Failure of vaccination to prevent outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease

Outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease persist in dairy cattle herds in Saudi Arabia despite revaccination at intervals of 4-6 months. Vaccine trials provide data on antibody responses following vaccination. Using this information we developed a mathematical model of the decay of protective antibodies with which we estimated the fraction of susceptible animals at a given time after vaccination. The model describes the data well, suggesting over 95% take with an antibody half-life of 43 days. Farm records provided data on the time course of five outbreaks. We applied a 'SLIR' epidemiological model to these data, fitting a single parameter representing disease transmission rate. The analysis provides estimates of the basic reproduction number R(0), which may exceed 70 in some cases. We conclude that the critical intervaccination interval which would provide herd immunity against FMDV is unrealistically short, especially for heterologous challenge. We suggest that it may not be possible to prevent foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks on these farms using currently available vaccines

Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis.

Most pandemics--eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza--originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption

How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the ‘art of the possible’, which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for ‘good practice’ for the development and the use of predictive models

Evaluation of risks of foot-and-mouth disease in Scotland to assist with decision making during the 2007 outbreak in the UK

An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurred in Surrey on August 3, 2007. A Great Britain-wide ban on livestock movements was implemented immediately. This coincided with the start of seasonal sheep movements off the hills in Scotland; the majority of these animals are sold via markets. The ban therefore posed severe economic and animal-welfare hardships if it was to last through September and beyond. The Scottish Government commissioned an analysis to assess the risk of re-opening markets given the uncertainty about whether FMD had entered Scotland. Tracing of livestock moved from within the risk zone in England between July 16 and August 3 identified contact chains to 12 Scottish premises; veterinary field inspections found a further three unrecorded movements. No signs of infection were found on these holdings. Under the conservative assumption that a single unknown Scottish holding was infected with FMD, an estimate of the time-dependent probability of Scotland being FMD free given no detection was made. Analyses indicated that if FMD was not detected by early to mid-September then it was highly probable that Scotland was FMD free. Risk maps were produced to visualise the potential spread of FMD across Scotland if it was to spread either locally or via market sales

Breaking the silence: A qualitative exploration of parental perspectives of children with Goldenhar syndrome

Background Goldenhar Syndrome is a rare congenital condition, typically characterized by craniofacial abnormalities and vertebral malformations. Due to its rare and complex nature, the etiology is unconfirmed, resulting in parental uncertainty and subsequent emotional sequelae. Clinical manifestations have been researched but few studies have explored parental wellbeing and Quality of Life (QoL). In this qualitative study, we explore parental views of the challenges and lived experience of raising a child with Goldenhar Syndrome. Methods Ten biological parents (five mothers and five fathers), recruited at the Goldenhar UK Conference, took part in audio-recorded, semi-structured interviews. Interviews explored emotional wellbeing, views surrounding causation, support accessed, challenges faced, experience of stigma and future outlooks. Reflexive thematic analysis was employed, and transcripts were subject to deductive and inductive coding. Results Seven themes were identified: support networks (Goldenhar UK), rollercoaster of emotion; gendered coping; uncertainty; societal reactions; coping with challenge and acceptance. Conclusions This is the first-time the life perspectives of parents, raising a child with Goldenhar Syndrome, have been explored via interviews. We have unearthed prominent issues that impact parental QoL including isolation and distress at the point of diagnosis, and throughout the multidisciplinary health journey. We have also established significant indicators of the ongoing QoL challenges faced by young people with Goldenhar Syndrome. Future work is underway exploring these issues further with teenagers, young people and adults with Goldenhar to develop a conceptual framework of their QoL. This will be used to develop a bespoke patient reported outcome (PRO) to give voice to the challenges children and young adults face during their medical journey

Investigation of the importance of rock chemistry for saxicolous lichen communities of the New Idria serpentinite mass, San Benito County, California, USA

Although several lichen inventories exist for European ultramafic sites, only four surveys of serpentine lichens for North America have been published to date. Of those, only one has been conducted in California. We conducted a survey of saxicolous lichens from ultramafic rocks (including nephrite, partially serpentinized peridotite, and serpentinite) and non-ultramafic rocks (including silica-carbonate, shale, and sandstone) at the New Idria serpentinite mass, San Benito County, California. X-ray Fluorescence Analysis of the rocks from which the lichens were collected revealed significant elemental differences between the ultramafic and non-ultramafic rocks for 26 of the 32 major and trace elements analyzed. We identified a total of 119 species of lichenized and lichenicolous fungi; 60 species were restricted to ultramafic substrata, 19 to silica-carbonate, and 15 to shale and sandstone. Only 4 species were shared in common. A permutational multivariate analysis of variance (perMANOVA) test revealed significant differences in lichen assemblages between ultramafic and non-ultramafic rocks at the species level but not at the generic level, with species richness (alpha-diversity) significantly greater at the ultramafic sites. We suggest that, although differences in geochemistry clearly influence the lichen community composition, other factors, especially substratum age and the physical characteristics of the rock, are of equal, if not greater, importance. Of all the species collected, six, Buellia aethalea, B. ocellata, Caloplaca oblongula, Rhizocarpon saurinum, Thelocarpon laureri, and Trapelia obtegens, are reported new to California, along with an apparently previously undescribed Solenopsora sp. The rest of the species encountered are relatively frequent in the lichen flora of southern and central California, except Aspicilia praecrenata, a rare California endemic that we collected on both ultramafic and non-ultramafic rocks

Direct and indirect contacts between cattle farms in north-west England

Little is known regarding the types and frequencies of contact that exist between farms and which of these may act as pathogen transmission routes; however it is likely that farms demonstrate considerable heterogeneity in such contacts. In this cross-sectional study, we explored the direct and indirect contact types and frequencies that exist between cattle farms within a region, focusing on potential routes of pathogen transmission. The owners/managers of 56 farms located in a 10 km by 10 km study area in north-west England were administered an interview-based questionnaire between June and September 2005. Information was obtained relating to contact types and frequencies, including those involving animal movements, equipment sharing between farms and any contractors or companies visiting the farms. The data was explored using hierarchical cluster analysis and network analysis. There was considerable variation between farms arising from different contact types. Some networks exhibited great connectivity, incorporating approximately 90% of the farms interviewed in a single component, whilst other networks were more fragmented, with multiple small components (sets of connected farms not linked with other farms). A range of factors influencing contact between farms were identified. For example, contiguous farms were more likely to be linked via other contacts, such as sharing of equipment and direct farm-to-farm animal movements (p < 0.001 and p = 0.02, respectively). The frequency of contacts was also investigated; it is likely that the amount of contact a farm receives from a company or contractor and whether or not biosecurity is performed after contact would impact on disease transmission potential. We found considerable heterogeneity in contact frequency and that many company and contractor personnel undertook little biosecurity. These findings lead to greater understanding of inter-farm contact and may aid development of appropriate biosecurity practices and control procedures, and inform mathematical modelling of infectious diseases

Quantifying the carbon footprint of coastal construction – a new tool HRCAT

UK and European regulation aimed at achieving a low carbon society is currently not being sufficiently backed up by tools for the quantification of construction-related carbon emissions. Recent UK Government findings have highlighted that the amount of carbon emitted by construction and maintenance of infrastructure is largely unknown and that consistent carbon accounting is needed (BIS, 2010). It is expected that carbon accounting will become a standard requirement for engineering option appraisal and for any investment justification (be it project specific or at a national scale). Coastal schemes are no exception. Existing tools such as the Environment Agency Carbon Calculator are useful for the UK river and coastal protection market but currently lack the breadth of data and functionality required for the wider range of coastal construction works and for overseas schemes. This paper explains the process of development of a new carbon accounting tool suitable for coastal construction schemes, illustrating its application on a real breakwater option appraisal

Retrospective evaluation of foot-and-mouth disease vaccineeffectiveness in Turkey

AbstractFoot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is present in much of Turkey and its control is largely based on vaccination. The arrival of the FMD Asia-1 serotype in Turkey in 2011 caused particular concern, spreading rapidly westwards across the country towards the FMD free European Union. With no prior natural immunity, control of spread would rely heavily on vaccination.Unlike human vaccines, field protection is rarely evaluated directly for FMD vaccines. Between September 2011 and July 2012 we performed four retrospective outbreak investigations to assess the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of FMD Asia-1 vaccines in Turkey. Vaccine effectiveness is defined as the reduction in risk in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated individuals with similar virus exposure in the field.The four investigations included 12 villages and 1230 cattle >4 months of age. One investigation assessed the FMD Asia-1 Shamir vaccine, the other three evaluated the recently introduced FMD Asia-1 TUR 11 vaccine made using a field isolate of the FMD Asia-1 Sindh-08 lineage that had recently entered Turkey.After adjustment for confounding, the TUR 11 vaccine provided moderate protection against both clinical disease VE=69% [95% CI: 50%–81%] and infection VE=63% [95% CI: 29%–81%]. However, protection was variable with some herds with high vaccine coverage still experiencing high disease incidence. Some of this variability will be the result of the variation in virus challenge and immunity that occurs under field conditions.In the outbreak investigated there was no evidence that the Asia-1 Shamir vaccine provided adequate protection against clinical FMD with an incidence of 89% in single vaccinated cattle and 69% in those vaccinated two to five times.Based on these effectiveness estimates, vaccination alone is unlikely to produce the high levels of herd immunity needed to control FMD without additional control measures