Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)- dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience

multicentre analysis, I-MOVE-COVID-19 and ECDC networks, July to August 2021

Funding Information: This project received funding from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) under the contract ECD.11486. Funding Information: This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003673. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). All rights reserved.Introduction: In July and August 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant dominated in Europe. Aim: Using a multicentre test-negative study, we measured COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection. Methods: Individuals with COVID-19 or acute respiratory symptoms at primary care/community level in 10 European countries were tested for SARS-CoV-2. We measured complete primary course overall VE by vaccine brand and by time since vaccination. Results: Overall VE was 74% (95% CI: 69-79), 76% (95% CI: 71-80), 63% (95% CI: 48-75) and 63% (95% CI: 16-83) among those aged 30-44, 45-59, 60-74 and ≥ 75 years, respectively. VE among those aged 30-59 years was 78% (95% CI: 75-81), 66% (95% CI: 58-73), 91% (95% CI: 87-94) and 52% (95% CI: 40-61), for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria, Spikevax and COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen, respectively. VE among people 60 years and older was 67% (95% CI: 52-77), 65% (95% CI: 48-76) and 83% (95% CI: 64-92) for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria and Spikevax, respectively. Comirnaty VE among those aged 30-59 years was 87% (95% CI: 83-89) at 14-29 days and 65% (95% CI: 56-71%) at ≥ 90 days between vaccination and onset of symptoms. Conclusions: VE against symptomatic infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant varied among brands, ranging from 52% to 91%. While some waning of the vaccine effect may be present (sample size limited this analysis to only Comirnaty), protection was 65% at 90 days or more between vaccination and onset.publishersversionpublishe

Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults aged 65 years and older in primary care: I-MOVE-COVID-19 project, Europe, December 2020 to May 2021

I-MOVE-COVID-19 primary care study team (in addition to authors above): Nick Andrews, Jamie Lopez Bernal, Heather Whitaker, Caroline Guerrisi, Titouan Launay, Shirley Masse, Sylvie van der Werf, Vincent Enouf, John Cuddihy, Adele McKenna, Michael Joyce, Cillian de Gascun, Joanne Moran, Ana Miqueleiz, Ana Navascués, Camino Trobajo-Sanmartín, Carmen Ezpeleta, Paula López Moreno, Javier Gorricho, Eva Ardanaz, Fernando Baigorria, Aurelio Barricarte, Enrique de la Cruz, Nerea Egüés, Manuel García Cenoz, Marcela Guevara, Conchi Moreno-Iribas, Carmen Sayón, Verónica Gomez, Baltazar Nunes, Rita Roquete, Adriana Silva, Aryse Melo, Inês Costa, Nuno Verdasca, Patrícia Conde, Diogo FP Marques, Anna Molesworth, Leanne Quinn, Miranda Leyton, Selin Campbell, Janine Thoulass, Jim McMenamin, Ana Martínez Mateo, Luca Basile, Daniel Castrillejo, Carmen Quiñones Rubio, Concepción Delgado-Sanz, Jesús Oliva.The I-MOVE-COVID-19 network collates epidemiological and clinical information on patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19), including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virological characterisation in 11 European countries [1]. One component of I-MOVE-COVID-19 is the multicentre vaccine effectiveness (VE) study at primary care/outpatient level in nine European study sites in eight countries. We measured overall and product-specific COVID-19 VE against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection among those aged 65 years and older. We also measured VE by time since vaccination.This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003673.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Absence of association between 2019‐20 influenza vaccination and COVID‐19: Results of the European I‐MOVE‐COVID‐19 primary care project, March‐August 2020

International audienceBackground: Claims of influenza vaccination increasing COVID-19 risk are circulating. Within the I-MOVE-COVID-19 primary care multicentre study, we measured the association between 2019-20 influenza vaccination and COVID-19.Methods: We conducted a multicentre test-negative case-control study at primary care level, in study sites in five European countries, from March to August 2020. Patients presenting with acute respiratory infection were swabbed, with demographic, 2019-20 influenza vaccination and clinical information documented. Using logistic regression, we measured the adjusted odds ratio (aOR), adjusting for study site and age, sex, calendar time, presence of chronic conditions. The main analysis included patients swabbed ≤7 days after onset from the three countries with <15% of missing influenza vaccination. In secondary analyses, we included five countries, using multiple imputation with chained equations to account for missing data.Results: We included 257 COVID-19 cases and 1631 controls in the main analysis (three countries). The overall aOR between influenza vaccination and COVID-19 was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.66-1.32). The aOR was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.58-1.46) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.51-1.67) among those aged 20-59 and ≥60 years, respectively. In secondary analyses, we included 6457 cases and 69 272 controls. The imputed aOR was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.79-0.95) among all ages and any delay between swab and symptom onset.Conclusions: There was no evidence that COVID-19 cases were more likely to be vaccinated against influenza than controls. Influenza vaccination should be encouraged among target groups for vaccination. I-MOVE-COVID-19 will continue documenting influenza vaccination status in 2020-21, in order to learn about effects of recent influenza vaccination

Vaccine Effectiveness against Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Adults Aged 65 Years and Older in Primary Care: I-MOVE-COVID-19 Project, Europe, December 2020 to May 2021

International audienceWe measured COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection at primary care/outpatient level among adults ≥q 65 years old using a multicentre test-negative design in eight European countries. We included 592 SARS-CoV-2 cases and 4,372 test-negative controls in the main analysis. The VE was 62% (95% CI: 45\textendash 74) for one dose only and 89% (95% CI: 79\textendash 94) for complete vaccination. COVID-19 vaccines provide good protection against COVID-19 presentation at primary care/outpatient level, particularly among fully vaccinated individuals

Effectiveness of complete primary vaccination against COVID-19 at primary care and community level during predominant Delta circulation in Europe: multicentre analysis, I-MOVE-COVID-19 and ECDC networks, July to August 2021.

This project received funding from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) under the contract ECD.11486. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003673.Introduction : In July and August 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant dominated in Europe. Aim: Using a multicentre test-negative study, we measured COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection.  Methods : Individuals with COVID-19 or acute respiratory symptoms at primary care/community level in 10 European countries were tested for SARS-CoV-2. We measured complete primary course overall VE by vaccine brand and by time since vaccination.  Results : Overall VE was 74% (95% CI: 69-79), 76% (95% CI: 71-80), 63% (95% CI: 48-75) and 63% (95% CI: 16-83) among those aged 30-44, 45-59, 60-74 and ≥ 75 years, respectively. VE among those aged 30-59 years was 78% (95% CI: 75-81), 66% (95% CI: 58-73), 91% (95% CI: 87-94) and 52% (95% CI: 40-61), for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria, Spikevax and COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen, respectively. VE among people 60 years and older was 67% (95% CI: 52-77), 65% (95% CI: 48-76) and 83% (95% CI: 64-92) for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria and Spikevax, respectively. Comirnaty VE among those aged 30-59 years was 87% (95% CI: 83-89) at 14-29 days and 65% (95% CI: 56-71%) at ≥ 90 days between vaccination and onset of symptoms.  Conclusions : VE against symptomatic infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant varied among brands, ranging from 52% to 91%. While some waning of the vaccine effect may be present (sample size limited this analysis to only Comirnaty), protection was 65% at 90 days or more between vaccination and onset.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe