The Compensation mechanism in the rains model: the Norwegian targets for acidification.

The RAINS model is used to calculate cost minimising abatement policies subject to European-wide spatial restrictions on pollution. The principle for choosing environmental targets for the 1994 Oslo Protocol was closing a gap between benchmark- and critical loads for each grid with a uniform percentage. During the negotiations for the 1999 Gothenburg Protocol accumulated ecosystems exceedances was adapted as basis for gap closure, and overshooting of the constraints allowed as an option, provided compensation could be found within the same country. A theoretical discussion of this compensation mechanism is provided. A simulation study, using the full RAINS model, of the impact of different levels of targets for troublesome Norwegian grids is presented, and results in the form of changes in accumulated acidity excesses and costs for the participating countries are reported.Acid rain; RAINS; critical loads; gap closure; accumulated exceedances; compensation mechanism

Methodology for forecasting in the Swedish–Norwegian market for el-certificates

In this paper we describe a novel methodology for forecasting in the Swedish-Norwegian el-certificate market, which is a variant of a tradable green certificate scheme. For the forecasting, the el-certificate market is integrated in the electricity-market model EMPS, which has weekly to hourly time-step length, whereas the planning horizon can be several years. Strategies for the certificate inventory are calculated by stochastic dynamic programming, whereas penalty-rates for non-compliance during the annual settlement of certificates are determined endogenously.In the paper the methodology is described, and we show the performance of the model under different cases that can occur in the el-certificate market. The general results correspond to theoretical findings in previous studies for tradable green certificate markets, in particular that price-scenarios spread out in such a way that the unconditional expected value of certificates is relatively stable throughout the planning period. In addition the presented methodologies allows to assess the actual dynamics of the certificate price due to climatic uncertainty. Finally, special cases are indentified where the certificate price becomes excessively high respectively zero, due the design-specific dynamics of the penalty rate. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.Methodology for forecasting in the Swedish–Norwegian market for el-certificatesacceptedVersio

Applying endogenous learning models in energy system optimization

Conventional energy production based on fossil fuels causes emissions which contribute to global warming. Accurate energy system models are required for a cost-optimal transition to a zero-emission energy system, an endeavor that requires an accurate modeling of cost reductions due to technological learning effects. In this review, we summarize common methodologies for modeling technological learning and associated cost reductions. The focus is on learning effects in hydrogen production technologies due to their importance in a low-carbon energy system, as well as the application of endogenous learning in energy system models. Finally, we present an overview of the learning rates of relevant low-carbon technologies required to model future energy systems.Comment: review paper: main article (11 pages), appendices (8 pages), references (4 pages

Eine Thünen-Evaluierung von fisch- und fischereibezogenen Indikatoren der EU Meeresstrategie-Rahmenrichtlinie (MSRL)

Dieser Bericht stellt ein Bewertungsverfahren für die nationalen Indikatoren der Meeresstrategie-Rahmenrichtlinie (MSRL) vor, welche fischökologische Aspekte der Meeresumwelt oder die Auswirkungen von Fischerei erfassen sollen. Die Bewertung der MSRL-Indikatoren wurde vorgenommen, um den derzeit noch stattfindenden Auswahlprozess und die Operationalisierung der Indikatoren durch eine fachliche Einschätzung zu unterstützen. Es wurden insgesamt 23 MSRL-Indikatoren nach einem international erprobten Bewertungssystem gegen 15 Kriterien bewertet. Diese Kriterien berücksichtigten die Datenqualität, die Management-Praktikabilität und die konzeptionellen Qualitäten jedes Indikators. Die 15 Kriterien erlaubten somit eine genauere Betrachtung möglicher Defizite und die gezielte Erarbeitung von Empfehlungen zur Verbesserung der vorgestellten Indikatoren. Die exemplarische Bewertung durch die sieben Thünen-Expertinnen und -Experten zeigte, dass Indikatoren aus dem Fischereimanagement und den fischereiwissenschaftlichen Forschungsreisen grundsätzlich sehr gut bewertet wurden. Dies liegt daran, dass viele Indikatoren aus dem Fischereimanagement schon seit Jahrzehnten etabliert sind, als wissenschaftlich abgesichert gelten, sowie einen hohen Grad internationaler Abstimmung und eine relativ gute Datengrundlage aufweisen. Die Bewertungen von Indikatoren zu dem Zustand von Nahrungsnetzen oder benthischen Lebensräumen, sowie der Beifangintensitäten von Seevögeln und Meeressäugetieren wurden als schlechter eingeschätzt. Dies lag zum einen an der bisher mangelhaften Festlegung von Zielvorgaben (benthische Lebensräume), unzureichenden bzw. unpräzisen technischen Beschreibungen der Indikatoren und ihrer Messgrößen (Nahrungsnetze), sowie fehlender internationaler Abstimmung (Nahrungsnetze & benthische Lebensräume). Für Beifänge von Seevögeln und Meeressäugetieren fiel die Bewertung aufgrund der geringen Datenverfügbarkeit negativ aus. Um die Indikatoren mit schlechter Bewertung zu operationalisieren, sollte die technische Entwicklung auf internationaler Ebene vorangetrieben (Nahrungsnetze) und die Datengrundlagedurch intensiviertes Monitoring verbessert werden (benthische Lebensräume, Beifangindikatoren). Ein wesentlicher Teil der ausstehenden Arbeiten betrifft Bewertungsmethoden, sowie Bestimmung und Festlegung von Grenz- bzw. Zielwerten. Zwar liegen für viele Indikatoren Bewertungrschläge aus der wissenschaftlichen Literatur vor, es bedarf aber einer finalen politischen Abstimmung

The REPowerEU policy’s impact on the Nordic power system

Energy system models provide us with scenarios for the future energy system, supporting our understanding of the impact of societal changes and adopted policies. To front-load the EU’Fit for 55’ package for 2030 and targets of replacing imported natural gas with renewable electricity, the Nordic countries could contribute by exporting additional electricity to mainland Europe. This paper describes a comparative study including five energy system models – GENeSYS-MOD, ON-TIMES, IFE-TIMES-Norway, highRES, and IntERACT, exploring two decarbonisation scenarios leading up to 2050. The scenarios involved simulating an additional 30 TWh electricity export requirement from 2030. Key findings include Denmark and Norway emerging as major net exporters, with Denmark covering over 60% of the additional export. The models predict that 76%–82% of the new electricity production will come from wind power, split between onshore and offshore installations, highlighting significant investment requirements. These results underscore the Nordic countries’ capacity to support the EU’s renewable energy targets, with wind power being pivotal. This research offers a broad overview over different modelling tools and their behaviour and provides critical insights for policymakers, stressing the need for coordinated Nordic efforts to maximise the benefits of increased electricity exports while ensuring energy system stability and cost-efficiency.The REPowerEU policy’s impact on the Nordic power systempublishedVersio

Bioenergy and links to agriculture & LULUCF in a Nordic context

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Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the \u27business as usual\u27 climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5)8 representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness

Directional turnover towards larger-ranged plants over time and across habitats

Species turnover is ubiquitous. However, it remains unknown whether certain types of species are consistently gained or lost across different habitats. Here, we analysed the trajectories of 1827 plant species over time intervals of up to 78 years at 141 sites across mountain summits, forests, and lowland grasslands in Europe. We found, albeit with relatively small effect sizes, displacements of smaller- by larger-ranged species across habitats. Communities shifted in parallel towards more nutrient-demanding species, with species from nutrient-rich habitats having larger ranges. Because these species are typically strong competitors, declines of smaller-ranged species could reflect not only abiotic drivers of global change, but also biotic pressure from increased competition. The ubiquitous component of turnover based on species range size we found here may partially reconcile findings of no net loss in local diversity with global species loss, and link community-scale turnover to macroecological processes such as biotic homogenisation

The Stock Market Evaluation of IPO-Firm Takeovers

We conduct an event study to assess the stock market evaluation of public takeover announcements. Unlike the majority of previous research, we specifically focus on acquisitions targeted at newly public IPO-firms and show that the stock market positively evaluates these M&As as R&D. However, bidders' abnormal announcement returns are significantly lower for takeovers directed at targets with critical intangible assets and innovative capabilities inalienably bound to their initial owners than for those that have internally accumulated respective resources and capabilities. We explain these findings with the acquirer's post-acquisition dependence on continued access to the IPO-firm founders' target-specific human capital. Our results contribute to literature in that they show that the stock market perceives these potential impediments to successful exploitation of acquired strategic resources and thus identify a potential cause for heretofore mostly inconsistent evidence on bidder abnormal returns in corporate takeovers found in previous research

Safety of intravenous ferric carboxymaltose versus oral iron in patients with nondialysis-dependent CKD: an analysis of the 1-year FIND-CKD trial.

Background: The evidence base regarding the safety of intravenous (IV) iron therapy in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is incomplete and largely based on small studies of relatively short duration. Methods: FIND-CKD (ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00994318) was a 1-year, open-label, multicenter, prospective study of patients with nondialysis-dependent CKD, anemia and iron deficiency randomized (1:1:2) to IV ferric carboxymaltose (FCM), targeting higher (400-600 µg/L) or lower (100-200 µg/L) ferritin, or oral iron. A post hoc analysis of adverse event rates per 100 patient-years was performed to assess the safety of FCM versus oral iron over an extended period. Results: The safety population included 616 patients. The incidence of one or more adverse events was 91.0, 100.0 and 105.0 per 100 patient-years in the high ferritin FCM, low ferritin FCM and oral iron groups, respectively. The incidence of adverse events with a suspected relation to study drug was 15.9, 17.8 and 36.7 per 100 patient-years in the three groups; for serious adverse events, the incidence was 28.2, 27.9 and 24.3 per 100 patient-years. The incidence of cardiac disorders and infections was similar between groups. At least one ferritin level ≥800 µg/L occurred in 26.6% of high ferritin FCM patients, with no associated increase in adverse events. No patient with ferritin ≥800 µg/L discontinued the study drug due to adverse events. Estimated glomerular filtration rate remained the stable in all groups. Conclusions: These results further support the conclusion that correction of iron deficiency anemia with IV FCM is safe in patients with nondialysis-dependent CKD