Study protocol for a randomised controlled trial of Allen Carr's Easyway programme versus Lambeth and Southwark NHS for smoking cessation.

INTRODUCTION: Smoking is a major cause of ill health and is associated with several diseases including cancer, coronary heart disease and stroke. Many psychological and pharmacological smoking cessation treatments are available and although they are undoubtedly the most cost-effective health interventions available, many people still fail to maintain cessation in the longer term. Recently, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence called for comparative studies to determine the short-term and long-term effectiveness of Allen Carr's Easyway (ACE) method of stopping smoking. This study will compare the efficacy of the ACE programme and a 1-1 counselling service available via the National Health Service. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A two-arm, parallel-group, blinded, randomised controlled trial will be conducted with people who smoke tobacco cigarettes, are aged ≥18 years and are motivated to quit. Exclusion criteria comprise self-reported mental health condition, pregnancy or respiratory disease such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or emphysema. The primary treatment outcome is smoking cessation 26 weeks after treatment. Participants will be analysed on an intention to treat basis at the point of randomisation. Before being randomised, the research team will not inform participants which two treatments are being compared. Once randomised researchers will be blinded to participant condition, and participants will be blinded to the condition they are not assigned to. Logistic regression will be used to estimate the effectiveness of the treatment condition on smoking cessation at 26 weeks. The following covariates will be included: baseline quit efficacy (at inclusion), age (at inclusion), gender and baseline nicotine dependency. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approval was granted by London-Fulham Research Ethics Committee (ref: 16/LO/1657). The study's findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and disseminated at national and international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier number: NCT02855255. ISRCTN registration number: ISRCTN23584477; Pre-results

AG Agriculture CK Coyote brush AK Alkaline flats CL Wedgeleaf ceanothus

AN Mendocino manzanita CM Upper montane mixed shru

The Limits of Anthropocene Narratives

The rapidly growing transdisciplinary enthusiasm about developing new kinds of Anthropocene stories is based on the shared assumption that the Anthropocene predicament is best made sense of by narrative means. Against this assumption, this article argues that the challenge we are facing today does not merely lie in telling either scientific, socio-political, or entangled Anthropocene narratives to come to terms with our current condition. Instead, the challenge lies in coming to grips with how the stories we can tell in the Anthropocene relate to the radical novelty of the Anthropocene condition about which no stories can be told. What we need to find are meaningful ways to reconcile an inherited commitment to narrativization and the collapse of storytelling as a vehicle of understanding the Anthropocene as our current predicament

Estimation of leaf area index in eucalypt forest with vertical foliage, using cover and fullframe fisheye photography

This study compared fullframe fisheye photography and cover photography with destructive leaf area index (L) estimation and the Licor LAI-2000 plant canopy analyser (PCA) in plantations of the vertical leaved species Eucalyptus globulus. Fullframe fisheye photography differs from circular fisheye photography in that the images have reduced field of view such that the zenithal range of 0-90° extends to the corners of the rectangular image, roughly doubling image resolution compared to circular images. Cover images instead are obtained by pointing a 70 mm equivalent focal length lens (in 35 mm format) straight upwards. Measurements of cover and indirect estimates of plant area index (Lt) were made in 12 stands of 6-8 years old Eucalyptus globulus. L was measured using destructive sampling and allometry in nine of these stands and ranged from 2.5 to 6.6. Both foliage cover and Lt from the PCA were well correlated with L from allometry, but fullframe fisheye photography provided poor estimates of L despite corrections for foliage clumping. Sampling location had a significant effect on estimates of crown porosity, crown cover and zenithal clumping index from cover photography. The zenithal extinction coefficient (k), calculated from L, crown porosity and cover, ranged from 0.14 to 0.25 and appeared to decrease as L increased; hence, we were unable to obtain an unambiguous estimate of k for E. globulus stands. Nonetheless, the study showed that L can be estimated from foliage cover with similar certainty to that of the PCA. We conclude that the greatest challenge facing indirect estimation of L in forests using photographic methods is to separate the effects of foliage angle from those of foliage clumping. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

High rates of growth recorded for hawksbill sea turtles in Anegada, British Virgin Islands.

Management of species of conservation concern requires knowledge of demographic parameters, such as rates of recruitment, survival, and growth. In the Caribbean, hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) have been historically exploited in huge numbers to satisfy trade in their shells and meat. In the present study, we estimated growth rate of juvenile hawksbill turtles around Anegada, British Virgin Islands, using capture-mark-recapture of 59 turtles over periods of up to 649 days. Turtles were recaptured up to six times, having moved up to 5.9 km from the release location. Across all sizes, turtles grew at an average rate of 9.3 cm year(-1) (range 2.3-20.3 cm year(-1)), and gained mass at an average of 3.9 kg year(-1) (range 850 g-16.1 kg year(-1)). Carapace length was a significant predictor of growth rate and mass gain, but there was no relationship between either variable and sea surface temperature. These are among the fastest rates of growth reported for this species, with seven turtles growing at a rate that would increase their body size by more than half per year (51-69% increase in body length). This study also demonstrates the importance of shallow water reef systems for the developmental habitat for juvenile hawksbill turtles. Although growth rates for posthatching turtles in the pelagic, and turtles larger than 61 cm, are not known for this population, the implications of this study are that Caribbean hawksbill turtles in some areas may reach body sizes suggesting sexual maturity in less time than previously considered.This work was part funded by the UK Darwin Initiative (Project Ref. No. 162/12/023), NERC and the Japan Bekko Association. LAH is supported by Streamlining of Ocean Wavefarms Impact Assessment (SOWFIA) project and MJW was in receipt of a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) PhD studentship (NER/S/A/ 2004/12980) during the fieldwork. We thank the BVI National Parks Trust for their support and assistance. All work was sanctioned by the Conservation and Fisheries Department of the British Virgin Islands Government

Joint modelling rationale for chained equations.

BACKGROUND: Chained equations imputation is widely used in medical research. It uses a set of conditional models, so is more flexible than joint modelling imputation for the imputation of different types of variables (e.g. binary, ordinal or unordered categorical). However, chained equations imputation does not correspond to drawing from a joint distribution when the conditional models are incompatible. Concurrently with our work, other authors have shown the equivalence of the two imputation methods in finite samples. METHODS: Taking a different approach, we prove, in finite samples, sufficient conditions for chained equations and joint modelling to yield imputations from the same predictive distribution. Further, we apply this proof in four specific cases and conduct a simulation study which explores the consequences when the conditional models are compatible but the conditions otherwise are not satisfied. RESULTS: We provide an additional "non-informative margins" condition which, together with compatibility, is sufficient. We show that the non-informative margins condition is not satisfied, despite compatible conditional models, in a situation as simple as two continuous variables and one binary variable. Our simulation study demonstrates that as a consequence of this violation order effects can occur; that is, systematic differences depending upon the ordering of the variables in the chained equations algorithm. However, the order effects appear to be small, especially when associations between variables are weak. CONCLUSIONS: Since chained equations is typically used in medical research for datasets with different types of variables, researchers must be aware that order effects are likely to be ubiquitous, but our results suggest they may be small enough to be negligible

Introduction: Turnaround and let-down: making sense of Brazil and Africa after the surge

By improving political connections under a common South-South aegis, promoting new trade opportunities and expanding the disbursement of significant amounts of development cooperation, Brazil quickly secured a foothold of its own in Africa between 2003 and 2014. However, in the face of a political meltdown and of controversial judicial investigations back home, Brazil’s inversions in Africa have since then essentially collapsed. This abrupt turnaround calls for a more critical exegesis of the years of expansion. What were the main successes and failures of Brazil’s overall strategy towards Africa? And what does the dramatic change of events, with Brazil moving from a pivotal player to an almost invisible one in merely half a decade, tell us about the possibility of a new pick-up of interest for Africa? This introduction to the edited volume takes stock of the main trends in previous literature over the character and content of Brazil’s foreign policy towards the continent and sets the ground for the following chapters.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio