A weak spectral signature of water vapour in the atmosphere of HD 179949 b at high spectral resolution in the L band

High-resolution spectroscopy (⁠R⩾20000⁠) is currently the only known method to constrain the orbital solution and atmospheric properties of non-transiting hot Jupiters. It does so by resolving the spectral features of the planet into a forest of spectral lines and directly observing its Doppler shift while orbiting the host star. In this study, we analyse VLT/CRIRES (⁠R=100000⁠) L-band observations of the non-transiting giant planet HD 179949 b centred around 3.5 μm⁠. We observe a weak (3.0σ, or S/N = 4.8) spectral signature of H2O in absorption contained within the radial velocity of the planet at superior-conjunction, with a mild dependence on the choice of line list used for the modelling. Combining this data with previous observations in the K band, we measure a detection significance of 8.4 σ for an atmosphere that is most consistent with a shallow lapse-rate, solar C/O ratio, and with CO and H2O being the only major sources of opacity in this wavelength range. As the two sets of data were taken 3 yr apart, this points to the absence of strong radial-velocity anomalies due, e.g. to variability in atmospheric circulation. We measure a projected orbital velocity for the planet of KP = (145.2 ± 2.0) km s−1 (1σ) and improve the error bars on this parameter by ∼70 per cent. However, we only marginally tighten constraints on orbital inclination (⁠66.2+3.7−3.1 deg) and planet mass (⁠0.963+0.036−0.031 Jupiter masses), due to the dominant uncertainties of stellar mass and semimajor axis. Follow ups of radial-velocity planets are thus crucial to fully enable their accurate characterization via high-resolution spectroscopy

Small scale energy release driven by supergranular flows on the quiet Sun

In this article we present data and modelling for the quiet Sun that strongly suggest a ubiquitous small-scale atmospheric heating mechanism that is driven solely by converging supergranular flows. A possible energy source for such events is the power transfer to the plasma via the work done on the magnetic field by photospheric convective flows, which exert drag of the footpoints of magnetic structures. In this paper we present evidence of small scale energy release events driven directly by the hydrodynamic forces that act on the magnetic elements in the photosphere, as a result of supergranular scale flows. We show strong spatial and temporal correlation between quiet Sun soft X-ray emission (from <i>Yohkoh</i> and <i>SOHO</i> MDI-derived flux removal events driven by deduced photospheric flows. We also present a simple model of heating generated by flux submergence, based on particle acceleration by converging magnetic mirrors. In the near future, high resolution soft X-ray images from XRT on the <i>Hinode</i> satellite will allow definitive, quantitative verification of our results

Forecasting U.S. Home Foreclosures with an Index of Internet Keyword Searches

Finding data to feed into financial and risk management models can be challenging. Many analysts attribute a lack of data or quality information as a contributing factor to the worldwide financial crises that seems to have begun in the U.S. subprime mortgage market. In this paper, a new source of data, key word search statistics recently available from Google, are applied in a experiment to develop a short-term forecasting model for the number of foreclosures in the U.S. housing market. The keyword search data significantly improves forecast of foreclosures, suggesting that this data can be useful for financial risk management. More generally, the new data source shows promise for a variety of financial and market analyses

Dynamics of Coronal Bright Points as seen by Sun Watcher using Active Pixel System detector and Image Processing (SWAP), Atmospheric Imaging Assembly AIA), and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI)

The \textit{Sun Watcher using Active Pixel system detector and Image Processing}(SWAP) on board the \textit{PRoject for OnBoard Autonomy\todash 2} (PROBA\todash 2) spacecraft provides images of the solar corona in EUV channel centered at 174 \AA. These data, together with \textit{Atmospheric Imaging Assembly} (AIA) and the \textit{Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager} (HMI) on board \textit{Solar Dynamics Observatory} (SDO), are used to study the dynamics of coronal bright points. The evolution of the magnetic polarities and associated changes in morphology are studied using magnetograms and multi-wavelength imaging. The morphology of the bright points seen in low-resolution SWAP images and high-resolution AIA images show different structures, whereas the intensity variations with time show similar trends in both SWAP 174 and AIA 171 channels. We observe that bright points are seen in EUV channels corresponding to a magnetic-flux of the order of $10^{18}$ Mx. We find that there exists a good correlation between total emission from the bright point in several UV\todash EUV channels and total unsigned photospheric magnetic flux above certain thresholds. The bright points also show periodic brightenings and we have attempted to find the oscillation periods in bright points and their connection to magnetic flux changes. The observed periods are generally long (10\todash 25 minutes) and there is an indication that the intensity oscillations may be generated by repeated magnetic reconnection

Revealing uncertainty in the status of biodiversity change

Biodiversity faces unprecedented threats from rapid global change1. Signals of biodiversity change come from time-series abundance datasets for thousands of species over large geographic and temporal scales. Analyses of these biodiversity datasets have pointed to varied trends in abundance, including increases and decreases. However, these analyses have not fully accounted for spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures in the data. Here, using a new statistical framework, we show across ten high-profile biodiversity datasets2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11 that increases and decreases under existing approaches vanish once spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures are accounted for. This is a consequence of existing approaches severely underestimating trend uncertainty and sometimes misestimating the trend direction. Under our revised average abundance trends that appropriately recognize uncertainty, we failed to observe a single increasing or decreasing trend at 95% credible intervals in our ten datasets. This emphasizes how little is known about biodiversity change across vast spatial and taxonomic scales. Despite this uncertainty at vast scales, we reveal improved local-scale prediction accuracy by accounting for spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures. Improved prediction offers hope of estimating biodiversity change at policy-relevant scales, guiding adaptive conservation responses

Associations of body size with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in healthy older adults

In the general population, body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference are recognized risk factors for several chronic diseases and all-cause mortality. However, whether these associations are the same for older adults is less clear. The association of baseline BMI and waist circumference with all-cause and cause-specific mortality was investigated in 18,209 Australian and US participants (mean age: 75.1 ± 4.5 years) from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study, followed up for a median of 6.9 years (IQR: 5.7, 8.0). There were substantially different relationships observed in men and women. In men, the lowest risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was observed with a BMI in the range 25.0–29.9 kg/m2 [HR25-29.9 vs 21–24.9 kg/m2: 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73–1.00] while the highest risk was in those who were underweight [HRBMI <21 kg/m2 vs BMI 21–24.9 kg/m2: 1.82; 95% CI 1.30–2.55], leading to a clear U-shaped relationship. In women, all-cause mortality was highest in those with the lowest BMI leading to a J-shaped relationship (HRBMI <21 kg/m2 vs BMI 21–24.9 kg/m2: 1.64; 95% CI 1.26–2.14). Waist circumference showed a weaker relationship with all-cause mortality in both men and women. There was little evidence of a relationship between either index of body size and subsequent cancer mortality in men or women, while non-cardiovascular non-cancer mortality was higher in underweight participants. For older men, being overweight was found to be associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality, while among both men and women, a BMI in the underweight category was associated with a higher risk. Waist circumference alone had little association with all-cause or cause-specific mortality risk. Trial registration ASPREE https://ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT01038583.Prudence R. Carr, Katherine L. Webb, Johannes T. Neumann, Le T. P. Thao, Lawrence J. Beilin, Michael E. Ernst, Bernadette Fitzgibbon, Danijela Gasevic, Mark R. Nelson, Anne B. Newman, Suzanne G. Orchard, Alice Owen, Christopher M. Reid, Nigel P. Stocks, Andrew M. Tonkin, Robyn L. Woods, John J. McNei

Partonic flow and ϕ\phi-meson production in Au+Au collisions at sNN\sqrt{s_{NN}} = 200 GeV

We present first measurements of the $\phi$-meson elliptic flow ($v_{2}(p_{T})$) and high statistics $p_{T}$ distributions for different centralities from $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV Au+Au collisions at RHIC. In minimum bias collisions the $v_{2}$ of the $\phi$ meson is consistent with the trend observed for mesons. The ratio of the yields of the $\Omega$ to those of the $\phi$ as a function of transverse momentum is consistent with a model based on the recombination of thermal $s$ quarks up to $p_{T}\sim 4$ GeV/$c$, but disagrees at higher momenta. The nuclear modification factor ($R_{CP}$) of $\phi$ follows the trend observed in the $K^{0}_{S}$ mesons rather than in $\Lambda$ baryons, supporting baryon-meson scaling. Since $\phi$-mesons are made via coalescence of seemingly thermalized $s$ quarks in central Au+Au collisions, the observations imply hot and dense matter with partonic collectivity has been formed at RHIC.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, submit to PR

Plasma Wakefield Acceleration with a Modulated Proton Bunch

The plasma wakefield amplitudes which could be achieved via the modulation of a long proton bunch are investigated. We find that in the limit of long bunches compared to the plasma wavelength, the strength of the accelerating fields is directly proportional to the number of particles in the drive bunch and inversely proportional to the square of the transverse bunch size. The scaling laws were tested and verified in detailed simulations using parameters of existing proton accelerators, and large electric fields were achieved, reaching 1 GV/m for LHC bunches. Energy gains for test electrons beyond 6 TeV were found in this case.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figure

The energy dependence of ptp_t angular correlations inferred from mean-ptp_{t} fluctuation scale dependence in heavy ion collisions at the SPS and RHIC

We present the first study of the energy dependence of $p_t$ angular correlations inferred from event-wise mean transverse momentum fluctuations in heavy ion collisions. We compare our large-acceptance measurements at CM energies $\sqrt{s_{NN}} =$ 19.6, 62.4, 130 and 200 GeV to SPS measurements at 12.3 and 17.3 GeV. $p_t$ angular correlation structure suggests that the principal source of $p_t$ correlations and fluctuations is minijets (minimum-bias parton fragments). We observe a dramatic increase in correlations and fluctuations from SPS to RHIC energies, increasing linearly with $\ln \sqrt{s_{NN}}$ from the onset of observable jet-related fluctuations near 10 GeV.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure

Measurement of Transverse Single-Spin Asymmetries for Di-Jet Production in Proton-Proton Collisions at s=200\sqrt{s} = 200 GeV

We report the first measurement of the opening angle distribution between pairs of jets produced in high-energy collisions of transversely polarized protons. The measurement probes (Sivers) correlations between the transverse spin orientation of a proton and the transverse momentum directions of its partons. With both beams polarized, the wide pseudorapidity ($-1 \leq \eta \leq +2$) coverage for jets permits separation of Sivers functions for the valence and sea regions. The resulting asymmetries are all consistent with zero and considerably smaller than Sivers effects observed in semi-inclusive deep inelastic scattering (SIDIS). We discuss theoretical attempts to reconcile the new results with the sizable transverse spin effects seen in SIDIS and forward hadron production in pp collisions.Comment: 6 pages total, 1 Latex file, 3 PS files with figure