Artificial neural network algorithm for online glucose prediction from continuous glucose monitoring.

Background and Aims: Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices could be useful for real-time management of diabetes therapy. In particular, CGM information could be used in real time to predict future glucose levels in order to prevent hypo-/hyperglycemic events. This article proposes a new online method for predicting future glucose concentration levels from CGM data. Methods: The predictor is implemented with an artificial neural network model (NNM). The inputs of the NNM are the values provided by the CGM sensor during the preceding 20 min, while the output is the prediction of glucose concentration at the chosen prediction horizon (PH) time. The method performance is assessed using datasets from two different CGM systems (nine subjects using the Medtronic [Northridge, CA] Guardian® and six subjects using the Abbott [Abbott Park, IL] Navigator®). Three different PHs are used: 15, 30, and 45 min. The NNM accuracy has been estimated by using the root mean square error (RMSE) and prediction delay. Results: The RMSE is around 10, 18, and 27 mg/dL for 15, 30, and 45 min of PH, respectively. The prediction delay is around 4, 9, and 14 min for upward trends and 5, 15, and 26 min for downward trends, respectively. A comparison with a previously published technique, based on an autoregressive model (ARM), has been performed. The comparison shows that the proposed NNM is more accurate than the ARM, with no significant deterioration in the prediction delay

Ontology-based employer demand management

Skills shortages globally pose a real and urgent need for proper investigation and workforce development planning into the future. Analysing workforce development and employer demand needs through electronic job market allows much deeper and wider research into skill shortages. Current methods do not provide the level of depth required to address such important economic implications. In this paper, we present a system aiming to gather and analyse current employer demand information from online job advertisements. It identifies current employer demand needs analysed from electronic job market

Collective Animal Behavior from Bayesian Estimation and Probability Matching

Animals living in groups make movement decisions that depend, among other factors, on social interactions with other group members. Our present understanding of social rules in animal collectives is based on empirical fits to observations and we lack first-principles approaches that allow their derivation. Here we show that patterns of collective decisions can be derived from the basic ability of animals to make probabilistic estimations in the presence of uncertainty. We build a decision-making model with two stages: Bayesian estimation and probabilistic matching.
In the first stage, each animal makes a Bayesian estimation of which behavior is best to perform taking into account personal information about the environment and social information collected by observing the behaviors of other animals. In the probability matching stage, each animal chooses a behavior with a probability given by the Bayesian estimation that this behavior is the most appropriate one. This model derives very simple rules of interaction in animal collectives that depend only on two types of reliability parameters, one that each animal assigns to the other animals and another given by the quality of the non-social information. We test our model by obtaining theoretically a rich set of observed collective patterns of decisions in three-spined sticklebacks, Gasterosteus aculeatus, a shoaling fish species. The quantitative link shown between probabilistic estimation and collective rules of behavior allows a better contact with other fields such as foraging, mate selection, neurobiology and psychology, and gives predictions for experiments directly testing the relationship between estimation and collective behavior

Homochirality and the need of energy

The mechanisms for explaining how a stable asymmetric chemical system can be formed from a symmetric chemical system, in the absence of any asymmetric influence other than statistical fluctuations, have been developed during the last decades, focusing on the non-linear kinetic aspects. Besides the absolute necessity of self-amplification processes, the importance of energetic aspects is often underestimated. Going down to the most fundamental aspects, the distinction between a single object -- that can be intrinsically asymmetric -- and a collection of objects -- whose racemic state is the more stable one -- must be emphasized. A system of strongly interacting objects can be described as one single object retaining its individuality and a single asymmetry; weakly or non-interacting objects keep their own individuality, and are prone to racemize towards the equilibrium state. In the presence of energy fluxes, systems can be maintained in an asymmetric non-equilibrium steady-state. Such dynamical systems can retain their asymmetry for times longer than their racemization time.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures, submitted to Origins of Life and Evolution of Biosphere

Reactivation of Fault Systems by Compartmentalized Hydrothermal Fluids in the Southern Andes Revealed by Magnetotelluric and Seismic Data

In active volcanic arcs such as the Andean volcanic mountain belt, magmatically‐sourced fluids are channelled through the brittle crust by faults and fracture networks. In the Andes, volcanoes, geothermal springs and major mineral deposits have a spatial and genetic relationship with NNE‐trending, margin‐parallel faults and margin‐oblique, NW‐trending Andean Transverse Faults (ATF). The Tinguiririca and Planchón‐Peteroa volcanoes in the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) demonstrate this relationship, as their spatially associated thermal springs show strike alignment to the NNE‐oriented El Fierro Thrust Fault System. We constrain the fault system architecture and its interaction with volcanically sourced hydrothermal fluids using a combined magnetotelluric (MT) and seismic survey that was deployed for 20 months. High conductivity zones are located along the axis of the active volcanic chain, delineating fluids and/or melt. A distinct WNW‐trending cluster of seismicity correlates with resistivity contrasts, considered to be a reactivated ATF. Seismicity occurs below 4 km, suggesting activity is limited to basement rocks, and the cessation of seismicity at 9 km delineates the local brittle‐ductile transition. As seismicity is not seen west of the El Fierro fault, we hypothesize that this structure plays a key role in compartmentalizing magmatically‐derived hydrothermal fluids to the east, where the fault zone acts as a barrier to cross‐fault fluid migration and channels fault‐parallel fluid flow to the surface from depth. Increases in fluid pressure above hydrostatic may facilitate reactivation. This site‐specific case study provides the first three‐dimensional seismic and magnetotelluric observations of the mechanics behind the reactivation of an ATF

NSAID Use Selectively Increases the Risk of Non-Fatal Myocardial Infarction: A Systematic Review of Randomised Trials and Observational Studies

Recent clinical trials and observational studies have reported increased coronary events associated with non steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). There appeared to be a disproportionate increase in non-fatal versus fatal events, however, numbers of fatal events in individual studies were too small, and event rates too low, to be meaningful.We undertook a pooled analysis to investigate the effect of NSAIDs on myocardial infarction (MI) risk with the specific aim to differentiate non-fatal from fatal events.We searched Pubmed (January, 1990 to March, 2010) for observational studies and randomised controlled trials that assessed the effect of NSAIDs (traditional or selective COX-2 inhibitors [coxibs]) on MI incidence separately for fatal and non-fatal events. Summary estimates of relative risk (RR) for non-fatal and fatal MIs were calculated with a random effects model.NSAID therapy carried a RR of 1.30 (95% CI, 1.20-1.41) for non-fatal MI with no effect on fatal MI (RR 1.02, 95% CI, 0.89-1.17) in six observational studies. Overall, the risk increase for non-fatal MI was 25% higher (95% CI, 11%-42%) than for fatal MI. The two studies that included only individuals with prior cardiovascular disease presented risk estimates for non-fatal MI on average 58% greater (95% CI, 26%-98%) than those for fatal MI. In nine randomised controlled trials, all investigating coxibs, the pooled RR estimate for non-fatal MI was 1.61 (95% CI, 1.04-2.50) and 0.86 (95% CI 0.51-1.47) for fatal MIs.NSAID use increases the risk of non-fatal MI with no substantial effect on fatal events. Such differential effects, with potentially distinct underlying pathology may provide insights into NSAID-induced coronary pathology. We studied the association between the use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and the risk of myocardial infarction (MI), separating non-fatal from fatal events, summarizing the evidence from both observational studies and randomised controlled trials. An increased risk of non-fatal MI was clearly found in both types of studies while use of NSAID did not confer an increased risk of fatal MI. Our findings provide support for the concept that thrombi generated under NSAID treatment could be different from spontaneous thrombi

Observed communication semantics for classical processes

Classical Linear Logic (CLL) has long inspired readings of its proofs as communicating processes. Wadler's CP calculus is one of these readings. Wadler gave CP an operational semantics by selecting a subset of the cut-elimination rules of CLL to use as reduction rules. This semantics has an appealing close connection to the logic, but does not resolve the status of the other cut-elimination rules, and does not admit an obvious notion of observational equivalence. We propose a new operational semantics for CP based on the idea of observing communication, and use this semantics to define an intuitively reasonable notion of observational equivalence. To reason about observational equivalence, we use the standard relational denotational semantics of CLL. We show that this denotational semantics is adequate for our operational semantics. This allows us to deduce that, for instance, all the cut-elimination rules of CLL are observational equivalences

High Protein Binding and Cidal Activity against Penicillin-Resistant S. pneumoniae: A Cefditoren In Vitro Pharmacodynamic Simulation

BACKGROUND: Although protein binding is a reversible phenomenon, it is assumed that antibacterial activity is exclusively exerted by the free (unbound) fraction of antibiotics. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Activity of cefditoren, a highly protein bound 3(rd) generation cephalosporin, over 24h after an oral 400 mg cefditoren-pivoxil bid regimen was studied against six S. pneumoniae strains (penicillin/cefditoren MICs; microg/ml): S1 (0.12/0.25), S2 (0.25/0.25), S3 and S4 (0.5/0.5), S5 (1/0.5) and S6 (4/0.5). A computerized pharmacodynamic simulation with media consisting in 75% human serum and 25% broth (mean albumin concentrations = 4.85+/-0.12 g/dL) was performed. Protein binding was measured. The cumulative percentage of a 24h-period that drug concentrations exceeded the MIC for total (T > MIC) and unbound concentrations (fT > MIC), expressed as percentage of the dosing interval, were determined. Protein binding was 87.1%. Bactericidal activity (> or = 99.9% initial inocula reduction) was obtained against strains S1 and S2 at 24h (T > MIC = 77.6%, fT > MIC = 23.7%). With T > MIC of 61.6% (fT > MIC = 1.7%), reductions against S3 and S4 ranged from 90% to 97% at 12h and 24h; against S5, reduction was 45.1% at 12h and up to 85.0% at 24h; and against S6, reduction was 91.8% at 12h, but due to regrowth of 52.9% at 24h. Cefditoren physiological concentrations exerted antibacterial activity against strains exhibiting MICs of 0.25 and 0.5 microg/ml under protein binding conditions similar to those in humans. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results of this study suggest that, from the pharmacodynamic perspective, the presence of physiological albumin concentrations may not preclude antipneumococcal activity of highly bound cephalosporins as cefditoren

Revealing the last 13,500 years of environmental history from the multiproxy record of a mountain lake (Lago Enol, northern Iberian Peninsula)

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10933-009-9387-7.We present the Holocene sequence from Lago Enol (43°16′N, 4°59′W, 1,070 m a.s.l.), Cantabrian Mountains, northern Spain. A multiproxy analysis provided comprehensive information about regional humidity and temperature changes. The analysis included sedimentological descriptions, physical properties, organic carbon and carbonate content, mineralogy and geochemical composition together with biological proxies including diatom and ostracod assemblages. A detailed pollen study enabled reconstruction of variations in vegetation cover, which were interpreted in the context of climate changes and human impact. Four distinct stages were recognized for the last 13,500 years: (1) a cold and dry episode that includes the Younger Dryas event (13,500–11,600 cal. year BP); (2) a humid and warmer period characterizing the onset of the Holocene (11,600–8,700 cal. year BP); (3) a tendency toward a drier climate during the middle Holocene (8,700–4,650 cal. year BP); and (4) a return to humid conditions following landscape modification by human activity (pastoral activities, deforestation) in the late Holocene (4,650–2,200 cal. year BP). Superimposed on relatively stable landscape conditions (e.g. maintenance of well established forests), the typical environmental variability of the southern European region is observed at this site.The Spanish Inter-Ministry Commission of Science and Technology (CICYT), the Spanish National Parks agency, the European Commission, the Spanish Ministry of Science, and the European Social Fund