Peak positions and shapes in neutron pair correlation functions from powders of highly anisotropic crystals

The effect of the powder average on the peak shapes and positions in neutron pair distribution functions of polycrystalline materials is examined. It is shown that for highly anisotropic crystals, the powder average leads to shifts in peak positions and to non-Gaussian peak shapes. The peak shifts can be as large as several percent of the lattice spacing

Application of the random encounter model in citizen science projects to monitor animal densities

Abundance and density are vital metrics for assessing a species’ conservation status and for developing effective management strategies. Remote-sensing cameras are being used increasingly as part of citizen science projects to monitor wildlife, but current methodologies to monitor densities pose challenges when animals are not individually recognisable. We investigate the use of camera traps and the Random Encounter Model (REM) for estimating the density of West European hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) within a citizen science framework. We evaluate the use of a simplified version of the REM in terms of the parameters’ estimation (averaged versus survey-specific) and asses it’s potential application as part of a large-scale, long-term citizen science project. We compare averaged REM estimates to those obtained via Spatial Capture-Recapture (SCR) using data from nocturnal spotlight surveys. There was a high degree of concordance in REM-derived density estimates from averaged parameters versus those derived from survey-specific parameters. Averaged REM density estimates were also comparable to those produced by SCR at 8 out of 9 sites; hedgehog density was 7.5 times higher in urban (32.3 km-2) versus rural (4.3 km2) sites. Power analyses indicated that the averaged REM approach would be able to detect a 25% change in hedgehog density in both habitats with >90% power. Furthermore, despite the high start-up costs associated with the REM method, it would be cost-effective in the long term. The averaged REM approach is a promising solution to the challenge of large-scale and long-term species monitoring. We suggest including the REM as part of a citizen science monitoring project, where participants collect data and researchers verify and implement the required analysis

Spatial partial identity model reveals low densities of leopard and spotted hyaena in a miombo woodland

Decline in global carnivore populations has led to increased demand for assessment of carnivore densities in understudied habitats. Spatial capture–recapture (SCR) is used increasingly to estimate species densities, where individuals are often identified from their unique pelage patterns. However, uncertainty in bilateral individual identification can lead to the omission of capture data and reduce the precision of results. The recent development of the two-flank spatial partial identity model (SPIM) offers a cost-effective approach, which can reduce uncertainty in individual identity assignment and provide robust density estimates. We conducted camera trap surveys annually between 2016 and 2018 in Kasungu National Park, Malawi, a primary miombo woodland and a habitat lacking baseline data on carnivore densities. We used SPIM to estimate density for leopard (Panthera pardus) and spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta) and compared estimates with conventional SCR methods. Density estimates were low across survey years, when compared to estimates from sub-Saharan Africa, for both leopard (1.9±0.19 sd adults/100km2) and spotted hyaena (1.15±0.42 sd adults/100km2). Estimates from SPIM improved precision compared with analytical alternatives. Lion (Panthera leo) and wild dog (Lycaon pictus) were absent from the 2016 survey, but lone dispersers were recorded in 2017 and 2018, and both species appear limited to transient individuals from within the wider transfrontier conservation area. Low densities may reflect low carrying capacity in miombo woodlands or be a result of reduced prey availability from intensive poaching. We provide the first leopard density estimates from Malawi and a miombo woodland habitat, whilst demonstrating that SPIM is beneficial for density estimation in surveys where only one camera trap per location is deployed. The low density of large carnivores requires urgent management to reduce the loss of the carnivore guild in Kasungu National Park and across the wider transfrontier landscape

Eliciting a predatory response in the eastern corn snake (Pantherophis guttatus) using live and inanimate sensory stimuli: implications for managing invasive populations

North America's Eastern corn snake (Pantherophis guttatus) has been introduced to several islands throughout the Caribbean and Australasia where it poses a significant threat to native wildlife. Invasive snake control programs often involve trapping with live bait, a practice that, as well as being costly and labour intensive, raises welfare and ethical concerns. This study assessed corn snake response to live and inanimate sensory stimuli in an attempt to inform possible future trapping of the species and the development of alternative trap lures. We exposed nine individuals to sensory cues in the form of odour, visual, vibration and combined stimuli and measured the response (rate of tongue-flick [RTF]). RTF was significantly higher in odour and combined cues treatments, and there was no significant difference in RTF between live and inanimate cues during odour treatments. Our findings suggest chemical cues are of primary importance in initiating predation and that an inanimate odour stimulus, absent of simultaneous visual and vibratory cues, is a potential low-cost alternative trap lure for the control of invasive corn snake populations

Assessing risk prediction models using individual participant data from multiple studies

Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied).We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell’s concordance index, and Royston’s discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using aweighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from casecontrol studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous.Lisa Pennells, Stephen Kaptoge, Ian R. White, Simon G. Thompson, Angela M. Wood and the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (Debbie A. Lawlor

Fibrinogen, viscosity, and white blood cell count are major risk factors for ischemic heart disease. The Caerphilly and Speedwell collaborative heart disease studies.

BACKGROUND Recent studies have suggested that hemostatic factors and white blood cell count are predictive of ischemic heart disease (IHD). The relations of fibrinogen, viscosity, and white blood cell count to the incidence of IHD in the Caerphilly and Speedwell prospective studies are described. METHODS AND RESULTS The two studies have a common core protocol and are based on a combined cohort of 4,860 middle-aged men from the general population. The first follow-up was at a nearly constant interval of 5.1 years in Caerphilly and 3.2 years in Speedwell; 251 major IHD events had occurred. Age-adjusted relative odds of IHD for men in the top 20% of the distribution compared with the bottom 20% were 4.1 (95% confidence interval, 2.6-6.5) for fibrinogen, 4.5 (95% confidence interval, 2.8-7.4) for viscosity, and 3.2 (95% confidence interval, 2.0-4.9) for white blood cell count. Associations with IHD were similar in men who had never smoked, exsmokers, and current smokers, and the results suggest that at least part of the effect of smoking on IHD is mediated through fibrinogen, viscosity, and white blood cell count. Multivariate analysis shows that white blood cell count is an independent risk factor for IHD as is either fibrinogen or viscosity, or possibly both. Jointly, these three variables significantly improve the fit of a logistic regression model containing all the main conventional risk factors. Further, a model including age, smoking habits, fibrinogen, viscosity, and white blood cell count predicts IHD as well as one in which the three hemostatic/rheological variables are replaced by total cholesterol, diastolic pressure, and body mass index. CONCLUSION Jointly, fibrinogen, viscosity, and white blood cell count are important risk factors for IHD

Height and risk of death among men and women: aetiological implications of associations with cardiorespiratory disease and cancer mortality

OBJECTIVES: Height is inversely associated with cardiovascular disease mortality risk and has shown variable associations with cancer incidence and mortality. The interpretation of findings from previous studies has been constrained by data limitations. Associations between height and specific causes of death were investigated in a large general population cohort of men and women from the West of Scotland. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: Renfrew and Paisley, in the West of Scotland. SUBJECTS: 7052 men and 8354 women aged 45-64 were recruited into a study in Renfrew and Paisley, in the West of Scotland, between 1972 and 1976. Detailed assessments of cardiovascular disease risk factors, morbidity and socioeconomic circumstances were made at baseline. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths during 20 years of follow up classified into specific causes. RESULTS: Over the follow up period 3347 men and 2638 women died. Height is inversely associated with all cause, coronary heart disease, stroke, and respiratory disease mortality among men and women. Adjustment for socioeconomic position and cardiovascular risk factors had little influence on these associations. Height is strongly associated with forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and adjustment for FEV1 considerably attenuated the association between height and cardiorespiratory mortality. Smoking related cancer mortality is not associated with height. The risk of deaths from cancer unrelated to smoking tended to increase with height, particularly for haematopoietic, colorectal and prostate cancers. Stomach cancer mortality was inversely associated with height. Adjustment for socioeconomic position had little influence on these associations. CONCLUSION: Height serves partly as an indicator of socioeconomic circumstances and nutritional status in childhood and this may underlie the inverse associations between height and adulthood cardiorespiratory mortality. Much of the association between height and cardiorespiratory mortality was accounted for by lung function, which is also partly determined by exposures acting in childhood. The inverse association between height and stomach cancer mortality probably reflects Helicobacter pylori infection in childhood resulting inor being associated withshorter height. The positive associations between height and several cancers unrelated to smoking could reflect the influence of calorie intake during childhood on the risk of these cancers

Systematically missing confounders in individual participant data meta-analysis of observational cohort studies.

One difficulty in performing meta-analyses of observational cohort studies is that the availability of confounders may vary between cohorts, so that some cohorts provide fully adjusted analyses while others only provide partially adjusted analyses. Commonly, analyses of the association between an exposure and disease either are restricted to cohorts with full confounder information, or use all cohorts but do not fully adjust for confounding. We propose using a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis model to use information from all available cohorts while still adjusting for all the potential confounders. Our method uses both the fully adjusted and the partially adjusted estimated effects in the cohorts with full confounder information, together with an estimate of their within-cohort correlation. The method is applied to estimate the association between fibrinogen level and coronary heart disease incidence using data from 154,012 participants in 31 cohort

River research and applications across borders

Rivers flow across national borders, unfettered by political distinctions, and the ecological health of rivers is closely linked to their degree of connectivity. River research today is more global than it has ever been, but we show that river research, engineering, and management still operate within homegrown local paradigms. As a basis for this discussion, we studied the citation networks surrounding the most widely cited papers in our field, assessing the degree to which researchers have collaborated across geographical boundaries and fully drawn from the international literature. Despite gains over time, our field remains surprisingly and pervasively provincial. The likely explanation for provincial bias is that researchers are generally more familiar and comfortable with their own research methods, sites, and agendas. However, local focus has tangible consequences. For example, contrasting paradigms and differing approaches to river restoration and to flood-risk management show that opportunities are lost when we fail to learn from the successes and failures of other regions. As Sharp and Leshner (2014; p. 579) have argued, "the search for solutions needs to draw upon the talents and innovative ideas of scientists, engineers, and societal leaders worldwide to overcome traditional and nationalistic paradigms that have so far been inadequate to meeting these challenges.

Dental microwear texture analysis of Homo sapiens sapiens: foragers, farmers, and pastoralists

Objectives. The current study seeks to determine if a sample of foragers, farmers, and pastoralists can be distinguished by their dental microwear texture signatures. Materials and Methods. The study included a sample of 719 individuals from 51 archaeological sites (450 farmers, 192 foragers, 77 pastoralists). All were over age 12 and sexes were pooled. Using a Sensofar® white-light confocal profiler we collected dental microwear texture analysis (DMTA) data from a single first or second molar from each individual. We leveled and cleaned data clouds following standard procedures and analyzed the data with Sfrax® and Toothfrax® software. The DMTA variables were complexity and anisotropy. Statistics included ANOVA with partial eta squared and Hedges's g. We also performed a follow-up K-means cluster analysis. Results. We found significant differences between foragers and farmers and pastoralists for complexity and anisotropy, with foragers having greater complexity than either the farmers or the pastoralists. The farmers and pastoralists had greater anisotropy than the foragers. The Old World foragers had significantly higher anisotropy values than New World foragers. Old and New World farmers did not differ. Among the Old World farmers, those dating from the Neolithic through the Late Bronze Age had higher complexity values than those from the Iron Age through the medieval period. The cluster analysis discerned foragers and farmers but also indicated similarity between hard food foragers and hard food farmers. Discussion. Our findings reaffirm that DMTA is capable of distinguishing human diets. We found that foragers and farmers, in particular, differ in their microwear signatures across the globe. There are some exceptions, but nothing that would be unexpected given the range of human diets and food preparation techniques. This study indicates that in general DMTA is an efficacious means of paleodietary reconstruction in humans