1,607 research outputs found

    Strong control of Southern Ocean cloud reflectivity by ice-nucleating particles

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    Large biases in climate model simulations of cloud radiative properties over the Southern Ocean cause large errors in modeled sea surface temperatures, atmospheric circulation, and climate sensitivity. Here, we combine cloud-resolving model simulations with estimates of the concentration of ice-nucleating particles in this region to show that our simulated Southern Ocean clouds reflect far more radiation than predicted by global models, in agreement with satellite observations. Specifically, we show that the clouds that are most sensitive to the concentration of ice-nucleating particles are low-level mixed-phase clouds in the cold sectors of extratropical cyclones, which have previously been identified as a main contributor to the Southern Ocean radiation bias. The very low ice-nucleating particle concentrations that prevail over the Southern Ocean strongly suppress cloud droplet freezing, reduce precipitation, and enhance cloud reflectivity. The results help explain why a strong radiation bias occurs mainly in this remote region away from major sources of ice-nucleating particles. The results present a substantial challenge to climate models to be able to simulate realistic ice-nucleating particle concentrations and their effects under specific meteorological conditions

    A Physically-based, Subgrid Parametrization for the Production and Maintenance of Mixed-phase Clouds in a General Circulation Model

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    A physically based method for parametrizing the role of subgrid scale turbulence in the production and maintenance of supercooled liquid water and mixed-phase clouds is presented. The approach used is to simplify the dynamics of supersaturation fluctuations to a stochastic differential equation that can be solved analytically, giving increments to the prognostic liquid cloud fraction and liquid water content fields in a General Circulation Model (GCM). Elsewhere, it has been demonstrated that the approach captures the properties of decameter-resolution Large Eddy Simulations of a turbulent mixed-phase environment. In this paper it is shown that it can be implemented in a GCM and the effects that this has on Southern Ocean biases and on Arctic stratus are investigated

    Emulating long-term weather-driven transportation earthworks deterioration models to support asset management

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    The deterioration of transport infrastructure earthworks is a global problem, with negative impacts for infrastructure resilience, becoming of increasing significance as existing infrastructure ages. Key mechanisms which affect this deterioration include seasonal pore pressure cycling driven by changing weather and climate, and the long-term dissipation of construction induced excess pore pressures. These complex processes lead to significant uncertainty in rates of deterioration and the current state of existing earthworks assets. The objective in this work was to establish a framework to emulate deterministic numerical models of slope deterioration over time using statistical (Gaussian process) emulation. A validated, physically based, deterministic modeling capability has been developed that can replicate the hydro-mechanically coupled behavior of cut and embankment slopes and their deterioration as driven by weather and climate. In parallel, a statistical (Gaussian process) emulator model was developed, and then trained with data from a deterministic modeling parametric study, using a formal experimental design approach, making use of Latin hypercube sampling. Exemplar forecasting outputs are presented to demonstrate application of the approach for use in decision-making. This information can be used in the design of new earthworks and the management of existing earthwork portfolio

    The impact of ambient temperature on mortality among the urban population in Skopje, Macedonia during the period 1996–2000

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    BACKGROUND: This study assesses the relationship between daily numbers of deaths and variations in ambient temperature within the city of Skopje, R. Macedonia. METHODS: The daily number of deaths from all causes, during the period 1996–2000, as well as those deaths from cardiovascular diseases, occurring within the city of Skopje were related to the average daily temperature on the same day using Multiple Regression statistical analyses. Temperature was measured within the regression model as two complementary variables: 'Warm' and 'Cold'. Excess winter mortality was calculated as winter deaths (deaths occurring in December to March) minus the average of non-winter deaths (April to July of the current year and August to November of the previous year). RESULTS: In this study the average daily total of deaths was 7% and 13% greater in the cold when compared to the whole period and warm period respectively. The same relationship was noticed for deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. The Regression Beta Coefficient (b = -0.19) for the total mortality as a function of the temperature in Skopje during the period 1996–2000 was statistically significant with negative connotation as was the circulatory mortality due to average temperature (statistically significant regression Beta coefficient (b = -0.24)). A measure of this increase is provided, on an annual basis, in the form of the excess winter mortality figure. CONCLUSION: Mortality with in the city of Skopje displayed a marked seasonality, with peaks in the winter and relative troughs in the summer

    Dynamical tunneling in molecules: Quantum routes to energy flow

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    Dynamical tunneling, introduced in the molecular context, is more than two decades old and refers to phenomena that are classically forbidden but allowed by quantum mechanics. On the other hand the phenomenon of intramolecular vibrational energy redistribution (IVR) has occupied a central place in the field of chemical physics for a much longer period of time. Although the two phenomena seem to be unrelated several studies indicate that dynamical tunneling, in terms of its mechanism and timescales, can have important implications for IVR. Examples include the observation of local mode doublets, clustering of rotational energy levels, and extremely narrow vibrational features in high resolution molecular spectra. Both the phenomena are strongly influenced by the nature of the underlying classical phase space. This work reviews the current state of understanding of dynamical tunneling from the phase space perspective and the consequences for intramolecular vibrational energy flow in polyatomic molecules.Comment: 37 pages and 23 figures (low resolution); Int. Rev. Phys. Chem. (Review to appear in Oct. 2007

    Tracking Holocene palaeostratification and productivity changes in the Western Irish Sea: A multi-proxy record

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    This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.The Western Irish Sea preserves an exceptionally thick (ca. 40 m) Holocene succession that is ideally suited to understanding the pattern of palaeostratification and water mass productivity changes in the region, and their relationship with sea level, sedimentation, and biota. Additionally, the presence of shallow-buried methane provides an opportunity to explore its potential impact on the local pattern of Holocene marine environmental change. Multi-proxy investigation of a cored borehole succession through the Holocene interval tracks changes from mixed to seasonally stratified conditions. In the earliest Holocene (11.2–10 ka), high productivity, mixed water conditions prevailed, with abundant and diverse foraminifera and dominant heterotrophic dinoflagellate cysts. Productivity was probably driven by high nutrient fluxes related to high rates of sedimentation (>1600 cm/kyr), in turn influenced by relatively low sea level and restricted sediment accommodation space across shelf areas to the east of the borehole site (eastern Irish Sea Basin). With rising sea level in the later part of the Early Holocene, the region evolved into a relatively lower productivity mixed water mass system, with significant changes in ecology revealed by dinoflagellate cysts and foraminifera. In the latest Early Holocene and earliest Mid Holocene (ca. 8.4–8.2 ka) a return to higher productivity is signalled by dinoflagellate cyst data; a result of seasonal stratification becoming established, evidenced by sharply increased summer sea surface temperature estimates (typically 16–17 °C) that contrast with an opposite (more positive) trend in δ18O values for benthic foraminifera. Reductions in turbulent mixing associated with stratification might have exacerbated the palaeoecological impact of shallow-buried methane associated with the borehole site, potentially evidenced by a significant change in dominant benthic foraminifera and strong, localised excursions in the benthic δ13C/δ18O record

    A Prospective Longitudinal Study of the Clinical Outcomes from Cryptococcal Meningitis following Treatment Induction with 800 mg Oral Fluconazole in Blantyre, Malawi

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    Introduction: Cryptococcal meningitis is the most common neurological infection in HIV infected patients in Sub Saharan Africa, where gold standard treatment with intravenous amphotericin B and 5 flucytosine is often unavailable or difficult to administer. Fluconazole monotherapy is frequently recommended in national guidelines but is a fungistatic drug compromised by uncertainty over optimal dosing and a paucity of clinical end-point outcome data. Methods: From July 2010 until March 2011, HIV infected adults with a first episode of cryptococcal meningitis were recruited at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi. Patients were treated with oral fluconazole monotherapy 800 mg daily, as per national guidelines. ART was started at 4 weeks. Outcomes and factors associated with treatment failure were assessed 4, 10 and 52 weeks after fluconazole initiation. Results: Sixty patients were recruited. 26/60 (43%) died by 4 weeks. 35/60 (58.0%) and 43/56 (77%) died or failed treatment by 10 or 52 weeks respectively. Reduced consciousness (Glasgow Coma Score ,14 of 15), moderate/severe neurological disability (modified Rankin Score .3 of 5) and confusion (Abbreviated Mental Test Score ,8 of 10) were all common at baseline and associated with death or treatment failure. ART prior to recruitment was not associated with better outcomes. Conclusions: Mortality and treatment failure from cryptococcal meningitis following initiation of treatment with 800 mg oral fluconazole is unacceptably high. To improve outcomes, there is an urgent need for better therapeutic strategies and point-of-care diagnostics, allowing earlier diagnosis before development of neurological deficit
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