Using a Dose-Finding Benchmark to Quantify the Loss Incurred by Dichotomisation in Phase II Dose-Ranging Studies

While there is recognition that more informative clinical endpoints can support better decision-making in clinical trials, it remains a common practice to categorise endpoints originally measured on a continuous scale. The primary motivation for this categorisation (and most commonly dichotomisation) is the simplicity of the analysis. There is, however, a long argument that this simplicity can come at a high cost. Specifically, larger sample sizes are needed to achieve the same level of accuracy when using a dichotomised outcome instead of the original continuous endpoint. The degree of “loss of information” has been studied in the contexts of parallel-group designs and two-stage Phase II trials. Limited attention, however, has been given to the quantification of the associated losses in dose ranging trials. In this work, we propose an approach to estimate the associated losses in Phase II dose ranging trials that is free of the actual dose ranging design used and depends on the clinical setting only. The approach uses the notion of a non-parametric optimal benchmark for dose finding trials, an evaluation tool that facilitates the assessment of a dose finding design by providing an upper bound on its performance under a given scenario in terms of the probability of the target dose selection. After demonstrating how the benchmark can be applied to Phase II dose ranging trials, we use it to quantify the dichotomisation losses. Using parameters from real clinical trials in various therapeutic areas, it is found that the ratio of sample sizes needed to obtain the same precision using continuous and binary (dichotomized) endpoints varies between 70%-75% under the majority of scenarios but can drop to 50% in some cases

Monitoring of jute/hemp fiber hybrid laminates by nondestructive testing techniques

Abstract Damage following static indentation of jute/hemp (50 wt.% total fiber content) hybrid laminates was detected by a number of nondestructive testing (NDT) techniques, in particular, near (NIR) and short-wave (SWIR) infrared reflectography and transmittography, infrared thermography (IRT), digital speckle photography (DSP), and holographic interferometry (HI), to discover and evaluate real defects in a laminate with a complex structure. A comparative study between thermographic data acquired in the mid- (MWIR) and long-wave infrared (LWIR) spectrum bands, by pulsed (PT) and square pulse (SPT) thermography, is reported and analyzed. A thermal simulation by COMSOL® Multiphysics (COMSOL Inc., Burlington, MA, USA) to validate the heating provided is also added. The robust SOBI (SOBI-RO) algorithm, available into the ICALAB Toolbox (BSI RIKEN ABSP Lab, Hirosawa, Japan) and operating in the MATLAB® (The MathWorks, Inc., Natick, MA, USA) environment, was applied on SPT data with results comparable to the ones acquired by several thermographic techniques. Finally, segmentation operators were applied both to the NIR/SWIR transmittography images and to a characteristic principal component thermography (PCT) image (EOFs) to visualize damage in the area surrounding indentation

Progression-Free Survival as a Surrogate for Overall Survival in Advanced/Recurrent Gastric Cancer Trials: A Meta-Analysis

The traditional endpoint for assessing efficacy of chemotherapies for advanced/recurrent gastric cancer is overall survival (OS), but OS requires prolonged follow-up. We investigated whether progression-free survival (PFS) is a valid surrogate for OS. Using individual patient data from the GASTRIC meta-analysis, surrogacy of PFS was assessed through the correlation between the endpoints and through the correlation between the treatment effects on the endpoints. External validation of the prediction based on PFS was also evaluated. Individual data from 4069 patients in 20 randomized trials were analyzed. The rank correlation coefficient between PFS and OS was 0.853 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.852 to 0.854). The R 2 between treatment effects on PFS and on OS was 0.61 (95% CI = 0.04 to 1.00). Treatment effects on PFS and on OS were only moderately correlated, and we could not confirm the validity of PFS as a surrogate endpoint for OS in advanced/recurrent gastric cance

Individual patient data meta-analysis of neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery versus upfront surgery for carcinoma of the oesophagus or the gastro- oesophageal junction

Introduction Which neoadjuvant treatment for locally advanced thoracic oesophagus (TE) or gastro-oesophageal junction carcinoma is best remains an open question. Randomised controlled trials variously accrued patients with adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma, making strong conclusions hard to obtain. The primary objective of this individual participant data meta-analysis was to investigate the effect of neoadjuvant chemotherapy on overall survival (OS). Patients and methods Eligible trials should have closed to accrual before 2016 and compared neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery (CS) to surgery alone. All relevant published and unpublished trials were identified via searches of electronic databases, conference proceedings and clinical trial registers. The main end-point was OS. Investigators were contacted to obtain the individual patient data, which was recorded, harmonised and checked. A random-effects Cox model, stratified by trial, was used for meta-analysis and subgroup analyses were preplanned. Results 16 trials were identified as eligible. Individual patient data were obtained from 12 trial and 2478 patients. CS was associated with an improved OS versus surgery, hazard ratio (HR) = 0.83 [0.72–0.96], p < 0.0001, translating to an absolute benefit of 5.7% at 5-years from 16.8% to 22.5%. Treatment effects did not vary substantially between adenocarcinoma (HR = 0.73 [0.62–0.87]) and squamous cell carcinoma (HR = 0.91 [0.76–1.08], interaction p = 0.26). A somewhat more pronounced effect was observed in gastro-oesophageal junction (HR = 0.68 [0.50–0.93]) versus TE (HR = 0.87 [0.75–1.00], interaction p = 0.07). CS was also associated with a greater disease-free survival (HR = 0.74 [0.64–0.85], p < 0.001). Conclusions Neoadjuvant chemotherapy conferred a better OS than surgery alone and should be considered in all anatomical location and histological subtypes

Combination Early-Phase Trials of Anticancer Agents in Children and Adolescents

PURPOSEThere is an increasing need to evaluate innovative drugs for childhood cancer using combination strategies. Strong biological rationale and clinical experience suggest that multiple agents will be more efficacious than monotherapy for most diseases and may overcome resistance mechanisms and increase synergy. The process to evaluate these combination trials needs to maximize efficiency and should be agreed by all stakeholders.METHODSAfter a review of existing combination trial methodologies, regulatory requirements, and current results, a consensus among stakeholders was achieved.RESULTSCombinations of anticancer therapies should be developed on the basis of mechanism of action and robust preclinical evaluation, and may include data from adult clinical trials. The general principle for combination early-phase studies is that, when possible, clinical trials should be dose- and schedule-confirmatory rather than dose-exploratory, and every effort should be made to optimize doses early. Efficient early-phase combination trials should be seamless, including dose confirmation and randomized expansion. Dose evaluation designs for combinations depend on the extent of previous knowledge. If not previously evaluated, limited evaluation of monotherapy should be included in the same clinical trial as the combination. Randomized evaluation of a new agent plus standard therapy versus standard therapy is the most effective approach to isolate the effect and toxicity of the novel agent. Platform trials may be valuable in the evaluation of combination studies. Patient advocates and regulators should be engaged with investigators early in a proposed clinical development pathway and trial design must consider regulatory requirements.CONCLUSIONAn optimized, agreed approach to the design and evaluation of early-phase pediatric combination trials will accelerate drug development and benefit all stakeholders, most importantly children and adolescents with cancer.</p

Individual Participant Data Network Meta-Analysis of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy or Chemoradiotherapy in Esophageal or Gastroesophageal Junction Carcinoma

PURPOSE: The optimal neoadjuvant treatment for resectable carcinoma of the thoracic esophagus (TE) or gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) remains a matter of debate. We performed an individual participant data (IPD) network meta-analysis (NMA) of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to study the effect of chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy, with a focus on tumor location and histology subgroups. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All, published or unpublished, RCTs closed to accrual before December 31, 2015 and having compared at least two of the following strategies were eligible: upfront surgery (S), chemotherapy followed by surgery (CS), and chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery (CRS). All analyses were conducted on IPD obtained from investigators. The primary end point was overall survival (OS). The IPD-NMA was analyzed by a one-step mixed-effect Cox model adjusted for age, sex, tumor location, and histology. The NMA was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42018107158). RESULTS: IPD were obtained for 26 of 35 RCTs (4,985 of 5,807 patients) corresponding to 12 comparisons for CS-S, 12 for CRS-S, and four for CRS-CS. CS and CRS led to increased OS when compared with S with hazard ratio (HR) = 0.86 (0.75 to 0.99), P = .03 and HR = 0.77 (0.68 to 0.87), P &lt; .001 respectively. The NMA comparison of CRS versus CS for OS gave a HR of 0.90 (0.74 to 1.09), P = .27 (consistency P = .26, heterogeneity P = .0038). For CS versus S, a larger effect on OS was observed for GEJ versus TE tumors (P = .036). For the CRS versus S and CRS versus CS, a larger effect on OS was observed for women (P = .003, .012, respectively). CONCLUSION:Neoadjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiotherapy were consistently better than S alone across histology, but with some variation in the magnitude of treatment effect by sex for CRS and tumor location for CS. A strong OS difference between CS and CRS was not identified.</p

A proposal for a new PhD level curriculum on quantitative methods for drug development

This paper provides an overview of “Improving Design, Evaluation and Analysis of early drug development Studies” (IDEAS), a European Commission–funded network bringing together leading academic institutions and small‐ to large‐sized pharmaceutical companies to train a cohort of graduate‐level medical statisticians. The network is composed of a diverse mix of public and private sector partners spread across Europe, which will host 14 early‐stage researchers for 36 months. IDEAS training activities are composed of a well‐rounded mixture of specialist methodological components and generic transferable skills. Particular attention is paid to fostering collaborations between researchers and supervisors, which span academia and the private sector. Within this paper, we review existing medical statistics programmes (MSc and PhD) and highlight the training they provide on skills relevant to drug development. Motivated by this review and our experiences with the IDEAS project, we propose a concept for a joint, harmonised European PhD programme to train statisticians in quantitative methods for drug development

CA-125 early dynamics to predict overall survival in women with newly diagnosed advanced ovarian cancer based on meta-analysis data

(1) Background: Cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) is a protein produced by ovarian cancer cells that is used for patients’ monitoring. However, the best ways to analyze its decline and prognostic role are poorly quantified. (2) Methods: We leveraged individual patient data from the Gynecologic Cancer Intergroup (GCIG) meta-analysis (N = 5573) to compare different approaches summarizing the early trajectory of CA-125 before the prediction time (called the landmark time) at 3 or 6 months after treatment initiation in order to predict overall survival. These summaries included observed and estimated measures obtained by a linear mixed model (LMM). Their performances were evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation with the Brier score and the area under the ROC (AUC). (3) Results: The estimated value and the last observed value at 3 months were the best measures used to predict overall survival, with an AUC of 0.75 CI 95% [0.70; 0.80] at 24 and 36 months and 0.74 [0.69; 0.80] and 0.75 [0.69; 0.80] at 48 months, respectively, considering that CA-125 over 6 months did not improve the AUC, with 0.74 [0.68; 0.78] at 24 months and 0.71 [0.65; 0.76] at 36 and 48 months. (4) Conclusions: A 3-month surveillance provided reliable individual information on overall survival until 48 months for patients receiving first-line chemotherapy

Liposomal antagomiR-155-5p restores anti-inflammatory macrophages and improves arthritis in preclinical models of rheumatoid arthritis

Objective: We previously reported an increased expression of microRNA‐155 (miR‐155) in the blood monocytes of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) that could be responsible for impaired monocyte polarization to anti‐inflammatory M2‐like macrophages. In this study, we employed two preclinical models of RA, collagen‐induced arthritis and K/BxN serum transfer arthritis, to examine the therapeutic potential of antagomiR‐155‐5p entrapped within PEGylated (polyethylene glycol [PEG]) liposomes in resolution of arthritis and repolarization of monocytes towards the anti‐inflammatory M2 phenotype. Methods: AntagomiR‐155‐5p or antagomiR‐control were encapsulated in PEG liposomes of 100 nm in size and −10 mV in zeta potential with high antagomiR loading efficiency (above 80%). Mice were injected intravenously with 1.5 nmol/100 μL PEG liposomes containing antagomiR‐155‐5p or control after the induction of arthritis. Results: We demonstrated the biodistribution of fluorescently tagged PEG liposomes to inflamed joints one hour after the injection of fluorescently tagged PEG liposomes, as well as the liver's subsequent accumulation after 48 hours, indicative of hepatic clearance, in mice with arthritis. The injection of PEG liposomes containing antagomiR‐155‐5p decreased arthritis score and paw swelling compared with PEG liposomes containing antagomiR‐control or the systemic delivery of free antagomiR‐155‐5p. Moreover, treatment with PEG liposomes containing antagomiR‐155‐5p led to the restoration of bone marrow monocyte defects in anti‐inflammatory macrophage differentiation without any significant functional change in other immune cells, including splenic B and T cells. Conclusion: The injection of antagomiR‐155‐5p encapsulated in PEG liposomes allows the delivery of small RNA to monocytes and macrophages and reduces joint inflammation in murine models of RA, providing a promising strategy in human disease.imag