Seasonal variation of overall and cardiovascular mortality: a study in 19 countries from different geographic locations.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) mortality has been shown to follow a seasonal pattern. Several studies suggested several possible determinants of this pattern, including misclassification of causes of deaths. We aimed at assessing seasonality in overall, CVD, cancer and non-CVD/non-cancer mortality using data from 19 countries from different latitudes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Monthly mortality data were compiled from 19 countries, amounting to over 54 million deaths. We calculated ratios of the observed to the expected numbers of deaths in the absence of a seasonal pattern. Seasonal variation (peak to nadir difference) for overall and cause-specific (CVD, cancer or non-CVD/non-cancer) mortality was analyzed using the cosinor function model. Mortality from overall, CVD and non-CVD/non-cancer showed a consistent seasonal pattern. In both hemispheres, the number of deaths was higher than expected in winter. In countries close to the Equator the seasonal pattern was considerably lower for mortality from any cause. For CVD mortality, the peak to nadir differences ranged from 0.185 to 0.466 in the Northern Hemisphere, from 0.087 to 0.108 near the Equator, and from 0.219 to 0.409 in the Southern Hemisphere. For cancer mortality, the seasonal variation was nonexistent in most countries. CONCLUSIONS: In countries with seasonal variation, mortality from overall, CVD and non-CVD/non-cancer show a seasonal pattern with mortality being higher in winter than in summer. Conversely, cancer mortality shows no substantial seasonality

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. INTERPRETATION: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust

Epidemiology of physical activity in adult Polish population in the second decade of the 21st century. Results of the NATPOL 2011 study

Objectives: The aim of the study was to assess physical activity (PA) level in a representative sample of Polish adults.Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional analysis was performed among 2413 randomly selected individuals (51.5% women) aged 18-79 years, who participated in the Nationwide Study of Occurrence of Risk Factors of Cardiovascular Diseases NATPOL 2011 (March-July 2011). The study procedures consisted of a questionnaire as well as of anthropometric, blood pressure and biochemical measurements. Leisure-time, occupational and commuting PA were assessed by the use of a questionnaire interview. Results: About 48.2% of adults do exercise for at least 30 minutes on most days of a week. About 11% of the respondents declare a sedentary lifestyle. About 26.5% of working population report hard physical work, while sedentary work is reported by 47.6% of the employed participants. Active commuting is declared by 27.3% of working/studying population. About 47.2%, 36.6%, and 15.3% spend 30 min per day, respectively, on this kind of PA. Conclusions: PA level of more than half of Polish adults is still not satisfactory. Promotion of an active lifestyle should concern mainly leisure-time and commuting PA with paying special attention to substantial differences in various socio-demographic groups

National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio: a pooled analysis of 458 population-based studies in Asian and Western countries

Background Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease, multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries. Methods We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group. Results Since ∼1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, the TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, at ∼0.4 mmol/L per decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as ∼0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to ∼26% decline in coronary heart disease risk per decade). The ratio increased in China. Conclusions HDL cholesterol has risen and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only a weak correlation with changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol

The Rise and Fall of Hypertension: Lessons Learned from Eastern Europe

Hypertension is a progressive cardiovascular syndrome that arises from many differing, but interrelated, etiologies. Hypertension is the most prevalent cardiovascular disorder, affecting 20% to 50% of the adult population in developed countries. Arterial hypertension is a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and death. Epidemiologic data have shown that control of hypertension is achieved in only a small percentage of hypertensive patients. Findings from the World Health Organization project Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Diseases (MONICA) showed a remarkably high prevalence (about 65%) of hypertension in Eastern Europeans. There is virtually no difference however, between the success rate in controlling hypertension when comparing Eastern and Western European populations. Diagnosing hypertension depends on both population awareness of the dangers of hypertension and medical interventions aimed at the detecting elevated blood pressure, even in asymptomatic patients. Medical compliance with guidelines for the treatment of hypertension is variable throughout Eastern Europe. Prevalence of hypertension increases with age, and the management of hypertension in elderly is a significant problem. The treatment of hypertension demands a comprehensive approach to the patient with regard to cardiovascular risk and individualization of hypertensive therapy

Hyper-IgG4 disease: report and characterisation of a new disease

BACKGROUND: We highlight a chronic inflammatory disease we call 'hyper-IgG4 disease', which has many synonyms depending on the organ involved, the country of origin and the year of the report. It is characterized histologically by a lymphoplasmacytic inflammation with IgG4-positive cells and exuberant fibrosis, which leaves dense fibrosis on resolution. A typical example is idiopathic retroperitoneal fibrosis, but the initial report in 2001 was of sclerosing pancreatitis. METHODS: We report an index case with fever and severe systemic disease. We have also reviewed the histology of 11 further patients with idiopathic retroperitoneal fibrosis for evidence of IgG4-expressing plasma cells, and examined a wide range of other inflammatory conditions and fibrotic diseases as organ-specific controls. We have reviewed the published literature for disease associations with idiopathic, systemic fibrosing conditions and the synonyms: pseudotumour, myofibroblastic tumour, plasma cell granuloma, systemic fibrosis, xanthofibrogranulomatosis, and multifocal fibrosclerosis. RESULTS: Histology from all 12 patients showed, to varying degrees, fibrosis, intense inflammatory cell infiltration with lymphocytes, plasma cells, scattered neutrophils, and sometimes eosinophilic aggregates, with venulitis and obliterative arteritis. The majority of lymphocytes were T cells that expressed CD8 and CD4, with scattered B-cell-rich small lymphoid follicles. In all cases, there was a significant increase in IgG4-positive plasma cells compared with controls. In two cases, biopsies before and after steroid treatment were available, and only scattered plasma cells were seen after treatment, none of them expressing IgG4. Review of the literature shows that although pathology commonly appears confined to one organ, patients can have systemic symptoms and fever. In the active period, there is an acute phase response with a high serum concentration of IgG, and during this phase, there is a rapid clinical response to glucocorticoid steroid treatment. CONCLUSION: We believe that hyper-IgG4 disease is an important condition to recognise, as the diagnosis can be readily verified and the outcome with treatment is very good

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29–39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance