Market response to investor sentiment : [version January 2011]

This paper reconsiders the effect of investor sentiment on stock prices. Using survey-based sentiment indicators from Germany and the US we confirm previous findings of predictability at intermediate time horizons. The main contribution of our paper is that we also analyze the immediate price reaction to the publication of sentiment indicators. We find that the sign of the immediate price reaction is the same as that of the predictability at intermediate time horizons. This is consistent with sentiment being related to mispricing but is inconsistent with the alternative explanation that sentiment indicators provide information about future expected returns. JEL Classification: G12, G14 Keywords: Investor Sentiment , Event Study , Return Predictabilit

Market response to investor sentiment

Recent empirical research suggests that measures of investor sentiment have predictive power for future stock returns over the intermediate and long term. Given the widespread publication of sentiment indicators, smart investors should trade on the information conveyed by such indicators and thus trigger an immediate market response to their publication. The present paper is the first to empirically analyze whether an immediate response can be identified from the data. We use survey-based sentiment indicators from two countries (Germany and the US). Consistent with previous research we find there is predictability at intermediate time horizons. For the US, however, the predictability disappears after 1994. Using event study methodology we find that the publication of sentiment indicators affects market returns. The sign of the immediate response is the same as that of the predictability over the intermediate term. This finding is consistent with the idea that sentiment is related to mispricing, but is inconsistent with the idea that the sentiment indicator provides information about future expected returns. --Investor Sentiment,Event Study,Return Predictability

Das Problem der Äquivalenz in der kontrastiven Semantik

Unter dem Schwerpunkt dieses Themas möchte ich von Erfahrungen und Ergebnissen berichten, die auf die Arbeit an meinen Projekten zu einem kontrastiven Lernwörterbuch und einem computergestützten Lernprogramm an der Universität Leiden in den Niederlanden zurückgehen

Neuropsychologie der Depression : Die Bedeutung von Suizidalität und Impulsivität

Hintergrund: Im Jahr 2000 wurden in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland über 11.000 Suizide registriert, die Zahl der Suizidversuche wird auf 100.000 bis 500.000 geschätzt. Im Rahmen von psychiatrischen Erkrankungen steigt das Suizidrisiko erheblich. So besteht auch bei der Depression eine erhöhte Suizidgefahr. Aktuell wird die Frage diskutiert, inwiefern Suizidalität (im Sinne eines vorangegangen Suizidversuchs) eine eigene Störung bzw. nosologische Entität darstellt und nicht lediglich komorbides Symptom vieler Erkrankungen ist. Insbesondere scheint ein enger Zusammenhang zwischen Suizidalität und überdauernder Impulsivität und Aggression zu bestehen, was auf einen suizidalen Phänotyp hindeutet. Neurobiologisch ist sowohl Suizidalität als auch Impul-sivität und Aggression mit Veränderungen im frontalen Kortex assoziiert, dort insbesondere mit einer gestörten Funktion des orbitofrontalen Kortex. Ebenso werden sowohl Suizidalität als auch Impulsivität und Aggression mit Veränderungen im serotonergen System in Verbindung gebracht. Diese neurobiologischen Überschneidungen legen die Vermutung nahe, dass eine gemeinsame frontale bzw. mit dem serotonergen System assoziierte Störung existiert, die Grundlage oder zumindest wichtiger Bestandteil suizidalen und impulsiven Verhaltens ist. Veränderungen im frontalen Kortex gehen mit Leistungseinbußen im exekutiven Bereich einher. Bisher existieren erst äußerst wenige neuropsychologische Arbeiten, die sich mit Suizidenten (Patienten mit Suizidversuch in der Vorgeschichte) befasst haben. Diese Untersuchungen konnten nicht klären, ob suizidale Patienten ein spezifisches neuropsychologisches Profil aufweisen, das sie von den anderen psychiatrischen Patienten unterscheidet.Methodik: Es wurde in der vorliegenden Studie mithilfe neuropsychologischer und persönlichkeitsbezogener Testverfahren versucht, Unterscheidungsmerkmale zwischen depressiven Suizidenten, depressiven Patienten ohne vorangegangen Suizidversuch und gesunden Probanden zu belegen. Dazu wurden 29 Patienten mit Major Depression, die einen Suizidversuch innerhalb der letzten drei Monate verübt hatten, 29 gesunde Kontrollprobanden und 20 teilremittierte Depressive ohne Suizidversuch in der Vergangenheit untersucht. Um die Heterogenität der Stichprobe zu reduzieren wurden nur unipolar Depressive ohne psychotische Symptome eingeschlossen. Die Wahl teilremittierter Depressiver als klinische Kontrollgruppe erfolgte, weil die Gruppe der Patienten mit einem Suizidversuch innerhalb der letzten drei Monate meist schone mehrere Wochen psychiatrisch behandelt wurden und hinsichtlich der Schwere depressiver Symptomatik ebenfalls teilremittiert waren. Ergebnisse: Erwartungsgemäß waren Aspekte suizidalen Verhaltens mit verschiedenen Facetten von Impulsivität assoziiert. Die Anzahl der bisherigen Suizidversuche korrelierte positiv mit Impul-sivität (Barratt Impulsivitätsinventar), Aggression (Fragebogen für Aggressionsfaktoren) und Ärger (State-Trait-Ärger-Ausdrucksinventar). Hoch impulsive Personen neigten zu Suizidhandlungen, die weniger geplant und potentiell weniger letal waren („Suicide Intention Sca-le“). Patienten, die multiple Suizidversuche verübt hatten, waren impulsiver als die Kontrollpersonen. Wider Erwarten war die klinische Kontrollgruppe der remittierten Depressiven durch eine starke Ärgerdisposition gekennzeichnet und nicht die Suizidenten. Diese unterschieden sich von den remittierten depressiven Probanden durch vermehrt nach innen gerichteten Ärger und Selbstaggression, wobei zu erwähnen ist, dass beide Patientengruppen mehr Ärger nach innen richteten und größere Selbstaggression aufwiesen als die gesunden Kontrollprobanden. Ebenso hatten sie allgemein eine höhere Aggressivität als die gesunden Versuchspersonen. Zusammengenommen schienen Ärger und Aggression nicht per se die entscheidenden Merkmale von Suizidalität zu sein, sondern eher Depressivität zu kennzeichnen. Die Stärke, mit der Patienten diese Emotionen unterdrücken bzw. auf sich selbst richten, war aber charakteristisch für Suizidalität. Bemerkenswert war in diesen Zusammenhang, dass weder Selbstaggression noch nach innen gerichteter Ärger mit der depressiven Symptomatik korreliert waren. Beide Patientengruppen zeigten eine schlechtere verbale Lernleistung als die Kontrollprobanden, jedoch nur die teilremittierten Depressiven hatten ein deutlich schlechteres Langzeitgedächtnis im Vergleich zu der gesunden Stichprobe, was auch in einer verminderten Rekognition zum Ausdruck kam. Das mnestische Profil der Suizidenten entsprach insgesamt nicht dem akut Depressiver und deutete im Gegensatz zu den remittierten Depressiven primär auf eine frontale, nicht aber auf eine temporomesiale Störung hin. Bei den impulsivitätsassoziierten neuropsychologischen Tests konnten die postulierten Defizite bei den Patienten nach Suizidversuch nur teilweise belegt werden: Männliche Suizidenten trafen schlechtere bzw. impulsivere Entscheidungen in der „Iowa Gambling Task“ in der Form, dass sie große Gewinne trotz hoher Verluste kleineren Gewinnen vorzogen, die langfristig ertragreicher wären. In einer „go/no-go“ Aufgabe machten die Suizidenten zwar mehr Auslassungsfehler, nicht aber Fehlreaktionen, welche spezifisch mit Impulsivität in Verbindung gebracht werden. Jedoch begingen sie in der „delayed alternation“ Aufgabe tendenziell mehr Fehler als die gesunden Probanden. Auch im d2 Aufmerksamkeits-Belastungs-Test hatten Suizidenten schlechtere Leistungen als die gesunde Kontrollgruppe. Die remittierten Depressiven wiesen keine exekutiven Defizite auf und lagen in ihren Leistungen numerisch zwischen Suizidenten und gesunden Probanden. Zwischen den klinischen Gruppen bestanden beim direkten Vergleich jedoch keine signifikanten neuropsychologischen Unterschiede.Fazit: Suizidalität lässt sich nicht von Depressivität durch impulsivitätsassoziierte neuropsychologi-sche Tests separieren. Die exekutiven Leistungsschwächen, die die Suizidenten im Vergleich zu den gesunden Probanden zeigten, sind mit dem Vorliegen einer depressiven Episode vereinbar und weisen nicht auf eine orbitofrontalkonzentrierte bzw. impulsivitätsbezogene Dysfunktion hin. Der fehlende Unterschied zwischen den klinischen Gruppen im neuropsychologischen Bereich verdeutlicht außerdem, dass Suizidalität im Rahmen depressiver Störungen zu keinem spezifischen neuropsychologischen Defizit führt. Wesentlich bedeutsamer scheint die mit persönlichkeitspsychologischen Verfahren messbare Steuerung von persönlichen Gefühlen wie Aggression und Ärger zu sein, die im Rahmen einer depressiven Störung verstärkt auftreten. Dabei ist für Patienten mit suizidalen Handlungen kennzeichnend, dass sie diese Emotionen unterdrücken und sehr auf sich selbst richten. Eine erhöhte Impulsivität scheint nur eine Subgruppe von Suizidenten zu charakterisieren, die multiple Suizidversuche unternommen haben. Diese waren in der vorliegenden Untersuchung zahlenmäßig unterrepräsentiert. Zukünftige Studien mit größeren Stichproben könnten durch eine geeignete Subgruppenbildung die Bedeutung von Impulsivität weiter klären. Die verbal mnestischen Defizite der teilremittierten Depressiven fügen sich in das Bild anderer neuropsychologischer Studien ein, die persistierende Gedächtnisdefizite auch bei weitge-hender Remission beschrieben haben.Neuropsychology of Depression - The role of suicidality and impulsivityBackground: In the year 2000, a total of 11.000 suicides was registered in Germany while the number of suicide attempts was estimated to be between 100.000 and 500.000. The risk of suicide is increased for most mental disorders e.g. depressive disorder. At present it remains unclear, whether suicidality (defined by a preceding suicide attempt) represents a distinct disorder, i.e. a nosological entity per se or wether it is merely a comorbid symptom of an underlying psychiatric disease. Associations found between suicidal behaviour and impulsivity and aggression point to a shared suicidal phenotype. Neurobiologically, suicidal behaviour as well as impulsiveness and aggression have been linked with disturbed orbitofrontal function. Additionally, all have been associated with an altered serotonergic transmission. Altogether, these findings suggest a suicidal phenotype based on the disturbed orbitofrontal and serotonergic function. Altered frontal functioning is associated with impaired executive performance. Only very few studies have examined the neuropsychological correlates of suicidal behaviour. Thus it remains unclear, if suicidal patients can be characterized by specific neuropsychological deficits that differ from those typically found in other (non-suicidal) patients with psychiatric disorders.Method: The aim of the present study was to find differences regarding cognitive performance and clinical parameters between depressive suicide attempters, depressive patients without a history of a suicide attempt and healthy controls by means of neuropsychological tests and clinical questionnaires. 29 patients with Major Depression with a history of a suicide attempt within the past 3 months, 29 healthy controls and 20 partly remitted depressive without suicidal behaviour were recruited. In order to minimize clinical heterogeneity of the sample only unipolar depressive patients without past or present psychotic symptoms were included. Clinical controls with partly remitted depression were recruited due to the fact that suicide attempters had already been treated for several weeks with a third of the showing remission.Results: As expected, suicidal behaviour was associated with different levels of impulsivity. The number of suicide attempts showed a positive correlation with impulsivity (Barratt Impulsiveness Scale), aggression (Inventory for the Assessment of Factors of Aggressiveness) and anger (State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory). Highly impulsive suicidal patients tended to plan their last suicide attempt less carefully resulting in reduced potential lethality (Suicide Intent Scale). Multiple suicide attempters were more impulsive compared with healthy controls. Contrary to our expectations, the partly remitted depressive controls but not the suicide attempters yielded the highest disposition for anger. Suicide attempters had higher scores on the suppressed anger and self-directed aggression scales compared with the partly remitted depressives though both groups yielded higher scores in relation to healthy controls. Altogether, anger and aggression seemed to be characteristics of the depressive disease and not indicators of suicidal behavior. The latter might rather be characterized by the self-directedness of anger and aggression. Interestingly, self-directed aggression and suppressed anger were not related to depressive symptoms. Both groups of patients yielded a reduced verbal learning capacity compared with healthy controls though only the partly remitted depressives exhibited significantly impaired long-term memory and recognition in comparison with the healthy participants. On the whole, memory impairment in the suicide attempters differed slightly from those typically seen in Major Depression. Moreover, in opposite to the mnestic dysfunctions of the clinical controls, memory performance of the suicide attempters primarily pointed to frontal and not mesio-temporal changes. The neuropsychological results partly supported the assumptions about an association with increased impulsivity: Male suicide attempters showed an impaired decision-making in the “Iowa Gambling Task”. They preferred huge gains despite of associated huge losses and did not choose small winnings that would have yielded a higher gain in the long run. The whole group of suicide attempters committed more omission errors in a “Go/No-Go Task” compared with healthy controls but not commission errors which are associated with increased impulsivity. Still, suicidal patients tended to make more mistakes in a “Delayed Alternation Task” and performed worse in a letter-cancellation-test compared with healthy controls. The partly remitted depressives without a history of a suicide attempt did not show any executive deficits. Numerically, they performed in-between suicide attempters and healthy participants. There was, however, no difference between suicide attempters’ and remitted depressive patients’ performance.Conclusions: Suicidal behavior can not be distinguished from depressive disorder by means of impulsivity associated neuropsychological tests. The executive deficits of suicide attempters in comparison to healthy controls are in line with cognitive dysfunctions seen in Major Depression and do not indicate a specific orbitofrontal or impulsivity-associated impairment. Furthermore, since suicide attempters and partly remitted depressives did not differ regarding their neuropsychological performance there is no evidence that suicidal behavior among patients with Major Depression does lead to specific neuropsychological deficits. Instead the way patients cope with personal feelings like aggression and anger - as measured with personality questionnaires – could be more important with regard to the identification of suicidal patients. These patients tend to suppress and direct those feelings against their own person. Impulsivity might only be increased in suicide attempters with multiple suicide attempts. There was a lack of this subgroup of suicidal patients in the present study. Future studies consisting of bigger samples may well clarify the role of impulsivity by dividing the patients into reasonable subgroups. Finally, the verbal mnestic deficits of the partly remitted depressives are in accordance with other neuropsychological studies which have reported persistent memory impairment even in the remitted phase of the illness

Occurrence and Distribution of Moganite and Opal-CT in Agates from Paleocene/Eocene Tuffs, El Picado (Cuba)

Agates in Paleocene/Eocene tuffs from El Picado/Los Indios, Cuba were investigated to characterize the mineral composition of the agates and to provide data for the reconstruction of agate forming processes. The volcanic host rocks are strongly altered and fractured and contain numerous fissures and veins mineralized by quartz and chalcedony. These features indicate secondary alteration and silicification processes during tectonic activities that may have also resulted in the formation of massive agates. Local accumulation of manganese oxides/hydroxides, as well as uranium (uranyl-silicate complexes), in the agates confirm their contemporaneous supply with SiO2 and the origin of the silica-bearing solutions from the alteration processes. The mineral composition of the agates is characterized by abnormal high bulk contents of opal-CT (>6 wt%) and moganite (>16 wt%) besides alpha-quartz. The presence of these elevated amounts of “immature” silica phases emphasize that agate formation runs through several structural states of SiO2 with amorphous silica as the first solid phase. A remarkable feature of the agates is a heterogeneous distribution of moganite within the silica matrix revealed by micro-Raman mapping. The intensity ratio of the main symmetric stretching-bending vibrations (A1 modes) of alpha-quartz at 465 cm−1 and moganite at 502 cm−1, respectively, was used to depict the abundance of moganite in the silica matrix. The zoned distribution of moganite and variations in the microtexture and porosity of the agates indicate a multi-phase deposition of SiO2 under varying physico-chemical conditions and a discontinuous silica supply

Elevated impulsivity and impaired decision-making cognition in heavy users of MDMA ("Ecstasy”)

Rationale: In animal studies, the common club drug 3,4-methylendioxymethamphetamine (MDMA, "Ecstasy”) consistently caused a prolonged loss of presynaptic serotonergic neurons, and evidence suggests that MDMA consumption may also affect the human serotonergic system. Serotonin (5-HT) has been implicated in the regulation of impulsivity and such executive functions as decision-making cognition. In fact, MDMA users have shown elevated impulsivity in two studies, but little is known about decision making in drug-free MDMA consumers. Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the cognitive neurotoxicity of MDMA with regard to behavioral impulsivity and decision-making cognition. Methods: Nineteen male, abstinent, heavy MDMA users; 19 male, abstinent cannabis users; and 19 male, drug-naïve controls were examined with the Matching Familiar Figures Test (MFFT) as well as with a Go/No-Go Task (GNG) for impulsivity and with a Gambling Task (GT) for executive functioning. Results: MDMA users showed significantly elevated impulsivity in the MFFT Impulsivity score (I-score), but not in commission errors of the GNG, compared with controls. Cannabis users did not yield altered impulsivity compared with controls. In the GT, MDMA users performed significantly worse than cannabis consumers and controls, whereas cannabis users exhibited the same decision-making capacity as controls. In addition, the I-score as well as the decision-making performance was correlated with measures of MDMA intake. The I-score and the decision-making performance were also correlated. Conclusion: These results suggest that heavy use of MDMA may elevate behavioral impulsivity and impair decision-making cognition possibly mediated by a selective impairment of the 5-HT syste

High diversity in neuropeptide immunoreactivity patterns among three closely related species of Dinophilidae (Annelida).

This is the author accepted manuscript.The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Neuropeptides are conserved metazoan signaling molecules, and represent useful markers for comparative investigations on the morphology and function of the nervous system. However, little is known about the variation of neuropeptide expression patterns across closely related species in invertebrate groups other than insects. In this study, we compare the immunoreactivity patterns of 14 neuropeptides in three closely related microscopic dinophilid annelids (Dinophilus gyrociliatus, D. taeniatus and Trilobodrilus axi). The brains of all three species were found to consist of around 700 somata, surrounding a central neuropil with 3-5 ventral and 2-5 dorsal commissures. Neuropeptide immunoreactivity was detected in the brain, the ventral cords, stomatogastric nervous system, and additional nerves. Different neuropeptides are expressed in specific, non-overlapping cells in the brain in all three species. FMRFamide, MLD/pedal peptide, allatotropin, RNamide, excitatory peptide, and FVRIamide showed a broad localization within the brain, while calcitonin, SIFamide, vasotocin, RGWamide, DLamide, FLamide, FVamide, MIP, and serotonin were present in fewer cells in demarcated regions. The different markers did not reveal ganglionic subdivisions or physical compartmentalization in any of these microscopic brains. The non-overlapping expression of different neuropeptides may indicate that the regionalization in these uniform, small brains is realized by individual cells, rather than cell clusters, representing an alternative to the lobular organization observed in several macroscopic annelids. Furthermore, despite the similar gross brain morphology, we found an unexpectedly high variation in the expression patterns of neuropeptides across species. This suggests that neuropeptide expression evolves faster than morphology, representing a possible mechanism for the evolutionary divergence of behaviors.Villum Fonde

Elevated impulsivity and impaired decision-making cognition in heavy users of MDMA (“Ecstasy”)

Rationale: In animal studies, the common club drug 3,4-methylendioxymethamphetamine (MDMA, "Ecstasy”) consistently caused a prolonged loss of presynaptic serotonergic neurons, and evidence suggests that MDMA consumption may also affect the human serotonergic system. Serotonin (5-HT) has been implicated in the regulation of impulsivity and such executive functions as decision-making cognition. In fact, MDMA users have shown elevated impulsivity in two studies, but little is known about decision making in drug-free MDMA consumers. Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the cognitive neurotoxicity of MDMA with regard to behavioral impulsivity and decision-making cognition. Methods: Nineteen male, abstinent, heavy MDMA users; 19 male, abstinent cannabis users; and 19 male, drug-naïve controls were examined with the Matching Familiar Figures Test (MFFT) as well as with a Go/No-Go Task (GNG) for impulsivity and with a Gambling Task (GT) for executive functioning. Results: MDMA users showed significantly elevated impulsivity in the MFFT Impulsivity score (I-score), but not in commission errors of the GNG, compared with controls. Cannabis users did not yield altered impulsivity compared with controls. In the GT, MDMA users performed significantly worse than cannabis consumers and controls, whereas cannabis users exhibited the same decision-making capacity as controls. In addition, the I-score as well as the decision-making performance was correlated with measures of MDMA intake. The I-score and the decision-making performance were also correlated. Conclusion: These results suggest that heavy use of MDMA may elevate behavioral impulsivity and impair decision-making cognition possibly mediated by a selective impairment of the 5-HT syste