State space models for non‐stationary intermittently coupled systems: an application to the North Atlantic oscillation

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData availability: The data that are analysed in the paper and the programs that were used to analyse them can be obtained from https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/journal/14679876/seriescdatasetsWe develop Bayesian state space methods for modelling changes to the mean level or temporal correlation structure of an observed time series due to intermittent coupling with an unobserved process. Novel intervention methods are proposed to model the effect of repeated coupling as a single dynamic process. Latent time varying auto‐regressive components are developed to model changes in the temporal correlation structure. Efficient filtering and smoothing methods are derived for the resulting class of models. We propose methods for quantifying the component of variance attributable to an unobserved process, the effect during individual coupling events and the potential for skilful forecasts. The methodology proposed is applied to the study of winter time variability in the dominant pattern of climate variation in the northern hemisphere: the North Atlantic oscillation. Around 70% of the interannual variance in the winter (December–January–February) mean level is attributable to an unobserved process. Skilful forecasts for the winter (December–January–February) mean are possible from the beginning of December.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Local Voronoi tessellations for robust multi-wave calibration of computer models

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Begell House via the DOI in this recordHistory matching using Gaussian process emulators is a well-known methodology for the calibration of computer models. It attempts to identify the parts of input parameter space that are likely to result in mismatches between simulator outputs and physical observations by using emulators. These parts are then ruled out. The remaining “Not Ruled Out Yet (NROY)” input space is then searched for good matches by repeating the history matching process. An easily neglected limitation of this method is that the emulator must simulate the target NROY space well, else good parameter choices can be ruled out. We show that even when an emulator passes standard diagnostic checks on the whole parameter space, good parameter choices can easily be ruled out. We present novel methods for detecting these cases and a Local Voronoi Tessellation method for a robust approach to calibration that ensures that the true NROY space is retained and parameter inference is not biased.Alan Turing InstituteAgence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR)Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

Where Is the Clean Air? A Bayesian Decision Framework for Personalised Cyclist Route Selection Using R-INLA

This is the final version. Available on open access from the International Society for Bayesian Analysis via the DOI in this recordExposure to air pollution in the form of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is known to cause diseases and cancers. Consequently, the public are increasingly seeking health warnings associated with levels of PM2.5 using mobile phone applications and websites. Often, these existing platforms provide one-size-fits-all guidance, not incorporating user specific personal preferences. This study demonstrates an innovative approach using Bayesian methods to support personalised decision making for air quality. We present a novel hierarchical spatio-temporal model for city air quality that includes buildings as barriers and captures covariate information. Detailed high resolution PM2.5 data from a single mobile air quality sensor is used to train the model, which is fit using R-INLA to facilitate computation at operational timescales. A method for eliciting multi-attribute utility for individual journeys within a city is then given, providing the user with Bayes-optimal journey decision support. As a proof-of-concept, the methodology is demonstrated using a set of journeys and air quality data collected in Brisbane city centre, Australia

Phosphorus doped SnO2 thin films for transparent conducting oxide applications: synthesis, optoelectronic properties and computational models

Phosphorus doped tin(iv) oxide (P:SnO2) films have been synthesised by an aerosol assisted chemical vapour deposition route. Triethyl phosphate was used as the phosphorus dopant source. The phosphorus concentration in solution was found to be key to electrical properties, with concentrations between 0.25-0.5 mol% phosphorus giving the lowest resistivities of the deposited films. The conductivity of the films synthesised improved on doping SnO2 with phosphorus, with resistivity values of 7.27 × 10-4 Ω cm and sheet resistance values of 18.2 Ω □-1 achieved for the most conductive films. Phosphorus doping up to 1.0 mol% was shown to improve visible light transmission of the deposited films. The phosphorus doping also had a significant effect on film morphology, with varying microstructures achieved. The films were characterised by X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, UV/vis spectroscopy, Hall effect measurements and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The data generated was used to build computational models of phosphorus as a dopant for SnO2, showing that the phosphorus acts as a shallow one-electron n-type donor allowing for good conductivities. Phosphorus does not suffer from self-compensation issues associated with other dopants, such as fluorine

iPrevent

Curso de Especial InterésLa siguiente propuesta, contiene la información necesaria para poder asesorar y brindar una mejor atención a los procesos que son inherentes a la sexualidad del ser humano. El diseño de la creación de una aplicación llamada iPrevent, usada en aparatos tecnológicos como los móviles con sistema Android y Apple. Esta aplicación está encaminada a presentar y a exponer los distintos métodos anticonceptivos que se encuentran en el mercado, así mismo brindar un marco de conocimiento de cada uno, para facilitar la toma de decisiones de los adolescentes; de esta manera teniendo una correlación con la salud pública y mitigar los embarazos no deseados y posibles interrupciones voluntarias del embarazo (IVE) y uso de Métodos Anticonceptivos de emergencia en esta población.101 p.1. Resumen 2. Justificación 3. Marco teórico 4. Objetivos 5. Metodología 6. Estudio de mercadeo 7. Resultados 8. Discusión 9. Conclusiones y recomendaciones 10. Referencias 11. ApéndicesPregradoPsicólog

Regional Trajectories of Entrepreneurship and Growth

The development of regions is considerably shaped by their history. We review research that finds significant persistence of regional levels of entrepreneurship over longer periods of time. It is argued that the long term persistence of regional entrepreneurship indicates the presence and effect of a culture of entrepreneurship that is conducive to new business formation and regional growth. Hence, regional development is characterized by long term trajectories of entrepreneurship. We derive a number of policy implications and propose avenues for further research.</p

How accurate is an LCD screen version of the Pelli–Robson test?

Purpose: To evaluate the accuracy and repeatability of a computer-generated Pelli–Robson test displayed on liquid crystal display (LCD) systems compared to a standard Pelli–Robson chart. Methods: Two different randomized crossover experiments were carried out for two different LCD systems for 32 subjects: 6 females and 10 males (40.5 ± 13.0 years) and 9 females and 7 males (27.8 ± 12.2 years), respectively, in the first and second experiment. Two repeated measurements were taken with the printed Pelli–Robson test and with the LCDs at 1 and 3 m. To test LCD reliability, measurements were repeated after 1 week. Results: In Experiment 1, contrast sensitivity (CS) measured with LCD1 resulted significantly higher than Pelli–Robson both at 1 and at 3 m of about 0.20 log 1/C in both eyes (p < 0.01). Bland–Altman plots showed a proportional bias for LCD1 measures. LCD1 measurements showed reasonable repeatability: ICC was 0.83 and 0.65 at 1 and 3 m, respectively. In Experiment 2, CS measured with LCD2 resulted significantly lower than Pelli–Robson both at 1 and at 3 m of about 0.10 log 1/C in both eyes (p < 0.01). Bland–Altman plots did not show any proportional bias for LCD2 measures. LCD2 measurements showed sufficient repeatability: ICC resulted 0.51 and 0.65 at 1 and 3 m, respectively. Conclusions: Computer-generated versions of Pelli–Robson test, displayed on LCD systems, do not provide accurate results compared to classic Pelli–Robson printed version. Clinicians should consider that Pelli–Robson computer-generated versions could be non-interchangeable to the printed version

Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement aims to address the gap between existing climate policies and policies consistent with ‘holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2C’. The feasibility of meeting the target has been questioned both in terms of the possible requirement for negative emissions, and ongoing debate on the sensitivity of the climate-carbon cycle system. Using a sequence of ensembles of a fully dynamic three-dimensional climate-carbon cycle model, forced by emissions from an integrated assessment model of regional-level climate policy, economy, and technological transformation, we show that a reasonable interpretation of the Paris Agreement is still technically achievable. Specifically, limiting peak (decadal) warming to less than 1.7°C, or end-century warming to less than 1.54°C, occurs in 50% of our simulations in a policy scenario without net negative emissions or excessive stringency in any policy domain. We evaluate two mitigation scenarios, with 200 GTC and 307 GTC post-2017 emissions, quantifying spatio-temporal variability of warming, precipitation, ocean acidification and marine productivity. Under rapid decarbonisation decadal variability dominates the mean response in critical regions, with significant implications for decision making, demanding impact methodologies that address non-linear spatio-temporal responses. Ignoring carbon-cycle feedback uncertainties (explaining 47% of peak warming uncertainty) becomes unreasonable under strong mitigation conditions.We acknowledge C-EERNG and Cambridge Econometrics for support, and funding from EPSRC (to J.-F.M., fellowship number EP/ K007254/1); the Newton Fund (to J.-F.M., P.S. and J.E.V., EPSRC grant number EP/N002504/1 and ESRC grant number ES/N013174/1), NERC (to N.R.E., P.H. and H.P., grant number NE/P015093/1), CONICYT (to P.S.), the Philomathia Foundation (to J.E.V.) and Horizon 2020 (to H.E.P. and J.-F.M., the Sim4Nexus project)

Parental experiences of supporting children with clinically significant post-traumatic distress: a qualitative study of families accessing psychological services

The aim of this study was to investigate the experiences of parents in providing support to their child following trauma exposure in cases where children are experiencing clinically significant levels of post-traumatic distress. Qualitative interviews were conducted with parents whose child was exposed to a trauma and referred for psychological treatment. Parents reported considerable anxiety in coping with their child’s post-traumatic distress. Avoidance of trauma-related discussions was encouraged due to concerns that non-avoidant approaches may worsen children’s post-trauma difficulties. Nonetheless, parents were often sensitive to their child’s distress and offered reassurance and other forms of support. Many barriers existed to accessing psychological treatment, and perceptions of inadequate guidance from therapists on supporting child adjustment contributed to parental distress. The results illustrate the strategies used by parents in supporting their child post-trauma and may assist mental health professionals in providing acceptable guidance to parents following child trauma