Land and stock bubbles, crashes and exit strategies in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013

We study the land and stock markets in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013. While the Nikkei stock average in the late 1980s and its -48% crash in 1990 is generally recognized as a financial market bubble, a bigger bubble and crash was in the land market. The crash in the Nikkei which started on the first trading day of 1990 was predictable in April 1989 using the bond-stock earnings yield model which signaled a crash but not when. We show that it was possible to use the change point detection model based solely on price movements for profitable exits of long positions both circa 1990 and in 2013

When to sell Apple and the NASDAQ? Trading bubbles with a stochastic disorder model

In this paper, the authors apply a continuous time stochastic process model developed by Shiryaev and Zhutlukhin for optimal stopping of random price processes that appear to be bubbles. By a bubble we mean the rising price is largely based on the expectation of higher and higher future prices. Futures traders such as George Soros attempt to trade such markets. The idea is to exit near the peak from a starting long position. The model applies equally well on the short side, that is when to enter and exit a short position. In this paper we test the model in two technology markets. These include the price of Apple computer stock AAPL from various times in 2009-2012 after the local low of March 6, 2009; plus a market where it is known that the generally very successful bubble trader George Soros lost money by shorting the NASDAQ-100 stock index too soon in 2000. The Shiryaev-Zhitlukhin model provides good exit points in both situations that would have been profitable to speculators following the model

Aerosol major ion record at Mount Washington

This study examined the seasonal cycles and regional-scale meteorological controls on the chemical properties of bulk aerosols collected from 1999 to 2004 at Mount Washington, the highest peak in the northeastern United States. The concentrations of NH4+ and SO42− peaked during summer months. The pattern for aerosol NO3− was more complicated with relatively high median concentrations characterizing spring and summer months, but with major elevated events occurring during fall, winter, and spring. The seasonal relationship between NH4+ and SO42− indicated that during warmer months a mixture of (NH4)2SO4 and NH4HSO4 was present, while it was mainly the latter in winter. More acidity and higher concentrations of the major species were generally associated with winds from the southwest and west sectors. The highest (≥95th percentile) concentrations of SO42− and NH4+ were associated with air mass transport from major upwind source regions in the Midwest and along the eastern seaboard. The ionic composition and seasonal cycle observed at Mount Washington were similar to those measured at other northeastern sites, but the range and average concentrations were much lower. These differences were exaggerated during wintertime. Included in this paper are several Eulerian case studies of SO2 conversion to SO42− during transit from Whiteface Mountain, New York, to Mount Washington. The calculations suggest a gas-phase SO2 oxidation rate of ∼1–2% per hour and demonstrate the possibility of using these two sites to investigate the chemical evolution of air masses as they move from Midwestern source regions to northern New England

Anterior communicating artery complex aneurysms: anatomic characteristics as predictors of surgical outcome in 300 cases

OBJECTIVE Anterior communicating artery (ACoA) complex aneurysms are challenging to treat microsurgically. The authors report their experience with microsurgical treatment of ACoA aneurysms and examine the anatomic characteristics of these aneurysms as predictors of outcome. METHODS The authors queried their institution’s aneurysm database for records of consecutive patients treated for ACoA aneurysms via microsurgical clip ligation. Data included patient demographics and clinical/radiographic presentation characteristics as well as operative techniques. Glasgow outcome scores (GOS) at hospital discharge and 6-month as well as 1-year follow-up were analyzed. RESULTS Of 319 ACoA aneurysms that underwent treatment, 259 were ruptured and 60 were unruptured. Average GOS at 1-year follow-up for all patients was 4.6. Average GOS for patients with ruptured aneurysms correlated with Hunt and Hess grade at presentation, presence of frontal hemorrhages, and need for multiple clips during surgery. Notably, 142 (44.5%) of aneurysms originated mainly from the ACoA artery; 12 (3.8%) primarily from the A1 branch; 3 (0.9%) from the A2 branch; and 162 (50.8%) from the A1/A2 junction. Aneurysm projection was superior in 118 (37%), inferior in 106 (33.2%), anterior in 88 (27.6%), and posterior in 7 (2.2%). Patients with aneurysms originating from the A1 segment had worse outcomes. Posteriorly-projecting aneurysms were more likely to be unruptured and larger than other aneurysm configurations. CONCLUSIONS The aneurysm’s exact location in relation to the adjacent neurovascular structures is potentially predictive of outcomes in the microsurgical treatment of ACoA aneurysms

Evaluating of HPV-DNA ISH as an adjunct to p16 testing in oropharyngeal cancer

© 2020 Jeffrey Chi. Aim: Current guidelines recommend p16 immunohistochemistry (IHC) for testing human papillomavirus (HPV) in oropharyngeal carcinoma (OPSCC). We evaluated the value of adding DNA in situ hybridization (ISH) to p16 IHC. Methods: Fifty patients with OPSCC were analyzed. Concordance between HPV-DNA ISH and p16 IHC was measured by Gwet\u27s agreement coefficient. Results: p16 IHC was positive in 35/48 (72.9%), negative in 8/48 (16.7%) patients. Wide spectrum DNA-ISH was positive in 9/23 (39%) and negative in 14/23 (60.9%) patients. High-risk 16/18 (HR) HPV DNA-ISH was positive in 11/23 (47.8%) and negative in 12 (52.2%) patients. The agreement between HPV DNA-ISH and p16 IHC is fair (Gwet\u27s AC1 = 0.318). Conclusion: The agreement between p16 IHC and HPV-DNA ISH was fair. However, ISH sensitivity was low. Our findings add to the current data that p16 IHC testing is reliable and may be enough as a stand-alone test for HPV detection in OPSCC. Current testing guidelines recommend p16 immunochemistry (IHC) for detecting human papillomavirus (HPV) in oropharyngeal cancer (OPSCC). We evaluated the value of adding HPV DNA in situ hybridization (ISH) to p16 IHC. Fifty patients with OPSCC were analyzed. p16 IHC was positive in 72.9% of patients and DNA-ISH was positive in 39% of patients when wide spectrum probe was used and positive in 47.8% of patients when high-risk probe was used. The agreement between the two tests was fair. However, DNA-ISH sensitivity was low. p16 IHC may be enough as a stand-alone test for detection of HPV in OPSCC

Aerosol optical and microphysical retrievals from a hybrid multiwavelength lidar data set - DISCOVER-AQ 2011

© Author(s) 2014. This open access work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).Retrievals of aerosol microphysical properties (effective radius, volume and surface-area concentrations) and aerosol optical properties (complex index of refraction and single-scattering albedo) were obtained from a hybrid multiwavelength lidar data set for the first time. In July 2011, in the Baltimore-Washington DC region, synergistic profiling of optical and microphysical properties of aerosols with both airborne (in situ and remote sensing) and ground-based remote sensing systems was performed during the first deployment of DISCOVER-AQ. The hybrid multiwavelength lidar data set combines ground-based elastic backscatter lidar measurements at 355 nm with airborne High-Spectral-Resolution Lidar (HSRL) measurements at 532 nm and elastic backscatter lidar measurements at 1064 nm that were obtained less than 5 km apart from each other. This was the first study in which optical and microphysical retrievals from lidar were obtained during the day and directly compared to AERONET and in situ measurements for 11 cases. Good agreement was observed between lidar and AERONET retrievals. Larger discrepancies were observed between lidar retrievals and in situ measurements obtained by the aircraft and aerosol hygroscopic effects are believed to be the main factor in such discrepancies.Peer reviewe

Surface Dimming by the 2013 Rim Fire Simulated by a Sectional Aerosol Model

The Rim Fire of 2013, the third largest area burned by fire recorded in California history, is simulated by a climate model coupled with a size-resolved aerosol model. Modeled aerosol mass, number and particle size distribution are within variability of data obtained from multiple airborne in-situ measurements. Simulations suggest Rim Fire smoke may block 4-6 of sunlight energy reaching the surface, with a dimming efficiency around 120-150 W m(exp -2) per unit aerosol optical depth in the mid-visible at 13:00-15:00 local time. Underestimation of simulated smoke single scattering albedo at mid-visible by 0.04 suggests the model overestimates either the particle size or the absorption due to black carbon. This study shows that exceptional events like the 2013 Rim Fire can be simulated by a climate model with one-degree resolution with overall good skill, though that resolution is still not sufficient to resolve the smoke peak near the source region

Innovation and Access to Medicines for Neglected Populations: Could a Treaty Address a Broken Pharmaceutical R&D System?

As part of a cluster of articles leading up to the 2012 World Health Report and critically reflecting on the theme of “no health without research,” Suerie Moon and colleagues argue for a global health R&D treaty to improve innovation in new medicines and strengthening affordability, sustainable financing, efficiency in innovation, and equitable health-centered governance