Empirical analysis of economic growth

International evidence on growth rates in per capita incomes reveals persistent differences in development patterns among nations, and shows that the world distribution of per capita income is multi-modal with several basins of attraction. This dissertation investigates the factors underlying these international variations in both the level and rate of growth of per capita incomes. The first essay examines whether nonlinearities in the aggregate production function can explain parameter heterogeneity in the Solow (1956) growth regressions. The choice of and alternative specification of the production function is justified by showing that cross-country level regressions are more consistent with the more general Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) than the Cobb-Douglas technology which currently underlies the Solow model. Then, by using an endogenous threshold methodology, we find that the Solow model, using the nonlinear CES technology, implies more robust parameter heterogeneity that is consistent with the existence of multiple regimes. The second essay uses Bayesian Model Averaging methodology to ascertain whether the determinants of economic growth are the same in Africa as elsewhere. Specifically, we estimate the posterior probability of a number of possible explanatory variables and potential cross-country regression models. We find that in both the short and long run, determinants of growth in Africa are different from the rest of the world. In addition, our findings suggest that in contrast to the rest of the world, initial conditions are more important in explaining African growth than policy and institutional variables. The third essay investigates the role of initial conditions as threshold variables in economic development. Using the endogenous threshold methodology we test whether initial stocks of human capital, initial level of economic development and natural conditions do affect long run growth in per capita incomes. We get two interesting results. First, initial stocks of human capital and the initial level of economic development have lasting effects on long run growth in per capita incomes. Second, initial conditions reflecting natural conditions have no lasting effect on economic growth

Initial Conditions, European Colonialism and Africa's Growth

We investigate the role of initial conditions at colonial independence on economic growth in Africa in the post-independence period using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). A key innovation in our estimation methodology is that we incorporate parameter heterogeneity in model averaging as well as try to mitigate the endogeneity problem present in growth regressions. In order to ensure that differences in the growth determinants between Africa and the world are not driven by experiences of an alternative group of countries, we also control for the presence of OECD countries and former European colonies in the global sample. We find that the impact of different initial conditions on growth in Africa is strikingly different from the world. We argue that these initial conditions reflect the state of development at the close of the colonial era and are therefore inherently related with the legacy of colonialism.

Education Sector Foreign Aid and Economic Growth in Africa

This paper explores whether education sector foreign aid influences economic growth in Africa based on a panel of 32 countries over the period 2005 – 2017. The major novelty of the study is that on the supply side the major dependent variable, education aid flows, are disaggregated by education level. On the demand side, the recipient economies are accorded their income groups to account for capacities that complement the effects of human capital development on economic growth as well as the benevolent complementary or destabilizing effects of different political systems of government. The key findings are that: (i) education aid in aggregate form and primary education aid both enhance economic growth in low income countries; (ii) in middle income countries higher education aid is more important for economic growth than primary and secondary education foreign aid; (iii) democracies have a stronger tendency to allocate more education sector foreign aid to primary education, while in autocracies the orientation is towards higher education. The findings imply that low-income autocracies that allocate more education sector foreign aid to higher education than to primary education do so at the expense of economic growth. The same applies to middle-income democracies whose allocation orientation is more towards primary education compared to higher education

Assessing the potential of syn-rift sediments for geochronological dating and its implications for the development of Makanjira-Shire basin in south Malawi Rift

The Upper Shire River basin, located within the zone of progressive interaction and linkage between the southern Malawi Rift and Shire Rift Zone, East Africa, presents an early-stage rift setting where rapid denudation processes take place and have profound influence on the geomorphological evolution of the region. The basin is key to the understanding of mechanisms involved in propagation and growthin young rifts. Although the tectonics in the region are well studied, lack of age constraints due to well-dated strata poses challenges in the understanding of the timing and mechanisms of rift evolution in this section of the south Malawi Rift. We used syn-rift sediments deposited from the rift shoulders to test the applicability of OSL and radiocarbon dating techniques in a poorly dated data-constrained region of the Malawi Rift. Our results suggest that proper sampling strategy is paramount in using the OSL technique for dating in areas of high dosage such as the one under consideration. However, the technique offers potential for use in these areas. Furthermore, we conclude from these findings that the evolution of the Upper Shire basin was triggered by tectonic movements along the Makongwa scrap that were responsible for redirecting the Likwenu River into the in the Zomba Graben through the Upper Shire at least during the Upper Pleistocene.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Midwest Macro Conference

Abstract This paper takes a fresh look into Africa's growth experience by using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) methodology. BMA enables us to consider a large number of potential explanatory variables and sort out which of these variable can e¤ectively explain Africa's growth experience. Posterior coe¢ cient estimates reveal that key engines of growth in Africa are substantially di¤erent from those in the rest of the world. More precisely, it is shown that mining, primary exports and initial primary education exerted di¤erential e¤ect on African growth. These results are examined in relation to the existing literature. JEL Classi…cation: O40, O47. Keywords: Africa, growth determinants, model uncertainty, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). We thank the editor Steven Durlauf and an anonymous referee for valuable comments and suggestions. We also thank seminar participants a

75 Years of Development Research Conference

Abstract This paper takes a fresh look into Africa's dismal growth performance by using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) methodology. We estimate the posterior probability of a large number of potential explanatory variables and cross-country regression models. In large, we Þnd that determinants of growth in Africa are strikingly different from the rest of the world. In addition, growth regression models that best explain global growth do poorly in explaining African growth, and conversely

The poverty-HIV/AIDS nexus in Africa: A livelihood approach

This paper reviews the nexus between poverty and HIV/AIDS in Africa using a sustainable livelihood framework. Much of the literature on HIV and AIDS has generated an almost universal consensus that the AIDS epidemic is having an immense impact on the economies of hard-hit countries, hurting not only individuals, families and firms, but also significantly slowing economic growth and worsening poverty. International evidence has concentrated on the pathways through which HIV/AIDS undermines livelihoods and raises vulnerability to future collapse of livelihoods. Yet, little attention has been paid to the role that social relations and livelihood strategies can play in bringing about risky social interaction that raises the chance of contracting HIV. Using the sustainable livelihood and social relation approaches, this article demonstrates that although AIDS is not simply a disease of the poor, determinants of the epidemic go far beyond individual volition and that some dimensions of being poor increase risk and vulnerability to HIV.Africa HIV/AIDS Poverty Sustainable livelihood framework Social relations framework

HIV/AIDS, Household Income, and Consumption Dynamics in Malawi

A survey of recent writings on the interactions between the AIDS epidemic and livelihoods in Africa leaves one with the impression that development practitioners, academics, and even casual observers of developments in Africa are hell-bent on pinning most of Africa’s economic stagnation on the AIDS epidemic. This is all the more troubling because, although in the past 15 years economists have attempted to systematically link AIDS and poverty and to test the strength of those linkages, the relationships among livelihoods, poverty, and the AIDS epidemic remains so complex that we still know little about the actual contribution of AIDS in explaining observed cases of persistent poverty and divergent economic fortunes in Africa. For instance, a number of macro-level forecasts, from the pioneering studies (Ainsworth and Over 1992; Cuddington 1993; Cuddington and Hancock 1994) to more recent ones (e.g., Bloom and Mahal 1997; Greener, Jefferis, and Siphambe 2000; Arndt and Lewis 2001; Haacker 2002; Crafts and Haacker 2003) have generated an almost universal consensus that the AIDS epidemic will have an immense impact on the macroeconomies of hard-hit countries, significantly slowing economic growth and worsening poverty and income distribution (also see summaries in UNFPA 2002; UNAIDS 2002). Yet recent experience seems to suggest that because the HIV population is still a relatively small proportion of the total population, even in hard-hit countries, macro-level economic impacts of AIDS are likely to be barely visible in national statistics (Desbarats 2002).PRIFPRI1; GRP33; Theme 4; Subtheme 4.1; Food systems: disaster prevention, relief, and rebuilding after crises; Health, Diet and Nutrition; RENEWALFCN