The use of Real Options and Multi-Objective Optimisation in Flood Risk Management

The development of suitable long term flood risk intervention strategies is a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication but in addition complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of interventions, the area with the highest economical benefit and the most opportune time for implementation. All of these elements pose difficulties to decision makers. Recently, there has been a shift in the current practice for appraising potential strategies and consideration is now being given to ensure flexible, adaptive strategies to account for the uncertain climatic conditions. Real Options in particular is becoming an acknowledged approach to account for the future uncertainties inherent in a flood risk investment decision. Real Options facilitates adaptive strategies as it enables the value of flexibility to be explicitly included within the decision making process. Opportunities are provided for the decision maker to modify and update investments when knowledge of the future state comes to light. In this thesis the use of Real Options in flood risk management is investigated as a method to account for the uncertainties of climate change. Each Intervention strategy is purposely designed to capture a level of flexibility and have the ability to adapt in the future if required. A state of the art flood risk analysis tool is employed to evaluate the risk associated to each strategy over future points in time. In addition to Real Options, this thesis also explores the use of evolutionary optimisation algorithms to aid the decision making process when identifying the most appropriate long term strategies. Although the risk analysis tool is capable of quantifying the potential benefits attributed to a strategy, it is not necessarily able to identify the most appropriate. Methods are required which can search for the optimal solutions according to a range of performance metrics. Single and multi-objective genetic algorithms are investigated in this thesis as a method to search for the most appropriate long term intervention strategies. The Real Options concepts are combined with the evolutionary multiobjective optimisation algorithm to create a decision support methodology which is capable of searching for the most appropriate long term economical yet robust intervention strategies which are flexible to future change. The methodology is applied to two individual case studies, a section of the Thames Estuary and an area on the River Dodder. The results show the inclusion of flexibility is advantageous while the outputs provide decision makers with supplementary knowledge which previously has not been considered.HR Wallingfor

Characterization of IgE-mediated Cutaneous Immediate and Late-Phase Reactions in Non-Allergic Horses

ABSTRACT Objectives – To characterize the response of horse skin following intradermal injection of polyclonal rabbit anti-canine IgE (anti-IgE) and rabbit immunoglobulin G (IgG) in an attempt to develop a model of equine allergic skin disease. Study design - In vivo study. Animals – 10 Adult Thoroughbred horses. Methods –Horses were injected intradermally with one of two different concentrations of anti-IgE and rabbit immunoglobulin G (IgG). Wheal measurements and injection site biopsies were obtained before and 20 min, 6 hr, 24 hr, and 48 hr after injection. Tissue sections were stained with Hematoxylin and Eosin, Luna, and Toluidine Blue. Immunohistochemistry for CD3+, CD4+, and CD8+ cells was performed. Cells were counted in 1 mm2 of dermis and divided over four depths for standard stains: superficial dermal, superficial follicular, deep follicular, and deep follicular to adnexal. The superficial dermis was evaluated in immunohistochemistry sections. Results – Lower concentrations of anti-IgE produced suboptimal responses, so the higher concentration injections were evaluated. Anti-IgE wheals were significantly larger than IgG wheals at 20 min, 6 hr, and 24 hr after injection. Anti-IgE injected skin had significantly more degranulated mast cells than IgG injected skin and there were significantly more inflammatory cells (6 hr, 24 hr), eosinophils (6hr, 24hr, 48hr), and neutrophils (6 hr). Eosinophil counts significantly increased in anti-IgE samples in the deeper but not superficial dermis when compared to IgG samples. There were more eosinophils in the deeper dermis of anti-IgE injected skin. There were no significant differences between anti-IgE and IgG injected skin for CD3+, CD4+, or CD8+ cells. Conclusion - Injection of anti-IgE antibodies at a higher concentration was associated with the development of gross and microscopic inflammation that was characterized by mast cell degranulation and accumulation of inflammatory cells, particularly eosinophils and neutrophils. This pattern was similar to that seen in horses with spontaneous allergic skin disease, although lymphocytes were not increased. Clinical Relevance - This study documents the response to intradermal anti-IgE injection in horses and demonstrates the potential use of this model for studying equine allergic skin disease

Adaptive flood risk management under climate change uncertainty using real options and optimization

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: oodward, M., Kapelan, Z. and Gouldby, B. (2014), Adaptive Flood Risk Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty Using Real Options and Optimization. Risk Analysis, 34: 75–92, which has been published in final form at 10.1111/risa.12088. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving: http://olabout.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-820227.html#termsIt is well recognized that adaptive and flexible flood risk strategies are required to account for future uncertainties. Development of such strategies is, however, a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication, but, in addition, complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of mitigation measures, or interventions. There are a range of economic and environmental performance measures that require consideration, and the spatial and temporal aspects of evaluating the performance of these is complex. All these elements pose severe difficulties to decisionmakers. This article describes a decision support methodology that has the capability to assess the most appropriate set of interventions to make in a flood system and the opportune time to make these interventions, given the future uncertainties. The flood risk strategies have been explicitly designed to allow for flexible adaptive measures by capturing the concepts of real options and multiobjective optimization to evaluate potential flood risk management opportunities. A state-of-the-art flood risk analysis tool is employed to evaluate the risk associated to each strategy over future points in time and a multiobjective genetic algorithm is utilized to search for the optimal adaptive strategies. The modeling system has been applied to a reach on the Thames Estuary (London, England), and initial results show the inclusion of flexibility is advantageous, while the outputs provide decisionmakers with supplementary knowledge that previously has not been considered.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs/Environment Agency Joint Research Programme on Flood and Coastal DefenceUnited Kingdom Water Industry ResearchOffice of Public Works DublinNorthern Ireland Rivers Agenc

Coastal road asset management: Dealing with uncertainty using quantitative erosion monitoring and modelling

The A183 is an essential transportation link in the northeast UK that joins coastal areas from South Shields to Sunderland. The route runs through the hinterland of Marsden Bay and concerns have been raised about the proximity of the road to the eroding cliff line. The Shoreline Management Plan (Lane and Guthrie, 2007) sets out the overarching management policy in the area and, based on the analyses of historic map data, uses projected coastal cliff retreat rates of 0.1 – 0.2 m a-1, although more recent investigations have suggested the rates may be nearer 0.04 – 0.1 m a-1. Quantitative data on the true rates and nature of cliff erosion are scarce and asset management decisions typically use the higher rate of 0.2 m a-1 when considering the potential impact on road operations and lifespan in order to account for uncertainty and future sea-level rise; which is additionally used to accelerate the predicted rates of retreat. Consequently, an enhanced high order estimate of cliff erosion rates has restricted the serviceability of the A183 to within 20 – 50 years, and there are three areas (pinch points) of particular concern where the close proximity of the cliff line threatens the safe operation of the road. This approach and the data it uses suggest that significant and potentially costly decisions may soon be required to ensure the viability of this vital transport corridor. Set against the context of assumed high cliff erosion rates, and further predicted increases to this metric, this work presents the results of a re-evaluation of existing map and aerial imagery data that highlights the typically high uncertainty associated with historic map data. The errors often exceed the changes being detected in rock cliffs, producing contradictory results and variability in processing and interpretation that restricts the reliability of the data used in current policy decisions. Using a significance-based analysis, questions are raised about how appropriate it is to reduce a three-dimensional recession process down to a single linear retreat. To provide a more appropriate and accurate assessment of the erosion occurring here we present the results of a monitoring approach of the Marsden Bay site using three-dimensional survey analyses to improve understanding of cliff failures at the site and ultimately to aid policy decisions

Seed quantity affects the fungal community composition detected using metabarcoding

Acknowledgements We gratefully acknowledge COST Action FP 1406 “Pine pitch canker—strategies for management of Gibberella circinata in greenhouses and forests” (PINESTRENGTH), for supporting F.O. in this work. M.C. is supported by Te Swedish Research Council FORMAS (grant number 2018-00966). S.W. was part-funded by the UK Forestry Commission. Permission has been obtained for collection of seeds for the study.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Decoding Complex Erosion Responses for the Mitigation of Coastal Rockfall Hazards Using Repeat Terrestrial LiDAR

A key factor limiting our understanding of rock slope behavior and associated geohazards is the interaction between internal and external system controls on the nature, rates, and timing of rockfall activity. We use high-resolution, monthly terrestrial light detection and ranging (LiDAR) surveys over a 2 year monitoring period to quantify rockfall patterns across a 0.6 km-long (15.3 × 103 m2) section of a limestone rock cliff on the northeast coast of England, where uncertainty in rates of change threaten the effective planning and operational management of a key coastal cliff top road. Internal system controls, such as cliff material characteristics and foreshore geometry, dictate rockfall characteristics and background patterns of activity and demonstrate that layer-specific analyses of rockfall inventories and sequencing patterns are essential to better understand the timing and nature of rockfall risks. The influence of external environmental controls, notably storm activity, is also evaluated, and increased storminess corresponds to detectable rises in both total and mean rockfall volume and the volumetric contribution of large (>10 m3) rockfalls at the cliff top during these periods. Transient convergence of the cumulative magnitude–frequency power law scaling exponent (ɑ) during high magnitude events signals a uniform erosion response across the wider cliff system that applies to all lithologies. The tracking of rockfall distribution metrics from repeat terrestrial LiDAR in this way demonstrably improves the ability to identify, monitor, and forecast short-term variations in rockfall hazards, and, as such, provides a powerful new approach for mitigating the threats and impacts of coastal erosion

Seed quantity affects the fungal community composition detected using metabarcoding

Pest introductions via trade in tree seed may result from a lack of adequate survey and validation protocols. Developing better diagnostic protocols to identify potentially harmful pests and pathogens in forest tree seed is of critical importance. High-throughput sequencing-based barcoding and metabarcoding provide effective tools for screening potentially harmful organisms in various plant materials, including seeds. However, the sample size needed to detect the total microorganism diversity of a community is a major challenge in microbiome studies. In this work, we examined how increasing sample size (ranging between 100 and 1000 seeds) influences diversity of fungal communities detected by high throughput sequencing in Pinus sylvestris seeds. Our results showed that as sample size increased, fungal alpha diversity also increased. Beta-diversity estimators detected significant differences between the mycobiota from different samples. However, taxonomic and functional diversity were not correlated with sample size. In addition, we found that increasing the number of PCR replicates resulted in a higher abundance of plant pathogens. We concluded that for the purpose of screening for potentially harmful pathogens using HTS, greater efforts should be made to increase the sample size and replicates when testing tree seed

Arrival of Paleo-Indians to the Southern Cone of South America: New Clues from Mitogenomes

With analyses of entire mitogenomes, studies of Native American mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation have entered the final phase of phylogenetic refinement: the dissection of the founding haplogroups into clades that arose in America during and after human arrival and spread. Ages and geographic distributions of these clades could provide novel clues on the colonization processes of the different regions of the double continent. As for the Southern Cone of South America, this approach has recently allowed the identification of two local clades (D1g and D1j) whose age estimates agree with the dating of the earliest archaeological sites in South America, indicating that Paleo-Indians might have reached that region from Beringia in less than 2000 years. In this study, we sequenced 46 mitogenomes belonging to two additional clades, termed B2i2 (former B2l) and C1b13, which were recently identified on the basis of mtDNA control-region data and whose geographical distributions appear to be restricted to Chile and Argentina. We confirm that their mutational motifs most likely arose in the Southern Cone region. However, the age estimate for B2i2 and C1b13 (11–13,000 years) appears to be younger than those of other local clades. The difference could reflect the different evolutionary origins of the distinct South American-specific sub-haplogroups, with some being already present, at different times and locations, at the very front of the expansion wave in South America, and others originating later in situ, when the tribalization process had already begun. A delayed origin of a few thousand years in one of the locally derived populations, possibly in the central part of Chile, would have limited the geographical and ethnic diffusion of B2i2 and explain the present-day occurrence that appears to be mainly confined to the Tehuelche and Araucanian-speaking grou

Effect of pectin, lecithin, and antacid feed supplements (Egusin®) on gastric ulcer scores, gastric fluid pH and blood gas values in horses

BACKGROUND: The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effects of two commercial feed supplements, Egusin 250(®) [E-250] and Egusin SLH(®) [E-SLH], on gastric ulcer scores, gastric fluid pH, and blood gas values in stall-confined horses undergoing feed-deprivation. METHODS: Nine Thoroughbred horses were used in a three-period crossover study. For the three treatment groups, sweet feed was mixed with E-250, E-SLH, or nothing (control group) and fed twice daily. Horses were treated for 21 days, then an additional 7 days while on an alternating feed-deprivation model to induce or worsen ulcers (period one). In periods two and three, horses (n=6) were treated for an additional 7 days after feed-deprivation. Gastroscopies were performed on day -1 (n=9), day 21 (n=9), day 28 (n=9) and day 35 (n=6). Gastric juice pH was measured and gastric ulcer scores were assigned. Venous blood gas values were also measured. RESULTS: Gastric ulcers in control horses significantly decreased after 21 days, but there was no difference in ulcer scores when compared to the Egusin® treated horses. NG gastric ulcer scores significantly increased in E-250 and control horses on day 28 compared to day 21 as a result of intermittent feed-deprivation, but no treatment effect was observed. NG ulcer scores remained high in the control group but significantly decreased in the E-SLH- and E-250-treated horses by day 35. Gastric juice pH values were low and variable and no treatment effect was observed. Mean blood pCO(2) values were significantly increased two hours after feeding in treated horses compared to controls, whereas mean blood TCO(2) values increased in the 24 hour sample, but did not exceed 38 mmol/l. CONCLUSIONS: The feed-deprivation model increased NG gastric ulcer severity in the horses. However, by day 35, Egusin(®) treated horses had less severe NG gastric ulcers compared to untreated control horses. After 35 days, Egusin(®) products tested here ameliorate the severity of gastric ulcers in stall-confined horses after feed stress

Multiobjective optimization for improved management of flood risk

Journal ArticleEffective flood risk management requires consideration of a range of different mitigation measures. Depending on the location, these could include structural or nonstructural measures as well as maintenance regimes for existing levee systems. Risk analysis models are used to quantify the benefits, in terms of risk reduction, when introducing different measures; further investigation is required to identify the most appropriate solution to implement. Effective flood risk management decision making requires consideration of a range of performance criteria. Determining the better performing strategies, according to multiple criteria, can be a challenge. This article describes the development of a decision support system that couples a multiobjective optimization algorithm with a flood risk analysis model and an automated cost model. The system has the ability to generate potential mitigation measures that are implemented at different points in time. It then optimizes the performance of the mitigation measures against multiple criteria. The decision support system is applied to an area of the Thames Estuary and the results obtained demonstrate the benefits multiobjective optimization can bring to flood risk management. © 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs/Environment Agency (Defra/EA) Joint Research Programme on Flood and Coastal DefenceUnited Kingdom Water Industry Research (UKWIR)Office of Public Works (OPW) DublinNorthern Ireland Rivers Agency (DARDNI