Late Holocene palynology and palaeovegetation of tephra-bearing mires at Papamoa and Waihi Beach, western Bay of Plenty, North Island, New Zealand.

The vegetation history of two mires associated with Holocene dunes near the western Bay of Plenty coast, North Island, New Zealand, is deduced from pollen analysis of two cores. Correlation of airfall tephra layers in the peats, and radiocarbon dates, indicate that the mires at Papamoa and Waihi Beach are c. 4600 and c. 2900 conventional radiocarbon years old, respectively. Tephras used to constrain the chronology of the pollen record include Rotomahana (1886 AD), Kaharoa (700 yr B.P.), Taupo (Unit Y; 1850 yr B.P.), Whakaipo (Unit V; 2700 yr B.P.), Stent (Unit Q; 4000 yr B.P.), Hinemaiaia (Unit K; 4600 yr B.P.), and reworked Whakatane (c. 4800 yr B.P.) at Papamoa, and Kaharoa and Taupo at Waihi Beach. Peat accumulation rates at Papamoa from 4600 - 1850 yr B.P. range from 0.94 to 2.64 mm/yr (mean 1.37 mm/yr). At Waihi Beach, from 2900 yr B.P. - present day, they range from 0.11 to 0.21 mm/yr (mean 0.20 mm/yr). Peat accumulation at both sites was slowest from 1850 to 700 yr B.P., suggesting a drier overall climate during this interval. At both sites, the earliest organic sediments, which are underlain by marine or estuarine sands, yield pollen spectra indicating salt marsh or estuarine environments. Coastal vegetation communities declined at both sites, as sea level gradually fell or the coast prograded, and were eventually superseded by a low moor bog at Papamoa, and a mesotrophic swamp forest at Waihi Beach. These differences, and the marked variation in peat accumulation rates, probably reflect local hydrology and are unlikely to have been climatically controlled. The main regional vegetation during this period was mixed northern conifer-angiosperm forest. Kauri (Agathis australis) formed a minor component of these forests, but populations of this tree have apparently not expanded during the late Holocene at these sites, which are near its present southern limit. Occasional shortlived forest disturbances are detectable in these records, in particular immediately following the deposition of Taupo Tephra. However, evidence for forest clearance during the human era is blurred by the downward dislocation of modern adventi ve pollen at these sites, preventing the clear differentiation of the Polynesian and European eras

Evolution of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections

The modern era of scientific global‐mean sea level rise (SLR) projections began in the early 1980s. In subsequent decades, understanding of driving processes has improved, and new methodologies have been developed. Nonetheless, despite more than 70 studies, future SLR remains deeply uncertain. To facilitate understanding of the historical development of SLR projections and contextualize current projections, we have compiled a comprehensive database of 21st century global SLR projections. Although central estimates of 21st century global‐mean SLR have been relatively consistent, the range of projected SLR has varied greatly over time. Among studies providing multiple estimates, the range of upper projections shrank from 1.3–1.8 m during the 1980s to 0.6–0.9 m in 2007, before expanding again to 0.5–2.5 m since 2013. Upper projections of SLR from individual studies are generally higher than upper projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, potentially due to differing percentile bounds or a predisposition of consensus‐based approaches toward relatively conservative outcomes.Plain Language SummaryIn spite of more than 35 years of research, and over 70 individual studies, the upper bound of future global‐mean sea level rise (SLR) remains deeply uncertain. In an effort to improve understanding of the history of the science behind projected SLR, we present and analyze the first comprehensive database of 21st century global‐mean SLR projections. Results show a reduction in the range of SLR projections from the first studies through the mid‐2000s that has since reversed. In addition, results from this work indicate a tendency for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports to err on the side of least drama—a conservative bias that could potentially impede risk management.Key PointsWe present the first comprehensive database of 21st century global sea level rise projectionsUpper estimates of sea level rise in 2100 are often higher than upper bounds found in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reportsA comparison of recent global sea level rise projections reveals far greater agreement among studies in 2050 compared to 2100Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147167/1/eft2484_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147167/2/eft2484.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147167/3/eft2_84-sup-0001-2018EF000991-Figs01.pd

A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions

Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20% to 30% of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2{\deg}C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2{\deg}C target after a particular development threshold is reached. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2{\deg}C.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

A Comparison of Computerized Chemical Models for Equilibrium Calculations in Aqueous Systems

A survey of computer programs which are currently being used to calculate the distribution of species in aqueous solutions, especially natural waters, has been made in order to 1) provide an inventory of available programs with a short description of their uses, 2) compare the consistency of their output for two given test solutions and 3) identify major weaknesses or problems encountered from their use. More than a dozen active programs which can be used for distribution of species and activity calculations for homogeneos equilibria among the major anions and cations of natural waters have been inventoried. Half of these programs can also accept several trace elements including Fe, Al, Mn, Cu, Ni, Zn, Cd, Pb, Ag, Hg, As, Ba, Sr, and B. Consistency between programs was evaluated by comparing the log of the molal concentrations of free ions and complexes for two test solutions: a hypothetical seawater analysis and a hypothetical river water analysis. Comparison of the free major ion concentrations in the river water test case shows excellent agreement for the major species. In the seawater test case there is less agreement and for both test cases the minor species commonly show orders of magnitude differences in concentrations. These differences primarily reflect differences in the thermodynamic data base of each chemical model although other factors such as activity coefficient calculations, redox assumptions, temperature corrections, alkalinity corrections and the number of complexes used all have an affect on the output

Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso

Vulnerable warriors: the atmospheric marketing of military and policing equipment before and after 9/11

In this article, we analyse changes in the circulation of advertisements of policing products at security expos between 1995 and 2013. While the initial aim of the research was to evidence shifts in terrorist frames in the marketing of policing equipment before and after 9/11, our findings instead suggested that what we are seeing is the rise of marketing to police as “vulnerable warriors”, law enforcement officers in need of military weapons both for their offensive capabilities and for the protection they can offer to a police force that is always under threat

Immunochip analysis identifies multiple susceptibility loci for systemic sclerosis

In this study, 1,833 systemic sclerosis (SSc) cases and 3,466 controls were genotyped with the Immunochip array. Classical alleles, amino acid residues, and SNPs across the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region were imputed and tested. These analyses resulted in a model composed of six polymorphic amino acid positions and seven SNPs that explained the observed significant associations in the region. In addition, a replication step comprising 4,017 SSc cases and 5,935 controls was carried out for several selected non-HLA variants, reaching a total of 5,850 cases and 9,401 controls of European ancestry. Following this strategy, we identified and validated three SSc risk loci, including DNASE1L3 at 3p14, the SCHIP1-IL12A locus at 3q25, and ATG5 at 6q21, as well as a suggested association of the TREH-DDX6 locus at 11q23. The associations of several previously reported SSc risk loci were validated and further refined, and the observed peak of association in PXK was related to DNASE1L3. Our study has increased the number of known genetic associations with SSc, provided further insight into the pleiotropic effects of shared autoimmune risk factors, and highlighted the power of dense mapping for detecting previously overlooked susceptibility loci

The Influence of Corporate Front-Group Stealth Campaigns

This research examined corporate front-group stealth campaigns. An experiment was conducted to examine the influence of front-group stealth campaigns on a variety of measures. It was anticipated that corporate front-group stealth campaigns, which feature names that mask the true interests of sponsors, positively affect public opinion, unless they are exposed as intentionally misleading, in which case they boomerang against sponsors. The experiment examined the potential of the inoculation strategy to preempt the influence of corporate front-group stealth campaigns. The pattern of results supported all of these expectations. Front-group stealth campaigns proved to be effective, at least in the short term. Front-group stealth campaigns eroded public attitudes toward the issue in question and boosted perceptions of the front group, but not the corporate sponsor. However, when front-group stealth campaigns were subsequently exposed, positive effects dissipated and perceptions of corporate sponsors boomeranged. Results revealed that inoculation can protect against the influence of front-group stealth campaigns.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

Women and Haunted Houses in the Films of Jaume Balagueró: The Nightmares of Presence

Jaume Balagueró has developed a successful resumé of horror films that show a decided preference for the classic Gothic motif of the haunted house and the Gothic heroine who investigates its interior. This paper touches first on the Derridean concept of ‘dreams of presence’ (as theorized by cultural geographer Mitch Rose), in order to propose the ‘nightmares of presence’ in which the relationship, the call to care or commitment, between the subject and the space in which the subject dwells or moves is Gothicised but nonetheless remains to tie the subject to the space concerned. It then focuses on Balagueró’s Los sin nombre, Fragile and [REC] to consider three very different Gothic heroines: the mother of a dead daughter, a nurse in a children’s hospital, and a television reporter. The antagonistic call to care of the ‘nightmare of presence’ will be used to interrogate spatial aspects of the Gothic heroine. Keywords: Jaume Balagueró; haunted house; Spanish Gothic; Spanish horror; Spanish film Jaume Balagueró ha desarrollado un grupo de películas exitosas que demuestra una preferencia hacia el escenario clásico de lo gótico, la casa encantada tanto como la heroína gótica que la investiga. Este ensayo estudia en primer lugar el concepto derrideano de ‘los sueños de presencia’ (según la teoría de geógrafo cultural Mitch Rose), para proponer las ‘pesadillas de presencia’ en que el vínculo, la llamada a compromiso, entre el sujeto y el espacio en que se mueve o que habita, llega a ser gotizado; pero que fija al sujeto en el espacio relevante. El argumento se enfoca en Los sin nombre, Fragile y [REC] para considerar tres heroínas distintas: la madre de una hija muerta, una enfermera en un hospital para niños, y una locutora para un programa televisivo. La llamada antagonista de la pesadilla de presencia se usa para interrogar los aspectos espaciales de la heroína gótica

The B subunits of cholera and Escherichia coli heat-labile toxins enhance the immune responses in mice orally immunised with a recombinant live P-fimbrial vaccine for avian pathogenic E. coli

This study aimed to investigate the adjuvant effect of recombinant attenuated Salmonella expressing cholera toxin B subunit (CTB) and Escherichia coli heat-labile enterotoxin B subunit (LTB) for the P-fimbriae subunit-based vaccine of avian pathogenic E. coli (APEC) in a murine model. The PapA-specific sIgA and IgG responses were significantly enhanced after immunisation with the Salmonella-PapA vaccine in the presence of CTB or LTB. The group immunised with the Salmonella-LTB strain promoted Th1-type immunity, whereas that immunised with the Salmonella-CTB strain produced Th2-type immunity. We concluded that both Salmonella-CTB and -LTB strains can enhance the immune response to PapA, and that the LTB strain may be a more effective adjuvant for APEC vaccination, which requires higher Th1-type immunity for protection. Thus, our findings provide evidence that immunisation with an adjuvant, LTB, is one of the strategies of developing effective vaccines against P-fimbriated APEC