Regionalisation of climate impacts on flood flows to support the development of climate change guidance for Flood Management

Current Defra / Environment Agency guidance (FCDPAG3 supplementary note: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd/pubs/pagn/climatechangeupdate.pdf) requires all flood management plans to allow for climate change by incorporating, within a sensitivity analysis, an increase in river flows of up 20% over the next 50 years, and beyond. This guidance is the same for all of England and Wales, making no allowance for regional variation in climate change or catchment type. This reflects the lack of scientific evidence to resolve the spatial distribution of potential impacts on flood flows with enough confidence to set such policy regionally. The 20% allowance was first raised in 1999 for MAFF and subsequently reviewed following the release of the UKCIP02 scenarios. Although the 20% figure is a memorable precautionary target, there is the risk that it leads to a significant under- or over-estimation of future flood risk in individual catchments. Defra and the Environment Agency procured project FD2020 (Regionalisation of climate change impacts on flood flows) to provide a more rigorous science base for refreshing the FCDPAG3: supplementary note guidance. The FD2020 approach is exploring the relationships between catchment characteristics and climate change impacts on peak flows in a “scenario neutral” way. This is done by defining a regular set of changes in climate that encompass all the current knowledge from the new scenarios available from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. For each of the 155 catchments included in the research, this broad approach will provide multiple scenarios to produce a “vulnerability surface” for change in the metrics of peak flows (e.g. the 20-year flood flow). Some of the UKCP09 products have also been used to understand what these projections may mean for changes to peak flow. The catchment-based analysis will be used to generalise to other gauged sites across Britain, using relationships with catchment characteristics, providing the scientific evidence for the development of regional guidance on climate change allowances. Specifically the project is: Investigating the impact of climate change on peak river flows in over 150 catchments across Britain to assess the suitability of the FCDPAG3 20% climate change allowance. Investigating catchment response to climate change to identify potential similarities such that the FCDPAG3 nationwide allowance could be regionalised. Investigating the uncertainty in changes to future peak river flows from climate change. Developing an approach that has longevity beyond the project timeframe and the lifetime of the latest generation of climate model results

Past and projected weather pattern persistence with associated multi-hazards in the British Isles

Hazards such as heatwaves, droughts and floods are often associated with persistent weather patterns. Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) are important tools for evaluating projected changes in extreme weather. Here, we demonstrate that 2-day weather pattern persistence, derived from the Lamb Weather Types (LWTs) objective scheme, is a useful concept for both investigating climate risks from multi-hazard events as well as for assessing AOGCM realism. This study evaluates the ability of a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model sub-ensemble of 10 AOGCMs at reproducing seasonal LWTs persistence and frequencies over the British Isles (BI). Changes in persistence are investigated under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) up to 2100. The ensemble broadly replicates historical LWTs persistence observed in reanalyses (1971-2000). Future persistence and frequency of summer anticyclonic LWT are found to increase, implying heightened risk of drought and heatwaves. On the other hand, the cyclonic LWT decreases in autumn suggesting reduced likelihood of flooding and severe gales. During winter, AOGCMs point to increased risk of concurrent fluvial flooding-wind hazards by 2100, however, they also tend to over-estimate such risks when compared to reanalyses. In summer, the strength of the nocturnal Urban Heat Island (UHI) of London could intensify, enhancing the likelihood of combined heatwave-poor air quality events. Further research is needed to explore other multi-hazards in relation to changing weather pattern persistence and how best to communicate such threats to vulnerable communities

Students' conception of local responses to global problems for a more peaceful and sustainable world: A collaborative education project between Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and New Zealand

Background: The concept of global citizenship aims to prepare learners to be able to function and be competitive within a global environment. Successful learners may effectively “think globally” but “act locally,” aiming to contribute to positive global change. Objective: The goal of this project was to develop research-informed curricular content for global citizenship tailored to pharmacy students using a pre-established pedagogical framework. The intended learning outcome for the content was for students to “generate local responses to global problems for a more peaceful and sustainable world.”. Methods: This study occurred over three phases. Phase 1 consisted of semi-structured interviews with practicing pharmacists in Brazil (n = 4), Canada (n = 4), New Zealand (n = 4), and Qatar (n = 4) to identify global issues for case development. Phase 2 consisted of pilot testing developed cases from Phase 1 via individual interviews with target students in Canada (n = 2) and a focus group in New Zealand (n = 5). Phase 3 consisted of implementation of a 1.5-hours teaching event in New Zealand using the refined case material and formative assessment of final-year pharmacy students (n = 120). Results: Phase 1 resulted in five case scenarios (antimicrobial resistance, drug shortages, ocean pollution, climate change, and rise of nationalism) across three categories (global health and wellbeing, climate and environment, and geopolitics and power) that were tested and refined in Phase 2. Phase 3 resulted in student groups being able to achieve the intended learning outcome on a median of 4 (range, 2-5) of the developed cases. Students' interventions included new dispensing models, use of technology, community engagement, education initiatives, and others. Conclusion: Findings support the notion that when tasked to “think globally,” students are able to “act locally” by designing pharmacy practice interventions to reduce the impact of political, environmental, and health-related global problems.This study was funded by an Internationalisation of the Curriculum Grant from the University of Otago. Open access publishing facilitated by University of Otago, as part of the Wiley - University of Otago agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians

Multi-hazard dependencies can increase or decrease risk

In risk analysis, it is recognized that hazards can often combine to worsen their joint impact, but impact data for a rail network show that hazards can also tend to be mutually exclusive at seasonal timescales. Ignoring this overestimates worst-case risk, so we therefore champion a broader view of risk from compound hazard

Evaluating 21st century projections of anticyclonic weather frequency and persistence over the British Isles

Evaluating 21st century projections of anticyclonic weather frequency and persistence over the British Isle

Embodied water imports to the UK under climate change

Commodities such as food and manufactured goods, particularly those that rely on land and water, are increasingly recognised as being potentially sensitive to climate change on a global scale, suggesting that the international dimension is critical when considering future supply susceptibilities of import-dependent countries, such as the UK. We estimated embodied water imported to the UK for 25 economically significant and climate-sensitive sub-sectors, then explored the current and future susceptibilities of these sub-sectors under climate change. In 2010, these products represented 31% of total UK imports by value (US$) and 12.8 billion m of embodied water. Of this total, rice, bovine and pig meat production, plastics and paper account for ~60% of the volume of water embodied in the import categories considered. By combining product-based water volume estimates with economic and climate model information, we show how the UK could be increasingly susceptible to loss of these water supplements in the future. In doing so, we provide an indication of how countries that depend upon climate-sensitive imported resources can account for these dependencies in a systematic way. For example, international adaptation and development funding may be targeted to the securing of supplies from existing exporting countries, or trade relations may be encouraged with potential new suppliers who are likely to be less resource-constrained. © Inter-Research 2014

Review of high-contrast imaging systems for current and future ground- and space-based telescopes I. Coronagraph design methods and optical performance metrics

The Optimal Optical Coronagraph (OOC) Workshop at the Lorentz Center in September 2017 in Leiden, the Netherlands gathered a diverse group of 25 researchers working on exoplanet instrumentation to stimulate the emergence and sharing of new ideas. In this first installment of a series of three papers summarizing the outcomes of the OOC workshop, we present an overview of design methods and optical performance metrics developed for coronagraph instruments. The design and optimization of coronagraphs for future telescopes has progressed rapidly over the past several years in the context of space mission studies for Exo-C, WFIRST, HabEx, and LUVOIR as well as ground-based telescopes. Design tools have been developed at several institutions to optimize a variety of coronagraph mask types. We aim to give a broad overview of the approaches used, examples of their utility, and provide the optimization tools to the community. Though it is clear that the basic function of coronagraphs is to suppress starlight while maintaining light from off-axis sources, our community lacks a general set of standard performance metrics that apply to both detecting and characterizing exoplanets. The attendees of the OOC workshop agreed that it would benefit our community to clearly define quantities for comparing the performance of coronagraph designs and systems. Therefore, we also present a set of metrics that may be applied to theoretical designs, testbeds, and deployed instruments. We show how these quantities may be used to easily relate the basic properties of the optical instrument to the detection significance of the given point source in the presence of realistic noise.Comment: To appear in Proceedings of the SPIE, vol. 1069

Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans

A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted

A restatement of the natural science evidence concerning catchment-based ‘natural’ flood management in the UK

Flooding is a very costly natural hazard in the UK and is expected to increase further under future climate change scenarios. Flood defences are commonly deployed to protect communities and property from flooding, but in recent years flood management policy has looked towards solutions that seek to mitigate flood risk at flood-prone sites through targeted interventions throughout the catchment, sometimes using techniques which involve working with natural processes. This paper describes a project to provide a succinct summary of the natural science evidence base concerning the effectiveness of catchment-based ‘natural’ flood management in the UK. The evidence summary is designed to be read by an informed but not technically specialist audience. Each evidence statement is placed into one of four categories describing the nature of the underlying information. The evidence summary forms the appendix to this paper and an annotated bibliography is provided in the electronic supplementary material

A restatement of the natural science evidence concerning catchment-based "natural” flood management in the United Kingdom

Flooding is a very costly natural hazard in Great Britain and is expected to increase further under future climate change scenarios. Flood defences are commonly deployed to protect communities and property from flooding, but in recent years flood management policy has looked towards solutions that seek to mitigate flood risk at flood-prone sites through targeted interventions throughout the catchment, sometimes using techniques which involve working with natural processes. This paper describes a project to provide a succinct summary of the natural science evidence base concerning the effectiveness of catchment-based “natural” flood management in the United Kingdom. The evidence summary is designed to be read by an informed but not technically-specialist audience. Each evidence statement is placed into one of four categories describing the nature of the underlying information. The evidence summary forms the appendix to this paper and an annotated bibliography is provided in the electronic supplementary material