A New Uncertainty Calculus For Rule-Based Expert Systems

The solution of non-deterministic expert systems consists of two components –the solution reached and a calculated measure of belief in each solution. This measure of belief is often the most critical factor in analyzing the solution. Unfortunately, as this paper reviews, the issue of how best to implement uncertainty calculi in expert systems has never been settled. Some popular rule-based approaches have in fact been shown to produce results no better than random guessing. To improve the accuracy of rule-based systems, we propose a new calculus we call gamma factors. This calculus combines ideas from two popular certainty factor calculi the product method, and the probability sum method. It includes a tuning mechanism which the expert can use in a rule pre-processing step to compensate for dependent parallel evidence combination

Inexpensive Intelligence Using Procedural Propositional Logic

Implementations of inference engine systems invoke many costs, including the cost of the inference engine itself, the cost of integrating the inference engine, and the cost of specialized personnel needed to create and maintain the system. These costs make a very high return on investment a criterion for incorporating these systems into the corporate portfolio of applications and technologies. Recently, the No Inference Engine Theory (NIET) [8] has been developed for creating procedural propositional logic rule-based systems. The NIET systems are implemented in traditional procedural languages such as C++ and do not need an inference engine or proprietary languages, thus eliminating the cost of the inference engine, the cost of integrating the system, and the cost for knowledge of a proprietary language. In addition, these procedural systems are an order of magnitude faster [8] than inference systems and maintain linear performance. For problems using propositional logic, the procedural systems described in this paper offer dramatically lower costs, higher performance, and ease of integration. Lowering the external costs and eliminating the need for specialized skills should make NIET systems more profitable and lead to the wider use of propositional logic systems in business

Co-Produced Care in Veterinary Services: A Qualitative Study of UK Stakeholders' Perspectives

Changes in client behaviour and expectations, and a dynamic business landscape, amplify the already complex nature of veterinary and animal health service provision. Drawing on prior experiences, veterinary clients increasingly pursue enhanced involvement in services and have expectations of relationship-centred care. Co-production as a conceptualisation of reciprocity in service provision is a fundamental offering in the services sector, including human medicine, yet the role of co-production in veterinary services has been minimally explored. Utilising a service satisfaction framework, semi-structured interviews (n = 13) were completed with three veterinary stakeholder groups, veterinarians, allied animal health practitioners, and veterinary clients. Interview transcript data were subject to the qualitative data analysis techniques, thematic analysis and grounded theory, to explore relationship-centred care and subsequently conceptualise co-production service for the sector. Six latent dimensions of service were emergent, defined as: empathy, bespoke care, professional integrity, value for money, confident relationships, and accessibility. The dimensions strongly advocate wider sector adoption of a co-produced service, and a contextualised co-production framework is presented. Pragmatic challenges associated with integration of active veterinary clients in a practitioner–client partnership are evident. However, adopting a people-centric approach to veterinary services and partnerships with clients can confer the advantages of improved client satisfaction, enhanced treatment adherence and outcomes, and business sustainability

Measurements of Relative Phase in Binary Mixtures of Bose-Einstein Condensates

We have measured the relative phase of two Bose-Einstein condensates (BEC) using a time-domain separated-oscillatory-field condensate interferometer. A single two-photon coupling pulse prepares the double condensate system with a well-defined relative phase; at a later time, a second pulse reads out the phase difference accumulated between the two condensates. We find that the accumulated phase difference reproduces from realization to realization of the experiment, even after the individual components have spatially separated and their relative center-of-mass motion has damped.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figure

The Prevalence and Clinical Implications of Comorbid Back Pain in Shoulder Instability: A Multicenter Orthopaedic Outcomes Network (MOON) Shoulder Instability Cohort Study.

Background:Understanding predictors of pain is critical, as recent literature shows that comorbid back pain is an independent risk factor for worse functional and patient-reported outcomes (PROs) as well as increased opioid dependence after total joint arthroplasty. Purpose/Hypothesis:The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether comorbid back pain would be predictive of pain or self-reported instability symptoms at the time of stabilization surgery. We hypothesized that comorbid back pain will correlate with increased pain at the time of surgery as well as with worse scores on shoulder-related PRO measures. Study Design:Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods:As part of the Multicenter Orthopaedic Outcomes Network (MOON) Shoulder Instability cohort, patients consented to participate in pre- and intraoperative data collection. Demographic characteristics, injury history, preoperative PRO scores, and radiologic and intraoperative findings were recorded for patients undergoing surgical shoulder stabilization. Patients were also asked, whether they had any back pain. Results:The study cohort consisted of 1001 patients (81% male; mean age, 24.1 years). Patients with comorbid back pain (158 patients; 15.8%) were significantly older (28.1 vs 23.4 years; P < .001) and were more likely to be female (25.3% vs 17.4%; P = .02) but did not differ in terms of either preoperative imaging or intraoperative findings. Patients with self-reported back pain had significantly worse preoperative pain and shoulder-related PRO scores (American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons score, Western Ontario Shoulder Instability Index) (P < .001), more frequent depression (22.2% vs 8.3%; P < .001), poorer mental health status (worse scores for the RAND 36-Item Health Survey Mental Component Score, Iowa Quick Screen, and Personality Assessment Screener) (P < .01), and worse preoperative expectations (P < .01). Conclusion:Despite having similar physical findings, patients with comorbid back pain had more severe preoperative pain and self-reported symptoms of instability as well as more frequent depression and lower mental health scores. The combination of disproportionate shoulder pain, comorbid back pain and mental health conditions, and inferior preoperative expectations may affect not only the patient's preoperative state but also postoperative pain control and/or postoperative outcomes

Skin sympathetic nerve activity precedes the onset and termination of paroxysmal atrial tachycardia and fibrillation

Background Skin sympathetic nerve activity (SKNA) is useful for estimating sympathetic tone in humans. Objective The purpose of this study was to test the hypotheses that (1) increased SKNA is associated with the onset and termination of paroxysmal atrial tachycardia (AT) and atrial fibrillation (AF) and (2) sinoatrial node response to SKNA is reduced in patients with more frequent AT or AF episodes. Methods SKNA and electrocardiogram were recorded in 11 patients (4 men and 7 women; average age 66 ± 10 years), including 3 patients with AT (11 ± 18 episodes per patient) and 8 patients with AF (24 ± 26 episodes per patient). Results The average SKNA (aSKNA) 10 seconds before AT onset was 1.07 ± 0.10 μV and 10 seconds after termination was 1.27 ± 0.10 μV; both were significantly (P = .032 and P < .0001) higher than that during sinus rhythm (0.97 ± 0.09 μV). The aSKNA 10 seconds before AF onset was 1.34 ± 0.07 μV and 10 seconds after termination was 1.31 ± 0.07 μV; both were significantly (P < .0001) higher than that during sinus rhythm (1.04 ± 0.07 μV). The aSKNA before onset (P < .0001) and after termination (P = .0011) was higher in AF than in AT. The sinus rate correlated (P < .0001) with aSKNA in each patient (average r = 0.74; 95% confidence interval 0.65–0.84). The r value in each patient negatively correlated with the number of AT and AF episodes (r = −0.6493; 95% confidence interval −0.8990 to −0.08073; P = .0306). Conclusion Increased SKNA was observed both at the onset and termination of AT and AF. Patients with more frequent AT and AF episodes had a weak correlation between sinus rate and aSKNA, suggesting sinoatrial node remodeling by tachycardia

Inter-species variation in colour perception

Inter-species variation in colour perception poses a serious problem for the view that colours are mind-independent properties. Given that colour perception varies so drastically across species, which species perceives colours as they really are? In this paper, I argue that all do. Specifically, I argue that members of different species perceive properties that are determinates of different, mutually compatible, determinables. This is an instance of a general selectionist strategy for dealing with cases of perceptual variation. According to selectionist views, objects simultaneously instantiate a plurality of colours, all of them genuinely mind-independent, and subjects select from amongst this plurality which colours they perceive. I contrast selectionist views with relationalist views that deny the mind-independence of colour, and consider some general objections to this strategy

Developing and enhancing biodiversity monitoring programmes: a collaborative assessment of priorities

1.Biodiversity is changing at unprecedented rates, and it is increasingly important that these changes are quantified through monitoring programmes. Previous recommendations for developing or enhancing these programmes focus either on the end goals, that is the intended use of the data, or on how these goals are achieved, for example through volunteer involvement in citizen science, but not both. These recommendations are rarely prioritized. 2.We used a collaborative approach, involving 52 experts in biodiversity monitoring in the UK, to develop a list of attributes of relevance to any biodiversity monitoring programme and to order these attributes by their priority. We also ranked the attributes according to their importance in monitoring biodiversity in the UK. Experts involved included data users, funders, programme organizers and participants in data collection. They covered expertise in a wide range of taxa. 3.We developed a final list of 25 attributes of biodiversity monitoring schemes, ordered from the most elemental (those essential for monitoring schemes; e.g. articulate the objectives and gain sufficient participants) to the most aspirational (e.g. electronic data capture in the field, reporting change annually). This ordered list is a practical framework which can be used to support the development of monitoring programmes. 4.People's ranking of attributes revealed a difference between those who considered attributes with benefits to end users to be most important (e.g. people from governmental organizations) and those who considered attributes with greatest benefit to participants to be most important (e.g. people involved with volunteer biological recording schemes). This reveals a distinction between focussing on aims and the pragmatism in achieving those aims. 5.Synthesis and applications. The ordered list of attributes developed in this study will assist in prioritizing resources to develop biodiversity monitoring programmes (including citizen science). The potential conflict between end users of data and participants in data collection that we discovered should be addressed by involving the diversity of stakeholders at all stages of programme development. This will maximize the chance of successfully achieving the goals of biodiversity monitoring programmes