Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013-14

Eruptions of Sinabung volcano, Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a lava dome that collapsed to a subsequent thick lava flow that slowly ceased to be active, and later, to a new lava dome. As the eruption progressed, event trees were constructed to forecast eruptive behavior six times, with forecast windows that ranged from 2. weeks to 1. year: November 7-10, December 12-14, and December 27, 2013; and January 9-10, May 13, and October 7, 2014. These event trees were successful in helping to frame the forecast scenarios, to collate current monitoring information, and to document outstanding questions and unknowns. The highest probability forecasts closely matched outcomes of eruption size (including extrusion of the first dome), production of pyroclastic density currents, and pyroclastic density current runout distances. Events assigned low probabilities also occurred, including total collapse of the lava dome in January 2014 and production of a small blast pyroclastic density current in February 2014

Expression of OATP Family Members in Hormone-Related Cancers: Potential Markers of Progression

The organic anion transporting polypeptide (OATP) family of transporters has been implicated in prostate cancer disease progression probably by transporting hormones or drugs. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the expression, frequency, and relevance of OATPs as a biomarker in hormone-dependent cancers. We completed a study examining SLCO1B3, SLCO1B1 and SLCO2B1 mRNA expression in 381 primary, independent patient samples representing 21 cancers and normal tissues. From a separate cohort, protein expression of OATP1B3 was examined in prostate, colon, and bladder tissue. Based on expression frequency, SLCO2B1 was lower in liver cancer (P = 0.04) which also trended lower with decreasing differentiation (P = 0.004) and lower magnitude in pancreatic cancer (P = 0.05). SLCO2B1 also had a higher frequency in thyroid cancer (67%) than normal (0%) and expression increased with stage (P = 0.04). SLCO1B3 was expressed in 52% of cancerous prostate samples and increased SLCO1B3 expression trended with higher Gleason score (P = 0.03). SLCO1B3 expression was also higher in testicular cancer (P = 0.02). SLCO1B1 expression was lower in liver cancer (P = 0.04) which trended lower with liver cancer grade (P = 0.0004) and higher with colon cancer grade (P = 0.05). Protein expression of OATP1B3 was examined in normal and cancerous prostate, colon, and bladder tissue samples from an independent cohort. The results were similar to the transcription data, but showed distinct localization. OATPs correlate to differentiation in certain hormone-dependent cancers, thus may be useful as biomarkers for assessing clinical treatment and stage of disease

Biological, clinical and population relevance of 95 loci for blood lipids.

Plasma concentrations of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides are among the most important risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD) and are targets for therapeutic intervention. We screened the genome for common variants associated with plasma lipids in >100,000 individuals of European ancestry. Here we report 95 significantly associated loci (P < 5 x 10(-8)), with 59 showing genome-wide significant association with lipid traits for the first time. The newly reported associations include single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) near known lipid regulators (for example, CYP7A1, NPC1L1 and SCARB1) as well as in scores of loci not previously implicated in lipoprotein metabolism. The 95 loci contribute not only to normal variation in lipid traits but also to extreme lipid phenotypes and have an impact on lipid traits in three non-European populations (East Asians, South Asians and African Americans). Our results identify several novel loci associated with plasma lipids that are also associated with CAD. Finally, we validated three of the novel genes-GALNT2, PPP1R3B and TTC39B-with experiments in mouse models. Taken together, our findings provide the foundation to develop a broader biological understanding of lipoprotein metabolism and to identify new therapeutic opportunities for the prevention of CAD

Listening In on the Past: What Can Otolith δ18O Values Really Tell Us about the Environmental History of Fishes?

Oxygen isotope ratios from fish otoliths are used to discriminate marine stocks and reconstruct past climate, assuming that variations in otolith δ18O values closely reflect differences in temperature history of fish when accounting for salinity induced variability in water δ18O. To investigate this, we exploited the environmental and migratory data gathered from a decade using archival tags to study the behaviour of adult plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) in the North Sea. Based on the tag-derived monthly distributions of the fish and corresponding temperature and salinity estimates modelled across three consecutive years, we first predicted annual otolith δ18O values for three geographically discrete offshore sub-stocks, using three alternative plausible scenarios for otolith growth. Comparison of predicted vs. measured annual δ18O values demonstrated >96% correct prediction of sub-stock membership, irrespective of the otolith growth scenario. Pronounced inter-stock differences in δ18O values, notably in summer, provide a robust marker for reconstructing broad-scale plaice distribution in the North Sea. However, although largely congruent, measured and predicted annual δ18O values of did not fully match. Small, but consistent, offsets were also observed between individual high-resolution otolith δ18O values measured during tag recording time and corresponding δ18O predictions using concomitant tag-recorded temperatures and location-specific salinity estimates. The nature of the shifts differed among sub-stocks, suggesting specific vital effects linked to variation in physiological response to temperature. Therefore, although otolith δ18O in free-ranging fish largely reflects environmental temperature and salinity, we counsel prudence when interpreting otolith δ18O data for stock discrimination or temperature reconstruction until the mechanisms underpinning otolith δ18O signature acquisition, and associated variation, are clarified

A review of equity issues in quantitative studies on health inequalities: the case of asthma in adults

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The term 'inequities' refers to avoidable differences rooted in injustice. This review examined whether or not, and how, quantitative studies identifying inequalities in risk factors and health service utilization for asthma explicitly addressed underlying inequities. Asthma was chosen because recent decades have seen strong increases in asthma prevalence in many international settings, and inequalities in risk factors and related outcomes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A review was conducted of studies that identified social inequalities in asthma-related outcomes or health service use in adult populations. Data were extracted on use of equity terms (objective evidence), and discussion of equity issues without using the exact terms (subjective evidence).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 219 unique articles retrieved, 21 were eligible for inclusion. None used the terms equity/inequity. While all but one article traced at least partial pathways to inequity, only 52% proposed any intervention and 55% of these interventions focused exclusively on the more proximal, clinical level.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Without more in-depth and systematic examination of inequities underlying asthma prevalence, quantitative studies may fail to provide the evidence required to inform equity-oriented interventions to address underlying circumstances restricting opportunities for health.</p

New genetic loci implicated in fasting glucose homeostasis and their impact on type 2 diabetes risk.

Levels of circulating glucose are tightly regulated. To identify new loci influencing glycemic traits, we performed meta-analyses of 21 genome-wide association studies informative for fasting glucose, fasting insulin and indices of beta-cell function (HOMA-B) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in up to 46,186 nondiabetic participants. Follow-up of 25 loci in up to 76,558 additional subjects identified 16 loci associated with fasting glucose and HOMA-B and two loci associated with fasting insulin and HOMA-IR. These include nine loci newly associated with fasting glucose (in or near ADCY5, MADD, ADRA2A, CRY2, FADS1, GLIS3, SLC2A2, PROX1 and C2CD4B) and one influencing fasting insulin and HOMA-IR (near IGF1). We also demonstrated association of ADCY5, PROX1, GCK, GCKR and DGKB-TMEM195 with type 2 diabetes. Within these loci, likely biological candidate genes influence signal transduction, cell proliferation, development, glucose-sensing and circadian regulation. Our results demonstrate that genetic studies of glycemic traits can identify type 2 diabetes risk loci, as well as loci containing gene variants that are associated with a modest elevation in glucose levels but are not associated with overt diabetes

Hundreds of variants clustered in genomic loci and biological pathways affect human height

Most common human traits and diseases have a polygenic pattern of inheritance: DNA sequence variants at many genetic loci influence the phenotype. Genome-wide association (GWA) studies have identified more than 600 variants associated with human traits, but these typically explain small fractions of phenotypic variation, raising questions about the use of further studies. Here, using 183,727 individuals, we show that hundreds of genetic variants, in at least 180 loci, influence adult height, a highly heritable and classic polygenic trait. The large number of loci reveals patterns with important implications for genetic studies of common human diseases and traits. First, the 180 loci are not random, but instead are enriched for genes that are connected in biological pathways (P = 0.016) and that underlie skeletal growth defects (P < 0.001). Second, the likely causal gene is often located near the most strongly associated variant: in 13 of 21 loci containing a known skeletal growth gene, that gene was closest to the associated variant. Third, at least 19 loci have multiple independently associated variants, suggesting that allelic heterogeneity is a frequent feature of polygenic traits, that comprehensive explorations of already-discovered loci should discover additional variants and that an appreciable fraction of associated loci may have been identified. Fourth, associated variants are enriched for likely functional effects on genes, being over-represented among variants that alter amino-acid structure of proteins and expression levels of nearby genes. Our data explain approximately 10% of the phenotypic variation in height, and we estimate that unidentified common variants of similar effect sizes would increase this figure to approximately 16% of phenotypic variation (approximately 20% of heritable variation). Although additional approaches are needed to dissect the genetic architecture of polygenic human traits fully, our findings indicate that GWA studies can identify large numbers of loci that implicate biologically relevant genes and pathways.