The investigation of time dependent flame structure by ionization probes

Ionization probes were used to measure mean ionization current and frequency spectra, auto-correlations and cross-correlations in jet flames with variation in the initial Reynolds numbers and equivalence ratios. Special attention was paid to the transitional region between the burner exit plane and the plane of onset of turbulence

On modeling player fitness in training for team sports with application to professional rugby

It is increasingly important for professional sports teams to monitor player fitness in order to optimize performance. Models have been put forward linking fitness in training to performance in competition but rely on regular measurements of player fitness. As formal tests for measuring player fitness are typically time-consuming and inconvenient, measurements are taken infrequently. As such, it may be challenging to accurately predict performance in competition as player fitness is unknown.Alternatively, other data, such as how the players are feeling, may be measured more regularly. This data, however, may be biased as players may answer the questions differently and these differences may dominate the data. Linear Mixed Methods and Support Vector Machines were used to estimate player fitness from available covariates at times when explicit measures of fitness are unavailable. Using data provided by Glasgow Warriors Rugby Club, a case study was used to illustrate the application and value of these models. Both models performed well with R2 values ranging from 60% to 85%, demonstrating that the models largely captured the biases introduced by individual players

In situ tropical peatland ire emission factors and their variability, as determined by field measurements in peninsula Malaysia

Fires in tropical peatlands account for >25% of estimated total greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and degradation. Despite significant global and regional impacts, our understanding of specific gaseous fire emission factors (EFs) from tropical peat burning is limited to a handful of studies. Furthermore, there is substantial variability in EFs between sampled fires and/or studies. For example, methane EFs vary by 91% between studies. Here we present new fire EFs for the tropical peatland ecosystem; the first EFs measured for Malaysian peatlands, and only the second comprehensive study of EFs in this crucial environment. During August 2015 (under El Niño conditions) and July 2016, we embarked on field campaigns to measure gaseous emissions at multiple peatland fires burning on deforested land in Southeast Pahang (2015) and oil palm plantations in North Selangor (2016), Peninsula Malaysia. Gaseous emissions were measured using open-path Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The IR spectra were used to retrieve mole fractions of 12 different gases present within the smoke (including carbon dioxide and methane), and these measurements used to calculate EFs. Peat samples were taken at each burn site for physicochemical analysis and to explore possible relationships between specific physicochemical properties and fire EFs. Here we present the first evidence to indicate that substrate bulk density affects methane fire EFs reported here. This novel explanation of interplume, within-biome variability, should be considered by those undertaking greenhouse gas accounting and haze forecasting in this region and is of importance to peatland management, particularly with respect to artificial compaction

Comparison of the paper-based and electronic versions of the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI): evidence of equivalence

BACKGROUND: The use of patient-reported outcome measures in electronic format has been increasing. However, these formats are usually not validated or compared to the original paper-based formats, so there is no evidence that they are completed in the same way. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to compare the conventional paper version and a web-based application version (iPad® ) of the DLQI to assess equivalence of scores. METHODS: The study employed a randomized cross-over design using a within-subjects comparison of the two formats of the questionnaire. International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) guidelines were followed. Subjects aged over 18 years with any confirmed skin condition were recruited from a teaching hospital dermatology outpatient clinic. Expected Intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was 0.9 (α = 0.05) RESULTS: A total of 104 patients were recruited, median age=53.5 years (IQR=37.3-67.8, 43% male). The Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) showed high concordance between the total DLQI scores from paper and iPad® versions (ICC = 0.98; 95% CI 0.97-0.99). Patients took a median of 78 seconds to complete the electronic version and 73 seconds for paper (p=0.008): 76% preferred the electronic version and perceived completion to take a shorter time. CONCLUSIONS: There is high concordance, and thus equivalence, between the iPad and paper versions of the DLQI, with an ICC of 0.98, and a clear patient preference for the iPad version

Parent and child agreement for acute stress disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder and other psychopathology in a prospective study of children and adolescents exposed to single-event trauma

Examining parent-child agreement for Acute Stress Disorder (ASD) and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) in children and adolescents is essential for informing the assessment of trauma-exposed children, yet no studies have examined this relationship using appropriate statistical techniques. Parent-child agreement for these disorders was examined by structured interview in a prospective study of assault and motor vehicle accident (MVA) child survivors, assessed at 2-4 weeks and 6 months post-trauma. Children were significantly more likely to meet criteria for ASD, as well as other ASD and PTSD symptom clusters, based on their own report than on their parent's report. Parent-child agreement for ASD was poor (Cohen's κ = -.04), but fair for PTSD (Cohen's κ = .21). Agreement ranged widely for other emotional disorders (Cohen's κ = -.07-.64), with generalised anxiety disorder found to have superior parent-child agreement (when assessed by phi coefficients) relative to ASD and PTSD. The findings support the need to directly interview children and adolescents, particularly for the early screening of posttraumatic stress, and suggest that other anxiety disorders may have a clearer presentation post-trauma

The Size Variance Relationship of Business Firm Growth Rates

The relationship between the size and the variance of firm growth rates is known to follow an approximate power-law behavior $\sigma(S) \sim S^{-\beta(S)}$ where $S$ is the firm size and $\beta(S)\approx 0.2$ is an exponent weakly dependent on $S$. Here we show how a model of proportional growth which treats firms as classes composed of various number of units of variable size, can explain this size-variance dependence. In general, the model predicts that $\beta(S)$ must exhibit a crossover from $\beta(0)=0$ to $\beta(\infty)=1/2$. For a realistic set of parameters, $\beta(S)$ is approximately constant and can vary in the range from 0.14 to 0.2 depending on the average number of units in the firm. We test the model with a unique industry specific database in which firm sales are given in terms of the sum of the sales of all their products. We find that the model is consistent with the empirically observed size-variance relationship

Rank Statistics in Biological Evolution

We present a statistical analysis of biological evolution processes. Specifically, we study the stochastic replication-mutation-death model where the population of a species may grow or shrink by birth or death, respectively, and additionally, mutations lead to the creation of new species. We rank the various species by the chronological order by which they originate. The average population N_k of the kth species decays algebraically with rank, N_k ~ M^{mu} k^{-mu}, where M is the average total population. The characteristic exponent mu=(alpha-gamma)/(alpha+beta-gamma)$ depends on alpha, beta, and gamma, the replication, mutation, and death rates. Furthermore, the average population P_k of all descendants of the kth species has a universal algebraic behavior, P_k ~ M/k.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Dynamics on expanding spaces: modeling the emergence of novelties

Novelties are part of our daily lives. We constantly adopt new technologies, conceive new ideas, meet new people, experiment with new situations. Occasionally, we as individuals, in a complicated cognitive and sometimes fortuitous process, come up with something that is not only new to us, but to our entire society so that what is a personal novelty can turn into an innovation at a global level. Innovations occur throughout social, biological and technological systems and, though we perceive them as a very natural ingredient of our human experience, little is known about the processes determining their emergence. Still the statistical occurrence of innovations shows striking regularities that represent a starting point to get a deeper insight in the whole phenomenology. This paper represents a small step in that direction, focusing on reviewing the scientific attempts to effectively model the emergence of the new and its regularities, with an emphasis on more recent contributions: from the plain Simon's model tracing back to the 1950s, to the newest model of Polya's urn with triggering of one novelty by another. What seems to be key in the successful modelling schemes proposed so far is the idea of looking at evolution as a path in a complex space, physical, conceptual, biological, technological, whose structure and topology get continuously reshaped and expanded by the occurrence of the new. Mathematically it is very interesting to look at the consequences of the interplay between the "actual" and the "possible" and this is the aim of this short review.Comment: 25 pages, 10 figure

Critical and Near-Critical Branching Processes

Scale-free dynamics in physical and biological systems can arise from a variety of causes. Here, we explore a branching process which leads to such dynamics. We find conditions for the appearance of power laws and study quantitatively what happens to these power laws when such conditions are violated. From a branching process model, we predict the behavior of two systems which seem to exhibit near scale-free behavior--rank-frequency distributions of number of subtaxa in biology, and abundance distributions of genotypes in an artificial life system. In the light of these, we discuss distributions of avalanche sizes in the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model.Comment: 9 pages LaTex with 10 PS figures. v.1 of this paper contains results from non-critical sandpile simulations that were excised from the published versio