Determinants of the onshore and offshore Chinese Government yield curves

As part of its effort to internationalize the Renminbi, China's government has promoted the establishment of a regulated offshore Renminbi capital market hub in Hong Kong, where, among other activities, it issues RMB-denominated government bonds providing foreign investors access to Chinese bond markets. In a VAR model where yield curves are represented by Nelson-Siegel latent factors and which includes macroeconomic variables, we find that onshore government bond yields are primarily driven by policy-related factors such as the policy rate and money supply, whereas offshore government bond yields are additionally driven by market-related factors such as consumer confidence, GDP and FX rate expectations as well as liquidity constraints. At the current stage of market development there are virtually no spillover effects between the onshore and offshore government bond curves. Our results add quantitative evidence that China's efforts to internationalize its currency results in a simultaneous liberalization of its financial system

Precipitation fields in Poland associated with van Bebber’s Vb cyclones

artykuł recenzowanyThe article presents the course of the average annual trajectory of van Bebber’s Vb cyclones. The most rainfall-efficient section of the trajectory, i.e. the occurrence region of cyclones which produce the highest precipitation in Poland, was delimited. A map of average daily precipitation totals associated with Vb lows was constructed as well as a map indicating the maximum rainfall i.e. the highest sum of daily precipitation at the weather station in the period 1958‒2008 associated with the Vb cyclones situated close to the most rainfall-efficient segment of the trajectory. Vb route begins at the Balearic Sea and ends over southern Finland. The highest rainfall in Poland is associated with lows situated in the vicinity of the middle section of the trajectory – over eastern Hungary, western Romania or southern Slovakia. The highest average amount of rainfall can be observed in south-eastern Poland, particularly in the Żywiec dale, in the Tatras, and over the Lublin Upland. Maximum daily rainfall associated with Vb cyclones occurred on Śnieżka peak and reached 129.2 mm.W artykule przedstawiono przebieg średniej trajektorii niżów Vb van Bebbera w skali roku. Wyznaczono najbardziej opadotwórczy odcinek trajektorii, tzn. region występowania cyklonów, które wywołują najwyższe opady w Polsce. Skonstruowano mapę średnich sum dobowych opadu związanych z niżami Vb oraz mapę opadów maksymalnych informującą o tym, jaka była najwyższa wartość opadu w danej stacji meteorologicznej w okresie 1958‒2008 związana z wystąpieniem niżu Vb na wyróżnionym – najbardziej opadotwórczym – odcinku trajektorii. Szlak Vb rozpoczyna się na Morzu Balearskim, a kończy nad południową Finlandią. Najwyższe opady w Polsce związane są z niżami usytuowanymi w sąsiedztwie środkowego odcinka trajektorii – nad wschodnimi Węgrami, zachodnią Rumunią lub południową Słowacją. Najwyższe średnie sumy opadów można zaobserwować w Polsce Południowo-Wschodniej. Maksima występują w Kotlinie Żywieckiej, w Tatrach i na Wyżynie Lubelskiej. Maksymalny opad dobowy związany z niżem Vb wystąpił na Śnieżce i osiągnął wartość 129,2 mm.NCN: grant N N30631373

Yvette and the weather in Europe – May 2014

notatka-reportThe paper presents the characteristics of the life cycle of the “Yvette” cyclone and the associated rainfall in Europe. The low originated on May 13th over the Gulf of Genoa. The system moved along Vb route over the Hungarian lowlands, then changed its path to the west. The system was visible on the maps for approx 4.5 days. Heavy rain affected areas of Serbia situated south-west of Belgrade. On May 14th the daily totals reached 112 mm in Belgrade and 130 mm in Loznica. In Bosnia and Herzegovina the rainfall was much lower than in Serbia. In Croatia the precipitation maxima were smaller than in Serbia and BiH. In Poland the highest rainfall occurred between 15 and 17 of May. Record amount of pre-cipitation was measured on May 15th in Zakopane (114 mm). If Yvette trajectory had not been shifted from the Vb pathway toward the west the precipitation and flood risk in Poland would have been higher.Szansa wystąpienia niżu śródziemnomorskiego, który w dalszych etapach cyklu życiowego przemieści się nad Europę Środkowo-Wschodnią, rośnie wiosną i osiąga maksimum w kwietniu i maju (Degirmendžić, Kożuchowski 2014). Wiosną 2014 r. pogoda rozwinęła się według przewidywalnego scenariusza – serię niżów przemieszczających się na wschód znad Północnego Atlantyku w pierwszej połowie maja zakończył klin wyżowy rozcią- gnięty południkowo znad Morza Norweskiego nad Azory. Cyrkulacja strefowa została zablokowana i wzrosło prawdopodobieństwo wystąpienia quasi-południkowych trajektorii niżów.NCN N N30631373

The ecology, genetics and evolution of two Saxifraga species with different fragmentation histories

The aim of this thesis was to study the ecology, genetics and evolution of two congeneric species with different fragmentation histories. Saxifraga sponhemica is a glacial relict species of long-term fragmented lowland rock and scree habitats, and has been naturally rare for thousands of years with a disjunct distribution in Central Europe. Saxifraga granulata is a formerly common species of species-rich semi-natural grasslands that has become recently fragmented due to the intensification of agricultural practices. Fragmentation generally leads to loss of genetic diversity due to drift and inbreeding, reduced mean fitness and increased extinction rates of populations. Formerly common species are expected to be particularly susceptible to the recent anthropogenic fragmentation of their habitats. An analysis of the genetic diversity and the genetic structure of S. sponhemica populations based on RAPD-markers showed that in most populations considerable genetic variability has been preserved. An isolation by distance pattern of genetic differentiation suggested historical gene flow during the last glaciation when suitable habitats were much more abundant. Long-lived plant species can thus maintain historic genetic patterns despite the small size and strong isolation of populations. We grew plants form several families per population in a common garden to study the quantitative genetic variation within and among populations. We found several lines of evidence for divergent selection. Most population trait means were significantly related to climate gradients, indicating adaptation. Quantitative genetic differentiation increased with climatic distance and with geographical distance, even when neutral molecular divergence was controlled for, and quantitative genetic differentiation (QST) exceeded molecular genetic differentiation (FST) for some traits. Traits under strong selection showed little genetic variation within populations. The evolutionary potential of a population was not related to its size, the performance of the population or its neutral genetic diversity. However, performance in the common garden was lower for plants from populations with reduced molecular genetic variation, suggesting inbreeding depression due to genetic erosion. Studies of molecular and quantitative genetic variation may thus provide complementary insights important for the conservation of rare species. S. sponhemica does not appear to be genetically threatened in the short term, but populations are threatened by habitat destruction. A conservation measure could be to create new populations in suitable habitats with seeds from the same region to avoid local maladaptation. We also studied the RAPD molecular and the quantitative genetic structure of 19 populations of the declining grassland plant S. granulata in a geographically restricted area in Luxembourg and Germany. Differentiation for quantitative traits (QST) was slightly lower than differentiation for molecular markers (FST) suggesting homogenising selection for optimal trait values. Contrary to our expectations, the level of differentiation among fragmented S. granulata populations was low, and molecular genetic diversity was high and was not correlated with the size or the mean plant performance of populations. Gene flow by long distance dispersal or the longevity, clonality and polyploidy of S.granulata may have prevented genetic erosion due to drift. To avoid genetic erosion in the future, extant populations should be preserved and gene flow among populations should be maintained. Habitat fragmentation has led to increased inbreeding and inbreeding depression in many species. We investigated the effects of increased inbreeding and of intra- and interpopulation crosses on the reproduction and performance of S. granulata. Between population crosses may result in increased performance (heterosis), but may also lead to the disruption of coadapted gene complexes and to decreased performance (outbreeding depression). Inbreeding depression affected all traits in the F1 generation, but was stronger for traits expressed late during development and varied among families. Multiplicative fitness of the F2 generation after serial inbreeding was extremely low, but there was heterosis after crossing inbred lines. Outbreeding depression was however not observed in the F2. We also subjected the first generation of offspring to a fertilization and stress treatments (competition and defoliation). The adaptive plasticity of offspring from selfing and from interpopulation crosses in response to nutrient addition was reduced. Outbreeding depression was also observed in response to stress. The results suggest that continuous inbreeding may drastically reduce the fitness of plants, but effects may be environment-dependent. Overall, the results of this thesis advance knowledge on the role of time since habitat fragmentation, of historic connectivity among populations, and of life history traits such as longevity and clonality on the processes of selection and drift that shape the genetic variation within and among populations. It stresses the importance of using both molecular and quantitative genetic tools to gain complementary insight for the conservation of rare and endangered plant species. It shows how knowledge about the vulnerability to increased inbreeding and the potential risks of artificially increasing gene flow between populations of recently fragmented species contributes to their effective conservation

The order parameter-entropy relation in some universal classes: experimental evidence

The asymptotic behaviour near phase transitions can be suitably characterized by the scaling of $\Delta s/Q^2$ with $\epsilon=1-T/T_c$, where $\Delta s$ is the excess entropy and $Q$ is the order parameter. As $\Delta s$ is obtained by integration of the experimental excess specific heat of the transition $\Delta c$, it displays little experimental noise so that the curve $\log(\Delta s/Q^2)$ versus $\log\epsilon$ is better constrained than, say, $\log\Delta c$ versus $\log\epsilon$. The behaviour of $\Delta s/Q^2$ for different universality classes is presented and compared. In all cases, it clearly deviates from being a constant. The determination of this function can then be an effective method to distinguish asymptotic critical behaviour. For comparison, experimental data for three very different systems, Rb2CoF4, Rb2ZnCl4 and SrTiO3, are analysed under this approach. In SrTiO3, the function $\Delta s/Q^2$ does not deviate within experimental resolution from a straight line so that, although Q can be fitted with a non mean-field exponent, the data can be explained by a classical Landau mean-field behaviour. In contrast, the behaviour of $\Delta s/Q^2$ for the antiferromagnetic transition in Rb2CoF4 and the normal-incommensurate phase transition in Rb2ZCl4 is fully consistent with the asymptotic critical behaviour of the universality class corresponding to each case. This analysis supports, therefore, the claim that incommensurate phase transitions in general, and the A$_2$BX$_4$ compounds in particular, in contrast with most structural phase transitions, have critical regions large enough to be observable.Comment: 13 pp. 9 ff. 2 tab. RevTeX. Submitted to J. Phys.: Cond. Matte

Springs of the Bystrzyca Dusznicka Drainage Basin

This article is an attempt of a presentation concerning the springs of the upper part of the Bystrzyca Dusznicka drainage basin against a background of the tectonic structure and geology. All the measurements and mapping of the surface hydrolographical objects were carried out in July 1993. The most important tectonic element of the researched area, which determines the spatial layout and the features of the springs, seems to be the Zieleniec overthrust consisting of the folded Proterozoik mica slates. The lower edge of its overthrust is at a height of 800 m. The rest of the drainage basin is formed of upper Cretaceous sediments dipping in the inner-Sudeten syncline. Later alpine deformations modified the geological structure of this area. The faults formed in such a way as to form 2 systems of crackings: the parallelone and slanted one running NW to SE. The Bystrzyca Dusznicka valley which runs alongside the axis of the drainage basin shows the water-gap character. In the researched area the authors observed either subsurface water in the mantle rocks, or fissure water circulating in the deeper metamorphic rocks. The upper Cretaceous porous sandstones form the most capacious underground water basin. Each water-bearing underground water horizon is separated with marly rocks. From among springs of the researched area three basic types of them were distinguished: fissure, fissure-mantle and mantle springs. Five big fissure springs ranged between 18 and 36 dm3• S-l form the source of the Bystrzyca Dusznicka river. In the drainage basin area over 100 outflows were recorded of which more than 20 were classified as spring sappings. The springs with the biggest average yield equal 2,5 dm3• S-I found in the escarpment zone of the mentioned above overthrust; whereas alongside the eastern undercut there are many small springs and spring sappings of the valley and channel character. Value of the correlation coefficient between spring water temperature and its altitude is equal to r =-0,62. It testifies to the evident inversely proportional relationship between these factors. In the upper parts of the basin fissure springs dominate whereas in the lower parts - hotter mantle ones do. At the height-interval of 700-900 m there are either mantle springs or fissure ones. The conclusions which flow from this article prove the thesis that in the mountainous areas the following factors determine the regime and localization of springs: tectonics, geology and relief of the researched area.Opracowanie niniejsze jest próbą prezentacji źródeł zlewni górnej Bystrzycy Dusznickiej na tle budowy geologicznej i tektoniki obszaru. W opracowaniu zwrócono szczególną uwagę na termikę wód źródlanych i związek występowania obszarów źródliskowych z budową geologiczną zlewni

Current state of plant conservation translocations across Europe: motivations, challenges and outcomes

Plant translocation is a conservation technique increasingly used around the world. In Europe, numerous unpublished initiatives have resulted in scattered information in grey literature that is difficult to access. This represents a major obstacle to the exchange of information and experience among scientists, practitioners and competent authorities. To help filling this gap, we launched a large-scale questionnaire survey with 39 questions relating to methods, motivations, problems encountered and outcomes, supplemented by a screening of scientific publications, grey literature and national/regional databases. We gathered data on 3211 plant translocations across the European continent carried out on 1166 taxa in 28 countries, which represents the largest dataset of its kind in the world to date. Target translocated species were mainly forbs from grassland habitats and had a conservation status of greater concern nationally than globally. Practitioners mainly used plug plants originating from a single source (the geographically closest to the target site). Weather events and plant diseases were the most often unanticipated problems noticed by respondents. Through monitoring, it was found that most populations flowered but often did not reproduce and could not persist for more than five years, showcasing the challenge that translocations still present for conservationists. This work will be useful in linking conservationists and enabling them to save time and resources by more easily identifying the best practices suited to their target species, with the ultimate aim of improving the science and practice of plant translocations in Europe and beyond