O Papel da Economia, da Segurança e da Aceitação do Líder do Partido na Previsão das Eleições Gerais de 2020 na Jamaica

Three econometric models were built between January and March 2020 to predict the September 3, 2020 General Election in Jamaica. These are the economics and security model (model1), the economics and security model with JLP leader acceptance (model 2), and the economics and security model with PNP leader acceptance (model 3). All three models accurately predicted a win for the Jamaica Labour Party. A Jack-knife resampling was performed for cross validation. These models show how the macro-economy, security concerns and party leader popularity influence election outcomes, with similar findings in the literature. However, there are peculiarities in the Anglophone Caribbean because the/nJamaican voters respond to economic and security concerns in different ways than the voters in the global north. For example, increases in the debt to GDP ratio and the homicide rate predicted a JLP win. This work should be replicated in the Caribbean and Latin America using panel data.Entre los meses de enero y marzo del 2020 se construyeron tres modelos econométricos para predecir los resultados de las elecciones generales del 3 de septiembre de 2020 en Jamaica. El Modelo 1 era un modelo de economía y seguridad; el Modelo 2 un modelo de economía y seguridad con los niveles de aceptación del líder del Partido Laborista de Jamaica (JLP, por sus siglas en inglés), y el Modelo 3 un modelo de economía y seguridad con los niveles de aceptación del líder del Partido Nacional del Pueblo (PNP). Los tres modelos acertaron al proyectar una victoria electoral para el JLP. Como validación cruzada de los datos, se utilizó el método "Jack-knife" para realizar un remuestreo. Estos modelos demuestran que, como ya venían señalando otros estudios, los resultados electorales se ven influidos tanto por la macroeconomía, como por los problemas de seguridad y la popularidad del líder del partido. Sin embargo, se debe tener en cuenta la idiosincrasia del Caribe anglófono, ya que los votantes jamaicanos no responden a los problemas económicos y de seguridad de la misma manera que los votantes del Norte global. Por ejemplo, el aumento tanto del coeficiente deuda/PIB como de la tasa de homicidios llevaron a la proyección de una victoria electoral del JLP. Se necesitaría replicar el presente estudio en el Caribe y Latinoamérica utilizando datos de panel.Para prever as eleições gerais do 3 de setembro de 2020 na Jamaica, três modelos econométricos foram elaborarados. Estes são: o modelo econômico e securitário (o modelo nr. 1), o modelo econômico e securitário com a aceitação do líder do JLP (o modelo nr. 2), e o modelo econômico e securitário com a aceitação do líder do PNP (o modelo nr. 3). Os três modelos previram corretamente a vitória do Partido Trabalhista da Jamaica (JLP). Para a validação cruzada, o método "Jack-knife" foi executado. Estes modelos, apoiados pelos achados semelhantes nos dados, indicam a medida em que a macroeconomia, as preocupações com segurança e a popularidade do líder do partido podem influenciar os resultados das eleições. Sem embargo, existem particularidades no Caribe anglófono devido ao fato do que os eleitores jamaicanos reagem às preocupações econômicas e securitárias de maneiras diferentes dos eleitores do hemisfério norte. Por exemplo, os aumentos da relação dívida/PIB e a taxa de homicídios previram uma vitória para o JLP. Este estudo deve ser reproduzido no Caribe e na América Latina com a aplicação de painel de dados

An Examination of Wladimir Kaminer’s Humor

Humor is a quality of amusement that is evoked by mishap plus time. The source of the mishap may be a crude theme, embarrassing situation or interpersonal clash caused by various incongruencies. One must be chronologically and spatially removed from the occurrence for the situation to be considered humorous. The audience must have the ability to recognize and relate to the absurdity. Scholars recognize three main theories of humor. Superiority theory involves the application of judgement and superiority on themes or people who are often perceived as crude, lowly, or controversial. Relief theory sees humor as a means by which tense or embarrassing situations can be relieved, in which no harm is done to those involved. Incongruity theory emerges in situations where stark or subtle differences in culture or expectations cause an interpersonal clash, where each supposes his is the authentic perspective and the other’s the improper. Wladimir Kaminer (b. 1967) is a Russian-born immigrant to Germany and best-selling author of more than 20 books that describe the humorous interactions between Germans and immigrants to that country, especially Russians. To determine which theory best explained the humor in Kaminer’s works, each group member read one of Kaminer’s books, then suggested three chapters from their book that best highlight the humor of their respective title for group analysis. The chapters were analyzed by each group member for categorization under one, two, or all three theories of humor. The results were entered into a chart to visualize the distribution of the group’s individual evaluations of each chapter. A Venn diagram best illustrates our results, which show that the humor of most of the chapters is best explained by a combination of at least two theories with Incongruity Theory being the most common element of every combination. Conclusion After the four researchers examined 12 stories from four books, they determined that humor is most commonly displayed as a combination of two to three of the theories. Particularly in the humor of Wladimir Kaminer, incogruency theory forms the basis of most cases of humor. “The incongruity theory is the most important of the three explanation models since every comic effect can be traced back to a moment of incongruity” (Bogomolova 2010, p. 20)

Theory driven analysis of social class and health outcomes using UK nationally representative longitudinal data

Background Social class is frequently used as a means of ranking the population to expose inequalities in health, but less often as a means of understanding the social processes of causation. We explored how effectively different social class mechanisms could be measured by longitudinal cohort data and whether those measures were able to explain health outcomes. Methods Using a theoretically informed approach, we sought to map variables within the National Child Development Study (NCDS) to five different social class mechanisms: social background and early life circumstances; habitus and distinction; exploitation and domination; location within market relations; and power relations. Associations between the SF-36 physical, emotional and general health outcomes at age 50 years and the social class measures within NCDS were then assessed through separate multiple linear regression models. R2 values were used to quantify the proportion of variance in outcomes explained by the independent variables. Results We were able to map the NCDS variables to the each of the social class mechanisms except ‘Power relations’. However, the success of the mapping varied across mechanisms. Furthermore, although relevant associations between exposures and outcomes were observed, the mapped NCDS variables explained little of the variation in health outcomes: for example, for physical functioning, the R2 values ranged from 0.04 to 0.10 across the four mechanisms we could map. Conclusions This study has demonstrated both the potential and the limitations of available cohort studies in measuring aspects of social class theory. The relatively small amount of variation explained in the outcome variables in this study suggests that these are imperfect measures of the different social class mechanisms. However, the study lays an important foundation for further research to understand the complex interactions, at various life stages, between different aspects of social class and subsequent health outcomes

Novel method for combined linkage and genome-wide association analysis finds evidence of distinct genetic architecture for two subtypes of autism

The Autism Genome Project has assembled two large datasets originally designed for linkage analysis and genome-wide association analysis, respectively: 1,069 multiplex families genotyped on the Affymetrix 10 K platform, and 1,129 autism trios genotyped on the Illumina 1 M platform. We set out to exploit this unique pair of resources by analyzing the combined data with a novel statistical method, based on the PPL statistical framework, simultaneously searching for linkage and association to loci involved in autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Our analysis also allowed for potential differences in genetic architecture for ASD in the presence or absence of lower IQ, an important clinical indicator of ASD subtypes. We found strong evidence of multiple linked loci; however, association evidence implicating specific genes was low even under the linkage peaks. Distinct loci were found in the lower IQ families, and these families showed stronger and more numerous linkage peaks, while the normal IQ group yielded the strongest association evidence. It appears that presence/absence of lower IQ (LIQ) demarcates more genetically homogeneous subgroups of ASD patients, with not just different sets of loci acting in the two groups, but possibly distinct genetic architecture between them, such that the LIQ group involves more major gene effects (amenable to linkage mapping), while the normal IQ group potentially involves more common alleles with lower penetrances. The possibility of distinct genetic architecture across subtypes of ASD has implications for further research and perhaps for research approaches to other complex disorders as well

abd-A Regulation by the iab-8 Noncoding RNA

The homeotic genes in Drosophila melanogaster are aligned on the chromosome in the order of the body segments that they affect. The genes affecting the more posterior segments repress the more anterior genes. This posterior dominance rule must be qualified in the case of abdominal-A (abd-A) repression by Abdominal-B (Abd-B). Animals lacking Abd-B show ectopic expression of abd-A in the epidermis of the eighth abdominal segment, but not in the central nervous system. Repression in these neuronal cells is accomplished by a 92 kb noncoding RNA. This “iab-8 RNA” produces a micro RNA to repress abd-A, but also has a second, redundant repression mechanism that acts only “in cis.” Transcriptional interference with the abd-A promoter is the most likely mechanism

Longitudinal river zonation in the tropics: examples of fish and caddisflies from endorheic Awash river, Ethiopia

Primary Research PaperSpecific concepts of fluvial ecology are well studied in riverine ecosystems of the temperate zone but poorly investigated in the Afrotropical region. Hence, we examined the longitudinal zonation of fish and adult caddisfly (Trichoptera) assemblages in the endorheic Awash River (1,250 km in length), Ethiopia. We expected that species assemblages are structured along environmental gradients, reflecting the pattern of large-scale freshwater ecoregions. We applied multivariate statistical methods to test for differences in spatial species assemblage structure and identified characteristic taxa of the observed biocoenoses by indicator species analyses. Fish and caddisfly assemblages were clustered into highland and lowland communities, following the freshwater ecoregions, but separated by an ecotone with highest biodiversity. Moreover, the caddisfly results suggest separating the heterogeneous highlands into a forested and a deforested zone. Surprisingly, the Awash drainage is rather species-poor: only 11 fish (1 endemic, 2 introduced) and 28 caddisfly species (8 new records for Ethiopia) were recorded from the mainstem and its major tributaries. Nevertheless, specialized species characterize the highland forests, whereas the lowlands primarily host geographically widely distributed species. This study showed that a combined approach of fish and caddisflies is a suitable method for assessing regional characteristics of fluvial ecosystems in the tropicsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Identifying and evaluating field indicators of urogenital schistosomiasis-related morbidity in preschool-aged children

BACKGROUND:Several studies have been conducted quantifying the impact of schistosome infections on health and development in school-aged children. In contrast, relatively little is known about morbidity levels in preschool-aged children (≤ 5 years) who have been neglected in terms of schistosome research and control. The aim of this study was to compare the utility of available point-of-care (POC) morbidity diagnostic tools in preschool versus primary school-aged children (6-10 years) and determine markers which can be used in the field to identify and quantify Schistosoma haematobium-related morbidity. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:A comparative cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate the performance of currently available POC morbidity diagnostic tools on Zimbabwean children aged 1-5 years (n=104) and 6-10 years (n=194). Morbidity was determined using the POC diagnostics questionnaire-based reporting of haematuria and dysuria, clinical examination, urinalysis by dipsticks, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR). Attributable fractions were used to quantify the proportion of morbidity attributable to S. haematobium infection. Based on results of attributable fractions, UACR was identified as the most reliable tool for detecting schistosome-related morbidity, followed by dipsticks, visual urine inspection, questionnaires, and lastly clinical examination. The results of urine dipstick attributes showed that proteinuria and microhaematuria accounted for most differences between schistosome egg-positive and negative children (T=-50.1; p<0.001). These observations were consistent in preschool vs. primary school-aged children. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Preschool-aged children in endemic areas can be effectively screened for schistosome-related morbidity using the same currently available diagnostic tools applicable to older children. UACR for detecting albuminuria is recommended as the best choice for rapid assessment of morbidity attributed to S. haematobium infection in children in the field. The use of dipstick microhaematuria and proteinuria as additional indicators of schistosome-related morbidity would improve the estimation of disease burden in young children