Official Interventions and Occasional Violations of Uncovered Interest Party in the Dollar-DM Market

This paper presents a model of exchange rate determination in which the forward premium anomaly emerges as the result of unanticipated central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market. Deviations from uncovered interest parity (UIP) therefore represent neither unexploited profit opportunities nor compensation for bearing risk. In simulations, the model generates a forward premium anomaly and matches several other notable features of US-German data. Additional empirical support is obtained from an analysis of Fed and Bundesbank interventions in the dollar--DM market where it is found that the forward premium anomaly intensifies during those times when a central bank intervenes.

Official Interventions and Occasional Violations of Uncovered Interest Parity in the Dollar-DM Market

This paper presents a model of exchange rate determination in which the forward premium anomaly emerges as the result of unanticipated central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market. Deviations from uncovered interest parity (UIP) therefore represent neither unexploited profit opportunities nor compensation for bearing risk. In simulations, the model generates a forward premium anomaly and matches several other notable features of US-German data. Additional empirical support is obtained from an analysis of Fed and Bundesbank interventions in the dollar—DM market where it is found that the forward premium anomaly intensifies during those times when a central bank intervenesForward premium anomaly, foreign exchange intervention

Unbiased Estimation of the Half-Life to PPP Convergence in Panel Data

Three potential sources of bias present complications for estimating the half-life of purchasing power parity deviations from panel data. They are the bias associated with inapproiate aggregation across heterogeneous coefficients, time aggregation of commodity prices, and downward bias in estimation of dynamic lag coefficients. Each of these biases have been addressed individually in the literature. In this paper, we address all three biases in arriving at our estimates. Analyzing an annual panel data set of real exchange rates for 21 OECD countries from 1948 to 2002, our point estimate of the half-life is 5.5 years.

Bias Reduction by Recursive Mean Adjustment in Dynamic Panel Data Models

Accurate estimation of the dominant root of a stationary but persistent time series are required to determine the speed at which economic time series, such as real exchange rates or interest rates, adjust towards their mean values. In practice, accuracy is hampered by downward small- sample bias. Recursive mean adjustment has been found to be a useful bias reduction strategy in the regression context. In this paper, we study recursive mean adjustment in dynamic panel data models. When there exists cross-sectional heterogeneity in the dominant root, the recursive mean adjusted SUR estimator is appropriate. When homogeneity restrictions can be imposed, a pooled recursive mean adjusted GLS estimator with fixed e¤ects is the desired estimator. Application of these techniques to a small panel of five eurocurrency rates finds that these interest rates are unit root nonstationary as the bias-corrected autoregressive coefficient exceeds 1.Small sample bias, Recursive mean adjustment, Panel Data, Cross-sectional dependence, Interest rate dynamics

The Content and Role of Web Sites in Public Relations of Religious Congregations

This study presents an analysis of the content of Web sites belonging to local religious congregations. The study included a quantitative content analysis of the Web sites of 120 local congregations, which represented 12 different religious organizations. These religious organizations were all members of the Religious Communicators Council organization. Results of the study emphasized the basic content and functions of the Web sites. Overall, this study found that 43.3% of the Web sites were used for informational purposes only. For example, a few of the most prevalent variables on the Web sites were the general contact information, staff information, e-mail addresses, worship service times, and special events times. In regards, to the functions of the Web sites, the most prevalent features were a part of the usability function of the site. For instance 100% of the sites had minimal unwanted ads and minimal downloading times. The variables were coded into three main audiences: internal, external and media. The results indicated that the sites did not target any of the audiences specifically. The findings further suggest that the local congregations have not been using the Web sites to their maximum potential. Furthermore, only one Web site of out 120 demonstrated the two-way asymmetrical model of public relations in terms of the Web content and functions. And none of the sites practiced the two-way symmetrical model, considered to be the most effective model of public relations to use. On the other hand, 64 of the Web sites practiced multiple models of public relations, thereby confirming the theory of contingency. The contingency theory suggests that the public relations models are too rigid and that one model is not sufficient. Yet, the Web sites suggest more traditional or historical aspect of public relations on the hybrid continuum of public relations models

Optimal aeroassisted orbital transfer with plane change using collocation and nonlinear programming

The fuel optimal control problem arising in the non-planar orbital transfer employing aeroassisted technology is addressed. The mission involves the transfer from high energy orbit (HEO) to low energy orbit (LEO) with orbital plane change. The basic strategy here is to employ a combination of propulsive maneuvers in space and aerodynamic maneuvers in the atmosphere. The basic sequence of events for the aeroassisted HEO to LEO transfer consists of three phases. In the first phase, the orbital transfer begins with a deorbit impulse at HEO which injects the vehicle into an elliptic transfer orbit with perigee inside the atmosphere. In the second phase, the vehicle is optimally controlled by lift and bank angle modulations to perform the desired orbital plane change and to satisfy heating constraints. Because of the energy loss during the turn, an impulse is required to initiate the third phase to boost the vehicle back to the desired LEO orbital altitude. The third impulse is then used to circularize the orbit at LEO. The problem is solved by a direct optimization technique which uses piecewise polynomial representation for the state and control variables and collocation to satisfy the differential equations. This technique converts the optimal control problem into a nonlinear programming problem which is solved numerically. Solutions were obtained for cases with and without heat constraints and for cases of different orbital inclination changes. The method appears to be more powerful and robust than other optimization methods. In addition, the method can handle complex dynamical constraints

Electromagnetic Coulomb Gas with Vector Charges and "Elastic'' Potentials : Renormalization Group Equations

We present a detailed derivation of the renormalization group equations for two dimensional electromagnetic Coulomb gases whose charges lie on a triangular lattice (magnetic charges) and its dual (electric charges). The interactions between the charges involve both angular couplings and a new electromagnetic potential. This motivates the denomination of ``elastic'' Coulomb gas. Such elastic Coulomb gases arise naturally in the study of the continuous melting transition of two dimensional solids coupled to a substrate, either commensurate or with quenched disorder

POLICY DEVELOPMENTS IN UNITED STATES AGRICULTURE SINCE 1986

Agricultural and Food Policy,