Predicting Securities Fraud Settlements and Amounts: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model of Federal Securities Class Action Lawsuits

This paper develops models that predict the incidence and amount of settlements for federal class action securities fraud litigation in the post-PLSRA period. We build hierarchical Bayesian models using data which comes principally from Risk metrics and identify several important predictors of settlement incidence (e.g., the number of different types of securities associated with a case, the company return during the class period) and settlement amount (e.g., market capitalization, measures of newsworthiness). Our models allow us to estimate how the circuit court a case is filed in as well as the industry of the plaintiff firm associate with settlement outcomes. They also allow us to accurately assess the variance of individual case outcomes revealing substantial amounts of heterogeneity in variance across cases

Achieving fruit, juice, and vegetable recipe preparation goals influences consumption by 4th grade students

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Including children in food preparation activities has long been recommended as a method to encourage children's consumption, but has not been evaluated. Goal setting is also a common component of behavior change programs. This study assessed the impact of attaining goals to prepare fruit-juice or vegetable recipes on student fruit and vegetable consumption as part of a 10-week fruit and vegetable intervention for fourth grade students.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>At six of the 10 sessions, students (n = 671) selected a fruit-juice or vegetable recipe to prepare at home before the next session. Students returned parent-signed notes reporting their child's goal attainment. Baseline and post consumption were assessed with up to four days of dietary recalls. Analyses included regression models predicting post consumption from the number of fruit-juice or vegetable recipe preparation goals attained, controlling for baseline consumption.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In general, girls and Hispanic students achieved the most recipe preparation goals. For students with highest baseline fruit-juice consumption, post fruit-juice consumption was higher by about 1.0 serving for those achieving 2 or 3 fruit-juice recipe preparation goals. Post vegetable consumption was highest for students reporting the highest baseline vegetable consumption and who achieved two or three vegetable recipe preparation goals. In general, recipe goal setting was a useful procedure primarily for those with high baseline consumption.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This is one of the first reports demonstrating that home recipe preparation was correlated with dietary change among children.</p

Predicting Securities Fraud Settlements and Amounts: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model of Federal Securities Class Action Lawsuitsj els_1260 482..510

This article develops models that predict the incidence and amount of settlements for federal class action securities fraud litigation in the post-PLSRA period. We build hierarchical Bayesian models using data that come principally from Riskmetrics and identify several important predictors of settlement incidence (e.g., the number of different types of securities associated with a case, the company return during the class period) and settlement amount (e.g., market capitalization, measures of newsworthiness). Our models also allow us to estimate how the circuit court a case is filed in as well as the industry of the plaintiff firm associate with settlement outcomes. Finally, they allow us to accurately assess the variance of individual case outcomes revealing substantial amounts of heterogeneity in variance across cases

Development of Models to Simulate Tracer Tests for Characterization of Enhanced Geothermal Systems

A recent report found that power and heat produced from enhanced (or engineered) geothermal systems (EGSs) could have a major impact on the U.S energy production capability while having a minimal impact on the environment. EGS resources differ from high-grade hydrothermal resources in that they lack sufficient temperature distribution, permeability/porosity, fluid saturation, or recharge of reservoir fluids. Therefore, quantitative characterization of temperature distributions and the surface area available for heat transfer in EGS is necessary for the design and commercial development of the geothermal energy of a potential EGS site. The goal of this project is to provide integrated tracer and tracer interpretation tools to facilitate this characterization. This project was initially focused on tracer development with the application of perfluorinated tracer (PFT) compounds, non-reactive tracers used in numerous applications from atmospheric transport to underground leak detection, to geothermal systems, and evaluation of encapsulated PFTs that would release tracers at targeted reservoir temperatures. After the 2011 midyear review and subsequent discussions with the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technology Program (GTP), emphasis was shifted to interpretive tool development, testing, and validation. Subsurface modeling capabilities are an important component of this project for both the design of suitable tracers and the interpretation of data from in situ tracer tests, be they single- or multi-well tests. The purpose of this report is to describe the results of the tracer and model development for simulating and conducting tracer tests for characterizing EGS parameters

Swimming using surface acoustic waves

Microactuation of free standing objects in fluids is currently dominated by the rotary propeller, giving rise to a range of potential applications in the military, aeronautic and biomedical fields. Previously, surface acoustic waves (SAWs) have been shown to be of increasing interest in the field of microfluidics, where the refraction of a SAW into a drop of fluid creates a convective flow, a phenomenon generally known as SAW streaming. We now show how SAWs, generated at microelectronic devices, can be used as an efficient method of propulsion actuated by localised fluid streaming. The direction of the force arising from such streaming is optimal when the devices are maintained at the Rayleigh angle. The technique provides propulsion without any moving parts, and, due to the inherent design of the SAW transducer, enables simple control of the direction of travel

Accurate dust temperature determination in a z = 7.13 galaxy

We report ALMA Band 9 continuum observations of the normal, dusty star-forming galaxy A1689-zD1 at z = 7.13, resulting in a ∼4.6 σ detection at 702 GHz. For the first time, these observations probe the far-infrared spectrum shortward of the emission peak of a galaxy in the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). Together with ancillary data from earlier works, we derive the dust temperature, Td, and mass, Md, of A1689-zD1 using both traditional modified blackbody spectral energy density fitting, and a new method that relies only on the [C ii] 158 μm line and underlying continuum data. The two methods give Td = (42+13-7, 40+13-) K, and Md} = (1.7+1.3-0.7, 2.0+1.8-1.0), 7, 107, M⊙. Band 9 observations improve the accuracy of the dust temperature (mass) estimate by ∼50 per cent (6 times). The derived temperatures confirm the reported increasing Td-redshift trend between z = 0 and 8; the dust mass is consistent with a supernova origin. Although A1689-zD1 is a normal UV-selected galaxy, our results, implying that ∼85 per cent of its star-formation rate is obscured, underline the non-negligible effects of dust in EoR galaxies

Attenuation of visual evoked responses to hand and saccade-initiated flashes

Sensory attenuation refers to reduced brain responses to self-initiated sensations relative to those produced by the external world. It is a low-level process that may be linked to higher-level cognitive tasks such as reality monitoring. The phenomenon is often explained by prediction error mechanisms of universal applicability to sensory modality; however, it is most widely reported for auditory stimuli resulting from self-initiated hand movements. The present series of event-related potential (ERP) experiments explored the generalizability of sensory attenuation to the visual domain by exposing participants to flashes initiated by either their own button press or volitional saccade and comparing these conditions to identical, computer-initiated stimuli. The key results showed that the largest reduction of anterior visual N1 amplitude occurred for saccade-initiated flashes, while button press-initiated flashes evoked an intermediary response between the saccade-initiated and externally initiated conditions. This indicates that sensory attenuation occurs for visual stimuli and suggests that the degree of electrophysiological attenuation may relate to the causal likelihood of pairings between the type of motor action and the modality of its sensory response

Self efficacy for fruit, vegetable and water intakes: Expanded and abbreviated scales from item response modeling analyses

Objective To improve an existing measure of fruit and vegetable intake self efficacy by including items that varied on levels of difficulty, and testing a corresponding measure of water intake self efficacy. Design Cross sectional assessment. Items were modified to have easy, moderate and difficult levels of self efficacy. Classical test theory and item response modeling were applied. Setting One middle school at each of seven participating sites (Houston TX, Irvine CA, Philadelphia PA, Pittsburg PA, Portland OR, rural NC, and San Antonio TX). Subjects 714 6th grade students. Results Adding items to reflect level (low, medium, high) of self efficacy for fruit and vegetable intake achieved scale reliability and validity comparable to existing scales, but the distribution of items across the latent variable did not improve. Selecting items from among clusters of items at similar levels of difficulty along the latent variable resulted in an abbreviated scale with psychometric characteristics comparable to the full scale, except for reliability. Conclusions The abbreviated scale can reduce participant burden. Additional research is necessary to generate items that better distribute across the latent variable. Additional items may need to tap confidence in overcoming more diverse barriers to dietary intake

Dynamics of Outgassing and Plume Transport Revealed by Proximal Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) Measurements at Volcán Villarrica, Chile

Volcanic gas emissions are intimately linked to the dynamics of magma ascent and outgassing, and, on geological timescales, constitute an important source of volatiles to the Earth’s atmosphere. Measurements of gas composition and flux are therefore critical to both volcano monitoring and to determining the contribution of volcanoes to global geochemical cycles. However, significant gaps remain in our global inventories of volcanic emissions, (particularly for CO2, which requires proximal sampling of a concentrated plume) for those volcanoes where the near-vent region is hazardous or inaccessible. Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) provide a robust and effective solution to proximal sampling of dense volcanic plumes in extreme volcanic environments. Here, we present gas compositional data acquired using a gas sensor payload aboard a UAS flown at Volcán Villarrica, Chile. We compare UAS-derived gas timeseries to simultaneous crater rim multi-GAS data and UV camera imagery to investigate early plume evolution. SO2 concentrations measured in the young proximal plume exhibit periodic variations that are well-correlated with the concentrations of other species. By combining molar gas ratios (CO2/SO2 = 1.48–1.68, H2O/SO2 = 67–75 and H2O/CO2 = 45–51) with the SO2 flux (142 ± 17 t/day) from UV camera images, we derive CO2 and H2O fluxes of ~150 t/day and ~2850 t/day, respectively. We observe good agreement between time-averaged molar gas ratios obtained from simultaneous UAS- and ground-based Multi-GAS acquisitions. However, the UAS measurements made in the young, less diluted plume reveal additional short-term periodic structure that reflects active degassing through discrete, audible gas exhalations.Alfred P. Sloan Foundation; Leverhulme Trus