How do value-judgements enter model-based assessments of climate sensitivity?

Philosophers argue that many choices in science are influenced by values or have value-implications, ranging from the preference for some research method’s qualities to ethical estimation of the consequences of error. Based on the argument that awareness of values in the scientific process is a necessary first step to both avoid bias and attune science best to the needs of society, an analysis of the role of values in the physical climate science production process is provided. Model-based assessment of climate sensitivity is taken as an illustrative example; climate sensitivity is useful here because of its key role in climate science and relevance for policy, by having been the subject of several assessments over the past decades including a recent shift in assessment method, and because it enables insights that apply to numerous other aspects of climate science. It is found that value-judgements are relevant at every step of the model-based assessment process, with a differentiated role of non-epistemic values across the steps, impacting the assessment in various ways. Scrutiny of current philosophical norms for value-management highlights the need for those norms to be re-worked for broader applicability to climate science. Recent development in climate science turning away from direct use of models for climate sensitivity assessment also gives the opportunity to start investigating the role of values in alternative assessment methods, highlighting similarities and differences in terms of the role of values that encourage further study

Ethical Aspects of Radiation Risk Management

This thesis is based on the assumption that the intersection of moral philosophy and practical risk management is a rewarding area to study. In particular, the thesis assumes that concepts, ideas, and methods that are used in moral philosophy can be of great benefit for risk analysis, but also that practices in risk regulation provide a useful testing ground for moral philosophical theories. The thesis consists of an introduction and five articles. Article I is a review article on social and ethical aspects of radiation protection related to nuclear power generation. The paper concludes that four areas of social and ethical issues stand out as central: The first is uncertainty and the influence of value judgments in scientific risk assessments. The second is the distributions of risks and benefits between different individuals, in both space and time. The third is the problem of setting limits when there is no known level of exposure associated with a zero risk. The fourth is related to stakeholder influence and risk communication. Article II discusses ethical issues related to the proposal that doses (or risks) below a certain level should be excluded from the system of radiation protection, without any regard for the number of people exposed. Different arguments for excluding small radiation doses from regulation are examined and a possible solution to the problem of regulating small risks is proposed in the article: Any exclusion of small doses (or risks) from radiation protection ought to be based on a case-by-case basis, with the condition that the expected value of harm remains small. Article III examines what makes one distribution of individual doses better than another distribution. The article introduces a mathematical framework based on preference logic, in which such assessments can be made precisely in terms of comparisons between alternative distributions of individual doses. Principles of radiation protection and from parallel discussions in moral philosophy and welfare economics are defined using this framework and their formal properties analyzed. Article IV argues that the ethical theory of “responsibility-catering prioritarianism” is well positioned to deal with the reasonable requirements in an ethical theory of risk. The article shows how responsibility-catering prioritarianism can be operationalized using a prioritarian social welfare function based on hypothetical utilities. For this purpose, a hypothetical utility measure called ‘responsibility-adjusted utility’ is proposed, which is based on the utility that would normally be expected given circumstances outside of the control of the individual. Article V was written as a response to the Fukushima disaster. Several authors have called the Fukushima disaster a ‘black swan.’ However, the article argues that the hazards of large earthquakes and tsunamis were known before the accident, and introduces and defines the concept of a ‘black elephant,’ as (i) a high-impact event that (ii) lies beyond the realm of regular expectations, but (iii) is ignored despite existing evidence.QC 2012081

Ethical aspects of radiation protection

This aim of this thesis is to examine ethical aspects of radiation protection from ionizing radiation. Radiation protection is the professional field that deals with the protection of humans and the environment from the harmful effects of radiation. The field is based on scientific knowledge of the health effects of radiation, but also on ethical value judgements. This thesis consists of a summary and three essays. Essay 1 gives an overview of ethical issues in radiation protection. Based on this overview four ethical problem areas are identified as central for radiation protection. The first are ethical problems related to uncertainty and the influence of value judgements, especially in scientific risk assessment. The second problem area is ethical issues regarding distributions of risks and benefits between different individuals, both in space and time. The third general problem area is related to limit-setting. A major problem here is how to set limits in an ethically justifiable way when there is no known level of exposure that is associated with a zero risk. The fourth area concerns procedural justice and social decision-making in radiation protection. Essay 2 discusses ethical problems related to the proposal that individual risks below a certain level should be excluded from the system of radiation protection, without any regard to the number of people exposed. It is concluded that there are at least three problems associated with disregarding very small risks: (1) that many small risks to an individual may add up to a large risk for that individual, (2) that many small risks to many individuals may add up to a large expected value of harm, and (3) that a small risk each to many individuals may add up to a large probability that several people are harmed. It is also argued that the proposal is hard to justify in a rights-based ethical setting. Essay 3 examines what makes one distribution of individual doses better than another. This is done by creating a mathematical framework, based on preference logic, in which such assessments of can be made precisely in terms of comparisons between alternative distributions of individual doses. Principles from radiation protection and from parallel discussions in moral philosophy and welfare economics are defined using this framework and then analysed on basis of their formal properties. The analysis shows that there can be efficiency-related problems with a strict application of individual dose constraints. It is concluded that a principle that assigns extra weight to individual doses exceeding a certain limit, in proportion to the size of the excess dose, may be preferable to the standard combination of principles in radiation protection, since it satisfies efficiency related properties better without sacrificing other desirable properties.QC 2010112

Ethical Aspects of Radiation Risk Management

This thesis is based on the assumption that the intersection of moral philosophy and practical risk management is a rewarding area to study. In particular, the thesis assumes that concepts, ideas, and methods that are used in moral philosophy can be of great benefit for risk analysis, but also that practices in risk regulation provide a useful testing ground for moral philosophical theories. The thesis consists of an introduction and five articles. Article I is a review article on social and ethical aspects of radiation protection related to nuclear power generation. The paper concludes that four areas of social and ethical issues stand out as central: The first is uncertainty and the influence of value judgments in scientific risk assessments. The second is the distributions of risks and benefits between different individuals, in both space and time. The third is the problem of setting limits when there is no known level of exposure associated with a zero risk. The fourth is related to stakeholder influence and risk communication. Article II discusses ethical issues related to the proposal that doses (or risks) below a certain level should be excluded from the system of radiation protection, without any regard for the number of people exposed. Different arguments for excluding small radiation doses from regulation are examined and a possible solution to the problem of regulating small risks is proposed in the article: Any exclusion of small doses (or risks) from radiation protection ought to be based on a case-by-case basis, with the condition that the expected value of harm remains small. Article III examines what makes one distribution of individual doses better than another distribution. The article introduces a mathematical framework based on preference logic, in which such assessments can be made precisely in terms of comparisons between alternative distributions of individual doses. Principles of radiation protection and from parallel discussions in moral philosophy and welfare economics are defined using this framework and their formal properties analyzed. Article IV argues that the ethical theory of “responsibility-catering prioritarianism” is well positioned to deal with the reasonable requirements in an ethical theory of risk. The article shows how responsibility-catering prioritarianism can be operationalized using a prioritarian social welfare function based on hypothetical utilities. For this purpose, a hypothetical utility measure called ‘responsibility-adjusted utility’ is proposed, which is based on the utility that would normally be expected given circumstances outside of the control of the individual. Article V was written as a response to the Fukushima disaster. Several authors have called the Fukushima disaster a ‘black swan.’ However, the article argues that the hazards of large earthquakes and tsunamis were known before the accident, and introduces and defines the concept of a ‘black elephant,’ as (i) a high-impact event that (ii) lies beyond the realm of regular expectations, but (iii) is ignored despite existing evidence.QC 2012081

Ethical Aspects of Radiation Risk Management

This thesis is based on the assumption that the intersection of moral philosophy and practical risk management is a rewarding area to study. In particular, the thesis assumes that concepts, ideas, and methods that are used in moral philosophy can be of great benefit for risk analysis, but also that practices in risk regulation provide a useful testing ground for moral philosophical theories. The thesis consists of an introduction and five articles. Article I is a review article on social and ethical aspects of radiation protection related to nuclear power generation. The paper concludes that four areas of social and ethical issues stand out as central: The first is uncertainty and the influence of value judgments in scientific risk assessments. The second is the distributions of risks and benefits between different individuals, in both space and time. The third is the problem of setting limits when there is no known level of exposure associated with a zero risk. The fourth is related to stakeholder influence and risk communication. Article II discusses ethical issues related to the proposal that doses (or risks) below a certain level should be excluded from the system of radiation protection, without any regard for the number of people exposed. Different arguments for excluding small radiation doses from regulation are examined and a possible solution to the problem of regulating small risks is proposed in the article: Any exclusion of small doses (or risks) from radiation protection ought to be based on a case-by-case basis, with the condition that the expected value of harm remains small. Article III examines what makes one distribution of individual doses better than another distribution. The article introduces a mathematical framework based on preference logic, in which such assessments can be made precisely in terms of comparisons between alternative distributions of individual doses. Principles of radiation protection and from parallel discussions in moral philosophy and welfare economics are defined using this framework and their formal properties analyzed. Article IV argues that the ethical theory of “responsibility-catering prioritarianism” is well positioned to deal with the reasonable requirements in an ethical theory of risk. The article shows how responsibility-catering prioritarianism can be operationalized using a prioritarian social welfare function based on hypothetical utilities. For this purpose, a hypothetical utility measure called ‘responsibility-adjusted utility’ is proposed, which is based on the utility that would normally be expected given circumstances outside of the control of the individual. Article V was written as a response to the Fukushima disaster. Several authors have called the Fukushima disaster a ‘black swan.’ However, the article argues that the hazards of large earthquakes and tsunamis were known before the accident, and introduces and defines the concept of a ‘black elephant,’ as (i) a high-impact event that (ii) lies beyond the realm of regular expectations, but (iii) is ignored despite existing evidence.QC 2012081

Toward a responsibility-catering prioritarian ethical theory of risk

Standard tools used in societal risk management such as probabilistic risk analysis or cost–benefit analysis typically define risks in terms of only probabilities and consequences and assume a utilitarian approach to ethics that aims to maximize expected utility. The philosopher Carl F. Cranor has argued against this view by devising a list of plausible aspects of the acceptability of risks that points towards a non-consequentialist ethical theory of societal risk management. This paper revisits Cranor’s list to argue that the alternative ethical theory responsibility-catering prioritarianism can accommodate the aspects identified by Cranor and that the elements in the list can be used to inform the details of how to view risks within this theory. An approach towards operationalizing the theory is proposed based on a prioritarian social welfare function that operates on responsibility-adjusted utilities. A responsibility-catering prioritarian ethical approach towards managing risks is a promising alternative to standard tools such as cost–benefit analysis

A Value Sensitive Scenario Planning Method for Adaptation to Uncertain Future Sea Level Rise

Value sensitive design (VSD) aims at creating better technology based on social and ethical values. However, VSD has not been applied to long-term and uncertain future developments, such as societal planning for climate change. This paper describes a new method that combines elements from VSD with scenario planning. The method was developed for and applied to a case study of adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) in southern Sweden in a series of workshops. The participants of the workshops found that the method provided a framework for discussing long-term planning, enabled identification of essential values, challenged established planning practices, helped find creative solutions, and served as a reminder that we do not know what will happen in the future. Finally, we reflect on the limitations of the method and suggest further research on how it can be improved for value sensitive design of adaptation measures to manage uncertain future sea level rise.QC 20211124</p

Planning for future sea-level rise in Swedish municipalities

A warmer climate leads to rising sea levels. Despite uncertainties about how rapid and substantial future sea-level rise (SLR) will be, society needs to prepare and adapt. This study examines the state of planning for future SLR in Sweden by surveying 33 coastal municipalities in southern Sweden and interviewing local, regional and national authorities with relevant accountability. The results reveal that there are considerable gaps in current planning for SLR. Almost one-third of municipalities lack guiding planning documents for SLR, and more than two-thirds do not discuss SLR beyond 2100. We argue that the prevailing uncertainty and ambiguity in assessments of future SLR is problematic within a traditional “predict-then-act” paradigm, and that robust approaches, such as scenario planning, can reduce many of these problems.QC 20150625Climatool

Future sea level rise in municipal planning

Ett varmare klimat innebär stigande havsnivåer. Samhället behöver förbereda sig på att hantera dessa, trots de osäkerheter som råder kring hur snabb och omfattande havsnivåhöjningen kommer att bli. I denna rapport kartlägger vi hur 33 kustkommuner i södra Sverige hanterar höjda havsnivåer i sin planering och vilka uppskattningar av framtida havsnivåer de utgår ifrån. Vi analyserar också svaren i ett antal intervjuer med handläggare ansvariga för havsnivåplanering vid kommuner, länsstyrelser, Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap (MSB), Sveriges meteorologiska och hydrologiska institut (SMHI) och ett konsultbolag. Den största osäkerheten i projektionerna av framtida havsnivåer är hur inlandsisarna på Grönland och Antarktis kommer att reagera på klimatförändringarna. Dessa har reagerat snabbare än vad man tidigare trodde. Under senare tid har allt högre värden angetts i flera artiklar publicerade i vetenskapliga tidskrifter. Här uppskattar man höjningen av havsnivån fram till år 2100 till 1–2 meter för de högsta utsläppsscenarierna. Havet kommer också fortsätta att stiga under många århundraden, även om utsläppen av växthusgaser upphör helt. Den lokala havsnivåhöjningen varierar från det globala medelvärdet och påverkas av flera olika faktorer. Kartläggningen av kommunala planeringsdokument visar att det finns stora brister i dagens planering för en framtida havsnivåhöjning. Nära en tredjedel av de studerade kommunerna saknar helt uppskattningar av framtida havsnivåer i sin planering. Av de kommuner som uppskattar kommande havsnivåer saknar sex av tio tydliga källor till sina uppskattningar. SMHI är den dominerande källan till kommunernas uppskattningar av framtida havsnivåer. Spridningen är dock stor mellan olika kommuners uppskattningar, vilket pekar på den osäkerhet som råder om vilken uppskattning av framtida havsnivåhöjning som är rimlig att förhålla sig till. De senaste åren kan en trend skönjas att kommuner utgår från SMHI:s uppskattning om "runt en meters" havsnivåhöjning fram till år 2100. De flesta kustkommunerna i södra Sverige planerar inte för havsnivåhöjning över en meter på hundra års sikt, trots att det finns vetenskapliga studier som tyder på högre nivåer. Idag saknas planering för stigande havsnivåer bortom år 2100. Främst SMHI, Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län och Helsingborgs kommun lyfter fram betydelsen av planering på längre än hundra års sikt. Mycket få kommuner planerar för ett längre tidsperspektiv och detta pekar på att samhällets långsiktiga planering för havsnivåhöjning behöver förbättras. Vår studie tydliggör en brist på beredskap för en mer omfattande havsnivåhöjning än de uppskattningar som dominerar inom planeringen i nuläget. Även om flera intervjuade efterfrågar planering även för värstascenarier, är det enbart MSB som tar med det i sitt arbete med stigande havsnivåer, enligt EU:s översvämningsdirektiv. Studien visar också att kommuner och länsstyrelser i södra Sverige efterfrågar en ökad tydlighet från statligt håll. Förutom konkret stöd i form av planeringsunderlag vill man även ha tydliga statliga riktlinjer för planeringen för stigande havsnivåer. Studien pekar därmed på behovet av en statlig strategi för havsnivåplaneringen i Sverige.A warmer climate leads to rising sea levels. Despite uncertainties about how rapid and substantial future sea level rise will be, society needs to prepare. In this report we examine how 33 coastal municipalities in southern Sweden plan for rising sea levels and what estimated future sea levels their planning is based on. We also analyse the responses in a number of interviews with individuals responsible for sea level planning at the studied municipalities, county administrative boards, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and a consultancy firm. The greatest uncertainty in future sea level projections is how the inland ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will react to climate change. The reaction so far has been more rapid than previously thought. Recently, increasing levels have been mentioned in several articles published in scientific journals. In these articles, sea level rise is estimated to 1–2 metres by 2100 for the highest emissions scenarios. The sea will continue to rise for many centuries, even if greenhouse gas emissions cease completely. Local sea level rise differs from the global average and is affected by several factors. Our survey of municipal planning documents reveals that there are considerable gaps in current planning for future sea level rise. Almost one third of the municipalities studied have no estimates of future sea levels whatsoever in their planning. Among the municipalities that in fact estimate future sea levels, six out of ten lack clear sources for their estimates. SMHI is the dominant source for municipalities' estimates of future sea level rise. There is, however, considerable difference between the estimates of various municipalities. This illustrates the uncertainty that exists about what future sea level rise estimate is most reasonable to relate to. In recent years there is evidence of a trend that municipalities are using SMHI's estimate of a sea level rise of "around one metre" by 2100. Despite scientific studies indicating higher levels, most coastal municipalities in southern Sweden do not plan for sea level rise above one metre by the end of the 21st century. Currently planning for sea level rise beyond 2100 is lacking. SMHI, the County Administrative Board of Skåne and the municipality of Helsingborg emphasize the importance of planning more than 100 years into the future. However, few other municipalities plan for this time frame. This indicates that long-term planning for sea level rise needs to be improved. Our study reveals a lack of preparedness for more substantial sea level rise than estimated in current planning. The interviews show that even if several interviewees request planning for worst-case scenarios of future sea level rise, only MSB takes into account the worst possible outcome, as required by the European Union's Floods Directive. The study shows that municipalities and county administrative boards in southern Sweden demand increased clarity from the state, both in terms of concrete planning support and clear government guidelines for planning for sea level rise. Our study indicates a need for a government strategy for sea level planning in Sweden.QC 20121109. Studien har gjorts inom ramen för forskningsprogrammet Climatools, ett tvärvetenskapligt forskningssamarbete mellan FOI, Umeå universitet, KTH och Konjunkturinstitutet. Climatools löper mellan åren 2007 och 2012 och finansieras av Naturvårdsverket.Climatool

"The Greatest Benefit Is to Think Differently" : Experiences of Developing and Using a Web-Based Tool for Decision-Making under Deep Uncertainty for Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in Municipalities

The need for handling the deep uncertainty surrounding the future climate has led to various novel and robust approaches for decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) when adapting to climate change. Here, an online and self-explanatory web-based tool was developed and tested with civil servants from five municipalities in Sweden challenged by rising sea levels. The municipalities used the tool by themselves and were then interviewed about the usability of the tool, the perceived urgency of climate change adaptation, and the possibilities for municipalities for handling the flexible solutions that are at the core of DMDU. Results were that the civil servants reported that the urgency of climate change adaptation has increased, that the tool changed their perspectives compared to traditional planning methods, and that changes in laws and regulations to accommodate decisions about flexible solutions were recommended