A survey of decision-making approaches for climate change adaptation: Are robust methods the way forward?

Applying standard decision-making processes such as cost–benefit analysis in an area of high uncertainty such as climate change adaptation is challenging. While the costs of adaptation might be observable and immediate, the benefits are often uncertain. The limitations of traditional decision-making processes in the context of adaptation decisions are recognised, and so-called robust approaches are increasingly explored in the literature. Robust approaches select projects that meet their purpose across a variety of futures by integrating a wide range of climate scenarios, and are thus particularly suited for deep uncertainty. We review real option analysis, portfolio analysis, robust-decision making and no/low regret options as well as reduced decision-making time horizons, describing the underlying concepts and highlighting a number of applications. We discuss the limitations of robust decision-making processes to identify which ones may prove most promising as adaptation planning becomes increasingly critical; namely those that provide a compromise between a meaningful analysis and simple implementation. We introduce a simple framework identifying which method is suited for which application. We conclude that the 'robust decision making' method offers the most potential in adaptation appraisal as it can be applied with various degrees of complexity and to a wide range of options

The impact of flood action groups on the uptake of flood management measures

Household flood management measures can significantly reduce the risk from flooding. Understanding the factors that influence the uptake of measures has important implications for the design of measures to induce people to take charge of risk mitigation. We investigate the impact of flood action groups in communities in Scotland on the uptake of four measures: insurance, flood warnings, sandbags and floodgates applying regression analysis using a cross-sectional survey (n = 124). The groups were formed in response to the threat from flooding in those communities, and offer information and training on household flood management measures. We use the theoretical framework of Protection Motivation Theory, and compare uptake of the measures before and after the foundation of the flood action groups, as well as in the near future. The models show positive adoption effects for flood warnings, floodgates and to an extent for insurance, and a positive correlation with increased confidence of implementing and belief in the effectiveness of the measures. The effect is significant if specific information on the measures was provided, indicating the importance of tailored content. We conclude that appropriately designed flood action groups can be a cost-effective way of increasing the uptake of household flood management measures

Adaptation to Climate Change: Why is it Needed and How Can it be Implemented?

This is the 3rd study to be published in the CEPS Policy Brief series from ongoing research being carried out for the EU-funded ADAM project (ADaptation And Mitigation strategies: supporting European climate policy). Following an introduction to the aims and objectives of the ADAM project, section 2 sets out the rationales for public policy related to adaptation to the impacts of climatic change in the EU. Section 3 provides evidence from a number of stakeholders and sketches the perception of various actors towards the role of European adaptation policies and climate proofing of sectoral policies. Section 4 on the economics of adaptation argues that the economic impacts of climate change will mainly be reduced by private and autonomous response, while principal challenges are with adaptation needs that require collective action and public engagement, including public finance. Section 5 assesses monetary and socioeconomic risks from extreme weather events in Europe and points to the evidence of rising losses due to weather extremes whilst important knowledge gaps remain to project future risks. And the final section (6) deals with different concepts of uncertainties surrounding climate change and climate variability, and argues for adaptive measures to be sufficiently flexible to allow recalibration as uncertainties are reduced with time

Tools for adaptive governance for complex social-ecological systems: A review of role-playing-games as serious games at the community-policy interface

The management of natural resources—from forests to fisheries to freshwater—is becoming increasingly complex and requires new tools and processes for engaging with individuals, communities, and decision-makers. Policy makers and practitioners have begun using serious games (SGs) (those used for purposes other than entertainment) to overcome some of the complex challenges of governing resources in social-ecological systems. This paper uses a systematic literature review methodology to assess role-playing SGs for natural resource management. Fifty-two articles from the role-playing game (RPG) subset of SGs are identified, synthesised and analysed using a multi-criteria evaluation framework. First, we explore three theoretical and conceptual elements of games: principles of RPGs, functions of games, and (practical) game characteristics. We evaluate game elements, including game design, adherence to reality and the degree to which games integrate elements of participatory—and action research. These dimensions of RPGs are then analysed and discussed. Particular attention is paid to the value and application of RPGs to address complex problems with interacting environmental, social, cultural and economic challenges, and the extent to which they can inform adaptive governance solutions. Results show that RPGs can be a valuable tool at different levels; however, we also identify important gaps in the current state of knowledge, in particular, related to bridging community—and higher-level decision-making scales through RPGs

A guide towards climate change adaptation in the livestock sector: adaptation options and the role of robust decision-making tools for their economic appraisal

Economic appraisal and technical effectiveness of adaptation options are key criteria for judging climate change adaptation investment decisions in all sectors. Yet relatively little methodological guidance exists for determining the most appropriate appraisal techniques for different adaptation options. This paper provides adaptation options and scopes relevant appraisal methods in agriculture focussing on livestock production specifically. We find that for many adaptation options for livestock agriculture, standard (expected) cost-benefit analysis is an appropriate tool. For adaptation options requiring long lead times or those with long lifetimes, techniques incorporating uncertainty (‘robust’ methods) are more suitable, including real options analysis, portfolio analysis and robust decision-making. From a comprehensive list of adaptation options in the livestock sector, we identify the most appropriate appraisal technique for each option and describe how the robust appraisal tools could be applied to heat stress, flood risk and water management

Exploring the solution space for different forestry management structures in New Zealand under climate change

The concept of “solution spaces” is used to explore the potential future of forestry under climate change for different types of forestry management structures. We base the analysis in New Zealand, where forestry plays an increasingly critical role in the nation's climate policy, but the concept could be applied to any region. Understanding solution spaces and the ways in which they can be influenced at different levels of ownership is a critical step towards effective climate change adaptation. Building on the base of existing climate projections, scenarios, and economic and social science literature, we form an assessment of the capacity of each forest owner typology to influence their solution spaces into the future. Different management structures have strengths in different areas – while industrial forest managers may be able to utilise emerging technologies better than their smaller scale counterparts for example, they may be less agile and flexible. The sector as a whole may benefit from working collectively to draw on the respective strengths of each typology. Critically, planning now to expand the space into the future will be essential

Adaptation knowledge for New Zealand’s primary industries: Known, not known and needed

Climate sensitive primary industries including pastoral farming, high-value horticulture and viticulture are central to Aotearoa-New Zealand’s economy. While advances have been made in understanding the impacts and implications of climate change critical knowledge gaps remain, particularly for adaptation. This study develops and applies a novel methodology to identify and characterise adaptation knowledge for primary industries. The basis for the review is ten years’ of research and action under the Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change (SLMACC) program, supplemented with a systematic review of the published literature. Reports (n = 32) and literature (n = 22) are reviewed and assessed using the Adaptation Knowledge Cycle to characterise analytical and empirical foci. The detailed assessment of knowledge for Impacts, Implications, Decisions or Actions enables a robust and rigorous assessment of existing knowledge, identifies critical research gaps and emerging needs. Results show research to date has focused almost exclusively on understanding the impact of climate variability and extremes on land management. There are significant empirical (e.g. location and sector) and methodological (e.g. integrated assessments, scenarios, and vulnerability assessment) gaps, for at risk regions and sectors, and limited understanding of the decisions and actions necessary to enable successful adaptation. To inform future adaptation planning, additional work is required to better understand the implications, decision-making processes and obstacles to action. More detailed understanding of location-, season-, time- and sector-specific responses to climate change is also necessary. Findings advance our understanding of adaptation knowledge and reflect on diversity of information necessary to enable and sustain resilient rural futures and provide a conceptual and methodological basis for similar assessments elsewhere

Cost and economic evidence for asset-based approaches to health improvement and their evaluation methods: a systematic review

Background Asset-based approaches (ABAs) tackle health inequalities by empowering people in more disadvantaged communities, or targeted populations, to better utilise pre-existing local community-based resources. Using existing resources supports individuals to better manage their own health and its determinants, potentially at low cost. Targeting individuals disengaged with traditional service delivery methods offers further potential for meaningful cost-savings, since these people often require costly care. Thus, improving prevention, and management, of ill-health in these groups may have considerable cost implications. Aim To systematically review the extent of current cost and economic evidence on ABAs, and methods used to develop it. Methods Search strategy terms encompassed: i) costing; ii) intervention detail; and iii) locality. Databases searched: Medline, CENTRAL and Wed of Science. Researchers screened 9,116 articles. Risk of bias was assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) tool. Narrative synthesis summarised findings. Results Twelve papers met inclusion criteria, representing eleven different ABAs. Within studies, methods varied widely, not only in design and comparators, but also in terms of included costs and outcome measures. Studies suggested economic efficiency, but lack of suitable comparators made more definitive conclusions difficult. Conclusion Economic evidence around ABAs is limited. ABAs may be a promising way to engage underserved or minority groups, that may have lower net costs compared to alternative health and wellbeing improvement approaches. ABAs, an example of embedded services, suffer in the context of economic evaluation, which typically consider services as mutually exclusive alternatives. Economics of the surrounding services, mechanisms of information sharing, and collaboration underpin the success of assets and ABAs. The economic evidence, and evaluations in general, would benefit from increased context and detail to help ensure more nuanced and sophisticated understanding of the economics of ABAs. Further evidence is needed to reach conclusions about cost-effectiveness of ABAs

Follistatin-like 3 (FSTL3) mediated silencing of transforming growth factor (TGF ) signaling is essential for testicular aging and regulating testis size

Follistatin-like 3 (FSTL3) is a glycoprotein that binds and inhibits the action of TGFβ ligands such as activin. The roles played by FSTL3 and activin signaling in organ development and homeostasis are not fully understood. The authors show mice deficient in FSTL3 develop markedly enlarged testes that are also delayed in their age-related regression. These FSTL3 knockout mice exhibit increased Sertoli cell numbers, allowing for increased spermatogenesis but otherwise showing normal testicular function. The data show that FSTL3 deletion leads to increased AKT signaling and SIRT1 expression in the testis. This demonstrates a cross-talk between TGFβ ligand and AKT signaling and leads to a potential mechanism for increased cellular survival and antiaging. The findings identify crucial roles for FSTL3 in limiting testis organ size and promoting age-related testicular regression