How good are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach

This paper surveys existing factor forecast applications for real economic activity and inflation by means of a meta-analysis and contributes to the current debate on the determinants of the forecast performance of large-scale dynamic factor models relative to other models. We find that, on average, factor forecasts are slightly better than other models' forecasts. In particular, factor models tend to outperform small-scale models, whereas they perform slightly worse than alternative methods which are also able to exploit large datasets. Our results further suggest that factor forecasts are better for US than for UK macroeconomic variables, and that they are better for US than for euro-area output; however, there are no significant differences between the relative factor forecast performance for US and euro-area inflation. There is also some evidence that factor models are better suited to predict output at shorter forecast horizons than at longer horizons. These findings all relate to the forecasting environment (which cannot be influenced by the forecasters). Among the variables capturing the forecasting design (which can, by contrast, be influenced by the forecasters), the size of the dataset from which factors are extracted seems to positively affect the relative factor forecast performance. There is some evidence that quarterly data lend themselves better to factor forecasts than monthly data. Rolling forecasts are preferable to recursive forecasts. The factor estimation technique seems to matter as well. Other potential determinants - namely whether forecasters rely on a balanced or an unbalanced panel, whether restrictions implied by the factor structure are imposed in the forecasting equation or not and whether an iterated or a direct multi-step forecast is made - are found to be rather irrelevant. Moreover, we find no evidence that pre-selecting the variables to be included in the panel from which factors are extracted helped to improve factor forecasts in the past. --Factor models,forecasting,meta-analysis

Psychosocial health of asylum seeking women living in state-provided accommodation in Germany during pregnancy and early motherhood. A case study exploring the role of social determinants of health

Gewalt SC, Berger S, Ziegler S, Szecsenyi J, Bozorgmehr K. Psychosocial health of asylum seeking women living in state-provided accommodation in Germany during pregnancy and early motherhood. A case study exploring the role of social determinants of health. PLOS ONE. 2018;2018(12): e0208007

La conectividad un imperativo en la agenda educativa regional

La virtualidad de la educación durante la pandemia por COVID-19 ha revelado tres hechos: el acceso a la tecnología está condicionado por la situación económica de las familias, las escuelas están condicionadas por su categoría económica para facilitar el acceso de las TIC a los estudiantes y el nivel conectividad en la zona rural es menor que en la zona urbana. Concluye que la limitante en la conectividad para parte de la población incrementa la brecha tecnológica y educativa

Desregulamentação e personalização com escolas de elite: O trabalho dos professores para a consagração escolar dos setores privilegiados

The following article is based on a qualitative research developed in three Buenos Aires City and Buenos Aires Province high-schools that define themselves “elite educational institutions”.  Our purpose is to analyze the pedagogical work conducted by these institutions in relation to how they monitor their students’ trajectories and its examination systems. On the one hand, we identify strategies of personalization that account for an institutional set-up with close links between teachers and students, which enables them to overcome the hurdles to a system based on international exams. On the other, strategies of autonomy devolve to students’ responsibility for their own results, encouraging them to compete amongst themselves. These differences are connected to the academic selection systems established by each of the institutions. By inquiring into these dynamics, we have a better understanding of how these institutions function and how they contribute to the processes of socialization and reproduction of specific segments aimed at occupying elite positions. This paper also addresses the role played by the teachers as symbolic facilitators who, through their work, contribute to the selection of those groups.El presente artículo se basa en un estudio cualitativo desarrollado en tres escuelas secundarias de la Ciudad y la Provincia de Buenos Aires que se proclaman como formadoras de elite. La intención del mismo es analizar la labor pedagógica que desarrollan estas instituciones en base a las formas de promoción y acompañamiento que plantean a sus estudiantes. El trabajo identifica en las escuelas formas desreguladas en donde los alumnos quedan librados a sus propios recursos para transitar la escolaridad y estrategias de personalización previstas desde la instituciones que presuponen un mayor acompañamiento a los estudiantes. Estas diferencias están vinculadas con los sistemas de selección académica y promoción que sustentan los establecimientos. Por promoción de los estudiantes se hace referencia a los mecanismos institucionales que concretan la función selectiva que desempeñan las instituciones educativas. En este caso en particular se analizan los medios que estas escuelas instrumentan para seleccionar, diferenciar y legitimar a los estudiantes en escuelas orientadas a la preparación de los grupos selectos. Indagar estas dinámicas nos permite una aproximación al funcionamiento de estas instituciones y su contribución en los procesos de socialización y reproducción para la preparación de determinados sectores para la ocupación de posiciones de elite. En este trabajo se aborda además el papel que desarrollan los profesores en tanto operadores simbólicos que, mediante su trabajo, efectúan la labor de producir la consagración escolar de estos grupos en cuestión.Este artigo é baseado em um estudo qualitativo realizado em três escolas secundárias da cidade e da província de Buenos Aires que se definem como formadoras de elite. A intenção é analisar o trabalho pedagógico desenvolvido por essas instituições com base nas formas de promoção e acompanhamento de seus alunos. O trabalho identifica nas escolas formas desreguladas, em que os alunos são deixados aos seus próprios recursos para encaminhar sua escolarização, e estratégias de personalização fornecidas pelas instituições, que constituem uma maior assistência aos estudantes. Essas diferenças estão ligadas aos sistemas de seleção acadêmica e promoção que sustentam os estabelecimentos. Por promoção estudantil se faz referência aos mecanismos institucionais que concretizam o papel seletivo das instituições de ensino. Neste caso em particular analisam-se os meios que essas escolas utilizam para selecionar, diferenciar e legitimar os alunos de escolas orientadas para preparação de grupos seletos. Investigar essas dinâmicas nos permite uma aproximação ao funcionamento dessas instituições e de sua contribuição para os processos de socialização e reprodução na preparação de certos setores para a ocupação de posições de elite. Este trabalho também discute o papel desempenhado pelos professores como operadores simbólicos que, através de seu trabalho, produzem a consagração escolar dos grupos em questão

The Research Data Centre of the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW-FDZ)

Das Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) in Mannheim stellt eine Reihe seiner Forschungsdatensätze externen Wissenschaftlern zur Verfügung. Das ZEW folgt damit den Empfehlungen der „Kommission zur Verbesserung der informationellen Infrastruktur zwischen Wissenschaft und Statistik“ und unterstützt so die Weiterentwicklung der empirischen Wirtschafts- und Sozialforschung. Im November 2012 ist das ZEW-FDZ vom Rat für Sozial und Wirtschaftsdaten (RatSWD) akkreditiert worden. Bei den im ZEW-FDZ angebotenen ZEW Forschungsdaten handelt es sich um Mikrodaten von ZEW Unternehmensbefragungen, ZEW Expertenbefragungen oder ZEW Personenbefragungen. Die Daten einiger ZEW-Befragungen werden externen Wissenschaftlern in einer faktisch anonymisierten Form als Scientific-Use-Files zur Verfügung gestellt. Neben der Nutzung der Scientific-Use-Files können externe Forscher einen Antrag auf Nutzung von formal anonymisierten ZEW-Daten stellen, mit denen sie in den FDZ-Räumen des ZEW arbeiten dürfen. Formal anonymisiert bedeutet, dass die Datensätze weder Namen noch Adressen, aber ansonsten alle Originalangaben der Befragten enthalten. Die formal anonymisierten Daten befinden sich dazu auf einem Stand-alone-Rechner ohne Netzwerkanbindung, von dem keine Daten heruntergeladen werden können. Für das Mannheimer Innovationspanel (MIP) wurden zudem absolut anonymisierte Education-Use-Files für die Nutzung in der Lehre erstellt. Das ZEW-FDZ schließt an die bisherige Praxis des ZEW an, eigene Erhebungsdaten an externe Wissenschaftler weiterzugeben. Vor dem Start des ZEW-FDZ im Januar 2013, stellte das ZEW etwa 280 Wissenschaftlern vom ZEW erhobene Forschungsdaten zur Verfügung; die meisten sind Nutzer des Mannheimer Innovationspanels (250). Das ZEW wird sein Datenangebot für externe Wissenschaftler laufend erweitern. Dies gilt auch für Daten zukünftiger Erhebunge

The Development of Bridging and Bonding Social Capital Among Sudanese Refugees in Guilford County, North Carolina

Social capital is defined as the procurement of benefits through membership in certain social groups or networks. Bonding and bridging are two types of social capital development. Bonding social capital refers to that which develops within a social group, while bridging social capital development connects multiple groups (Portes 1998). The channels through which refugees arrive in the United States result in unique patterns of social capital development. In particular, the government organizations and volunteer agencies (VOLAGs) who resettle refugees impact social capital development greatly. In Guilford County, North Carolina, VOLAGs have resettled a number of Sudanese refugees. Through theoretical and archival research, meetings with resettlement agencies and other aid organizations, participant observation at various community functions, and interviews with refugees themselves, I examined the development of social capital for Sudanese refugees in Guilford County. In particular, I compared the types of social capital that northern Sudanese refugees developed with that which southern Sudanese refugees developed. The refugees who came originally from North Sudan tend to have a different experience from those who arrive from South Sudan. While most of the northern Sudanese refugees live in Greensboro, most southern Sudanese refugees live in High Point. Most northerners are Muslim, while southerners usually practice Christianity. These basic differences between the communities result in the development of different types of social capital for each of the groups

Génese de uma apropriação: o projeto «aprender a aprender» e a escola Waldorf Jardim do Monte, Portugal (1993-2005)

The article examines the origins of a Waldorfian process of appropriation at the Jardim do Monte primary school in Alhandra (Portugal) in the context of the ‘Learning to Learn’ teaching development project initiated in the 1990s. The study uses the concept of appropriation found in Certeau (1998, 2005), Chartier (1992,2002), Leontiev (2004), Ricoeur (1991), and Carvalho and Pintassilgo (2011), and the work of Magalhães (2004) on the history of educational institutions in Portugal. The research is based on a historiographical- educational methodology involving the analysis and interpretation of documents, images and oral testimonies. The school, which comprises pupils from preschool to senior primary level, was founded by a group of public school teachers who met at the ‘Projects Forum’ educational conference in 1991. Adaptations of pedagogical models, such as the Steiner method, tend to include changes, innovations and new experiences that require in-depth analysis and explanation.Desarrollamos reflexiones acerca de la génesis del proceso de Apropiación de la Pedagogía Waldorf en la Escuela Jardim do Monte, Alhandra (Portugal), por medio del proyecto de formación continua Aprender a Aprender (PAA), iniciado en 1990. La investigación recurrió al concepto de Apropiación de Certeau (1998, 2005), Chartier (1992,2002), Leontiev (2004), Ricoeur (1991), Carvalho y Pintassilgo (2011) y, para el estudio de las instituciones educativas, a Magalhães (2004). Se buscó una perspectiva historiográfica educativa, a través del análisis e interpretación de fuentes documentales, iconográficas y testimonios orales. La génesis de esta escuela, del Jardín de Infancia al 2º ciclo de enseñanza básica, se remonta a un grupo de profesoras de escuelas públicas, del 1er ciclo a la enseñanza secundaria, que se conocieron en un Encuentro de Educación, Foro de Proyectos, en 1991. Las reinterpretaciones de modelos pedagógicos, como el steineriano, tienden a materializarse en reelaboraciones, inspirando innovaciones y experiencias que suscitan la necesidad de un estudio y comprensión más profundos.Desenvolvemos reflexións acerca da xénese do proceso de Apropiación da Pedagoxía Waldorf na Escola Jardim do Monte, Alhandra (Portugal), por medio do proxecto de formación continua Aprender a Aprender (PAA), iniciado en 1990. A investigación recorreu ao concepto de Apropiación de Certeau (1998, 2005), Chartier (1992,2002), Leontiev (2004), Ricoeur (1991), Carvalho e Pintassilgo (2011) e, para o estudo das institucións educativas, a Magalhães (2004). Buscouse unha perspectiva historiográfica educativa, a través da análise e interpretación de fontes documentais, iconográficas e testemuños orais. A xénese desta escola, do Xardín de Infancia ao 2º ciclo de ensino básico, remóntase a un grupo de profesoras de escolas públicas, do 1er ciclo ao ensino secundario, que se coñeceron nun Encontro de Educación, Foro de Proxectos, en 1991. As reinterpretacións de modelos pedagóxicos, como o steineriano, tenden a materializarse en reelaboracións, inspirando innovacións e experiencias que suscitan a necesidade dun estudo e comprensión máis profundos.Desenvolvemos reflexões acerca da génese do processo de Apropriação da Pedagogia Waldorf na Escola Jardim do Monte, Alhandra (Portugal), por meio do projeto de formação contínua Aprender a Aprender (PAA), iniciado nos 1990. A investigação recorreu ao conceito de Apropriação de Certeau (1998, 2005), Chartier (1992,2002), Leontiev (2004), Ricoeur (1991), Carvalho e Pintassilgo (2011) e, para o estudo das instituições educativas, a Magalhães (2004). Procurou-se uma perspetiva historiográfica educativa, através da análise e interpretação de fontes documentais, iconográficas e  estemunhos orais. A génese desta escola, do Jardim de Infância ao 2.º ciclo de ensino básico, remonta a um grupo de professoras de escolas públicas, do 1.º ciclo ao ensino secundário, que se conheceram num Encontro de Educação, Fórum de Projetos, em 1991. As reinterpretações de modelos pedagógicos, como o steineriano, tendem a avançar em reelaborações, inspirando inovações e experiências que suscitam a necessidade de um estudo e compreensão aprofundados

Scale‐invariance of albedo‐based wind friction velocity

Obtaining reliable estimates of aerodynamic roughness is necessary to interpret and accurately predict aeolian sediment transport dynamics. However, inherent uncertainties in field measurements and models of surface aerodynamic properties continue to undermine aeolian research, monitoring, and dust modeling. A new relation between aerodynamic shelter and land surface shadow has been established at the wind tunnel scale, enabling the potential for estimates of wind erosion and dust emission to be obtained across scales from albedo data. Here, we compare estimates of wind friction velocity (u * ) derived from traditional methods (wind speed profiles) with those derived from the albedo model at two separate scales using bare soil patch (via net radiometers) and landscape (via MODIS 500 m) datasets. Results show that profile‐derived estimates of u * are highly variable in anisotropic surface roughness due to changes in wind direction and fetch. Wind speed profiles poorly estimate soil surface (bed) wind friction velocities necessary for aeolian sediment transport research and modeling. Albedo‐based estimates of u * at both scales have small variability because the estimate is integrated over a defined, fixed area and resolves the partition of wind momentum between roughness elements and the soil surface. We demonstrate that the wind tunnel‐based calibration of albedo for predicting wind friction velocities at the soil surface (u s* ) is applicable across scales. The albedo‐based approach enables consistent and reliable drag partition correction across scales for model and field estimates of u s* necessary for wind erosion and dust emission modeling

Systematische Evaluation von Pflegedokumentationssystemen - Studienprotokoll und Ergebnisse -

Seit Jahren besteht der Wunsch, im Bereich der Pflegeprozeßdokumentation Rechner einzusetzen, um so die Qualität der Pflegedokumentation zu erhöhen, Aufwände zu reduzieren, und Auswertungsmöglich-keiten zu verbessern. Aufgrund des bisher geringen Einsatzes fehlen aber kontrollierte Evaluationsstudien. Daher wurde eine solche am Universitätsklinikum Heidelberg durchgeführt. Hierfür wurde das rechnergestützte Pflegedokumentationssystem ?PIK? auf einer Modellstation der Psychiatrischen Universitätsklinik eingeführt und in einer 4-monatigen Studie (Okt. 98 - Jan. 99) evaluiert. In der Studie sollte z.B. geklärt werden, welchen Einfluß die Einführung des rechnergestützten Pflegedo-kumentationssystems auf die zeitlichen Abläufe und die Qualität der Pflegedokumentation hat und wie sich die Akzeptanz von Pflegeprozeß und Computern in der Pflege ändert. In die randomisierte, kontrollierte Studie zum Vergleich des rechnergestützten Pflegedokumentationssystems PIK mit dem bisherigen konventionellen Pflegedokumentationssystems wurde die Pflegedokumentation von insgesamt 60 Patienten aufgenommen, welche in eine der beiden Gruppen randomisiert wurden. Die Datenerhebungen erfolgten durch Fragebögen, durch Zeitmessungen, durch Interviews sowie durch Qualitätschecklisten. In der Studie konnten keine inhaltlichen Qualitätsunterschiede zwischen der Testgruppe und der Kontrollgruppe gezeigt werden. Eine deutliche Verbesserung von Lesbarkeit und Vollständigkeit war aber sichtbar. Gleichzeitig war der Zeitbedarf für die Pflegeplanung in der Testgruppe niedriger, für Pflege-dokumentation und Berichtschreibung höher. Die Akzeptanz des Pflegeprozesses sowie des Einsatzes von Computern in der Pflege stieg während der Studie an. Die Mehrheit der Benutzer wollte am Ende der Studie weiterhin mit einem rechnergestützten Pflegedokumentationssystem wie PIK arbeiten