Integrating Outcomes from Probabilistic and Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis in the Tien Shan

In this study, we have evaluated the probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard for the city of Almaty, the largest city in Kazakhstan, which has a population of nearly two million people. Almaty is located in the Tien Shan belt, a low‐strain‐rate environment within the interior of the Eurasian plate that is characterized by large infrequent earthquakes. A robust assessment of seismic hazard for Almaty is challenging because current knowledge about the occurrence of large earthquakes is limited, due to the short duration of the earthquake catalog and only partial information about the geometry, rupture behavior, slip rate, and the maximum expected earthquake magnitude of the faults in the area. The impact that this incomplete knowledge has on assessing seismic hazard in this area can be overcome using both probabilistic and deterministic approaches and integrating the results. First, we simulate ground‐shaking scenarios for three destructive historical earthquakes that occurred in the northern Tien Shan in 1887, 1889, and 1911, using ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and realistic fault‐rupture models based on recent geomorphological studies. We show that the large variability in the GMPEs results in large uncertainty in the ground‐motion simulations. Then, we estimate the seismic hazard probabilistically using a Monte Carlo‐based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the earthquake catalog compiled from the databases of the International Seismological Centre and the British Geological Survey. The results show that earthquakes of M w Mw 7.0–7.5 at Joyner–Boore distances of less than 10 km from the city pose a significant hazard to Almaty due to their proximity. These potential future earthquakes are similar to the 1887 Verny earthquake in terms of their magnitude and distance from Almaty. Unfortunately, this is the least well understood of the destructive historical earthquakes that have occurred in the northern Tien Shan

Active faulting within a megacity: the geometry and slip rate of the Pardisan thrust in central Tehran, Iran

Tehran, the capital city of Iran with a population of over 12 million, is one of the largest urban centres within the seismically active Alpine–Himalayan orogenic belt. Although several historic earthquakes have affected Tehran, their relation to individual faults is ambiguous for most. This ambiguity is partly due to a lack of knowledge about the locations, geometries and seismic potential of structures that have been obscured by dramatic urban growth over the past three decades, and which have covered most of the young geomorphic markers and natural exposures. Here we use aerial photographs from 1956, combined with an ~1 m DEM derived from stereo Pleiades satellite imagery to investigate the geomorphology of a growing anticline above a thrust fault—the Pardisan thrust—within central Tehran. The topography across the ridge is consistent with a steep ramp extending from close to the surface to a depth of ~2 km, where it presumably connects with a shallow-dipping detachment. No primary fault is visible at the surface, and it is possible that the faulting dissipates in the near surface as distributed shearing. We use optically stimulated luminescence to date remnants of uplifted and warped alluvial deposits that are offset vertically across the Pardisan fault, providing minimum uplift and slip-rates of at least 1 mm yr$^{−1}$. Our study shows that the faults within the Tehran urban region have relatively rapid rates of slip, are important in the regional tectonics, and have a great impact on earthquake hazard assessment of the city and surrounding region.Geological Survey of Iran, Christ Church College Oxford, Natural Environment Research Council, Economic and Social Research Counci

Survey of nucleon electromagnetic form factors

A dressed-quark core contribution to nucleon electromagnetic form factors is calculated. It is defined by the solution of a Poincare' covariant Faddeev equation in which dressed-quarks provide the elementary degree of freedom and correlations between them are expressed via diquarks. The nucleon-photon vertex involves a single parameter; i.e., a diquark charge radius. It is argued to be commensurate with the pion's charge radius. A comprehensive analysis and explanation of the form factors is built upon this foundation. A particular feature of the study is a separation of form factor contributions into those from different diagram types and correlation sectors, and subsequently a flavour separation for each of these. Amongst the extensive body of results that one could highlight are: r_1^{n,u}>r_1^{n,d}, owing to the presence of axial-vector quark-quark correlations; and for both the neutron and proton the ratio of Sachs electric and magnetic form factors possesses a zero.Comment: 43 pages, 17 figures, 12 tables, 5 appendice

Slip-rate on the Main Köpetdag (Kopeh Dagh) strike-slip fault, Turkmenistan, and the active tectonics of the South Caspian

We provide the first measurement of strike-slip and shortening rates across the 200-km-long right-lateral strike-slip Main Köpetdag Fault (MKDF) in Turkmenistan. Strike-slip and shortening components are accommodated on parallel structures separated by ∼10 km. Using Infra-red-stimulated luminescence and reconstruction of offset alluvial fans we find a right-lateral rate of 9.1 ± 1.3 mm/yr averaged over 100 ± 5 ka, and a shortening rate of only ∼0.3 mm/yr averaged over 35 ± 4 ka across the frontal thrust, though additional shortening is likely to be accommodated locally by folding and faulting, and regionally within the eastern Caspian lowlands to its south. The MKDF is estimated to have ∼35 km of cumulative right-lateral slip which, if these geological measurements are correct, would accumulate in only 3–5 Ma at the rate we have determined, suggesting that the present tectonic configuration started within that time period. We use the MKDF slip-rate to form a velocity triangle, from which we estimate the Iran-South Caspian and Eurasia-South Caspian shortening rates, and show that the South Caspian Basin moves at 10.4 ± 1.1 mm/yr in direction 333° ± 5 relative to Eurasia and at 4.8 ± 0.8 mm/yr in direction 236° ± 14 relative to Iran. In contrast to both the eastern Köpetdag and the Caspian lowlands the MKDF has little recent or historical seismicity. The rapid slip-rate estimated here suggests that it is a zone of high earthquake hazard

Probing the upper end of intracontinental earthquake magnitude: a prehistoric example from the Dzhungarian and Lepsy faults of Kazakhstan

The study of surface ruptures is key to understanding the earthquake occurrence of faults especially in the absence of historical events. We present a detailed analysis of geomorphic displacements along the Dzhungarian Fault, which straddles the border of China and Kazakhstan. We use digital elevation models derived from structure-from-motion analysis of Pléiades satellite imagery and drone imagery from specific field sites to measure surface offsets. We provide direct age constraints from alluvial terraces displaced by faulting and indirect dating from morphological analysis of the scarps. We find that the southern 250 km of the fault likely ruptured in a single event in the last 4,000 years, with displacements of 10–15 m, and potentially up to 20 m at one site. We infer that this Dzhungarian rupture is likely linked with a previously identified paleo-earthquake rupture on the Lepsy Fault through a system of splays in the intervening highlands. Though there are remaining uncertainties regarding consistency in age constraints between the two fault ruptures, most of the sites along the two faults are consistent with a most recent event 2,000–4,000 years ago. Rupture on the Dzhungarian Fault alone is likely to have exceeded Mw 8, and the combined Lepsy-Dzhungarian rupture scenario may have been up to Mw 8.4. Despite being at the upper end of known or inferred continental earthquake magnitudes, our proposed scenario combining the 375 km of the Dzhungarian and Lepsy ruptures yields a slip-to-length ratio consistent with global averages and so do other historical intracontinental earthquakes in Central Asia

Can forest management based on natural disturbances maintain ecological resilience?

Given the increasingly global stresses on forests, many ecologists argue that managers must maintain ecological resilience: the capacity of ecosystems to absorb disturbances without undergoing fundamental change. In this review we ask: Can the emerging paradigm of natural-disturbance-based management (NDBM) maintain ecological resilience in managed forests? Applying resilience theory requires careful articulation of the ecosystem state under consideration, the disturbances and stresses that affect the persistence of possible alternative states, and the spatial and temporal scales of management relevance. Implementing NDBM while maintaining resilience means recognizing that (i) biodiversity is important for long-term ecosystem persistence, (ii) natural disturbances play a critical role as a generator of structural and compositional heterogeneity at multiple scales, and (iii) traditional management tends to produce forests more homogeneous than those disturbed naturally and increases the likelihood of unexpected catastrophic change by constraining variation of key environmental processes. NDBM may maintain resilience if silvicultural strategies retain the structures and processes that perpetuate desired states while reducing those that enhance resilience of undesirable states. Such strategies require an understanding of harvesting impacts on slow ecosystem processes, such as seed-bank or nutrient dynamics, which in the long term can lead to ecological surprises by altering the forest's capacity to reorganize after disturbance

Assessing the activity of faults in continental interiors: Palaeoseismic insights from SE Kazakhstan

The presence of fault scarps is a first-order criterion for identifying active faults. Yet the preservation of these features depends on the recurrence interval between surface rupturing events, combined with the rates of erosional and depositional processes that act on the landscape. Within arid continental interiors single earthquake scarps can be preserved for thousands of years, and yet the interval between surface ruptures on faults in these regions may be much longer, such that the lack of evidence for surface faulting in the morphology may not preclude activity on those faults. In this study we investigate the 50 km-long ‘Toraigyr’ thrust fault in the northern Tien Shan. From palaeoseismological trenching we show that two surface rupturing earthquakes occurred in the last $\textbf{39.9±2.7 ka}$ BP, but only the most recent event (3.15–3.6 ka BP) has a clear morphological expression. We conclude that a landscape reset took place in between the two events, likely as a consequence of the climatic change at the end of the last glacial maximum. These findings illustrate that in the Tien Shan evidence for the most recent active faulting can be easily obliterated by climatic processes due to the long earthquake recurrence intervals. Our results illustrate the problems related to the assessment of active tectonic deformation and seismic hazard assessments in continental interior settings.This study was financed by NERC and ESRC (Earthquakes without Frontiers project, Grant code: EwF_NE/J02001X/1_1), and the Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes and Tectonics (COMET). KOMPSAT-2 imagery was obtained through a category-1 award to RTW. EJC thanks St. Edmund Hall for travel support. RTW was supported during this research by a University Research Fellowship from the Royal Society of London

Horizontal Branch Stars: The Interplay between Observations and Theory, and Insights into the Formation of the Galaxy

We review HB stars in a broad astrophysical context, including both variable and non-variable stars. A reassessment of the Oosterhoff dichotomy is presented, which provides unprecedented detail regarding its origin and systematics. We show that the Oosterhoff dichotomy and the distribution of globular clusters (GCs) in the HB morphology-metallicity plane both exclude, with high statistical significance, the possibility that the Galactic halo may have formed from the accretion of dwarf galaxies resembling present-day Milky Way satellites such as Fornax, Sagittarius, and the LMC. A rediscussion of the second-parameter problem is presented. A technique is proposed to estimate the HB types of extragalactic GCs on the basis of integrated far-UV photometry. The relationship between the absolute V magnitude of the HB at the RR Lyrae level and metallicity, as obtained on the basis of trigonometric parallax measurements for the star RR Lyrae, is also revisited, giving a distance modulus to the LMC of (m-M)_0 = 18.44+/-0.11. RR Lyrae period change rates are studied. Finally, the conductive opacities used in evolutionary calculations of low-mass stars are investigated. [ABRIDGED]Comment: 56 pages, 22 figures. Invited review, to appear in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

Seismotectonic aspects of the Ms 7.3 1948 October 5 Aşgabat (Ashgabat) earthquake, Türkmenistan: right-lateral rupture across multiple fault segments, and continuing urban hazard

The Ms 7.3 1948 Aşgabat earthquake was one of the most devastating earthquakes of the 20th century, yet little is known about its location, style and causative fault. In this study, we bring together new seismic and geomorphic observations with previously published descriptions of surface rupture and damage distributions to determine the likely source of the earthquake. We determine the epicentre and focal mechanism of this earthquake from digitized historical seismograms and the relocation of regional seismicity to show that the earthquake most likely nucleated close to the city of Aşgabat. The earthquake ruptured a right-lateral strike-slip fault to the southeast of the city, which has a clear long-term expression in the landscape, and also likely reactivated a subparallel concealed thrust along the Gyaursdag anticline east of the city. The earthquake potentially also ruptured a right-lateral segment northwest of Aşgabat, which does not have an identifiable expression in the landscape. Using high-resolution satellite imagery and digital elevation models we investigate the geomorphology of active faulting around Aşgabat and adjacent parts of the Köpetdag (Kopeh Dagh) mountain range front, showing that there are significant strike-slip and oblique strike-slip segments adjacent to the city that apparently did not rupture in 1948, and yet show clear geomorphic expression and potential right-lateral displacement of Parthian-era (∼2000 yr) and post-Sassanian era (∼1500 yr) archaeological remains. Luminescence dating of displaced fluvial terraces west of Aşgabat yields a vertical displacement rate of 0.6 mm yr−1, though the strike-slip rate remains undetermined