What trends in energy efficiencies? Evidence from a robust test

A proper modeling of the long-run behavior of energy and oil intensities is crucial in many respects. This paper aims at checking whether this long-run behavior should be modelled as a deterministic or a stochastic trend or both. We first apply a test for a deterministic trend robust to uncertainty about the stochastic trend. Our results indicate that, for the period 1960–2004, energy intensities of only 8 OECD countries out of 25 include a negative deterministic trend, 3 include a positive one and 14 seem to be better modelled by a stochastic trend only. When considering a sample of 73 non-OECD countries on the period 1971–2004, we show that only 22 exhibit a deterministic trend (negative for 15 countries and positive for 7 countries). Asimilar analysis for oil intensity leads to reject the hypothesis of an insignificant deterministic trend for 7 OECD countries out of 23 for the period 1965–2004 and 11 non-OECD countries out of 40 for the period 1971–2004. In the next step, we apply standard unit root tests and find that the unit root hypothesis is not very often rejected. We conclude that a main feature of energy intensities is the presence of a stochastic trend

On the non-convergence of energy intensities: Evidence from a pair-wise econometric approach

This paper evaluates the convergence of energy intensities for a group of 97 countries in the period 1971–2003. Convergence is tested using a recent method proposed by Pesaran (2007) [Pesaran, M.H., 2007. A pair-wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence. Journal of Econometrics 138, 312–355] based on the stochastic convergence criterion. An advantage of this method is that results do not depend on a benchmark against which convergence is assessed. It gives more robust results. Applications of several unit-root tests as well as a stationarity test uniformly reject the global convergence hypothesis. Locally, for Middle East, OECD and Europe sub-groups, non-convergence is less strongly rejected. The introduction of possible structural breaks in the analysis only marginally provides more support to the convergence hypothesis.ou

Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in European electricity forward markets

Using daily data from March 2001 to June 2005, we estimate a VAR-BEKK model and find evidence of return and volatility spillovers between the German, the Dutch and the British forward electricity markets. We apply Hafner and Herwartz [2006, Journal of International Money and Finance 25, 719-740] Volatility Impulse Response Function (VIRF) to quantify the impact of shock on expected conditional volatility. Weobserve that a shock has a high positive impact only if its size is large compared to the current level of volatility. The impact of shocks are usually not persistent, which may be an indication of market efficiency. Finally, we estimate the density of the VIRF at different forecast horizon. These fitted distributions are asymmetric and show that extreme events are possible even if their probability is low. These results have interesting implications for market participants whose risk management policy is based on option prices which themselves depend on the volatility level

Fundamental and financial influences on the co-movement of oil and gas prices

As speculative flows into commodity futures are expected to link commodity prices more strongly to equity indices, we investigate whether this process also creates increased correlations amongst the commodities themselves. Considering U.S. oil and gas futures, we investigate whether common factors, derived from a large international data set of real and nominal macroeconomic variables by means of the large approximate factor models methodology, are able to explain both returns and whether, beyond these fundamental common factors, the residuals remain correlated. We further investigate a possible explanation for this residual correlation by using some proxies for trading intensity derived from CFTC publicly available data, showing most notably that the proxy for speculation in the oil market increases the oil-gas correlation. We thus identify the central role of financial activities in shaping the link between oil and gas returns

Dealing with systematics in cosmic shear studies: new results from the VIRMOS-Descart Survey

We present a reanalysis of the VIRMOS-Descart weak lensing data, with a particular focus on different corrections for the variation of the point spread function anisotropy (PSF) across the CCDs. We show that the small scale systematics can be minimised, and eventually suppressed, using the B mode (curled shear component)measured in the corrected stars and galaxies. Updated cosmological constraints are obtained, free of systematics caused by PSF anisotropy. To facilitate general use of our results, we provide the two-points statistics data points with their covariance matrices up to a scale of one degree. For the normalisation of the mass power spectrum we obtain sigma_8=(0.83\pm 0.07)(Omega_M/0.3)^(-0.49). The shape parameter Gamma was marginalised over Gamma=[0.1,0.3] and the mean source redshift z_s over [0.8,1.0]. The latter is consistent with recent photometric redshifts obtained for the VIRMOS data and the preliminary spectroscopic redshifts from the VIRMOS-VVDS survey. The quoted 68% contour level includes all identified sources of error. We discuss the possible sources of residual contamination in this result: the effect of the non-linear mass power spectrum and remaining issues concerning the PSF correction. Our result is compared with the first release of the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe data. It is found that Cold Dark Matter models with a power law primordial power spectrum and high matter density Omega_M > 0.5 are excluded at 3-sigma.Comment: Submitted to Astronomy and Astrophysic

The VIRMOS deep imaging survey: I. overview and survey strategy

This paper presents the CFH12K-VIRMOS survey: a deep B, V, R and I imaging survey in four fields totalling more than 17 deg^2, conducted with the 30x40 arcmin^2 field CFH-12K camera. The survey is intended to be a multi-purpose survey used for a variety of science goals, including surveys of very high redshift galaxies and weak lensing studies. Four high galactic latitude fields, each 2x2 deg^2, have been selected along the celestial equator: 0226-04, 1003+01, 1400+05, and 2217+00. The 16 deg^2 of the "wide" survey are covered with exposure times of 2h, 1.5h, 1h, 1h, while the 1.3x1 deg^2 area of the "deep" survey at the center of the 0226-04 field is covered with exposure times of 7h, 4.5h, 3h, 3h, in B,V,R and I respectively. The data is pipeline processed at the Terapix facility at the Institut d'Astrophysique de Paris to produce large mosaic images. The catalogs produced contain the positions, shape, total and aperture magnitudes for the 2.175 million objects. The depth measured (3sigma in a 3 arc-second aperture) is I_{AB}=24.8 in the ``Wide'' areas, and I_{AB}=25.3 in the deep area. Careful quality control has been applied on the data as described in joint papers. These catalogs are used to select targets for the VIRMOS-VLT Deep Survey, a large spectroscopic survey of the distant universe (Le F\`evre et al., 2003). First results from the CFH12K-VIRMOS survey have been published on weak lensing (e.g. van Waerbeke & Mellier 2003). Catalogs and images are available through the VIRMOS database environment under Oracle ({\tt http://www.oamp.fr/virmos}). They will be open for general use on July 1st, 2003.Comment: 17 pages including 9 figures, submitted to A&

Cosmic Shear Statistics and Cosmology

We report a measurement of cosmic shear correlations using an effective area of 6.5 sq. deg. of the VIRMOS deep imaging survey in progress at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope. We measured various shear correlation functions, the aperture mass statistic and the top-hat smoothed variance of the shear with a detection significance exceeding 12 sigma for each of them. We present results on angular scales from 3 arc-seconds to half a degree. The consistency of different statistical measures is demonstrated and confirms the lensing origin of the signal through tests that rely on the scalar nature of the gravitational potential. For Cold Dark Matter models we find $\sigma_8 \Omega_0^{0.6}=0.43^{+0.04}_{-0.05}$ at the 95% confidence level. The measurement over almost three decades of scale allows to discuss the effect of the shape of the power spectrum on the cosmological parameter estimation. The degeneracy on sigma_8-Omega_0 can be broken if priors on the shape of the linear power spectrum (that can be parameterized by Gamma) are assumed. For instance, with Gamma=0.21 and at the 95% confidence level, we obtain 0.60.65 and Omega_0<0.4 for flat (Lambda-CDM) models. From the tangential/radial modes decomposition we can set an upper limit on the intrinsic shape alignment, which was recently suggested as a possible contribution to the lensing signal. Within the error bars, there is no detection of intrinsic shape alignment for scales larger than 1'.Comment: 13 pages, submitted to A&

Cosmic Shear Analysis with CFHTLS Deep data

We present the first cosmic shear measurements obtained from the T0001 release of the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey. The data set covers three uncorrelated patches (D1, D3 and D4) of one square degree each observed in u*, g', r', i' and z' bands, out to i'=25.5. The depth and the multicolored observations done in deep fields enable several data quality controls. The lensing signal is detected in both r' and i' bands and shows similar amplitude and slope in both filters. B-modes are found to be statistically zero at all scales. Using multi-color information, we derived a photometric redshift for each galaxy and separate the sample into medium and high-z galaxies. A stronger shear signal is detected from the high-z subsample than from the low-z subsample, as expected from weak lensing tomography. While further work is needed to model the effects of errors in the photometric redshifts, this results suggests that it will be possible to obtain constraints on the growth of dark matter fluctuations with lensing wide field surveys. The various quality tests and analysis discussed in this work demonstrate that MegaPrime/Megacam instrument produces excellent quality data. The combined Deep and Wide surveys give sigma_8= 0.89 pm 0.06 assuming the Peacock & Dodds non-linear scheme and sigma_8=0.86 pm 0.05 for the halo fitting model and Omega_m=0.3. We assumed a Cold Dark Matter model with flat geometry. Systematics, Hubble constant and redshift uncertainties have been marginalized over. Using only data from the Deep survey, the 1 sigma upper bound for w_0, the constant equation of state parameter is w_0 < -0.8.Comment: 14 pages, 16 figures, accepted A&

Very weak lensing in the CFHTLS Wide: Cosmology from cosmic shear in the linear regime

We present an exploration of weak lensing by large-scale structure in the linear regime, using the third-year (T0003) CFHTLS Wide data release. Our results place tight constraints on the scaling of the amplitude of the matter power spectrum sigma_8 with the matter density Omega_m. Spanning 57 square degrees to i'_AB = 24.5 over three independent fields, the unprecedented contiguous area of this survey permits high signal-to-noise measurements of two-point shear statistics from 1 arcmin to 4 degrees. Understanding systematic errors in our analysis is vital in interpreting the results. We therefore demonstrate the percent-level accuracy of our method using STEP simulations, an E/B-mode decomposition of the data, and the star-galaxy cross correlation function. We also present a thorough analysis of the galaxy redshift distribution using redshift data from the CFHTLS T0003 Deep fields that probe the same spatial regions as the Wide fields. We find sigma_8(Omega_m/0.25)^0.64 = 0.785+-0.043 using the aperture-mass statistic for the full range of angular scales for an assumed flat cosmology, in excellent agreement with WMAP3 constraints. The largest physical scale probed by our analysis is 85 Mpc, assuming a mean redshift of lenses of 0.5 and a LCDM cosmology. This allows for the first time to constrain cosmology using only cosmic shear measurements in the linear regime. Using only angular scales theta> 85 arcmin, we find sigma_8(Omega_m/0.25)_lin^0.53 = 0.837+-0.084, which agree with the results from our full analysis. Combining our results with data from WMAP3, we find Omega_m=0.248+-0.019 and sigma_8 = 0.771+-0.029.Comment: 23 pages, 16 figures (A&A accepted