Practitioner Interview

Phone interview with Kirk Westphal from CDM Smith by Emily Berglund and David Watkins, Jr.. Interview questions asked inquired about (i) practitioner’s professional background, (ii) practitioner’s personal experience with systems analysis techniques and software in their job, (iii) role, benefits, and challenges in using systems analysis concepts in the water resources engineering profession, and (iv) recommendations for improving education of environmental and water resources systems analysis in universities

Development of Extended Unimpaired Streamflow Records in the Saluda Basin, South Carolina

This paper presents the steps involved and the methodologies employed in the first phase of the South Carolina Surface Water Assessment - development of extended and unimpaired streamflow estimates based on USGS gage data in the Saluda basin. Streamflow data are first adjusted to remove effects of anthropogenic impairments. Adjustments are made for reservoirs, withdrawals, and discharges based on available documentation. Where documentation is insufficient, hindcasting methods are used. The resulting datasets are called unimpaired flows (UIFs). The UIFs are then extended in time from 1925, the starting date of the first continuous stream discharge data available in the basin, through 2013. Candidate reference gages for each short-record gage are selected based on a qualitative assessment. Area ratio and Maintenance of Variance Extension (Hirsch, 1982) methods are applied. Statistical and graphical evaluation of the extension results is followed by composition of extended UIFs

Age of first arrest varies by gambling status in a cohort of young adults

Background and Objectives: To describe the association between social and problem gambling and first criminal arrest by age 23 in a cohort of urban, mainly African-American youth. Methods: Data for this study were derived from several annual interviews being completed on a community sample of 617 participants during late adolescence until age 23. Information on gambling status, engagement in deviant behaviors, illegal drug use, and arrest history were collected through yearly interviews. Analysis was carried out using Nelson–Aalen cumulative hazard models and simple and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Results: More problem gamblers had been arrested before age 23 than social gamblers and non-gamblers, ie, 65% of problem gamblers were arrested before age 23, compared to 38% of social gamblers and 24% non-gamblers. Social gambling was only significantly associated with the hazard of first arrest by age 23 in the unadjusted model (HR: 1.6, p < .001), but not after adjustment for covariates (HR: 1.1, p = .47). Problem gambling was significantly associated with the hazard of first arrest by age 23 years in the unadjusted (HR: 3.6, p < .001) and adjusted models (HR: 1.6, p = .05). Conclusions and Scientific Significance: Problem gambling was significantly associated with earlier age of being arrested. Dilution effects after adjustment for several deviant behaviors and illegal drug use by age 17 suggest that youth exposure to certain common factors may result in engagement in multiple risky behaviors, including problem gambling. Studies are needed to investigate the developmental pathways that lead to these combined behaviors among youth

Effectiveness of the head CT choice decision aid in parents of children with minor head trauma: study protocol for a multicenter randomized trial

Background: Blunt head trauma is a common cause of death and disability in children worldwide. Cranial computed tomography (CT), the reference standard for the diagnosis of traumatic brain injury (TBI), exposes children to ionizing radiation which has been linked to the development of brain tumors, leukemia, and other cancers. We describe the methods used to develop and test the effectiveness of a decision aid to facilitate shared decision-making with parents regarding whether to obtain a head CT scan or to further observe their child at home. Methods/Design: This is a protocol for a multicenter clinician-level parallel randomized trial to compare an intervention group receiving a decision aid, ‘Head CT Choice’, to a control group receiving usual care. The trial will be conducted at five diverse emergency departments (EDs) in Minnesota and California. Clinicians will be randomized to decision aid or usual care. Parents visiting the ED with children who are less than 18-years-old, have experienced blunt head trauma within 24 hours, and have one or two risk factors for clinically-important TBI (ciTBI) from the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network head injury clinical prediction rules will be eligible for enrollment. We will measure the effect of Head CT Choice on: (1) parent knowledge regarding their child’s risk of ciTBI, the available diagnostic options, and the risks of radiation exposure associated with a cranial CT scan (primary outcome); (2) parent engagement in the decision-making process; (3) the degree of conflict parents experience related to feeling uninformed; (4) patient and clinician satisfaction with the decision made; (5) the rate of ciTBI at seven days; (6) the proportion of patients in whom a cranial CT scan is obtained; and (7) seven-day healthcare utilization. To capture these outcomes, we will administer parent and clinician surveys immediately after each clinical encounter, obtain video recordings of parent-clinician discussions, administer parent healthcare utilization diaries, analyze hospital billing records, review the electronic medical record, and conduct telephone follow-up. Discussion: This multicenter trial will robustly assess the effectiveness of a decision aid on patient-centered outcomes, safety, and healthcare utilization in parents of children with minor head trauma in five diverse EDs. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT02063087. Registration date February 13, 2014

Saturn Atmospheric Structure and Dynamics

2 Saturn inhabits a dynamical regime of rapidly rotating, internally heated atmospheres similar to Jupiter. Zonal winds have remained fairly steady since the time of Voyager except in the equatorial zone and slightly stronger winds occur at deeper levels. Eddies supply energy to the jets at a rate somewhat less than on Jupiter and mix potential vorticity near westward jets. Convective clouds exist preferentially in cyclonic shear regions as on Jupiter but also near jets, including major outbreaks near 35°S associated with Saturn electrostatic discharges, and in sporadic giant equatorial storms perhaps generated from frequent events at depth. The implied meridional circulation at and below the visible cloud tops consists of upwelling (downwelling) at cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) shear latitudes. Thermal winds decay upward above the clouds, implying a reversal of the circulation there. Warm-core vortices with associated cyclonic circulations exist at both poles, including surrounding thick high clouds at the south pole. Disequilibrium gas concentrations in the tropical upper troposphere imply rising motion there. The radiative-convective boundary and tropopause occur at higher pressure in the southern (summer) hemisphere due to greater penetration of solar heating there. A temperature “knee ” of warm air below the tropopause, perhaps due to haze heating, is stronger in the summer hemisphere as well. Saturn’s south polar stratosphere is warmer than predicted by radiative models and enhanced in ethane, suggesting subsidence-driven adiabatic warming there. Recent modeling advances suggest that shallow weather laye