treatment preferences may improve tailored decision aids and help physicians be better poised to engage in shared decision-making to improve both patient-reported and clinical outcomes

Cross-Sectional Study of Toxoplasma gondii Infection in Pig Farms in England

Ingestion of undercooked meat has been proposed as an important source of human Toxoplasma gondii infection. To ascertain the contribution of meat consumption to the risk of human infection, estimates of the prevalence of infection in meat-producing animals are required. A cross-sectional study was conducted to assess T. gondii infection in pigs raised in England, to identify risk factors for infection, and to compare performance of two serological tests: modified agglutination test (MAT) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Blood samples from 2071 slaughter pigs originating from 131 farms were collected and 75 (3.6%) were found to be positive by MAT. Positive pigs originated from 24 farms. A subset of samples (n = 492) were tested using ELISA, and a significant disagreement (p = 50% probability of having at least one infected pig (n = 5, 6.8%) and (2) >= 10% probability (n = 15, 20.5%). Data on putative risk factors were obtained for 73 farms. Using a 10% cutoff, the relative risk (RR) of infection was higher in farms where cats have direct access to pigs' food (RR = 2.6; p = 0.04), pigs have outdoor access (RR = 3.0; p = 0.04), and farms keeping <= 200 pigs (RR = 3.9; p = 0.02), with strong collinearity between the three variables. The findings suggest a low level of T. gondii infection in the farms studied, most of which are likely to send to slaughter batches comprising 100% uninfected pigs. These results provide key inputs to quantitatively assess the T. gondii risk posed by pork to consumers

The Search for Invariance: Repeated Positive Testing Serves the Goals of Causal Learning

Positive testing is characteristic of exploratory behavior, yet it seems to be at odds with the aim of information seeking. After all, repeated demonstrations of one’s current hypothesis often produce the same evidence and fail to distinguish it from potential alternatives. Research on the development of scientific reasoning and adult rule learning have both documented and attempted to explain this behavior. The current chapter reviews this prior work and introduces a novel theoretical account—the Search for Invariance (SI) hypothesis—which suggests that producing multiple positive examples serves the goals of causal learning. This hypothesis draws on the interventionist framework of causal reasoning, which suggests that causal learners are concerned with the invariance of candidate hypotheses. In a probabilistic and interdependent causal world, our primary goal is to determine whether, and in what contexts, our causal hypotheses provide accurate foundations for inference and intervention—not to disconfirm their alternatives. By recognizing the central role of invariance in causal learning, the phenomenon of positive testing may be reinterpreted as a rational information-seeking strategy

Examining a staging model for anorexia nervosa: empirical exploration of a four stage model of severity.

Background: An illness staging model for anorexia nervosa (AN) has received increasing attention, but assessing the merits of this concept is dependent on empirically examining a model in clinical samples. Building on preliminary findings regarding the reliability and validity of the Clinician Administered Staging Instrument for Anorexia Nervosa (CASIAN), the current study explores operationalising CASIAN severity scores into stages and assesses their relationship with other clinical features. Method: In women with DSM-IV-R AN and sub-threshold AN (all met AN criteria using DSM 5), receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis (n = 67) assessed the relationship between the sensitivity and specificity of each stage of the CASIAN. Thereafter chi-square and post-hoc adjusted residual analysis provided a preliminary assessment of the validity of the stages comparing the relationship between stage and treatment intensity and AN sub-types, and explored movement between stages after six months (Time 3) in a larger cohort (n = 171). Results: The CASIAN significantly distinguished between milder stages of illness (Stage 1 and 2) versus more severe stages of illness (Stages 3 and 4), and approached statistical significance in distinguishing each of the four stages from one other. CASIAN Stages were significantly associated with treatment modality and primary diagnosis, and CASIAN Stage at Time 1 was significantly associated with Stage at 6 month follow-up. Conclusions: Provisional support is provided for a staging model in AN. Larger studies with longer follow-up of cases are now needed to replicate and extend these findings and evaluate the overall utility of staging as well as optimal staging models

Singlet exciton fission in solution.

Singlet exciton fission, the spin-conserving process that produces two triplet excited states from one photoexcited singlet state, is a means to circumvent the Shockley-Queisser limit in single-junction solar cells. Although the process through which singlet fission occurs is not well characterized, some local order is thought to be necessary for intermolecular coupling. Here, we report a triplet yield of 200% and triplet formation rates approaching the diffusion limit in solutions of bis(triisopropylsilylethynyl (TIPS)) pentacene. We observe a transient bound excimer intermediate, formed by the collision of one photoexcited and one ground-state TIPS-pentacene molecule. The intermediate breaks up when the two triplets separate to each TIPS-pentacene molecule. This efficient system is a model for future singlet-fission materials and for disordered device components that produce cascades of excited states from sunlight.B.J.W. was supported by a Herchel Smith Research Fellowship. A.J.M. received funding from a Marie Curie Scholarship. D.B. is a FNRS Research Director. Both A.J.M and D.B. acknowledge support from the European Community’s Initial Training Network SUPERIOR (PITN-GA-2009-238177). Further funding for this project came from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and a pump-prime grant from the Winton Programme for the Physics of Sustainability.This is the accepted version of an article originally published in Nature Chemistry 5, 1019–1024 and available online at http://www.nature.com/nchem/journal/v5/n12/full/nchem.1801.html. Nature Publishing Group's conditions for reuse are detailed at http://www.nature.com/authors/policies/license.html

Standardisation framework for the Maudsley staging method for treatment resistance in depression

Background: Treatment-resistant depression (TRD) is a serious and relatively common clinical condition. Lack of consensus on defining and staging TRD remains one of the main barriers to understanding TRD and approaches to intervention. The Maudsley Staging Method (MSM) is the first multidimensional model developed to define and stage treatment-resistance in “unipolar depression”. The model is being used increasingly in treatment and epidemiological studies of TRD and has the potential to support consensus. Yet, standardised methods for rating the MSM have not been described adequately. The aim of this report is to present standardised approaches for rating or completing the MSM. Method: Based on the initial development of the MSM and a narrative review of the literature, the developers of the MSM provide explicit guidance on how the three dimensions of the MSM–treatment failure, severity of depressive episode and duration of depressive episode– may be rated. Result: The core dimension of the MSM, treatment failure, may be assessed using the Maudsley Treatment Inventory (MTI), a new method developed for the purposes of completing the MSM. The MTI consists of a relatively comprehensive list of medications with options for rating doses and provisions treatment for multiple episodes. The second dimension, severity of symptoms, may be assessed using simple instruments such as the Clinical Global Impression, the Psychiatric Status Rating or checklist from a standard diagnostic checklist. The standardisation also provides a simple rating scale for scoring the third dimension, duration of depressive episode. Conclusion: The approaches provided should have clinical and research utility in staging TRD. However, in proposing this model, we are fully cognisant that until the pathophysiology of depression is better understood, staging methods can only be tentative approximations. Future developments should attempt to incorporate other biological/ pathophysiological dimensions for staging

Academic Performance and Behavioral Patterns

Identifying the factors that influence academic performance is an essential part of educational research. Previous studies have documented the importance of personality traits, class attendance, and social network structure. Because most of these analyses were based on a single behavioral aspect and/or small sample sizes, there is currently no quantification of the interplay of these factors. Here, we study the academic performance among a cohort of 538 undergraduate students forming a single, densely connected social network. Our work is based on data collected using smartphones, which the students used as their primary phones for two years. The availability of multi-channel data from a single population allows us to directly compare the explanatory power of individual and social characteristics. We find that the most informative indicators of performance are based on social ties and that network indicators result in better model performance than individual characteristics (including both personality and class attendance). We confirm earlier findings that class attendance is the most important predictor among individual characteristics. Finally, our results suggest the presence of strong homophily and/or peer effects among university students

Surviving Sepsis Campaign: International Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock: 2016.

OBJECTIVE: To provide an update to "Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock: 2012." DESIGN: A consensus committee of 55 international experts representing 25 international organizations was convened. Nominal groups were assembled at key international meetings (for those committee members attending the conference). A formal conflict-of-interest (COI) policy was developed at the onset of the process and enforced throughout. A stand-alone meeting was held for all panel members in December 2015. Teleconferences and electronic-based discussion among subgroups and among the entire committee served as an integral part of the development. METHODS: The panel consisted of five sections: hemodynamics, infection, adjunctive therapies, metabolic, and ventilation. Population, intervention, comparison, and outcomes (PICO) questions were reviewed and updated as needed, and evidence profiles were generated. Each subgroup generated a list of questions, searched for best available evidence, and then followed the principles of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system to assess the quality of evidence from high to very low, and to formulate recommendations as strong or weak, or best practice statement when applicable. RESULTS: The Surviving Sepsis Guideline panel provided 93 statements on early management and resuscitation of patients with sepsis or septic shock. Overall, 32 were strong recommendations, 39 were weak recommendations, and 18 were best-practice statements. No recommendation was provided for four questions. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial agreement exists among a large cohort of international experts regarding many strong recommendations for the best care of patients with sepsis. Although a significant number of aspects of care have relatively weak support, evidence-based recommendations regarding the acute management of sepsis and septic shock are the foundation of improved outcomes for these critically ill patients with high mortality