Superficial simplicity of the 2010 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake of Baja California in Mexico

The geometry of faults is usually thought to be more complicated at the surface than at depth and to control the initiation, propagation and arrest of seismic ruptures. The fault system that runs from southern California into Mexico is a simple strike-slip boundary: the west side of California and Mexico moves northwards with respect to the east. However, the M_w 7.2 2010 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake on this fault system produced a pattern of seismic waves that indicates a far more complex source than slip on a planar strike-slip fault. Here we use geodetic, remote-sensing and seismological data to reconstruct the fault geometry and history of slip during this earthquake. We find that the earthquake produced a straight 120-km-long fault trace that cut through the Cucapah mountain range and across the Colorado River delta. However, at depth, the fault is made up of two different segments connected by a small extensional fault. Both segments strike N130° E, but dip in opposite directions. The earthquake was initiated on the connecting extensional fault and 15 s later ruptured the two main segments with dominantly strike-slip motion. We show that complexities in the fault geometry at depth explain well the complex pattern of radiated seismic waves. We conclude that the location and detailed characteristics of the earthquake could not have been anticipated on the basis of observations of surface geology alone

Comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials using clinical risk-benefit analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To demonstrate the use of risk-benefit analysis for comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials, we applied this approach to the evaluation of five anticoagulants to prevent thrombosis in patients undergoing orthopedic surgery.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a cost-effectiveness approach from a clinical perspective (i.e. risk benefit analysis) we compared thromboprophylaxis with warfarin, low molecular weight heparin, unfractionated heparin, fondaparinux or ximelagatran in patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery, with sub-analyses according to surgery type. Proportions and variances of events defining risk (major bleeding) and benefit (thrombosis averted) were obtained through a meta-analysis and used to define beta distributions. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted and used to calculate incremental risks, benefits, and risk-benefit ratios. Finally, net clinical benefit was calculated for all replications across a range of risk-benefit acceptability thresholds, with a reference range obtained by estimating the case fatality rate - ratio of thrombosis to bleeding.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The analysis showed that compared to placebo ximelagatran was superior to other options but final results were influenced by type of surgery, since ximelagatran was superior in total knee replacement but not in total hip replacement.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Using simulation and economic techniques we demonstrate a method that allows comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials with multiple arms by determining the option with the best risk-benefit profile. It can be helpful in clinical decision making since it incorporates risk, benefit, and personal risk acceptance.</p

Victim awareness : re-examining a probation fundamental

‘Ensuring offenders' awareness of the effects of crime on the victims of crime and the public’ is one of five stated aims of the National Probation Service of England and Wales and specifically undertaking victim awareness work is an expectation of the service’s work. The nature and putative value of such work appears to be rarely questioned however. It is argued that ‘victim awareness’ is a confused concept in terms of its rationale, definition, and empirical basis as a criminogenic need. These issues are evaluated and the practice implications discussed. A possible model of victim awareness work is described

A multi-level spectral deferred correction method

The spectral deferred correction (SDC) method is an iterative scheme for computing a higher-order collocation solution to an ODE by performing a series of correction sweeps using a low-order timestepping method. This paper examines a variation of SDC for the temporal integration of PDEs called multi-level spectral deferred corrections (MLSDC), where sweeps are performed on a hierarchy of levels and an FAS correction term, as in nonlinear multigrid methods, couples solutions on different levels. Three different strategies to reduce the computational cost of correction sweeps on the coarser levels are examined: reducing the degrees of freedom, reducing the order of the spatial discretization, and reducing the accuracy when solving linear systems arising in implicit temporal integration. Several numerical examples demonstrate the effect of multi-level coarsening on the convergence and cost of SDC integration. In particular, MLSDC can provide significant savings in compute time compared to SDC for a three-dimensional problem

Preparation and optical properties of novel bioactive photonic crystals obtained from core-shell poly(styrene/α-tert-butoxy-ω-vinylbenzyl-polyglycidol) microspheres

Optical properties of polymer microspheres with polystyrene cores and polyglycidol-enriched shells poly(styrene/α-tert-butoxy-ω-vinylbenzyl-polyglycidol) (P(S/PGL) particles with number average diameters Dn determined by scanning electron microscopy equal 237 and 271 nm), were studied before and after immobilization of ovalbumin. The particles were synthesized by emulsifier-free emulsion copolymerization of styrene and polyglycidol macromonomer (poly(styrene/α-tert-butoxy-ω-vinylbenzyl-polyglycidol)) initiated with potassium persulfate. Molar fraction of polyglycidol units in the interfacial layer of the microspheres determined by XPS was equal 42.6 and 34.0%, for the particles with Dn equal 137 and 271 nm, respectively. Colloidal crystals from the aforementioned particles were prepared by deposition of particle suspensions on the glass slides and subsequent evaporation of water. It was found that optical properties of colloidal crystals from the P(S/PGL) microspheres strongly depend on modification of their interfacial layer by covalent immobilization of ovalbumin. The coating of particles with ovalbumin resulted in decreasing their refractive index from 1.58 to 1.52

Modeling Robustness Tradeoffs in Yeast Cell Polarization Induced by Spatial Gradients

Cells localize (polarize) internal components to specific locations in response to external signals such as spatial gradients. For example, yeast cells form a mating projection toward the source of mating pheromone. There are specific challenges associated with cell polarization including amplification of shallow external gradients of ligand to produce steep internal gradients of protein components (e.g. localized distribution), response over a broad range of ligand concentrations, and tracking of moving signal sources. In this work, we investigated the tradeoffs among these performance objectives using a generic model that captures the basic spatial dynamics of polarization in yeast cells, which are small. We varied the positive feedback, cooperativity, and diffusion coefficients in the model to explore the nature of this tradeoff. Increasing the positive feedback gain resulted in better amplification, but also produced multiple steady-states and hysteresis that prevented the tracking of directional changes of the gradient. Feedforward/feedback coincidence detection in the positive feedback loop and multi-stage amplification both improved tracking with only a modest loss of amplification. Surprisingly, we found that introducing lateral surface diffusion increased the robustness of polarization and collapsed the multiple steady-states to a single steady-state at the cost of a reduction in polarization. Finally, in a more mechanistic model of yeast cell polarization, a surface diffusion coefficient between 0.01 and 0.001 µm2/s produced the best polarization performance, and this range is close to the measured value. The model also showed good gradient-sensitivity and dynamic range. This research is significant because it provides an in-depth analysis of the performance tradeoffs that confront biological systems that sense and respond to chemical spatial gradients, proposes strategies for balancing this tradeoff, highlights the critical role of lateral diffusion of proteins in the membrane on the robustness of polarization, and furnishes a framework for future spatial models of yeast cell polarization

Presentism remains

Here I examine some recent attempts to provide a new way of thinking about the philosophy of time that question the central role of ‘presentness’ within the definition of presentism. The central concern raised by these critics turns on the intelligibility and theoretical usefulness of the term ‘is present’ (cf. Correia and Rosenkrantz in Thought 4:19–27, 2015; Deasy in Nous, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1111/nous.12109; Williamson in Modal logic as metaphysics, OUP, Oxford, 2013). My overarching aim is to at least challenge such concerns. I begin with arguments due to Deasy (Nous, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1111/nous.12109). Deasy develops a view that he calls ‘transientism’ and that he takes to be a well-motivated version of presentism. I show that both this way of thinking about presentism and the argument supposedly motivating it all fail. I then move to an argument due to Correia and Rosenkrantz (Thought 4:19–27, 2015). Correia and Rosenkrantz purport to show that presentism can be salvaged without making recourse to the term ‘is present’. I demonstrate that their arguments fail. I then move on to a view, proposed and defended by Merricks (Truth and ontology, OUP, Oxford, 2007), Tallant (Erkenntnis 79:479–501, 2014), and Zimmerman (Philos Pap 25:115–126, 1996), and show that it has the wherewithal to meet the challenges raised by Williamson (Modal logic as metaphysics, OUP, Oxford, 2013) who, as noted above, raises genuine concerns about our capacity to define presentism