The rise of Eastern Europe and German labor market reform : dissecting their effects on employment

From the early 1990s until 2005 the unemployment rate rose in Germany from 7.3% to 11.7%. While the unemployment rate reached its peak in 2005, it decreased steadily in the following years. On the one hand, the fourth stage of the German labor market reform (Hartz IV) was implemented in 2005 with the intent to cut the unemployment rate. On the other hand, the productivities in Germany and Eastern Europe grew strongly during the same period, enhancing the joint trade. The rise of the East, in terms of rising trade, is likely to have had an ambiguous effect on the German labor market. This paper investigates the employment effects of the Hartz IV-Reform. Further, it concentrates on the labor market effects of the German and Eastern European productivity shock. The focus lies on the national and county level (including 402 counties). As the effects on regional labor markets differ and take time, the paper builds on the dynamic and spatial trade model of Caliendo et al. (2019). I find that the Hartz IV-Reform and the German productivity contributes positively to the decline of unemployment, whereas the increase in Eastern European productivity is only responsible for a minor increase in unemployment

Applied policy research through the lens of new quantitative trade models

This cumulative dissertation consists of four essays focusing on the applied policy research in international trade. I conduct policy research on current and relevant trade subjects using state-of-the-art quantitative trade models. In the first two essays I analyze the impact of potential trade policies before they are implemented (ex-ante), while in the two later essays I examine policy issues and their effects after they were implemented (ex-post). The first essay is dedicated to the exploration of the trade and welfare effects of a potential free trade agreement (FTA) between the United States and Japan. Examining the effects of this bilateral FTA is of economic relevance as Japan is the largest trading partner for the United States without an established FTA. Based on the new quantitative trade model of Caliendo and Parro (2015) I consider various trade policy scenarios of such a potential FTA. In my counterfactual analysis I focus on the decrease of tariffs as well as on the reduction of different levels of non-tariff barriers. My findings indicate that the largest trade effects are driven by the reduction of non-tariff barriers. Furthermore, I compare the impact of a bilateral Deep FTA with the impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The results show that the United States would prefer joining TPP; Japan would benefit the most of a Deep FTA. The second essay of my dissertation project concentrates on the abolition of import tariffs in the automotive sector between the EU and the United States. To study the potential policy implications of the so-called Zero Tariff Solution, this essay applies the Caliendo and Parro (2015) framework and the empirical approach of the first essay. Hereby, several possible trade policy scenarios are analyzed. The key result clearly shows that the highest welfare gains would be achieved by the grand solution where the EU and the United States reduce the automotive tariffs for all WTO countries. At the heart of the third essay lies the question about the underlying reasons for the steady decline of unemployment in Germany since the peak in 2005. In particular, I dissect the employment effect of the rise of the East (rise in trade between Germany and Eastern Europe) and that of the fourth stage of the German labor market reform (Hartz IV"). By extending the Caliendo et al. (2019) dynamic trade model I can show that the Hartz IV" reform decreases the short-term unemployment by 0.4 percent. I examine the productivity growth of Germany and Eastern Europe as potential drivers for the increased trade. I discover that the German productivity growth leads to a decrease in short-term unemployment, whereas the productivity growth in Eastern Europe enhances the German short-term unemployment slightly. Thus, the overall effect of the rise of the East driven by the productivity growth of Germany and Eastern Europe contributed to a slight decrease in German short-term unemployment. The fourth essay investigates social welfare in Germany while taking income inequality into account. The essay consists of two parts: In the first part (closed economy setting) we study the welfare effects of the German Tax-Reform 2000, the largest tax reform of the last decades. In the second part (open economy setting) we concentrate on the social welfare effects of the trade liberalization in Germany between 1995 and 2014. We apply the Antràs et al. (2017) approach which considers income inequality when focusing on social welfare. The results demonstrate that the Tax-Reform 2000 contribute to a minor average annual social welfare growth. However, this additional social welfare growth strongly varies with the social planers inequality aversion. Additionally, we identify the optimal tax-progressivity for each year of the period. Furthermore, when studying the trade liberalization, we find support that a counterfactual move of the German economy of the year 2014 to the trade openness of 1995 would severely reduce the social welfare.Diese kumulative Dissertation setzt sich aus vier Aufsätzen zusammen und untersucht aktuelle Handelsthemen mit modernsten quantitativen Methoden. Die ersten beiden Aufsätze analysieren die Auswirkungen potenzieller Handelspolitiken vor einer möglichen Realisierung (Ex-ante), während die beiden darauf folgenden Aufsätze Handelspolitiken nach ihrer Umsetzung (Ex-post) unter die Lupe nehmen. Der erste Aufsatz befasst sich mit der Untersuchung der Handels- und Wohlfahrtseffekte eines potenziellen Freihandelsabkommens (FTA) zwischen den USA und Japan. Die Untersuchung dieses bilateralen Freihandelsabkommens ist von wirtschaftlicher Relevanz, da Japan der größte Handelspartner für die USA ohne ein etabliertes Freihandelsabkommen ist. In diesem Aufsatz betrachte ich basierend auf dem Handelsmodell von Caliendo und Parro (2015) verschiedene handelspolitische Szenarien. Dabei konzentriert sich meine Analyse auf die Auswirkungen des Abbaus von Zöllen sowie auf den Abbau unterschiedlicher nichttarifärer Handelshemmnisse. Meine Ergebnisse machen deutlich, dass die größten Handelseffekte auf den Abbau nichttarifärer Handelshemmnisse zurückzuführen sind. In dem Aufsatz vergleiche ich weiter die Auswirkungen eines tiefen bilateralen Freihandelsabkommens Deep FTA mit den Auswirkungen der Transpazifischen Partnerschaft (TPP). Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die USA TPP bevorzugen würden, während Japan am meisten von einem Deep FTA profitieren würde. Der zweite Aufsatz befasst sich mit der Eliminierung von Einfuhrzöllen im Automobilsektor zwischen der EU und den USA. Um die politischen Implikationen dieser Nulllösung zu untersuchen, wenden wir die analytische Vorgehensweise des ersten Aufsatzes an. Hierbei betrachten wir mehrere handelspolitische Szenarien der möglichen Nulllösung. Eines der zentralen Ergebnisse ist es, dass die Grand Solution (EU und USA eliminieren die Autozölle für alle WTO-Länder) die höchsten Wohlfahrtsgewinne erzeugen würde. Im Zentrum des dritten Aufsatzes steht die Frage nach den Gründen für den stetigen Rückgang der Arbeitslosigkeit in Deutschland seit 2005. Durch die Erweiterung des dynamischen Handelsmodells von Caliendo et al. (2019) analysiere ich die Beschäftigungseffekte der Arbeitsmarktreform (Hartz IV) und dem rise of the East (Zunahme der Handelsströme zwischen Deutschland und Osteuropa), die zu dieser Zeit stattfanden. Insbesondere untersuche ich das Produktivitätswachstum in Deutschland und Osteuropa als potenzielle Treiber für die gestiegenen Handelsströme und deren Auswirkungen auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt. Meine Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der rise of the East zur Reduktion der Kurzzeitarbeitslosigkeit beitrug, hervorgerufen durch das Produktivitätswachstum in Deutschland. Weiter veranschaulichen meine Ergebnisse, dass die Hartz IV-Reform die Kurzzeitarbeitslosigkeit um 0.4 Prozente senkte. Nach dem Model von Antràs et al. (2017) untersuchen wir in dem vierten Aufsatz die Wohlfahrtseffekte in Deutschland unter Berücksichtigung der Einkommensungleichheit. Der Aufsatz besteht aus zwei Teilen: Im ersten Teil steht die Untersuchung der Wohlfahrtseffekte der Steuerreform 2000 im Mittelpunkt (Fokus: Geschlossene Volkswirtschaft). Der zweite Teil konzentrieret sich auf die Wohlfahrtseffekte der Handelsliberalisierung zwischen 1995 und 2014 in Deutschland (Fokus: Offene Volkswirtschaft). Die Ergebnisse veranschaulichen, dass die "Steuerreform 2000" zu einem jährlichen Wachstum der sozialen Wohlfahrt von zusätzlichen 0.07 Prozent beiträgt. Dieser zusätzliche Wohlfahrtszuwachs variiert jedoch mit der Ungleichheitsaversion des sozialen Planers. Darüber hinaus identifizieren wir die optimale Steuerprogressivität für unterschiedliche Grade der Ungleichheitsaversion des sozialen Planers. Im Rahmen der offenen Volkswirtschaft zeigen wir, dass sich die soziale Wohlfahrt stark reduzieren würde, wenn die deutsche Wirtschaft des Jahres 2014 die höheren Handelskosten von 1995 hätte

Formalizing the Future: How Central Banks Set Out to Govern Expectations but Ended Up (En-)Trapped in Indicators

Modern ‘inflation targeting’ monetary policy has been one of the prototypes of future-oriented modes of social coordination which in recent years have captured the sociological imagination. Modern central banking is commonly presented as achieving greater efficacy by directly managing economic expectations, in particular when contrasted with the previous heavy-handed, “hydraulic” transmission of policy objectives through systems of economic aggregates. Such empirical claims are mirrored in the theoretical distinction drawn by sociologists between the openness and efficacy of future-oriented coordination of expectations, and the more rigid coordination achieved through formal organizing and formalization. This paper uses the case of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) transition to inflation targeting in the 1980s to show how the precision and flexibility of social coordination through expectations in fact relies on extensive formalization and rigid proceduralization. I show that the tightly coupled control relation on which inflation targeting rests is not possible without the constitutive exclusion of other modes of representing and intervening the economy achieved by this formalization. However, the price for the robust and precise reactivity that modern central banking has constructed between key indicators of inflation expectations and the interest rate set by monetary policy is a comprehensive procedural dis-embedding of monetary policy from the structure of economic activities whose path into the future it is meant to govern. The paper concludes that in order to better understand the conditions under which future-oriented modes of coordination fail or succeed, we need to study more closely the formalization of social relations on which they are founded

Ökonomisches versus gesellschaftliches Wertesystem im Land- und Immobilienmanagement: zwei Seiten der gleichen Medaille?

This article reviews and analyses how and why land-management practice draws on two contrasting value systems: economic and social. Land managers are at the crossroads of different value systems, which both overlap and contrast. The aim of this article is to provide an understanding of which aspects are crucial in each of the value systems, and to provide a basis for how and where the value systems can be connected and where they are contradictory. This is undertaken using an exploratory qualitative and descriptive comparison, which contrasts the epistemic logics of the value systems, the manner in which each system makes use of different scales, and the way in which decisions are made with each value system. Such an understanding is crucial to improve coherence in designing and predicting the future effects of land-management interventions. Currently, practitioners tend to design interventions based on single value systems, rather than on combining or integrating value systems. The discursive comparison provides the initial steps towards a more coherent understanding of the common ground and the missing links in value logics applied in land management. These results are relevant to provide better descriptions and predictions of the effects of land-use interventions and develop improved transdisciplinary models to predict changes and development in the utilization of land or property.Dieser Beitrag untersucht und analysiert, wie und warum für die Praxis des Landmanagements zwei gegensätzliche Wertesysteme von Bedeutung sind: ein wirtschaftliches und ein gesellschaftliches System. Landmanager stehen am Scheideweg dieser Wertesysteme, die sich zum Teil überschneiden und zum Teil kontrastieren. Ziel dieses Beitrags ist es, ein Verständnis dafür zu entwickeln, welche Aspekte in welchen Wertesystemen entscheidend sind, wie und wo die Wertesysteme miteinander verbunden sind und wo sie widersprüchlich sind. Dies geschieht durch einen qualitativen und deskriptiven Vergleich, der die jeweiligen epistemischen Wertesystemlogiken einander gegenüberstellt: die Art und Weise, in der jedes System unterschiedliche Maßstäbe anwendet, und die Art, in der Entscheidungen mit jedem Wertesystem vorbereitet werden. Ein solches Verständnis ist entscheidend, um die Kohärenz bei der Planung und Vorhersage zukünftiger Auswirkungen von Landmanagementmaßnahmen zu verbessern. Derzeit tendieren die Praktiker dazu, Interventionen nach Ein-Werte-Systemen zu beurteilen anstatt Wertesysteme zu kombinieren oder integrieren. Der Vergleich liefert erste Bausteine zu einem kohärenten Verständnis der Gemeinsamkeiten und der fehlenden Glieder in der Wertelogik, die im Landmanagement angewendet wird. Diese Ergebnisse sind relevant, um die Auswirkungen von Landnutzungsinterventionen besser beschreiben und prognostizieren zu können sowie um transdisziplinäre Modelle zu entwickeln, die Veränderungen und Prozesse bei der Nutzung von Boden oder Gebäuden vorhersehen

The road (not) taken?: How the indexicality of practice could make or break the ‘New Constructivism’

The ‘turn to practice’ has become a methodological keystone for the project of a ‘New’ Constructivism within IR. This project aims to use the observable level of everyday, practical activities as a prism for making empirically tractable the processes of world-making which constitute international order. In making the logic of practice the starting point for substantive theorizing, this New Constructivism seeks to provide a methodological platform for more empirically grounded, analytically open conceptions of international order. More ‘experience-near’ modes of inquiry would thus allow us to come to terms with the increasingly heterogeneous and unruly nature of the International, and help avert further fissuring of an already divided discipline. While sharing the view that more experience-near modes of inquiry promise much in this regard, this paper argues that the New Constructivism is in danger of going down a methodological blind alley that severely undermines its ability to achieve its objectives. It shows that the one-sided, meta-theoretically motivated emphasis on the (alleged) direct observability of practice orders in their natural contexts severely stunts our ability to make their logic explicit in concrete empirical analyses. To highlight these dangers, the paper provides a close analysis of the methodological implications of the indexicality of meaning (its dependence on ‘socially organized occasions of its use’). It closely examines how recent applied practice-theoretical work in IR is handicapped by a deeply engrained misconception of indexicality. This shows that we need to accept reflexivity as a necessary ingredient for interpretation, and thus for making explicit the practical logics that constitute the International

Trade and welfare effects of a potential free trade agreementbetween Japan and the United States

This paper deals with the trade and welfare effects of a potential bilateral trade agreement between the US and Japan. A possible agreement is currently being discussed between Washington and Tokyo, although, there is also the alternative for the US government joining Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Based on the theoretical model of Caliendo and Parro (2015) I analyse the welfare gains of such a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) in the style of Aichele et al. (2014). In particular, I simulate three scenarios with different levels of integration: The reduction of tariffs only, the scenario of a shallow FTA, and a deep FTA. In addition, the paper compares the trade and welfare changes of a deep FTA to the welfare effects of TPP. The findings are that Japan has the highest welfare gains with a FTA (0.085%), whilst the United States benefits the most from TPP with a welfare gain of 0.05%

Estimation of Linear and Non-Linear Indicators using Interval Censored Income Data

Among a variety of small area estimation methods, one popular approach for the estimation of linear and non-linear indicators is the empirical best predictor. However, parameter estimation using standard maximum likelihood methods is not possible, when the dependent variable of the underlying nested error regression model, is censored to specific intervals. This is often the case for income variables. Therefore, this work proposes an estimation method, which enables the estimation of the regression parameters of the nested error regression model using interval censored data. The introduced method is based on the stochastic expectation maximization algorithm. Since the stochastic expectation maximization method relies on the Gaussian assumptions of the error terms, transformations are incorporated into the algorithm to handle departures from normality. The estimation of the mean squared error of the empirical best predictors is facilitated by a parametric bootstrap which captures the additional uncertainty coming from the interval censored dependent variable. The validity of the proposed method is validated by extensive model-based simulations

Toxicant distributions and impact models in environmental risk analysis of waste sites

Myrkyllisten aineiden jakaumat ja vaikutusmallit jätealueiden ympäristöriskien analyysissä

Urban Greening for New Capital Cities. A Meta Review

In light of the discussions on relocating the capital city of Indonesia to a new location in Kalimantan, and create a new green capital city (referred to as IKN), the purpose of this meta-review paper is learn from experiences from other relocations of capital cities and creations of green cities in the world. Specific emphasis is hereby given to urban greening and gentrification. This article applies a meta-analytical approach by connecting the basic tenets of the 8R framework of responsible land management to assess the pros and cons of a selected set of capital city relocations and green cities. From the comparison, it is possible to generate general recommendations for Indonesia's new green capital city. The comparison reveals that each of the selected cases falls short in one or more aspects of the 8R framework. In all cases, constructing green capitals requires a mixed and integrated land use planning, a transparent regulatory framework toward land use control, extensive consultation with both local, national and international stakeholders, and participation with local residents. Only under these conditions, one can ensure ownership, respect and trust in the decision. The quandaries highlight the complexity of capital city relocation and green city creation. The originality lies in the specific land management framework perspective and discursive analysis of documented discourses on constructing new capital and green cities. This provides new options for devising and extending regulatory guidelines and for assigning responsibilities for such new mega-endeavors. Given the conceptual and discursive character of the paper, a limitation of the approach may be that there are no specific empirical data collected, yet several recommendations for further research include expanding the boundary work between the land management, the spatial planning and governance domains

The Assault of Financial Futures on the Rest of Time

The question we ask in this chapter is how financialised capitalism shapes and formats the politics of the future. Our central tenet is that, far from providing an engine for imagining futures that guides collective actions, finance makes use of forecasts, plans or visions of the future to fuel coordination processes and interactions in the present. While the oscillation between ‘present futures’ and ‘future presents’ has been identified as a defining feature of modern conceptions of contingency, freedom and choice, contemporary financial markets appropriate possible future states for a different purpose: projected futures are calculatedly reduced to arbitrage opportunities, rather than for shaping durable ‘imagined futures’. We show that this ‘assault on future presents’ was an important factor in the run-up to the financial crisis of 2007–2009. Central banks deliberately attempted to eliminate uncertainties in markets, with shared fictions about the underlying logics of Western economies (real interest rates, inflation levels, etc.) rigidly built into the structures of asset prices. Market actors could then arbitrage among present prices without any concern to possible substantive discontinuities with, and thus uncertainty of, the future. Fatally, central banks have been at the forefront of such ‘synchronistic’ finance, believing that, as long as numeric calibration of their own and the markets’ expectations align, they have rendered capitalism governable