Design of Experiments for Screening

The aim of this paper is to review methods of designing screening experiments, ranging from designs originally developed for physical experiments to those especially tailored to experiments on numerical models. The strengths and weaknesses of the various designs for screening variables in numerical models are discussed. First, classes of factorial designs for experiments to estimate main effects and interactions through a linear statistical model are described, specifically regular and nonregular fractional factorial designs, supersaturated designs and systematic fractional replicate designs. Generic issues of aliasing, bias and cancellation of factorial effects are discussed. Second, group screening experiments are considered including factorial group screening and sequential bifurcation. Third, random sampling plans are discussed including Latin hypercube sampling and sampling plans to estimate elementary effects. Fourth, a variety of modelling methods commonly employed with screening designs are briefly described. Finally, a novel study demonstrates six screening methods on two frequently-used exemplars, and their performances are compared

Early recognition of coeliac disease through community pharmacies: A proof of concept study

Setting: 15 community pharmacies in the UK Objective: Proof of concept study to test the use of community pharmacies for active case finding of patients with coeliac disease. Method: Customers accessing over-the counter and prescription medicines indicated in the treatment of possible symptoms of coeliac disease over a six month period were offered a free point of care test. All patients were given advice regarding the test results and those who tested positive were advised to make an appointment with their general practitioner. Patients and pharmacists involved in service provision were asked to complete a satisfaction survey. Pharmacists were additionally invited to undertake interviews to better understand their views on the service. Main outcome measures: Feasibility of service, acceptability to stakeholders and proportion testing positive for coeliac disease. Results: Of the 551 individuals tested, 52 (9.4%) tested positive. 277 (50.3%) were tested for accessing irritable bowel syndrome treatment, 142 (25.8%) due to presenting for diarrhoea. The proportion of patients testing positive with different symptoms or for different treatments were similar. Of 43 customers who returned the satisfaction survey, all would recommend the service to others, believing the community pharmacy to be a suitable location. Community pharmacists believed that it enabled them to improve relationships with their customers and that medical practices were receptive to the service. Conclusion: This proof of concept study has shown that community pharmacies using a point of care test can effectively recognise and refer patients for confirmatory coeliac disease testing with high levels of customer and service provider satisfaction

The PINE study: rationale and design of a randomised comparison of epidural injection of local anaesthetics and steroids versus care-as-usual to prevent postherpetic neuralgia in the elderly [ISRCTN32866390]

BACKGROUND: Postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) is by far the most common complication of herpes zoster (HZ) and one of the most intractable pain disorders. Since PHN is seen most often in the elderly, the number of patients with this disorder is expected to increase in our ageing society. PHN may last for months to years and has a high impact on the quality of life. The results of PHN treatment are rather disappointing. Epidural injection of local anaesthetics and steroids in the acute phase of HZ is a promising therapy for the prevention of PHN. Since randomised trials on the effectiveness of this intervention are lacking, the PINE (Prevention by epidural Injection of postherpetic Neuralgia in the Elderly) study was set up. The PINE study compares the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a single epidural injection of local anaesthetics and steroids during the acute phase of HZ with that of care-as-usual (i.e. antivirals and analgesics) in preventing PHN in elderly patients. METHODS / DESIGN: The PINE study is an open, multicenter clinical trial in which 550 elderly (age ≥ 50 yr.) patients who consult their general practitioner in the acute phase of HZ (rash < 7 days) are randomised to one of the treatment groups. The primary clinical endpoint is the presence of HZ-related pain one month after the onset of the rash. Secondary endpoints include duration and severity of pain, re-interventions aiming to treat the existing pain, side effects, quality of life, and cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSION: The PINE study is aimed to quantify the (cost-) effectiveness of a single epidural injection during the acute phase of HZ on the prevention of PHN

Financial considerations in the conduct of multi-centre randomised controlled trials: evidence from a qualitative study.

National Coordinating Centre for Research Methodology; Medical Research Council, UK Department of Health; Chief Scientist OfficeNot peer reviewedPublisher PD

Increasing recruitment to randomised trials: a review of randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND: Poor recruitment to randomised controlled trials (RCTs) is a widespread and important problem. With poor recruitment being such an important issue with respect to the conduct of randomised trials, a systematic review of controlled trials on recruitment methods was undertaken in order to identify strategies that are effective. METHODS: We searched the register of trials in Cochrane library from 1996 to end of 2004. We also searched Web of Science for 2004. Additional trials were identified from personal knowledge. Included studies had to use random allocation and participants had to be allocated to different methods of recruitment to a 'real' randomised trial. Trials that randomised participants to 'mock' trials and trials of recruitment to non-randomised studies (e.g., case control studies) were excluded. Information on the study design, intervention and control, and number of patients recruited was extracted by the 2 authors. RESULTS: We identified 14 papers describing 20 different interventions. Effective interventions included: telephone reminders; questionnaire inclusion; monetary incentives; using an 'open' rather than placebo design; and making trial materials culturally sensitive. CONCLUSION: Few trials have been undertaken to test interventions to improve trial recruitment. There is an urgent need for more RCTs of recruitment strategies

Determination of the mass of the W boson

Previous studies of the physics potential of LEP2 indicated that with the design luminosity of 500 inverse picobarn one may get a direct measurement of the mass of the W-boson with a precision in the range 30 - 50 MeV. This report presents an updated evaluation of the estimated error on the mass of the W-boson based on recent simulation work and improved theoretical input. The most efficient experimental methods which will be used are also described

Measurement of the running of the QED coupling in small-angle Bhabha scattering at LEP

Using the OPAL detector at LEP, the running of the effective QED coupling alpha(t) is measured for space-like momentum transfer from the angular distribution of small-angle Bhabha scattering. In an almost ideal QED framework, with very favourable experimental conditions, we obtain: Delta alpha(-6.07GeV^2) - Delta alpha(-1.81GeV^2) = (440 pm 58 pm 43 pm 30) X 10^-5, where the first error is statistical, the second is the experimental systematic and the third is the theoretical uncertainty. This agrees with current evaluations of alpha(t).The null hypothesis that alpha remains constant within the above interval of -t is excluded with a significance above 5sigma. Similarly, our results are inconsistent at the level of 3sigma with the hypothesis that only leptonic loops contribute to the running. This is currently the most significant direct measurment where the running alpha(t) is probed differentially within the measured t range.Comment: 43 pages, 12 figures, Submitted to Euro. Phys. J.

Estimating Trends of Population Decline in Long-Lived Marine Species in the Mediterranean Sea Based on Fishers' Perceptions

We conducted interviews of a representative sample of 106 retired fishers in Italy, Spain and Greece, asking specific questions about the trends they perceived in dolphin and shark abundances between 1940 and 1999 (in three 20 year periods) compared to the present abundance. The large marine fauna studied were not target species of the commercial fleet segment interviewed (trawl fishery). The fishers were asked to rank the perceived abundance in each period into qualitative ordinal classes based on two indicators: frequency of sightings and frequency of catches (incidental or intentional) of each taxonomic group. The statistical analysis of the survey results showed that both incidental catches and the sighting frequency of dolphins have decreased significantly over the 60+ years of the study period (except for in Greece due to the recent population increase). This shows that fishers' perceptions are in agreement with the declining population trends detected by scientists. Shark catches were also perceived to have diminished since the early 1940s for all species. Other long-lived Mediterranean marine fauna (monk seals, whales) were at very low levels in the second half of the 20th century and no quantitative data could be obtained. Our study supports the results obtained in the Mediterranean and other seas that show the rapid disappearance (over a few decades) of marine fauna. We show that appropriately designed questionnaires help provide a picture of animal abundance in the past through the valuable perceptions of fishers. This information can be used to complement scientific sources or in some cases be taken as the only information source for establishing population trends in the abundance of sensitive species

A Measurement of Rb using a Double Tagging Method

The fraction of Z to bbbar events in hadronic Z decays has been measured by the OPAL experiment using the data collected at LEP between 1992 and 1995. The Z to bbbar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices, and high momentum electrons and muons. Systematic uncertainties were reduced by measuring the b-tagging efficiency using a double tagging technique. Efficiency correlations between opposite hemispheres of an event are small, and are well understood through comparisons between real and simulated data samples. A value of Rb = 0.2178 +- 0.0011 +- 0.0013 was obtained, where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. The uncertainty on Rc, the fraction of Z to ccbar events in hadronic Z decays, is not included in the errors. The dependence on Rc is Delta(Rb)/Rb = -0.056*Delta(Rc)/Rc where Delta(Rc) is the deviation of Rc from the value 0.172 predicted by the Standard Model. The result for Rb agrees with the value of 0.2155 +- 0.0003 predicted by the Standard Model.Comment: 42 pages, LaTeX, 14 eps figures included, submitted to European Physical Journal