Evaluating a three-dimensional panel of point forecasts : the Bank of England survey of external forecasters

This article provides a first analysis of the forecasts of inflation and GDP growth obtained from the Bank of England's Survey of External Forecasters, considering both the survey average forecasts published in the quarterly Inflation Report, and the individual survey responses, recently made available by the Bank. These comprise a conventional incomplete panel dataset, with an additional dimension arising from the collection of forecasts at several horizons; both point forecasts and density forecasts are collected. The inflation forecasts show good performance in tests of unbiasedness and efficiency, albeit over a relatively calm period for the UK economy, and there is considerable individual heterogeneity. For GDP growth, inaccurate real-time data and their subsequent revisions are seen to cause serious difficulties for forecast construction and evaluation, although the forecasts are again unbiased. There is evidence that some forecasters have asymmetric loss functions

Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters

This article introduces a new source of survey data, namely the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. The survey collects point and density forecasts of inflation and GDP growth, and hence offers the opportunity of constructing direct measures of uncertainty. We present a simple statistical framework in which to define and interrelate measures of uncertainty and disagreement. The resulting measures are compared with other direct measures of uncertainty, nationally and internationally. A significant, sustained reduction in inflation uncertainty followed the 1997 granting of operational independence to the Bank of England to pursue a monetary policy of inflation targeting

The properties of some goodness-of-fit tests

The properties of Pearson’s goodness-of-fit test, as used in density forecast evaluation, income distribution analysis and elsewhere, are analysed. The components-of-chi-squared or “Pearson analog” tests of Anderson (1994) are shown to be less generally applicable than was originally claimed. For the case of equiprobable classes, where the general components tests remain valid, a Monte Carlo study shows that tests directed towards skewness and kurtosis may have low power, due to differences between the class boundaries and the intersection points of the distributions being compared. The power of individual component tests can be increased by the use of nonequiprobable classes

Gabapentinoid consumption in 65 countries and regions from 2008 to 2018: a longitudinal trend study

Recent studies raised concerns about the increasing use of gabapentinoids in different countries. With their potential for misuse and addiction, understanding the global consumption of gabapentinoids will offer us a platform to examine the need for any interventional policies. This longitudinal trend study utilised pharmaceutical sales data from 65 countries and regions across the world to evaluate the global trends in gabapentinoid consumption between 2008-2018. The multinational average annual percentage change of gabapentinoid consumption was +17.20%, increased from 4.17 defined daily dose per ten thousand inhabitants per day (DDD/TID) in 2008 to 18.26 DDD/TID in 2018. High-income countries had the highest pooled gabapentinoid consumption rate (39.92 DDD/TID) in 2018, which was more than six times higher than the lower-middle income countries (6.11 DDD/TID). The study shows that despite differences in healthcare system and culture, a consistent increase in gabapentinoid consumption is observed worldwide, with high-income countries remaining the largest consumers

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Macroeconomic modelling in central banks in Latin America

This paper presents an overview of current developments in macroeconomic modelling for forecasting and policy analysis in Latin America, based on material presented at a REDIMA project meeting at the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago de Chile, in September 2007. Some particular issues that arise in modeling emerging economies are described, in the context of recent developments in modeling developed economies

Revisiting Francis Galton’s forecasting competition

This note reexamines the data from a weight-judging competition described in an article by Francis Galton published in 1907. Following the correction of some errors, it is shown that this forecasting competition is an interesting precursor of two more recent developments in the statistical forecasting literature. One is forecast combination, with the mean forecast here exactly coinciding with the outcome, and the second is the use of two-piece frequency and probability distributions to describe asymmetry

Evaluating density forecasts : forecast combinations, model mixtures, calibration and sharpness

This paper reviews current density forecast evaluation procedures, and considers a proposal that such procedures be augmented by an assessment of 'sharpness'. This was motivated by an example in which some standard evaluation procedures using probability integral transforms cannot distinguish the ideal forecast from several competing forecasts. We show that this example has some unrealistic features from a time series forecasting perspective, and so provides insecure foundations for the argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. Our alternative, more realistic example shows how relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We introduce a new test of density forecast efficiency. Copyright. (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

The measurement and characteristics of professional forecasters' uncertainty

Several statistical issues that arise in the construction and interpretation of measures of uncertainty from forecast surveys that include probability questions are considered, with application to the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. Substantial heterogeneity of individual forecasters' uncertainty is found, together with significant persistence in their relative uncertainty, which is a new finding in professional forecast surveys. It is an individual characteristic akin to the individual optimism and pessimism already established in the literature on point forecasts; the latter is also found in the current dataset, now in a bivariate sense with respect to joint inflation and output growth point forecasts. Whether disagreement among point forecasts is a useful indicator of uncertainty is shown to depend on the underlying macroeconomic environment