Long-term high frequency measurements of ethane, benzene and methyl chloride at Ragged Point, Barbados: Identification of long-range transport events

Abstract Here we present high frequency long-term observations of ethane, benzene and methyl chloride from the AGAGE Ragged Point, Barbados, monitoring station made using a custom built GC-MS system. Our analysis focuses on the first three years of data (2005–2007) and on the interpretation of periodic episodes of high concentrations of these compounds. We focus specifically on an exemplar episode during September 2007 to assess if these measurements are impacted by long-range transport of biomass burning and biogenic emissions. We use the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion model, NAME, run forwards and backwards in time to identify transport of air masses from the North East of Brazil during these events. To assess whether biomass burning was the cause we used hot spots detected using the MODIS instrument to act as point sources for simulating the release of biomass burning plumes. Excellent agreement for the arrival time of the simulated biomass burning plumes and the observations of enhancements in the trace gases indicates that biomass burning strongly influenced these measurements. These modelling data were then used to determine the emissions required to match the observations and compared with bottom up estimates based on burnt area and literature emission factors. Good agreement was found between the two techniques highlight the important role of biomass burning. The modelling constrained by in situ observations suggests that the emission factors were representative of their known upper limits, with the in situ data suggesting slightly greater emissions of ethane than the literature emission factors account for. Further analysis was performed concluding only a small role for biogenic emissions of methyl chloride from South America impacting measurements at Ragged Point. These results highlight the importance of long-term high frequency measurements of NMHC and ODS and highlight how these data can be used to determine sources of emissions 1000’s km away.ATA would like to thank the GWR and the Met Office for the PhD funding that was useful in the initiation of this research and the Herchel Smith foundation for a Postdoctoral fellowship, and NCAS for funding. The operation of the AGAGE station at Ragged Point is supported by the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA, USA) (grants NNX07AE89G and NNX11AF17G to MIT) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA) (contract RA133R09CN0062).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from BioOne via http://dx.doi.org/10.12952/journal.elementa.00006

Genetic polymorphisms in the serotonin, dopamine and opioid pathways influence social attention in rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta)

Behaviour has a significant heritable component; however, unpicking the variants of interest in the neural circuits and molecular pathways that underpin these has proven difficult. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between known and new candidate genes from identified pathways and key behaviours for survival in 109 adult rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta). Eight genes involved in emotion were analysed for variation at a total of nine loci. Genetic data were then correlated with cognitive and observational measures of behaviour associated with wellbeing and survival using MCMC-based Bayesian GLMM in R, to account for relatedness within the macaque population. For four loci the variants genotyped were length polymorphisms (SLC6A4 5-hydroxytryptamine transporter length-polymorphic repeat (5-HTTLPR), SLC6A4 STin polymorphism, Tryptophan 5- hydroxylase 2 (TPH2) and Monoamine oxidase A (MAOA)) whilst for the other five (5- hydroxytryptamine receptor 2A (HTR2A), Dopamine Receptor D4 (DRD4), Oxytocin receptor (OXTR), Arginine vasopressin receptor 1A (AVPR1a), Opioid receptor mu(μ) 1 (OPRM1)) SNPs were analysed. STin genotype, DRD4 haplotype and OXTR haplotype were significantly associated with the cognitive and observational measures of behaviour associated with wellbeing and survival. Genotype for 5-HTTLPR, STin and AVPR1a, and haplotype for HTR2A, DRD4 and OXTR were significantly associated with the duration of behaviours including fear and anxiety. Understanding the biological underpinnings of individual variation in negative emotion (e.g., fear and anxiety), together with their impact on social behaviour (e.g., social attention including vigilance for threat) has application for managing primate populations in the wild and captivity, as well as potential translational application for understanding of the genetic basis of emotions in humans

The 2019 Raikoke volcanic eruption - Part 1: Dispersion model simulations and satellite retrievals of volcanic sulfur dioxide

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions can cause significant disruption to society, and numerical models are crucial for forecasting the dispersion of erupted material. Here we assess the skill and limitations of the Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) in simulating the dispersion of the sulfur dioxide (SO2) cloud from the 21–22 June 2019 eruption of the Raikoke volcano (48.3∘ N, 153.2∘ E). The eruption emitted around 1.5±0.2 Tg of SO2, which represents the largest volcanic emission of SO2 into the stratosphere since the 2011 Nabro eruption. We simulate the temporal evolution of the volcanic SO2 cloud across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and compare our model simulations to high-resolution SO2 measurements from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite SO2 products. We show that NAME accurately simulates the observed location and horizontal extent of the SO2 cloud during the first 2–3 weeks after the eruption but is unable, in its standard configuration, to capture the extent and precise location of the highest magnitude vertical column density (VCD) regions within the observed volcanic cloud. Using the structure–amplitude–location (SAL) score and the fractional skill score (FSS) as metrics for model skill, NAME shows skill in simulating the horizontal extent of the cloud for 12–17 d after the eruption where VCDs of SO2 (in Dobson units, DU) are above 1 DU. For SO2 VCDs above 20 DU, which are predominantly observed as small-scale features within the SO2 cloud, the model shows skill on the order of 2–4 d only. The lower skill for these high-SO2-VCD regions is partly explained by the model-simulated SO2 cloud in NAME being too diffuse compared to TROPOMI retrievals. Reducing the standard horizontal diffusion parameters used in NAME by a factor of 4 results in a slightly increased model skill during the first 5 d of the simulation, but on longer timescales the simulated SO2 cloud remains too diffuse when compared to TROPOMI measurements. The skill of NAME to simulate high SO2 VCDs and the temporal evolution of the NH-mean SO2 mass burden is dominated by the fraction of SO2 mass emitted into the lower stratosphere, which is uncertain for the 2019 Raikoke eruption. When emitting 0.9–1.1 Tg of SO2 into the lower stratosphere (11–18 km) and 0.4–0.7 Tg into the upper troposphere (8–11 km), the NAME simulations show a similar peak in SO2 mass burden to that derived from TROPOMI (1.4–1.6 Tg of SO2) with an average SO2 e-folding time of 14–15 d in the NH. Our work illustrates how the synergy between high-resolution satellite retrievals and dispersion models can identify potential limitations of dispersion models like NAME, which will ultimately help to improve dispersion modelling efforts of volcanic SO2 clouds. </jats:p

Satellite detection, long-range transport, and air quality impacts of volcanic sulfur dioxide from the 2014–2015 flood lava eruption at Bárðarbunga (Iceland)

The 2014–2015 Bárðarbunga-Veiðivötn fissure eruption at Holuhraun produced about 1.5 km3 of lava, making it the largest eruption in Iceland in more than 200 years. Over the course of the eruption, daily volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions exceeded daily SO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources in Europe in 2010 by at least a factor of 3. We present surface air quality observations from across Northern Europe together with satellite remote sensing data and model simulations of volcanic SO2 for September 2014. We show that volcanic SO2 was transported in the lowermost troposphere over long distances and detected by air quality monitoring stations up to 2750 km away from the source. Using retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), we calculate an average daily SO2 mass burden of 99 ± 49 kilotons (kt) of SO2 from OMI and 61 ± 18 kt of SO2 from IASI for September 2014. This volcanic burden is at least a factor of 2 greater than the average SO2 mass burden between 2007 and 2009 due to anthropogenic emissions from the whole of Europe. Combining the observational data with model simulations using the United Kingdom Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment model, we are able to constrain SO2 emission rates to up to 120 kilotons per day (kt/d) during early September 2014, followed by a decrease to 20–60 kt/d between 6 and 22 September 2014, followed by a renewed increase to 60–120 kt/d until the end of September 2014. Based on these fluxes, we estimate that the eruption emitted a total of 2.0 ± 0.6 Tg of SO2 during September 2014, in good agreement with ground-based remote sensing and petrological estimates. Although satellite-derived and model-simulated vertical column densities of SO2 agree well, the model simulations are biased low by up to a factor of 8 when compared to surface observations of volcanic SO2 on 6–7 September 2014 in Ireland. These biases are mainly due to relatively small horizontal and vertical positional errors in the simulations of the volcanic plume occurring over transport distances of thousands of kilometers. Although the volcanic air pollution episodes were transient and lava-dominated volcanic eruptions are sporadic events, the observations suggest that (i) during an eruption, volcanic SO2 measurements should be assimilated for near real-time air quality forecasting and (ii) existing air quality monitoring networks should be retained or extended to monitor SO2 and other volcanic pollutants

Process evaluation of a randomised pilot trial of home-based rehabilitation compared to usual care in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and their caregiver’s

Background: Whilst heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) affects almost 50 percent of the HF population, evidence-based treatment options remain limited. However, there is growing evidence of the potential value of exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation. This study reports the process evaluation of the Rehabilitation Enablement in Chronic Heart Failure (REACH-HF) intervention for HFpEF patients and their caregivers conducted as part of the REACH-HFpEF pilot trial. Methods: Process evaluation sub-study parallel to a single centre (Tayside, Scotland) randomised controlled pilot trial with qualitative assessment of both intervention fidelity delivery and HFpEF patients’ and caregivers’ experiences. The REACH-HF intervention consisted of self-help manual for patients and caregivers, facilitated over 12 weeks by trained healthcare professionals. Interviews were conducted following completion of intervention in a purposeful sample of 15 HFpEF patients and 7 caregivers. Results: Qualitative information from the facilitator interactions and interviews identified three key themes for patients and caregivers: (1) understanding their condition, (2) emotional consequences of HF, and (3) patients’ and caregivers’ responses to the REACH-HF intervention. The differing professional backgrounds demonstrate the possibility of delivering REACH-HF by either existing HF or cardiac rehabilitation services of a combination of the two. Conclusions: The REACH-HF home-based facilitated intervention for HFpEF appears feasible and well accepted model for delivery of a cardiac rehabilitation intervention, with the potential to address key unmet needs of patients and their caregivers who are often excluded from service provision and current CR programmes. Results of this study will inform a recently funded full multicentre randomised clinical trial

Volcanic Gases:Silent Killers

This is the accepted manuscript. The final version is available at http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F11157_2015_14.Volcanic gases are insidious and often overlooked hazards. The effects of volcanic gases on life may be direct, such as asphyxiation, respiratory diseases and skin burns; or indirect, e.g. regional famine caused by the cooling that results from the presence of sulfate aerosols injected into the stratosphere during explosive eruptions. Although accounting for fewer fatalities overall than some other forms of volcanic hazards, history has shown that volcanic gases are implicated frequently in small-scale fatal events in diverse volcanic and geothermal regions. In order to mitigate risks due to volcanic gases, we must identify the challenges. The first relates to the difficulty of monitoring and hazard communication: gas concentrations may be elevated over large areas and may change rapidly with time. Developing alert and early warning systems that will be communicated in a timely fashion to the population is logistically difficult. The second challenge focuses on education and understanding risk. An effective response to warnings requires an educated population and a balanced weighing of conflicting cultural beliefs or economic interests with risk. In the case of gas hazards, this may also mean having the correct personal protection equipment, knowing where to go in case of evacuation and being aware of increased risk under certain sets of meteorological conditions. In this chapter we review several classes of gas hazard, the risks associated with them, potential risk mitigation strategies and ways of communicating risk. We discuss carbon dioxide flows and accumulations, including lake overturn events which have accounted for the greatest number of direct fatalities, the hazards arising from the injection of sulfate aerosol into the troposphere and into the stratosphere. A significant hazard facing the UK and northern Europe is a “Laki”-style eruption in Iceland, which will be associated with increased risk of respiratory illness and mortality due to poor air quality when gases and aerosols are dispersed over Europe. We discuss strategies for preparing for a future Laki style event and implications for society

Vitamin D supplementation and breast cancer prevention : a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

In recent years, the scientific evidence linking vitamin D status or supplementation to breast cancer has grown notably. To investigate the role of vitamin D supplementation on breast cancer incidence, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing vitamin D with placebo or no treatment. We used OVID to search MEDLINE (R), EMBASE and CENTRAL until April 2012. We screened the reference lists of included studies and used the “Related Article” feature in PubMed to identify additional articles. No language restrictions were applied. Two reviewers independently extracted data on methodological quality, participants, intervention, comparison and outcomes. Risk Ratios and 95% Confident Intervals for breast cancer were pooled using a random-effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 test. In sensitivity analysis, we assessed the impact of vitamin D dosage and mode of administration on treatment effects. Only two randomized controlled trials fulfilled the pre-set inclusion criteria. The pooled analysis included 5372 postmenopausal women. Overall, Risk Ratios and 95% Confident Intervals were 1.11 and 0.74–1.68. We found no evidence of heterogeneity. Neither vitamin D dosage nor mode of administration significantly affected breast cancer risk. However, treatment efficacy was somewhat greater when vitamin D was administered at the highest dosage and in combination with calcium (Risk Ratio 0.58, 95% Confident Interval 0.23–1.47 and Risk Ratio 0.93, 95% Confident Interval 0.54–1.60, respectively). In conclusions, vitamin D use seems not to be associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer development in postmenopausal women. However, the available evidence is still limited and inadequate to draw firm conclusions. Study protocol code: FARM8L2B5L