Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Training Traditional Birth Attendants to Reduce Neonatal Mortality in the Lufwanyama Neonatal Survival Study (LUNESP)

The Lufwanyama Neonatal Survival Project (“LUNESP”) was a cluster randomized, controlled trial that showed that training traditional birth attendants (TBAs) to perform interventions targeting birth asphyxia, hypothermia, and neonatal sepsis reduced all-cause neonatal mortality by 45%. This companion analysis was undertaken to analyze intervention costs and cost-effectiveness, and factors that might improve cost-effectiveness.We calculated LUNESP's financial and economic costs and the economic cost of implementation for a forecasted ten-year program (2011–2020). In each case, we calculated the incremental cost per death avoided and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted in real 2011 US dollars. The forecasted 10-year program analysis included a base case as well as ‘conservative’ and ‘optimistic’ scenarios. Uncertainty was characterized using one-way sensitivity analyses and a multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The estimated financial and economic costs of LUNESP were $118,574 and$127,756, respectively, or $49,469 and$53,550 per year. Fixed costs accounted for nearly 90% of total costs. For the 10-year program, discounted total and annual program costs were $256,455 and$26,834 respectively; for the base case, optimistic, and conservative scenarios, the estimated cost per death avoided was $1,866,$591, and $3,024, and cost per DALY averted was$74, $24, and$120, respectively. Outcomes were robust to variations in local costs, but sensitive to variations in intervention effect size, number of births attended by TBAs, and the extent of foreign consultants' participation.Based on established guidelines, the strategy of using trained TBAs to reduce neonatal mortality was ‘highly cost effective’. We strongly recommend consideration of this approach for other remote rural populations with limited access to health care

An assessment of particulate organic carbon to thorium-234 ratios in the ocean and their impact on the application of 234Th as a POC flux proxy

Author Posting. © The Authors, 2006. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Marine Chemistry 100 (2006): 213-233, doi:10.1016/j.marchem.2005.10.013.Thorium-234 is increasingly used as a tracer of ocean particle flux, primarily as a means to estimate particulate organic carbon export from the surface ocean. This requires determination of both the 234Th activity distribution (in order to calculate 234Th fluxes) and an estimate of the C/234Th ratio on sinking particles, to empirically derive C fluxes. In reviewing C/234Th variability, results obtained using a single sampling method show the most predictable behavior. For example, in most studies that employ in situ pumps to collect size fractionated particles, C/234Th either increases or is relatively invariant with increasing particle size (size classes >1 to 100’s μm). Observations also suggest that C/234Th decreases with depth and can vary significantly between regions (highest in blooms of large diatoms and highly productive coastal settings). Comparisons of C fluxes derived from 234Th show good agreement with independent estimates of C flux, including mass balances of C and nutrients over appropriate space and time scales (within factors of 2-3). We recommend sampling for C/234Th from a standard depth of 100 m, or at least one depth below the mixed layer using either large volume size fractionated filtration to capture the rarer large particles, or a sediment trap or other device to collect sinking particles. We also recommend collection of multiple 234Th profiles and C/234Th samples during the course of longer observation periods to better sample temporal variations in both 234Th flux and the characteristic of sinking particles. We are encouraged by new technologies which are optimized to more reliably sample truly settling particles, and expect the utility of this tracer to increase, not just for upper ocean C fluxes but for other elements and processes deeper in the water column.Individuals and science efforts discussed herein were supported by many national science programs, including the U.S. National Science Foundation and U.S. Department of Energy. S.F. and J.C.M. acknowledge the support provided to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Marine Environment Laboratory by the Government of the Principality of Monaco. T.T. acknowledges support from the Australian Antarctic Science Program. K.B. was supported in part by a WHOI Ocean Life Institute Fellowship

The Effect of Volitional Preemptive Abdominal Contraction on Biomechanical Measures During A Front Versus Back Loaded Barbell Squat

# Background Weightlifting is growing in popularity among recreational and competitive athletes. The barbell back squat (BackS) is commonly included in these training programs, while the barbell front squat (FrontS) is commonly performed as a component of other lifts such as the power clean or clean and jerk, it is less commonly practiced in isolation. # Hypothesis/Purpose The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of VPAC performance on trunk muscle and LE biomechanical responses during loaded BackS versus FrontS in healthy subjects. # Study Design Controlled Laboratory Study # Methods Healthy male subjects with the ability to perform a sub-maximal loaded barbell squat lift were recruited. Subjects completed informed consent, demographic/medical history questionnaires and an instructional video. Subjects practiced VPAC and received feedback. Surface electromyography (sEMG) electrodes and kinematic markers were applied. Muscles included were the internal oblique (IO), external oblique (EO), rectus abdominis, iliocostalis lumborum (ICL), superficial multifidi, rectus femoris, vastus lateralis, biceps femoris, and gluteus maximus. Maximal voluntary isometric contractions established reference sEMG values. A squat one-rep-max (1RM) was predicted by researchers using a three to five repetition maximum (3RM, 5RM) load protocol. Subjects performed BackS trials at 75% 1RM while FrontS trials were performed at 75% BackS weight, both with and without VPAC. Subjects performed three repetitions of each condition with feet positioned on two adjacent force plates. Significant interactions and main effects were tested using a 2(VPAC strategy) x 2(squat variation) and 2(VPAC strategy) x 2(direction) within-subject repeated measures ANOVAs. Tukey's Post-Hoc tests identified the location of significant differences. # Results Trunk muscle activity was significantly higher during FrontS versus BackS regardless of VPAC condition. (IO: p=0.018, EO: p\<0.001, ICL: p\<0.001) VPAC increased performance time for both squat variations (p=.0011), which may be associated with decreased detrimental force potential on the lumbar spine and knees. VPAC led to improved ability to maintain a neutral lumbar spine during both squat variations. This finding is associated with decreased detrimental force potential on the lumbar spine. # Conclusions Findings could help guide practitioners and coaches to choose squat variations and incorporate VPAC strategies during their treatments and/or training programs. # Level of Evidence Level 3 ©The Author(s

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)

Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF.

AIMS: The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. CONCLUSION: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Facing the Challenge of Data Transfer from Animal Models to Humans: the Case of Persistent Organohalogens

A well-documented fact for a group of persistent, bioaccumulating organohalogens contaminants, namely polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), is that appropriate regulation was delayed, on average, up to 50 years. Some of the delay may be attributed to the fact that the science of toxicology was in its infancy when PCBs were introduced in 1920's. Nevertheless, even following the development of modern toxicology this story repeats itself 45 years later with polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) another compound of concern for public health. The question is why? One possible explanation may be the low coherence between experimental studies of toxic effects in animal models and human studies. To explore this further, we reviewed a total of 807 PubMed abstracts and full texts reporting studies of toxic effects of PCB and PBDE in animal models. Our analysis documents that human epidemiological studies of PBDE stand to gain little from animal studies due to the following: 1) the significant delay between the commercialisation of a substance and studies with animal models; 2) experimental exposure levels in animals are several orders of magnitude higher than exposures in the general human population; 3) the limited set of evidence-based endocrine endpoints; 4) the traditional testing sequence (adult animals – neonates – foetuses) postpones investigation of the critical developmental stages; 5) limited number of animal species with human-like toxicokinetics, physiology of development and pregnancy; 6) lack of suitable experimental outcomes for the purpose of epidemiological studies. Our comparison of published PCB and PBDE studies underscore an important shortcoming: history has, unfortunately, repeated itself. Broadening the crosstalk between the various branches of toxicology should therefore accelerate accumulation of data to enable timely and appropriate regulatory action