Prediction of the Caspian Sea level using ECMWF seasonal forecasts and reanalysis

This article is made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited.The hydrological budget of the Caspian Sea (CS) is investigated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERAi) and seasonal forecast (FCST) data with the aim of predicting the Caspian Sea Level (CSL) some months ahead. Precipitation and evaporation are used. After precipitation events over the Volga River, the discharge (Volga River discharge (VRD)) follows with delays, which are parameterized. The components of the water budget from ERAi and FCSTs are integrated to obtain time series of the CSL. Observations of the CSL and the VRD are used for comparison and tuning. The quality of ERAi data is sufficiently good to calculate the time variability of the CSL with a satisfactory accuracy. Already the storage of water within the Volga Basin allows forecasts of the CSL a few months ahead, and using the FCSTs of precipitation improves the CSL forecasts. The evaporation in the seasonal forecasts is deficient due to unrealistic sea surface temperatures over the CS. Impacts of different water budget terms on the CSL variability are shown by a variety of validation tools. The importance of precipitation anomalies over the catchment of the Volga River is confirmed, but also impacts from the two southern rivers (Sefidrud and Kura River) and the evaporation over the CS become obvious for some periods. When pushing the FCSTs beyond the limits of the seasonal FCSTs to 1 year, considerable forecast skill can still be found. Validating only FCSTs by the present approach, which show the same trend as one based on a statistical method, significantly enhances the skill scores

Spectral counting assessment of protein dynamic range in cerebrospinal fluid following depletion with plasma-designed immunoaffinity columns

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), which is a rich source of biomarkers for neurological diseases, identification of biomarkers requires methods that allow reproducible detection of low abundance proteins. It is therefore crucial to decrease dynamic range and improve assessment of protein abundance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We applied LC-MS/MS to compare the performance of two CSF enrichment techniques that immunodeplete either albumin alone (IgYHSA) or 14 high-abundance proteins (IgY14). In order to estimate dynamic range of proteins identified, we measured protein abundance with APEX spectral counting method.</p> <p>Both immunodepletion methods improved the number of low-abundance proteins detected (3-fold for IgYHSA, 4-fold for IgY14). The 10 most abundant proteins following immunodepletion accounted for 41% (IgY14) and 46% (IgYHSA) of CSF protein content, whereas they accounted for 64% in non-depleted samples, thus demonstrating significant enrichment of low-abundance proteins. Defined proteomics experiment metrics showed overall good reproducibility of the two immunodepletion methods and MS analysis. Moreover, offline peptide fractionation in IgYHSA sample allowed a 4-fold increase of proteins identified (520 vs. 131 without fractionation), without hindering reproducibility.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The novelty of this study was to show the advantages and drawbacks of these methods side-to-side. Taking into account the improved detection and potential loss of non-target proteins following extensive immunodepletion, it is concluded that both depletion methods combined with spectral counting may be of interest before further fractionation, when searching for CSF biomarkers. According to the reliable identification and quantitation obtained with APEX algorithm, it may be considered as a cheap and quick alternative to study sample proteomic content.</p

Diabetes mellitus in Egypt: glycaemic control and microvascular and neuropathic complications

We performed a cross-sectional, population-based survey of persons 20 years of age and older living in Cairo and surrounding rural villages. The purpose was to describe glycaemic control and the prevalence of microvascular and neuropathic complications among Egyptians with diagnosed diabetes, previously undiagnosed diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance, and normal glucose tolerance. A total of 6052 households were surveyed. The response rate was 76 % for the household survey and 72 % for the medical examination. Among people with previously diagnosed diabetes, mean haemoglobin A 1c was 9.0 %. Forty-two per cent had retinopathy, 21 % albuminuria, and 22 % neuropathy. Legal blindness was prevalent (5 %) but clinical nephropathy (7 %) and foot ulcers (1 %) were uncommon in persons with diagnosed diabetes. Among people with diagnosed diabetes, microvascular and neuropathic complications were associated with hyperglycaemia. Retinopathy was also associated with duration of diabetes; albuminuria with hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia; and neuropathy with age, female sex, and hypercholesterolaemia. Albuminuria was as common in people with previously undiagnosed diabetes (22 %) as those with diagnosed disease (21 %). Mean haemoglobin A 1c was lower (7.8 %) and retinopathy (16 %) and neuropathy (14 %) were less prevalent in people with previously undiagnosed disease. Ocular conditions, blindness, and neuropathy were prevalent in the non-diabetic population. The microvascular and neuropathic complications of diabetes are a major clinical and public health problem in Egypt. Copyright © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/34940/1/696_ftp.pd

Characterising droughts in Central America with uncertain hydro-meteorological data

Central America is frequently affected by droughts that cause significant socio-economic and environmental problems. Drought characterisation, monitoring and forecasting are potentially useful to support water resource management. Drought indices are designed for these purposes, but their ability to characterise droughts depends on the characteristics of the regional climate and the quality of the available data. Local comprehensive and high-quality observational networks of meteorological and hydrological data are not available, which limits the choice of drought indices and makes it important to assess available datasets. This study evaluated which combinations of drought index and meteorological dataset were most suitable for characterising droughts in the region. We evaluated the standardised precipitation index (SPI), a modified version of the deciles index (DI), the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the effective drought index (EDI). These were calculated using precipitation data from the Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), the CRN073 dataset, the Climate Research Unit (CRU), ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and a regional station dataset, and temperature from the CRU and ERA-Interim datasets. The gridded meteorological precipitation datasets were compared to assess how well they captured key features of the regional climate. The performance of all the drought indices calculated with all the meteorological datasets was then evaluated against a drought index calculated using river discharge data. Results showed that the selection of database was more important than the selection of drought index and that the best combinations were the EDI and DI calculated with CHIRPS and CRN073. Results also highlighted the importance of including indices like SPEI for drought assessment in Central America.Universidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-810]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-A9-532]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B3-600]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-065]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B3-413]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B4-227]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B4-228]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B5-295]/UCR/Costa RicaUppsala University/[54100006]//SueciaMarie Curie Intra-European Fellowship/[No.329762]//EuropaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)UCR::Vicerrectoría de Docencia::Ciencias Básicas::Facultad de Ciencias::Escuela de Físic

Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface

There is a strong drive towards hyperresolution earth system models in order to resolve finer scales of motion in the atmosphere. The problem of obtaining more realistic representation of terrestrial fluxes of heat and water, however, is not just a problem of moving to hyperresolution grid scales. It is much more a question of a lack of knowledge about the parameterisation of processes at whatever grid scale is being used for a wider modelling problem. Hyperresolution grid scales cannot alone solve the problem of this hyperresolution ignorance. This paper discusses these issues in more detail with specific reference to land surface parameterisations and flood inundation models. The importance of making local hyperresolution model predictions available for evaluation by local stakeholders is stressed. It is expected that this will be a major driving force for improving model performance in the future. Keith BEVEN, Hannah CLOKE, Florian PAPPENBERGER, Rob LAMB, Neil HUNTE

Using the Fire Weather Index (FWI) to improve the estimation of fire emissions from fire radiative power (FRP) observations

The atmospheric composition analysis and forecast for the European Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS) relies on biomass-burning fire emission estimates from the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS). The GFAS is a global system and converts fire radiative power (FRP) observations from MODIS satellites into smoke constituents. Missing observations are filled in using persistence, whereby observed FRP values from the previous day are progressed in time until a new observation is recorded. One of the consequences of this assumption is an increase of fire duration, which in turn translates into an increase of emissions estimated from fires compared to what is available from observations. In this study persistence is replaced by modelled predictions using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which describes how atmospheric conditions affect the vegetation moisture content and ultimately fire duration. The skill in predicting emissions from biomass burning is improved with the new technique, which indicates that using an FWI-based model to infer emissions from FRP is better than persistence when observations are not available

Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast : a risk-based decision-making game

EGU General Assembly 2016, Vienna, AUT, 17-/04/2016 - 22/04/2016International audienceForecast uncertainty is a twofold issue, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic forecasts over deterministic forecasts for a diversity of activities in the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binarydecision. The setup and the results of a risk-based decision-making experiment, designed as a game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called &amp;#8220;How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?&amp;#8221;, will be presented. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, including during this session at the EGU conference in 2015, and a total of 129 worksheets were collected and analysed. The aim of this experiment was to contribute to the understanding of the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers.Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game showed that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers. Balancing avoided costs and the cost (or the benefit) of having forecasts available for making decisions is not straightforward, even in a simplified gamesituation, and is a topic that deserves more attention from the hydrological forecasting community in the future

Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: Expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication

The aim of this article is to improve the communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) by understanding perceptions of different methods of visualizing probabilistic forecast information. This study focuses on interexpert communication and accounts for differences in visualization requirements based on the information content necessary for individual users. The perceptions of the expert group addressed in this study are important because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to nonexperts. In this article, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about the best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider the essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this article, we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable. Copyright 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd