Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

Systematic analysis of disease-specific immunological signatures in patients with febrile illness from Saudi Arabia

10.1002/cti2.1163Clinical and Translational Immunology98e116

Using self-organizing maps to investigate environmental factors regulating colony size and breeding success of the White Stork (Ciconia ciconia)

We studied variations in the size of breeding colonies and in breeding performance of White Storks Ciconia ciconia in 2006–2008 in north-east Algeria. Each colony site was characterized using 12 environmental variables describing the physical environment, land-cover categories, and human activities, and by three demographic parameters: the number of breeding pairs, the number of pairs with chicks, and the number of fledged chicks per pair. Generalized linear mixed models and the self-organizing map algorithm (SOM, neural network) were used to investigate effects of biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic factors on demographic parameters and on their relationships. Numbers of breeding pairs and of pairs with chicks were affected by the same environmental factors, mainly anthropogenic, which differed from those affecting the number of fledged chicks per pair. Numbers of fledged chicks per pair was not affected by colony size or by the number of nests with chicks. The categorization of the environmental variables into natural and anthropogenic, in connection with demographic parameters, was relevant to detect factors explaining variation in colony size and breeding parameters. The SOM proved a relevant tool to help determine actual dynamics in White Stork colonies, and thus to support effective conservation decisions at a regional scale

Telomere disruption results in non-random formation of de novo dicentric chromosomes involving acrocentric human chromosomes

Copyright: © 2010 Stimpson et al.Genome rearrangement often produces chromosomes with two centromeres (dicentrics) that are inherently unstable because of bridge formation and breakage during cell division. However, mammalian dicentrics, and particularly those in humans, can be quite stable, usually because one centromere is functionally silenced. Molecular mechanisms of centromere inactivation are poorly understood since there are few systems to experimentally create dicentric human chromosomes. Here, we describe a human cell culture model that enriches for de novo dicentrics. We demonstrate that transient disruption of human telomere structure non-randomly produces dicentric fusions involving acrocentric chromosomes. The induced dicentrics vary in structure near fusion breakpoints and like naturally-occurring dicentrics, exhibit various inter-centromeric distances. Many functional dicentrics persist for months after formation. Even those with distantly spaced centromeres remain functionally dicentric for 20 cell generations. Other dicentrics within the population reflect centromere inactivation. In some cases, centromere inactivation occurs by an apparently epigenetic mechanism. In other dicentrics, the size of the alpha-satellite DNA array associated with CENP-A is reduced compared to the same array before dicentric formation. Extrachromosomal fragments that contained CENP-A often appear in the same cells as dicentrics. Some of these fragments are derived from the same alpha-satellite DNA array as inactivated centromeres. Our results indicate that dicentric human chromosomes undergo alternative fates after formation. Many retain two active centromeres and are stable through multiple cell divisions. Others undergo centromere inactivation. This event occurs within a broad temporal window and can involve deletion of chromatin that marks the locus as a site for CENP-A maintenance/replenishment.This work was supported by the Tumorzentrum Heidelberg/Mannheim grant (D.10026941)and by March of Dimes Research Foundation grant #1-FY06-377 and NIH R01 GM069514

Outcome Predictors of Pediatric Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation

Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) allows clinicians to potentially rescue pediatric patients unresponsive to traditional cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). Clinical and laboratory variables predictive of survival to hospital discharge are beginning to emerge. In this retrospective, historical cohort case series, clinical, and laboratory data from 31 pediatric patients (<21 years of age) receiving ECPR from March 2000 to April 2006 at our university-affiliated, tertiary-care children’s hospital were statistically analyzed in an attempt to identify variables predictive of survival to hospital discharge. Seven patients survived to hospital discharge (23%), and 24 patients died. Survival was independent of gender, age, and CPR duration. ECPR survival was, however, associated with a lower pre-ECPR phosphorus concentration (P = 0.002) and a lower pre-ECPR creatinine concentration (P = 0.05). A classification tree analysis, using, in part, a pre-ECPR phosphorus concentration threshold and a CPR ABG base excess concentration threshold, yielded a 96% nominal accuracy of predicting survival to hospital discharge or death. A large, multicenter, prospective cohort study aimed at validating these predictive variables is needed to guide appropriate ECPR patient selection. This study reveals the potential survival benefit of ECPR for pediatric patients, regardless of CPR duration prior to ECPR cannulation

Evaluating the Quality of Research into a Single Prognostic Biomarker: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of 83 Studies of C-Reactive Protein in Stable Coronary Artery Disease

Background Systematic evaluations of the quality of research on a single prognostic biomarker are rare. We sought to evaluate the quality of prognostic research evidence for the association of C-reactive protein (CRP) with fatal and nonfatal events among patients with stable coronary disease. Methods and Findings We searched MEDLINE (1966 to 2009) and EMBASE (1980 to 2009) and selected prospective studies of patients with stable coronary disease, reporting a relative risk for the association of CRP with death and nonfatal cardiovascular events. We included 83 studies, reporting 61,684 patients and 6,485 outcome events. No study reported a prespecified statistical analysis protocol; only two studies reported the time elapsed (in months or years) between initial presentation of symptomatic coronary disease and inclusion in the study. Studies reported a median of seven items (of 17) from the REMARK reporting guidelines, with no evidence of change over time. The pooled relative risk for the top versus bottom third of CRP distribution was 1.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.78–2.17), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 79.5). Only 13 studies adjusted for conventional risk factors (age, sex, smoking, obesity, diabetes, and low-density lipoprotein [LDL] cholesterol) and these had a relative risk of 1.65 (95% CI 1.39–1.96), I2 = 33.7. Studies reported ten different ways of comparing CRP values, with weaker relative risks for those based on continuous measures. Adjusting for publication bias (for which there was strong evidence, Egger's p<0.001) using a validated method reduced the relative risk to 1.19 (95% CI 1.13–1.25). Only two studies reported a measure of discrimination (c-statistic). In 20 studies the detection rate for subsequent events could be calculated and was 31% for a 10% false positive rate, and the calculated pooled c-statistic was 0.61 (0.57–0.66). Conclusion Multiple types of reporting bias, and publication bias, make the magnitude of any independent association between CRP and prognosis among patients with stable coronary disease sufficiently uncertain that no clinical practice recommendations can be made. Publication of prespecified statistical analytic protocols and prospective registration of studies, among other measures, might help improve the quality of prognostic biomarker research

Mutation analysis of SDHB and SDHC: novel germline mutations in sporadic head and neck paraganglioma and familial paraganglioma and/or pheochromocytoma

BACKGROUND: Germline mutations of the SDHD, SDHB and SDHC genes, encoding three of the four subunits of succinate dehydrogenase, are a major cause of hereditary paraganglioma and pheochromocytoma, and demonstrate that these genes are classic tumor suppressors. Succinate dehydrogenase is a heterotetrameric protein complex and a component of both the Krebs cycle and the mitochondrial respiratory chain (succinate:ubiquinone oxidoreductase or complex II). METHODS: Using conformation sensitive gel electrophoresis (CSGE) and direct DNA sequencing to analyse genomic DNA from peripheral blood lymphocytes, here we describe the mutation analysis of the SDHB and SDHC genes in 37 patients with sporadic (i.e. no known family history) head and neck paraganglioma and five pheochromocytoma and/or paraganglioma families. RESULTS: Two sporadic patients were found to have a SDHB splice site mutation in intron 4, c.423+1G>A, which produces a mis-spliced transcript with a 54 nucleotide deletion, resulting in an 18 amino acid in-frame deletion. A third patient was found to carry the c.214C>T (p.Arg72Cys) missense mutation in exon 4 of SDHC, which is situated in a highly conserved protein motif that constitutes the quinone-binding site of the succinate: ubiquinone oxidoreductase (SQR) complex in E. coli. Together with our previous results, we found 27 germline mutations of SDH genes in 95 cases (28%) of sporadic head and neck paraganglioma. In addition all index patients of five families showing hereditary pheochromocytoma-paraganglioma were found to carry germline mutations of SDHB: four of which were novel, c.343C>T (p.Arg115X), c.141G>A (p.Trp47X), c.281G>A (p.Arg94Lys), and c.653G>C (p.Trp218Ser), and one reported previously, c.136C>T, p.Arg46X. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, these data indicate that germline mutations of SDHB and SDHC play a minor role in sporadic head and neck paraganglioma and further underline the importance of germline SDHB mutations in cases of familial pheochromocytoma-paraganglioma