Common mortality modeling and coherent forecasts. An empirical analysis of worldwide mortality data

A new common mortality modeling structure is presented for analyzing mortality dynamics for a pool of countries, under the framework of generalized linear models (GLM). The countries are first classified by fuzzy c-means cluster analysis in order to construct the common sparse age-period model structure for the mortality experience. Next, we propose a method to create the common sex difference age-period model structure and then use this to produce the residual age-periodmodel structure for each country and sex. The time related principal components are extrapolated using dynamic linear regression (DLR) models and coherent mortality forecasts are investigated. We make use of mortality data from the “Human Mortality Database”

Development of transparent microwell arrays for optical monitoring and dissection of microbial communities

Citation: Halsted, M., Wilmoth, J. L., Briggs, P. A., Hansen, R. R., Briggs, D. P., Timm, A. C., & Retterer, S. T. (2016). Development of transparent microwell arrays for optical monitoring and dissection of microbial communities. Journal of Vacuum Science & Technology B, 34(6), 5. doi:10.1116/1.4962739Microbial communities are incredibly complex systems that dramatically and ubiquitously influence our lives. They help to shape our climate and environment, impact agriculture, drive business, and have a tremendous bearing on healthcare and physical security. Spatial confinement, as well as local variations in physical and chemical properties, affects development and interactions within microbial communities that occupy critical niches in the environment. Recent work has demonstrated the use of silicon based microwell arrays, combined with parylene lift-off techniques, to perform both deterministic and stochastic assembly of microbial communities en masse, enabling the high-throughput screening of microbial communities for their response to growth in confined environments under different conditions. The implementation of a transparent microwell array platform can expand and improve the imaging modalities that can be used to characterize these assembled communities. Here, the fabrication and characterization of a next generation transparent microwell array is described. The transparent arrays, comprised of SU-8 patterned on a glass coverslip, retain the ability to use parylene lift-off by integrating a low temperature atomic layer deposition of silicon dioxide into the fabrication process. This silicon dioxide layer prevents adhesion of the parylene material to the patterned SU-8, facilitating dry lift-off, and maintaining the ability to easily assemble microbial communities within the microwells. These transparent microwell arrays can screen numerous community compositions using continuous, high resolution, imaging. The utility of the design was successfully demonstrated through the stochastic seeding and imaging of green fluorescent protein expressing Escherichia coli using both fluorescence and brightfield microscopies. (C) 2016 American Vacuum Society

Mechanical and Vibration Testing of Carbon Fiber Composite Material with Embedded Piezoelectric Sensors

No abstract availabl

Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources

The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. The paper was written at IIASA. It is part of the Migration Estimation Study, which is a collaborative IIASA-University of Groningen project, funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The project aims at developing techniques to obtain improved estimates of international migration flows by country of origin and country of destination

A parameterized approach to modeling and forecasting mortality

A new method is proposed of constructing mortality forecasts. This parameterized approach utilizes Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), based on heteroscedastic Poisson (non-additive) error structures, and using an orthonormal polynomial design matrix. Principal Component (PC) analysis is then applied to the cross-sectional fitted parameters. The produced model can be viewed either as a one-factor parameterized model where the time series are the fitted parameters, or as a principal component model, namely a log-bilinear hierarchical statistical association model of Goodman [Goodman, L.A., 1991. Measures, models, and graphical displays in the analysis of cross-classified data. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 86(416), 1085–1111] or equivalently as a generalized Lee–Carter model with p interaction terms. Mortality forecasts are obtained by applying dynamic linear regression models to the PCs. Two applications are presented: Sweden (1751–2006) and Greece (1957–2006)

The decline in stomach cancer mortality: exploration of future trends in seven European countries

Mortality from stomach cancer has fallen steadily during the past decades. The aim of this paper is to assess the implication of a possible continuation of the decline in stomach cancer mortality until the year 2030. Annual rates of decline in stomach cancer mortality from 1980 to 2005 were determined for the Netherlands, United Kingdom, France, and four Nordic countries on the basis of regression analysis. Mortality rates were extrapolated until 2030, assuming the same rate of decline as in the past, using three possible scenarios. The absolute numbers of deaths were projected taking into account data on the ageing of national populations. Stomach cancer mortality rates declined between 1980 and 2005 at about the same rate (3.6–4.9% per year) for both men and women in all countries. The rate of decline did not level off in recent years, and it was not smaller in countries with lower overall mortality rates in 1980. If this decline were to continue into the future, stomach cancer mortality rates would decline with about 66% between 2005 and 2030 in most populations, while the absolute number of stomach cancer deaths would diminish by about 50%. Thus, in view of the strong, stable and consistent mortality declines in recent decades, and despite population ageing, stomach cancer is likely to become far less important as a cause of death in Europe in the future

To Test or to Treat? An Analysis of Influenza Testing and Antiviral Treatment Strategies Using Economic Computer Modeling

BACKGROUND: Due to the unpredictable burden of pandemic influenza, the best strategy to manage testing, such as rapid or polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and antiviral medications for patients who present with influenza-like illness (ILI) is unknown.\ud \ud METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a set of computer simulation models to evaluate the potential economic value of seven strategies under seasonal and pandemic influenza conditions: (1) using clinical judgment alone to guide antiviral use, (2) using PCR to determine whether to initiate antivirals, (3) using a rapid (point-of-care) test to determine antiviral use, (4) using a combination of a point-of-care test and clinical judgment, (5) using clinical judgment and confirming the diagnosis with PCR testing, (6) treating all with antivirals, and (7) not treating anyone with antivirals. For healthy younger adults (<65 years old) presenting with ILI in a seasonal influenza scenario, strategies were only cost-effective from the societal perspective. Clinical judgment, followed by PCR and point-of-care testing, was found to be cost-effective given a high influenza probability. Doubling hospitalization risk and mortality (representing either higher risk individuals or more virulent strains) made using clinical judgment to guide antiviral decision-making cost-effective, as well as PCR testing, point-of-care testing, and point-of-care testing used in conjunction with clinical judgment. For older adults (> or = 65 years old), in both seasonal and pandemic influenza scenarios, employing PCR was the most cost-effective option, with the closest competitor being clinical judgment (when judgment accuracy > or = 50%). Point-of-care testing plus clinical judgment was cost-effective with higher probabilities of influenza. Treating all symptomatic ILI patients with antivirals was cost-effective only in older adults.\ud \ud CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study delineated the conditions under which different testing and antiviral strategies may be cost-effective, showing the importance of accuracy, as seen with PCR or highly sensitive clinical judgment.\ud \u

New Directions in the Development of Population Estimates in the United States?

The advent of a continuously updated Master Area File (MAF) following the 2000 census represents an information resource that can be tapped for purposes of developing timely, cost-effective, and precise population estimates for even the smallest of geographical units (e.g., census blocks). We argue that the MAF can be enhanced (EMAF) for these purposes. In support of our argument we describe a set of activities needed to develop EMAF, each of which is well within the current capabilities of the U.S. Census Bureau and discuss various costs and benefits of each. We also describe how EMAF would provide population estimates containing a wide range of demographic (e.g., age, race, and sex) and socio-economic characteristics (e.g., educational attainment, income, and employment). As such, it could largely negate and eliminate the need for many of the traditional demographic methods of population estimation and possibly reduce the number of sample surveys. We identify important challenges that must be surmounted in order to realize EMAF and make suggestions for doing so. We conclude by noting that the idea of the EMAF could be of interest to other countries with MAF files and strong administrative records systems that, like the United States, are facing the challenge of producing good population information in the face of increasing census costs