Superposition of gravity waves with different propagation characteristics observed by airborne and space-borne infrared sounders

Many gravity wave analyses, based on either observations or model simulations, assume the presence of only a single dominant wave. This paper shows that there are much more complex cases with gravity waves from multiple sources crossing each others\u27 paths. A complex gravity wave structure consisting of a superposition of multiple wave packets was observed above southern Scandinavia on 28 January 2016 with the Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA). The tomographic measurement capability of GLORIA enabled a detailed 3-D reconstruction of the gravity wave field and the identification of multiple wave packets with different horizontal and vertical scales. The larger-scale gravity waves with horizontal wavelengths of around 400 km could be characterised using a 3-D wave-decomposition method. The smaller-scale wave components with horizontal wavelengths below 200 km were discussed by visual inspection. For the larger-scale gravity wave components, a combination of gravity-wave ray-tracing calculations and ERA5 reanalysis fields identified orography as well as a jet-exit region and a low-pressure system as possible sources. All gravity waves are found to propagate upward into the middle stratosphere, but only the orographic waves stay directly above their source. The comparison with ERA5 also shows that ray tracing provides reasonable results even for such complex cases with multiple overlapping wave packets. Despite their coarser vertical resolution compared to GLORIA measurements, co-located AIRS measurements in the middle stratosphere are in good agreement with the ray tracing and ERA5 results, proving once more the validity of simple ray-tracing models. Thus, this paper demonstrates that the high-resolution GLORIA observations in combination with simple ray-tracing calculations can provide an important source of information for enhancing our understanding of gravity wave propagation

Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions

Significant reductions in stratospheric ozone occur inside the polar vortices each spring when chlorine radicals produced by heterogeneous reactions on cold particle surfaces in winter destroy ozone mainly in two catalytic cycles, the ClO dimer cycle and the ClO/BrO cycle. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are responsible for most of the chlorine currently present in the stratosphere, have been banned by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and the ozone layer is predicted to recover to 1980 levels within the next few decades. During the same period, however, climate change is expected to alter the temperature, circulation patterns and chemical composition in the stratosphere, and possible geo-engineering ventures to mitigate climate change may lead to additional changes. To realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to such influences requires the correct representation of all relevant processes. The European project RECONCILE has comprehensively addressed remaining questions in the context of polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify the rates of some of the most relevant, yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes. To this end RECONCILE used a broad approach of laboratory experiments, two field missions in the Arctic winter 2009/10 employing the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica and an extensive match ozone sonde campaign, as well as microphysical and chemical transport modelling and data assimilation. Some of the main outcomes of RECONCILE are as follows: (1) vortex meteorology: the 2009/10 Arctic winter was unusually cold at stratospheric levels during the six-week period from mid-December 2009 until the end of January 2010, with reduced transport and mixing across the polar vortex edge; polar vortex stability and how it is influenced by dynamic processes in the troposphere has led to unprecedented, synoptic-scale stratospheric regions with temperatures below the frost point; in these regions stratospheric ice clouds have been observed, extending over >106km2 during more than 3 weeks. (2) Particle microphysics: heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles in the absence of ice has been unambiguously demonstrated; conversely, the synoptic scale ice clouds also appear to nucleate heterogeneously; a variety of possible heterogeneous nuclei has been characterised by chemical analysis of the non-volatile fraction of the background aerosol; substantial formation of solid particles and denitrification via their sedimentation has been observed and model parameterizations have been improved. (3) Chemistry: strong evidence has been found for significant chlorine activation not only on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) but also on cold binary aerosol; laboratory experiments and field data on the ClOOCl photolysis rate and other kinetic parameters have been shown to be consistent with an adequate degree of certainty; no evidence has been found that would support the existence of yet unknown chemical mechanisms making a significant contribution to polar ozone loss. (4) Global modelling: results from process studies have been implemented in a prognostic chemistry climate model (CCM); simulations with improved parameterisations of processes relevant for polar ozone depletion are evaluated against satellite data and other long term records using data assimilation and detrended fluctuation analysis. Finally, measurements and process studies within RECONCILE were also applied to the winter 2010/11, when special meteorological conditions led to the highest chemical ozone loss ever observed in the Arctic. In addition to quantifying the 2010/11 ozone loss and to understand its causes including possible connections to climate change, its impacts were addressed, such as changes in surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the densely populated northern mid-latitudes

Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions : (RECONCILE) ; activities and results

The international research project RECONCILE has addressed central questions regarding polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify some of the most relevant yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes and thereby improve prognostic modelling capabilities to realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to climate change. This overview paper outlines the scope and the general approach of RECONCILE, and it provides a summary of observations and modelling in 2010 and 2011 that have generated an in many respects unprecedented dataset to study processes in the Arctic winter stratosphere. Principally, it summarises important outcomes of RECONCILE including (i) better constraints and enhanced consistency on the set of parameters governing catalytic ozone destruction cycles, (ii) a better understanding of the role of cold binary aerosols in heterogeneous chlorine activation, (iii) an improved scheme of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) processes that includes heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and ice on non-volatile background aerosol leading to better model parameterisations with respect to denitrification, and (iv) long transient simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) updated based on the results of RECONCILE that better reproduce past ozone trends in Antarctica and are deemed to produce more reliable predictions of future ozone trends. The process studies and the global simulations conducted in RECONCILE show that in the Arctic, ozone depletion uncertainties in the chemical and microphysical processes are now clearly smaller than the sensitivity to dynamic variability

Time to get personal? The impact of researchers choices on the selection of treatment targets using the experience sampling methodology:The impact of researchers choices on the selection of treatment targets using the experience sampling methodology

OBJECTIVE: One of the promises of the experience sampling methodology (ESM) is that a statistical analysis of an individual’s emotions, cognitions and behaviors in everyday-life could be used to identify relevant treatment targets. A requisite for clinical implementation is that outcomes of such person-specific time-series analyses are not wholly contingent on the researcher performing them. METHODS: To evaluate this, we crowdsourced the analysis of one individual patient’s ESM data to 12 prominent research teams, asking them what symptom(s) they would advise the treating clinician to target in subsequent treatment. RESULTS: Variation was evident at different stages of the analysis, from preprocessing steps (e.g., variable selection, clustering, handling of missing data) to the type of statistics and rationale for selecting targets. Most teams did include a type of vector autoregressive model, examining relations between symptoms over time. Although most teams were confident their selected targets would provide useful information to the clinician, not one recommendation was similar: both the number (0–16) and nature of selected targets varied widely. CONCLUSION: This study makes transparent that the selection of treatment targets based on personalized models using ESM data is currently highly conditional on subjective analytical choices and highlights key conceptual and methodological issues that need to be addressed in moving towards clinical implementation

Non-orographic gravity waves and turbulence caused by merging jet streams

Jet streams are important sources of non-orographic internal gravity waves and clear air turbulence (CAT). We analyze non-orographic gravity waves and CAT during a merger of the polar front jet stream (PFJ) with the subtropical jet stream (STJ) above the southern Atlantic. Thereby, we use a novel combination of airborne observations covering the meso-scale and turbulent scale in combination with high-resolution deterministic short-term forecasts. Coherent phase lines of temperature perturbations by gravity waves stretching along a highly sheared tropopause fold are simulated by the ECMWF IFS (integrated forecast system) forecasts. During the merging event, the PFJ reverses its direction from approximately antiparallel to parallel with respect to the STJ, going along with strong wind shear and horizontal deformation. Temperature perturbations in limb-imaging and lidar observations onboard the research aircraft HALO during the SouthTRAC campaign show remarkable agreement with the IFS data. Ten hours earlier, the IFS data show an “X-shaped” pattern in the temperature perturbations emanating from the sheared tropopause fold. Tendencies of the IFS wind components show that these gravity waves are excited by spontaneous emission adjusting the strongly divergent flow when the PFJ impinges the STJ. In situ observations of temperature and wind components at 100 Hz confirm upward propagation of the probed portion of the gravity waves. They furthermore reveal embedded episodes of light-to-moderate CAT, Kelvin Helmholtz waves, and indications for partial wave reflection. Patches of low Richardson numbers in the IFS data coincide with the CAT observations, suggesting that this event was accessible to turbulence forecasting

Bringing New Opportunities to Develop Statistical Software and Data Analysis Tools in Romania

In the last decade, open source programming technology is widely used among statisticians for developing a new statistical software and data analysis. This is R software environment and the main objective of this paper is to underline the importance of R for statistical computations, data analysis, visualization and applications in various fields. Regarding to this, the paper is primarily intended for people already familiar with common statistical concepts. Thus the statistical methods used to illustrate the R performance are not explained in detail. The main intention is to offer an overview to get started, to motivate beginners by illustrating the flexibility of R, and to show how simply it enables the user to carry out statistical computations

Genetic insights into resting heart rate and its role in cardiovascular disease

Resting heart rate is associated with cardiovascular diseases and mortality in observational and Mendelian randomization studies. The aims of this study are to extend the number of resting heart rate associated genetic variants and to obtain further insights in resting heart rate biology and its clinical consequences. A genome-wide meta-analysis of 100 studies in up to 835,465 individuals reveals 493 independent genetic variants in 352 loci, including 68 genetic variants outside previously identified resting heart rate associated loci. We prioritize 670 genes and in silico annotations point to their enrichment in cardiomyocytes and provide insights in their ECG signature. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses indicate that higher genetically predicted resting heart rate increases risk of dilated cardiomyopathy, but decreases risk of developing atrial fibrillation, ischemic stroke, and cardio-embolic stroke. We do not find evidence for a linear or non-linear genetic association between resting heart rate and all-cause mortality in contrast to our previous Mendelian randomization study. Systematic alteration of key differences between the current and previous Mendelian randomization study indicates that the most likely cause of the discrepancy between these studies arises from false positive findings in previous one-sample MR analyses caused by weak-instrument bias at lower P-value thresholds. The results extend our understanding of resting heart rate biology and give additional insights in its role in cardiovascular disease development

Superposition of gravity waves with different propagation characteristics observed by airborne and space-borne infrared sounders

Many gravity wave analyses, based on either observations or model simulations, assume the presence of only a single dominant wave. This paper shows that there are much more complex cases with gravity waves from multiple sources crossing each others' paths. A complex gravity wave structure consisting of a superposition of multiple wave packets was observed above southern Scandinavia on 28 January 2016 with the Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA). The tomographic measurement capability of GLORIA enabled a detailed 3-D reconstruction of the gravity wave field and the identification of multiple wave packets with different horizontal and vertical scales. The larger-scale gravity waves with horizontal wavelengths of around 400 km could be characterised using a 3-D wave-decomposition method. The smaller-scale wave components with horizontal wavelengths below 200 km were discussed by visual inspection. For the larger-scale gravity wave components, a combination of gravity-wave ray-tracing calculations and ERA5 reanalysis fields identified orography as well as a jet-exit region and a low-pressure system as possible sources. All gravity waves are found to propagate upward into the middle stratosphere, but only the orographic waves stay directly above their source. The comparison with ERA5 also shows that ray tracing provides reasonable results even for such complex cases with multiple overlapping wave packets. Despite their coarser vertical resolution compared to GLORIA measurements, co-located AIRS measurements in the middle stratosphere are in good agreement with the ray tracing and ERA5 results, proving once more the validity of simple ray-tracing models. Thus, this paper demonstrates that the high-resolution GLORIA observations in combination with simple ray-tracing calculations can provide an important source of information for enhancing our understanding of gravity wave propagation