Economic consequences of the HayWired scenario—digital and utility network linkages and resilience

The HayWired scenario examines a hypothetical earthquake (mainshock) with a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.0 occurring on April 18, 2018, at 4:18 p.m. on the Hayward Fault in the east bay part of California’s San Francisco Bay region. This study evaluates the economic impacts of the HayWired earthquake scenario on the greater San Francisco Bay region’s economy using a detailed multiregional static computable general equilibrium model for 6 months following the event and a simpler, multiregional intertemporal partial equilibrium simulation model for the dynamic recovery in the 17 years thereafter. Economic impacts are measured by the estimated reduction in the bay region’s gross regional product (GRP), the standard economic measure of the total value of final goods and services produced. The major hazards that cause property (buildings and contents) damages (or capital stock losses) are ground shaking, liquefaction, landslides, and fire following earthquake. Economic impacts in terms of GRP (or business interruption losses) caused by both capital stock losses and water and electricity utility and telecommunications-service disruptions from the HayWired earthquake sequence are estimated and are primarily caused by capital stock damages. The most vulnerable industry sectors are heavy manufacturing and service industries, such as education and healthcare. The hardest hit county (in absolute and relative terms) is Alameda County, followed by Santa Clara County. In the 6 months following the earthquake, total GRP losses are estimated to be $44.2 billion (4.2 percent of California’s projected baseline gross state product [GSP] over the period), but this result could be reduced by about 43 percent to$25.3 billion after factoring in microeconomic resilience tactics, which promote the efficient use of remaining resources. The most effective resilience tactic for businesses that experience property damages and power-service disruptions is production recapture (using overtime or extra shifts to catch up on lost production after necessary facilities and equipment have been repaired or replaced and power services have been restored). The most effective resilience tactic for water-service or data- and voice-service outages is production isolation (making greater use of processes that do not need these services). Production isolation combined with the use of portable equipment by telecommunication carriers to fast track data- and voice-service restoration can effectively reduce GRP losses below those imposed by power outages that are the greatest cause of data- and voice-service disruptions. Information and communications technology (ICT) sectors, which are the core of the digital economy, include internet publishing and broadcasting; telecommunications; data- processing, hosting, and related services; and other information services. GRP losses (in percent) in the ICT sectors show a strong correspondence with property damages, although internet publishing and broadcasting show a consistent pattern of GRP losses exceeding capital losses in counties less directly affected by the earthquake (San Mateo and San Francisco Counties) and counties that export 80 percent of these services (Marin, Solano, and Santa Cruz Counties). Internet publishing not only suffers direct economic damage but also suffers from smaller supplies of data-processing and telecommunications inputs, whose prices increase significantly. A simple, dynamic recovery model illustrates that initially, relative to “business as usual,” capital stocks in the largely unaffected remainder of the bay region and the rest of California decrease owing to reallocation of investment toward the most severely damaged counties. Eventually, counties with less damage gain from picking up the slack of lost capacity in the core of the damaged region and also provide valuable inputs to all affected counties by producing their goods and services during the recovery process.https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2017/5013/vol3/v/sir20175013v2.pdfPublished versio

Economic impacts of the SAFRR tsunami scenario in California

This study evaluates the hypothetical economic impacts of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario to the California economy. The SAFRR scenario simulates a tsunami generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that occurs offshore of the Alaska Peninsula (Kirby and others, 2013). Economic impacts are measured by the estimated reduction in California’s gross domestic product (GDP), the standard economic measure of the total value of goods and services produced. Economic impacts are derived from the physical damages from the tsunami as described by Porter and others (2013). The principal physical damages that result in disruption of the California economy are (1) about $100 million in damages to the twin Ports of Los Angeles (POLA) and Long Beach (POLB), (2) about$700 million in damages to marinas, and (3) about $2.5 billion in damages to buildings and contents (properties) in the tsunami inundation zone on the California coast. The study of economic impacts does not include the impacts from damages to roads, bridges, railroads, and agricultural production or fires in fuel storage facilities because these damages will be minimal with respect to the California economy. The economic impacts of damage to other California ports are not included in this study because detailed evaluation of the physical damage to these ports was not available in time for this report.https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/h/index.htmlhttps://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/h/index.htmlhttps://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/h/index.htmlAccepted manuscrip

The Many Facets of SDF-1α, CXCR4 Agonists and Antagonists on Hematopoietic Progenitor Cells

Stromal cell-derived factor-1alpha (SDF-1α) has pleiotropic effects on hematopoietic progenitor cells (HPCs). We have monitored podia formation, migration, proliferation, and cell-cell adhesion of human HPC under the influence of SDF-1α, a peptide agonist of CXCR4 (CTCE-0214), a peptide antagonist (CTCE-9908), and a nonpeptide antagonist (AMD3100). Whereas SDF-1α induced migration of CD34+ cells in a dose-dependent manner, CTCE-0214, CTCE-9908, and AMD3100 did not induce chemotaxis in this concentration range albeit the peptides CTCE-0214 and CTCE-9908 increased podia formation. Cell-cell adhesion of HPC to human mesenchymal stromal cells was impaired by the addition of SDF-1α, CTCE-0214, and AMD3100. Proliferation was not affected by SDF-1α or its analogs. Surface antigen detection of CXCR4 was reduced upon treatment with SDF-1α or AMD3100 and it was enhanced by CTCE-9908. Despite the fact that all these molecules target the same CXCR4 receptor, CXCR4 agonists and antagonists have selective effects on different functions of the natural molecule

The General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) and its Applications to Agricultural Systems in the United States

The General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) (Liu, 2009; Liu et al., 2004c) was developed to integrate well-established ecosystem biogeochemical models with various spatial databases for the simulations of biogeochemical cycles over large areas. Figure 18.1 shows the overall structure of the GEMS. Some of the key components are described below. General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) 310 Multiple Underlying Biogeochemical Models 310 Monte Carlo Simulations 311 Model Inputs: Management Practices and Others 311 Model Outputs 311 Data Assimilation 311 Simulation of Agricultural Practices: EDCM as an Example 312 Net Primary Production (NPP) and Improvements in Crop Genetics and Agronomics 312 Soil Carbon Dynamics 312 Impacts of Soil Erosion and Deposition 313 CH4 and N2O Fluxes 313 Study Areas and Modeling Design 314 Study Areas 314 Nebraska Eddy Flux Tower Sites 314 Regional Applications: Mississippi Valley and Prairie Potholes 315 Modeling Design 315 Results 316 Impacts of Management Practices on SOC at Site Scale 316 Quantification of Regional Carbon Stocks and GHG Fluxes 317 Prairie Pothole Region 317 Mississippi Valley 319 Discussion 32

Increasing Resiliency to Natural Hazards—A Strategic Plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California through the application of science to community decision making and emergency response. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by directing new and existing research towards the community’s needs, improving monitoring technology, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of the results. The natural hazards to be investigated in this project include coastal erosion, earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis, and wildfires. Americans are more at risk from natural hazards now than at any other time in our Nation’s history. Southern California, in particular, has one of the Nation’s highest potentials for extreme catastrophic losses due to natural hazards, with estimates of expected losses exceeding $3 billion per year. These losses can only be reduced through the decisions of the southern California community itself. To be effective, these decisions must be guided by the best information about hazards, risk, and the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies. The USGS will work with collaborators to set the direction of the research and to create multi-hazard risk frameworks where communities can apply the results of scientific research to their decision-making processes. Partners include state, county, city, and public-lands government agencies, public and private utilities, companies with a significant impact and presence in southern California, academic researchers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and local emergency response agencies. Prior to the writing of this strategic plan document, three strategic planning workshops were held in February and March 2006 at the USGS office in Pasadena to explore potential relationships. The goal of these planning sessions was to determine the external organizations’ needs for mitigation efforts before potential natural hazard events, and response efforts during and after the event. On the basis of input from workshop participants, four priority areas were identified for future research to address. They are (1) helping decision makers design planning scenarios, (2) improving upon the mapping of multiple hazards in urban areas, (3) providing real-time information from monitoring networks, and (4) integrating information in a risk and decision-making analysis. Towards this end, short-term and out-year goals have been outlined with the priorities in mind. First-year goals are (1) to engage the user community to establish the structures and processes for communications and interactions, (2) to develop a program to create scenarios of anticipated disasters, beginning in the first year with a scenario of a southern San Andreas earthquake that triggers secondary hazards, (3) to compile existing datasets of geospatial data, and (4) to target research efforts to support more complete and robust products in future years. Both the first-year and out-year goals have been formulated around a working-group structure that builds on existing research strengths within the USGS. The project is intended to demonstrate how developments in methodology and products can lead to improvement in our management of natural hazards in an urban environment for application across the Nation

Serum after Autologous Transplantation Stimulates Proliferation and Expansion of Human Hematopoietic Progenitor Cells

Regeneration after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) depends on enormous activation of the stem cell pool. So far, it is hardly understood how these cells are recruited into proliferation and self-renewal. In this study, we have addressed the question if systemically released factors are involved in activation of hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HPC) after autologous HSCT. Serum was taken from patients before chemotherapy, during neutropenia and after hematopoietic recovery. Subsequently, it was used as supplement for in vitro culture of CD34+ cord blood HPC. Serum taken under hematopoietic stress (4 to 11 days after HSCT) significantly enhanced proliferation, maintained primitive immunophenotype (CD34+, CD133+, CD45−) for more cell divisions and increased colony forming units (CFU) as well as the number of cobblestone area-forming cells (CAFC). The stimulatory effect decays to normal levels after hematopoietic recovery (more than 2 weeks after HSCT). Chemokine profiling revealed a decline of several growth-factors during neutropenia, including platelet-derived growth factors PDGF-AA, PDGF-AB and PDGF-BB, whereas expression of monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1) increased. These results demonstrate that systemically released factors play an important role for stimulation of hematopoietic regeneration after autologous HSCT. This feedback mechanism opens new perspectives for in vivo stimulation of the stem cell pool

Adaptation to Climate Change: Changes in Farmland Use and Stocking Rate in the U.S.

This paper examines possible adaptations to climate change in terms of pasture and crop land use and stocking rate in the United States (U.S.). Using Agricultural Census and climate data in a statistical model, we find that as temperature and precipitation increases agricultural commodity producers respond by reducing crop land and increasing pasture land. In addition, cattle stocking rate decreases as the summer Temperature-humidity Index (THI) increases and summer precipitation decreases. Using the statistical model with climate data from four General Circulation Models (GCMs), we project that land use shifts from cropping to grazing and the stocking rate declines, and these adaptations are more pronounced in the central and the southeast regions of the U.S. Controlling for other farm production variables, crop land decreases by 6 % and pasture land increases by 33 % from the baseline. Correspondingly, the associated economic impact due to adaptation is around −14 and 29 million dollars to crop producers and pasture producers by the end of this century, respectively. The national and regional results have implications for farm programs and subsidy policies