A Parameter Estimation Scheme for Multiscale Kalman Smoother (MKS) Algorithm Used in Precipitation Data Fusion

A new approach is presented in this paper to effectively obtain parameter estimations for the Multiscale Kalman Smoother (MKS) algorithm. This new approach has demonstrated promising potentials in deriving better data products based on data of different spatial scales and precisions. Our new approach employs a multi-objective (MO) parameter estimation scheme (called MO scheme hereafter), rather than using the conventional maximum likelihood scheme (called ML scheme) to estimate the MKS parameters. Unlike the ML scheme, the MO scheme is not simply built on strict statistical assumptions related to prediction errors and observation errors, rather, it directly associates the fused data of multiple scales with multiple objective functions in searching best parameter estimations for MKS through optimization. In the MO scheme, objective functions are defined to facilitate consistency among the fused data at multiscales and the input data at their original scales in terms of spatial patterns and magnitudes. The new approach is evaluated through a Monte Carlo experiment and a series of comparison analyses using synthetic precipitation data. Our results show that the MKS fused precipitation performs better using the MO scheme than that using the ML scheme. Particularly, improvements are significant compared to that using the ML scheme for the fused precipitation associated with fine spatial resolutions. This is mainly due to having more criteria and constraints involved in the MO scheme than those included in the ML scheme. The weakness of the original ML scheme that blindly puts more weights onto the data associated with finer resolutions is overcome in our new approach

ASSESSMENTS OF MULTISCALE PRECIPITATION DATA FUSION AND SOIL MOISTURE DATA ASSIMILATION AND THEIR ROLES IN HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTS

Precipitation is the most important input for hydrological simulations and soil moisture contents (SMCs) are the most important state variables of hydrological system. We can improve hydrological simulations by improving the quality of precipitation data and assimilating satellite-measured SMC data into land surface simulation. Multiscale data fusion is an effective approach to derive precipitation data due to the multiscale characteristics of precipitation measurements. Multiscale data assimilation is the exact approach to assimilate satellite-measured SMC data into land surface simulations when measurements and model simulations are not at the same spatial resolution. To date, no systematic assessments of these approaches have been conducted in hydrological simulations. For the purpose of improving hydrological forecast, this study assesses influences of precipitation data fusion and soil moisture data assimilation on the simulations of streamflow, SMCs and evapotranspiration over 14 watersheds selected from the Ohio River Basin. As the technical basis of this study, a large-scale flow routing scheme and a parameter calibration scheme with multiple precipitation inputs are developed for Noah LSM. A multiscale data fusion algorithm, namely Multiscale Kalman Smoother (MKS) based framework, which plays an important role in multiscale precipitation data fusion and multiscale soil moisture data assimilation, is assessed in a large experimental site with 2246 precipitation events in 2003. Three precipitation data products are derived by fusing NLDAS-2 precipitation data product and NEXRAD MPE precipitation data product with the MKS-based framework. For the assessment over the 14 watersheds in three individual years, essential improvements of hydrological simulation have been found for a half number of cases. Findings of this assessment show that precipitation data fusion is a statistically effective approach to improve hydrological simulations. To assess the influences of soil moisture data assimilation on hydrological simulation, AMSR-E SMC data are assimilated into land surface simulation by Noah LSM. Results show that soil moisture data assimilation has not improved hydrological simulations for most of cases because AMSR-E data underestimate SMC compared with model simulations. However, for those cases in which precipitation data overestimate real precipitation, the soil moisture data assimilation has been proved as an effective approach to improve hydrological simulations

Finding Action Tubes with a Sparse-to-Dense Framework

The task of spatial-temporal action detection has attracted increasing attention among researchers. Existing dominant methods solve this problem by relying on short-term information and dense serial-wise detection on each individual frames or clips. Despite their effectiveness, these methods showed inadequate use of long-term information and are prone to inefficiency. In this paper, we propose for the first time, an efficient framework that generates action tube proposals from video streams with a single forward pass in a sparse-to-dense manner. There are two key characteristics in this framework: (1) Both long-term and short-term sampled information are explicitly utilized in our spatiotemporal network, (2) A new dynamic feature sampling module (DTS) is designed to effectively approximate the tube output while keeping the system tractable. We evaluate the efficacy of our model on the UCF101-24, JHMDB-21 and UCFSports benchmark datasets, achieving promising results that are competitive to state-of-the-art methods. The proposed sparse-to-dense strategy rendered our framework about 7.6 times more efficient than the nearest competitor.Comment: 5 figures; AAAI 202

Parameter Sensitivity of the Noah-MP Land Surface Model with Dynamic Vegetation

The Noah land surface model with multiple parameterization options (Noah-MP) includes a routine for dynamic simulation of vegetation carbon assimilation and soil carbon decomposition processes. To use remote sensing observations of vegetation to constrain simulations from this model, it is necessary first to understand the sensitivity of the model to its parameters. This is required for efficient parameter estimation, which is both a valuable way to use observations and also a first or concurrent step in many state-updating data assimilation procedures. We use variance decomposition to assess the sensitivity of estimates of sensible heat, latent heat, soil moisture, and net ecosystem exchange made by certain standard Noah-MP configurations that include dynamic simulation of vegetation and carbon to forty-three primary user-specified parameters. This is done using thirty-two years' worth of data from ten international FluxNet sites. Findings indicate that there are five soil parameters and six (or more) vegetation parameters (depending on the model configuration) that act as primary controls on these states and fluxes

Evaluating ESA CCI Soil Moisture in East Africa

To assess growing season conditions where ground based observations are limited or unavailable, food security and agricultural drought monitoring analysts rely on publicly available remotely sensed rainfall and vegetation greenness. There are also remotely sensed soil moisture observations from missions like the European Space Agency (ESA) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and NASAs Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), however these time series are still too short to conduct studies that demonstrate the utility of these data for operational applications, or to provide historical context for extreme wet or dry events. To promote the use of remotely sensed soil moisture in agricultural drought and food security monitoring, we use East Africa as a case study to evaluate the quality of a 30+ year time series of merged active-passive microwave soil moisture from the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI-SM). Compared to the Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI) and modeled soil moisture products, we found substantial spatial and temporal gaps in the early part of the CCI-SM record, with adequate data coverage beginning in 1992. From this point forward, growing season CCI-SM anomalies were well correlated (R greater than 0.5) with modeled, seasonal soil moisture, and in some regions, NDVI. We use correlation analysis and qualitative comparisons at seasonal time scales to show that remotely sensed soil moisture can add information to a convergence of evidence framework that traditionally relies on rainfall and NDVI in moderately vegetated regions

Data Assimilation Enhancements to Air Force Weathers Land Information System

The United States Air Force (USAF) has a proud and storied tradition of enabling significant advancements in the area of characterizing and modeling land state information. 557th Weather Wing (557 WW; DoDs Executive Agent for Land Information) provides routine geospatial intelligence information to warfighters, planners, and decision makers at all echelons and services of the U.S. military, government and intelligence community. 557 WW and its predecessors have been home to the DoDs only operational regional and global land data analysis systems since January 1958. As a trusted partner since 2005, Air Force Weather (AFW) has relied on the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA/GSFC to lead the interagency scientific collaboration known as the Land Information System (LIS). LIS is an advanced software framework for high performance land surface modeling and data assimilation of geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) information

Snow Ensemble Uncertainty Project (SEUP): quantification of snow water equivalent uncertainty across North America via ensemble land surface modeling

The Snow Ensemble Uncertainty Project (SEUP) is an effort to establish a baseline characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) uncertainty across North America with the goal of informing global snow observational needs. An ensemble-based modeling approach, encompassing a suite of current operational models is used to assess the uncertainty in SWE and total snow storage (SWS) estimation over North America during the 2009–2017 period. The highest modeled SWE uncertainty is observed in mountainous regions, likely due to the relatively deep snow, forcing uncertainties, and variability between the different models in resolving the snow processes over complex terrain. This highlights a need for high-resolution observations in mountains to capture the high spatial SWE variability. The greatest SWS is found in Tundra regions where, even though the spatiotemporal variability in modeled SWE is low, there is considerable uncertainty in the SWS estimates due to the large areal extent over which those estimates are spread. This highlights the need for high accuracy in snow estimations across the Tundra. In midlatitude boreal forests, large uncertainties in both SWE and SWS indicate that vegetation–snow impacts are a critical area where focused improvements to modeled snow estimation efforts need to be made. Finally, the SEUP results indicate that SWE uncertainty is driving runoff uncertainty, and measurements may be beneficial in reducing uncertainty in SWE and runoff, during the melt season at high latitudes (e.g., Tundra and Taiga regions) and in the western mountain regions, whereas observations at (or near) peak SWE accumulation are more helpful over the midlatitudes