Runaway Events Dominate the Heavy Tail of Citation Distributions

Statistical distributions with heavy tails are ubiquitous in natural and social phenomena. Since the entries in heavy tail have disproportional significance, the knowledge of its exact shape is very important. Citations of scientific papers form one of the best-known heavy tail distributions. Even in this case there is a considerable debate whether citation distribution follows the log-normal or power-law fit. The goal of our study is to solve this debate by measuring citation distribution for a very large and homogeneous data. We measured citation distribution for 418,438 Physics papers published in 1980-1989 and cited by 2008. While the log-normal fit deviates too strong from the data, the discrete power-law function with the exponent $\gamma=3.15$ does better and fits 99.955% of the data. However, the extreme tail of the distribution deviates upward even from the power-law fit and exhibits a dramatic "runaway" behavior. The onset of the runaway regime is revealed macroscopically as the paper garners 1000-1500 citations, however the microscopic measurements of autocorrelation in citation rates are able to predict this behavior in advance.Comment: 6 pages, 5 Figure

Adaptation of Autocatalytic Fluctuations to Diffusive Noise

Evolution of a system of diffusing and proliferating mortal reactants is analyzed in the presence of randomly moving catalysts. While the continuum description of the problem predicts reactant extinction as the average growth rate becomes negative, growth rate fluctuations induced by the discrete nature of the agents are shown to allow for an active phase, where reactants proliferate as their spatial configuration adapts to the fluctuations of the catalysts density. The model is explored by employing field theoretical techniques, numerical simulations and strong coupling analysis. For d<=2, the system is shown to exhibits an active phase at any growth rate, while for d>2 a kinetic phase transition is predicted. The applicability of this model as a prototype for a host of phenomena which exhibit self organization is discussed.Comment: 6 pages 6 figur

Machine learning can identify newly diagnosed patients with CLL at high risk of infection

Infections have become the major cause of morbidity and mortality among patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) due to immune dysfunction and cytotoxic CLL treatment. Yet, predictive models for infection are missing. In this work, we develop the CLL Treatment-Infection Model (CLL-TIM) that identifies patients at risk of infection or CLL treatment within 2 years of diagnosis as validated on both internal and external cohorts. CLL-TIM is an ensemble algorithm composed of 28 machine learning algorithms based on data from 4,149 patients with CLL. The model is capable of dealing with heterogeneous data, including the high rates of missing data to be expected in the real-world setting, with a precision of 72% and a recall of 75%. To address concerns regarding the use of complex machine learning algorithms in the clinic, for each patient with CLL, CLL-TIM provides explainable predictions through uncertainty estimates and personalized risk factors

Comparing stochastic differential equations and agent-based modelling and simulation for early-stage cancer

There is great potential to be explored regarding the use of agent-based modelling and simulation as an alternative paradigm to investigate early-stage cancer interactions with the immune system. It does not suffer from some limitations of ordinary differential equation models, such as the lack of stochasticity, representation of individual behaviours rather than aggregates and individual memory. In this paper we investigate the potential contribution of agent-based modelling and simulation when contrasted with stochastic versions of ODE models using early-stage cancer examples. We seek answers to the following questions: (1) Does this new stochastic formulation produce similar results to the agent-based version? (2) Can these methods be used interchangeably? (3) Do agent-based models outcomes reveal any benefit when compared to the Gillespie results? To answer these research questions we investigate three well-established mathematical models describing interactions between tumour cells and immune elements. These case studies were re-conceptualised under an agent-based perspective and also converted to the Gillespie algorithm formulation. Our interest in this work, therefore, is to establish a methodological discussion regarding the usability of different simulation approaches, rather than provide further biological insights into the investigated case studies. Our results show that it is possible to obtain equivalent models that implement the same mechanisms; however, the incapacity of the Gillespie algorithm to retain individual memory of past events affects the similarity of some results. Furthermore, the emergent behaviour of ABMS produces extra patters of behaviour in the system, which was not obtained by the Gillespie algorithm

Bacteria Modulate the CD8+ T Cell Epitope Repertoire of Host Cytosol-Exposed Proteins to Manipulate the Host Immune Response

The main adaptive immune response to bacteria is mediated by B cells and CD4+ T-cells. However, some bacterial proteins reach the cytosol of host cells and are exposed to the host CD8+ T-cells response. Both gram-negative and gram-positive bacteria can translocate proteins to the cytosol through type III and IV secretion and ESX-1 systems, respectively. The translocated proteins are often essential for the bacterium survival. Once injected, these proteins can be degraded and presented on MHC-I molecules to CD8+ T-cells. The CD8+ T-cells, in turn, can induce cell death and destroy the bacteria's habitat. In viruses, escape mutations arise to avoid this detection. The accumulation of escape mutations in bacteria has never been systematically studied. We show for the first time that such mutations are systematically present in most bacteria tested. We combine multiple bioinformatic algorithms to compute CD8+ T-cell epitope libraries of bacteria with secretion systems that translocate proteins to the host cytosol. In all bacteria tested, proteins not translocated to the cytosol show no escape mutations in their CD8+ T-cell epitopes. However, proteins translocated to the cytosol show clear escape mutations and have low epitope densities for most tested HLA alleles. The low epitope densities suggest that bacteria, like viruses, are evolutionarily selected to ensure their survival in the presence of CD8+ T-cells. In contrast with most other translocated proteins examined, Pseudomonas aeruginosa's ExoU, which ultimately induces host cell death, was found to have high epitope density. This finding suggests a novel mechanism for the manipulation of CD8+ T-cells by pathogens. The ExoU effector may have evolved to maintain high epitope density enabling it to efficiently induce CD8+ T-cell mediated cell death. These results were tested using multiple epitope prediction algorithms, and were found to be consistent for most proteins tested

Agent-Based Modeling of Endotoxin-Induced Acute Inflammatory Response in Human Blood Leukocytes

Inflammation is a highly complex biological response evoked by many stimuli. A persistent challenge in modeling this dynamic process has been the (nonlinear) nature of the response that precludes the single-variable assumption. Systems-based approaches offer a promising possibility for understanding inflammation in its homeostatic context. In order to study the underlying complexity of the acute inflammatory response, an agent-based framework is developed that models the emerging host response as the outcome of orchestrated interactions associated with intricate signaling cascades and intercellular immune system interactions.An agent-based modeling (ABM) framework is proposed to study the nonlinear dynamics of acute human inflammation. The model is implemented using NetLogo software. Interacting agents involve either inflammation-specific molecules or cells essential for the propagation of the inflammatory reaction across the system. Spatial orientation of molecule interactions involved in signaling cascades coupled with the cellular heterogeneity are further taken into account. The proposed in silico model is evaluated through its ability to successfully reproduce a self-limited inflammatory response as well as a series of scenarios indicative of the nonlinear dynamics of the response. Such scenarios involve either a persistent (non)infectious response or innate immune tolerance and potentiation effects followed by perturbations in intracellular signaling molecules and cascades.The ABM framework developed in this study provides insight on the stochastic interactions of the mediators involved in the propagation of endotoxin signaling at the cellular response level. The simulation results are in accordance with our prior research effort associated with the development of deterministic human inflammation models that include transcriptional dynamics, signaling, and physiological components. The hypothetical scenarios explored in this study would potentially improve our understanding of how manipulating the behavior of the molecular species could manifest into emergent behavior of the overall system