A Case Study in Exploring Time Series: Inflation and the Growth of the Money Supply in Zaire, 1965-1982

To the economist, time series constitute key data sources for empirical analysis. This is especially true for macroeconomic analysis, which relies virtually exclusively on observations of macroeconomic aggregates as they evolve over time

Tropical tree cover in a heterogeneous environment: a reaction-diffusion model

This is the final version. Available from Public Library of Science via the DOI in this record.Observed bimodal tree cover distribution sat particular environmental conditions and theoretical models indicate that some areas in the tropics can be in either of the alternative stable vegetation states forest or savanna.However,when including spatial interaction in nonspatial differential equation models of a bistable quantity, only the state with the lowest potential energy remains stable. Our recent reaction-diffusion model of Amazonian tree cover confirmed this and was able to reproduce the observed spatial distribution of forest versus savanna satisfactorily when forced by heterogeneous environmental and anthropogenic variables, even though bistability was underestimated. These conclusions were solely based on simulation results for one set of parameters. Here, we perform ananalytical and numerical analysis of the model. We derive the Maxwell point (MP) of the homogeneous reaction-diffusion equation without savanna trees as a function of rainfall and human impact and show that the front between forest and nonforest settles at this point as long as savanna tree cover near the front remains sufficiently low. For parameters resulting in higher savanna tree cover near the front, we also find irregular forest-savanna cycles and woodland-savanna bistability, which can both explain the remaining observed bimodality.EPSR

Star-Forming Galaxies at Cosmic Noon

Ever deeper and wider lookback surveys have led to a fairly robust outline of the cosmic star formation history, which culminated around z~2 -- a period often nicknamed "cosmic noon." Our knowledge about star-forming galaxies at these epochs has dramatically advanced from increasingly complete population censuses and detailed views of individual galaxies. We highlight some of the key observational insights that influenced our current understanding of galaxy evolution in the equilibrium growth picture: ∙ scaling relations between galaxy properties are fairly well established among massive galaxies at least out to z~2, pointing to regulating mechanisms already acting on galaxy growth; ∙ resolved views reveal that gravitational instabilities and efficient secular processes within the gas- and baryon-rich galaxies at z~2 play an important role in the early build-up of galactic structure; ∙ ever more sensitive observations of kinematics at z~2 are probing the baryon and dark matter budget on galactic scales and the links between star-forming galaxies and their likely descendants; ∙ towards higher masses, massive bulges, dense cores, and powerful AGN and AGN-driven outflows are more prevalent and likely play a role in quenching star formation. We outline emerging questions and exciting prospects for the next decade with upcoming instrumentation, including the James Webb Space Telescope and the next generation of Extremely Large Telescopes

The size-star formation relation of massive galaxies at 1.5<z<2.5

We study the relation between size and star formation activity in a complete sample of 225 massive (M > 5 x 10^10 Msun) galaxies at 1.5<z<2.5, selected from the FIREWORKS UV-IR catalog of the CDFS. Based on stellar population synthesis model fits to the observed restframe UV-NIR SEDs, and independent MIPS 24 micron observations, 65% of galaxies are actively forming stars, while 35% are quiescent. Using sizes derived from 2D surface brightness profile fits to high resolution (FWHM_{PSF}~0.45 arcsec) groundbased ISAAC data, we confirm and improve the significance of the relation between star formation activity and compactness found in previous studies, using a large, complete mass-limited sample. At z~2, massive quiescent galaxies are significantly smaller than massive star forming galaxies, and a median factor of 0.34+/-0.02 smaller than galaxies of similar mass in the local universe. 13% of the quiescent galaxies are unresolved in the ISAAC data, corresponding to sizes <1 kpc, more than 5 times smaller than galaxies of similar mass locally. The quiescent galaxies span a Kormendy relation which, compared to the relation for local early types, is shifted to smaller sizes and brighter surface brightnesses and is incompatible with passive evolution. The progenitors of the quiescent galaxies, were likely dominated by highly concentrated, intense nuclear star bursts at z~3-4, in contrast to star forming galaxies at z~2 which are extended and dominated by distributed star formation.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

The Far-Infrared, UV and Molecular Gas Relation in Galaxies up to z=2.5

We use the infrared excess (IRX) FIR/UV luminosity ratio to study the relation between the effective UV attenuation (A_IRX) and the UV spectral slope (beta) in a sample of 450 1<z<2.5 galaxies. The FIR data is from very deep Herschel observations in the GOODS fields that allow us to detect galaxies with SFRs typical of galaxies with log(M)>9.3. Thus, we are able to study galaxies on and even below the main SFR-stellar mass relation (main sequence). We find that main sequence galaxies form a tight sequence in the IRX--beta plane, which has a flatter slope than commonly used relations. This slope favors a SMC-like UV extinction curve, though the interpretation is model dependent. The scatter in the IRX-beta plane, correlates with the position of the galaxies in the SFR-M plane. Using a smaller sample of galaxies with CO gas masses, we study the relation between the UV attenuation and the molecular gas content. We find a very tight relation between the scatter in the IRX-beta plane and the specific attenuation (S_A), a quantity that represents the attenuation contributed by the molecular gas mass per young star. S_A is sensitive to both the geometrical arrangement of stars and dust, and to the compactness of the star forming regions. We use this empirical relation to derive a method for estimating molecular gas masses using only widely available integrated rest-frame UV and FIR photometry. The method produces gas masses with an accuracy between 0.12-0.16 dex in samples of normal galaxies between z~0 and z~1.5. Major mergers and sub-millimeter galaxies follow a different S_A relation.Comment: 11 pages, 6 pages appendix, 11 figures, accepted to Ap

Spatially Resolved Outflows in a Seyfert Galaxy at z = 2.39

We present the first spatially resolved analysis of rest-frame optical and UV imaging and spectroscopy for a lensed galaxy at z = 2.39 hosting a Seyfert active galactic nucleus (AGN). Proximity to a natural guide star has enabled high signal-to-noise VLT SINFONI + adaptive optics observations of rest-frame optical diagnostic emission lines, which exhibit an underlying broad component with FWHM ~ 700 km/s in both the Balmer and forbidden lines. Measured line ratios place the outflow robustly in the region of the ionization diagnostic diagrams associated with AGN. This unique opportunity - combining gravitational lensing, AO guiding, redshift, and AGN activity - allows for a magnified view of two main tracers of the physical conditions and structure of the interstellar medium in a star-forming galaxy hosting a weak AGN at cosmic noon. By analyzing the spatial extent and morphology of the Ly-alpha and dust-corrected H-alpha emission, disentangling the effects of star formation and AGN ionization on each tracer, and comparing the AGN induced mass outflow rate to the host star formation rate, we find that the AGN does not significantly impact the star formation within its host galaxy.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

The KMOS^3D Survey: design, first results, and the evolution of galaxy kinematics from 0.7<z<2.7

We present the KMOS^3D survey, a new integral field survey of over 600 galaxies at 0.7<z<2.7 using KMOS at the Very Large Telescope (VLT). The KMOS^3D survey utilizes synergies with multi-wavelength ground and space-based surveys to trace the evolution of spatially-resolved kinematics and star formation from a homogeneous sample over 5 Gyrs of cosmic history. Targets, drawn from a mass-selected parent sample from the 3D-HST survey, cover the star formation-stellar mass ($M_*$) and rest-frame $(U-V)-M_*$ planes uniformly. We describe the selection of targets, the observations, and the data reduction. In the first year of data we detect Halpha emission in 191 $M_*=3\times10^{9}-7\times10^{11}$ Msun galaxies at z=0.7-1.1 and z=1.9-2.7. In the current sample 83% of the resolved galaxies are rotation-dominated, determined from a continuous velocity gradient and $v_{rot}/\sigma>1$, implying that the star-forming 'main sequence' (MS) is primarily composed of rotating galaxies at both redshift regimes. When considering additional stricter criteria, the Halpha kinematic maps indicate at least ~70% of the resolved galaxies are disk-like systems. Our high-quality KMOS data confirm the elevated velocity dispersions reported in previous IFS studies at z>0.7. For rotation-dominated disks, the average intrinsic velocity dispersion decreases by a factor of two from 50 km/s at z~2.3 to 25 km/s at z~0.9 while the rotational velocities at the two redshifts are comparable. Combined with existing results spanning z~0-3, disk velocity dispersions follow an approximate (1+z) evolution that is consistent with the dependence of velocity dispersion on gas fractions predicted by marginally-stable disk theory.Comment: 20 pages, 11 figures, 1 Appendix; Accepted to ApJ November 2