Coupling climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework: a convex optimization approach

In this paper we present a general method, based on a convex optimisation technique, that facilitates the coupling of climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework. As a demonstration of the method, we couple an economic growth model à la Ramsey adapted from DICE-99 with an efficient intermediate complexity climate model, C-GOLDSTEIN, which has highly simplified physics, but fully 3-D ocean dynamics. As in DICE-99 we assume that an economic cost is associated with global temperature change: this change is obtained from the climate model which is driven by the GHG concentrations computed from the economic growth path. The work extends a previous paper in which these models were coupled in cost-effectiveness mode. Here we consider the more intricate cost-benefit coupling in which the climate impact is not fixed a priori. We implement the coupled model using an oracle-based optimisation technique. Each model is contained in an oracle which supplies model output and information on its sensitivity to a master program. The algorithm Proximal-ACCPM guarantees the convergence of the procedure under sufficient convexity assumptions. Our results demonstrate the possibility of a consistent, cost-benefit, climate-damage optimisation analysis with a 3-D climate model

Risk Factors for In-hospital Nonhemorrhagic Stroke in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction Treated With Thrombolysis: Results from GUSTO-I

BACKGROUND: Nonhemorrhagic stroke occurs in 0.1% to 1.3% of patients with acute myocardial infarction who are treated with thrombolysis, with substantial associated mortality and morbidity. Little is known about the risk factors for its occurrence. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied the 247 patients with nonhemorrhagic stroke who were randomly assigned to one of four thrombolytic regimens within 6 hours of symptom onset in the GUSTO-I trial. We assessed the univariable and multivariable baseline risk factors for nonhemorrhagic stroke and created a scoring nomogram from the baseline multivariable modeling. We used time-dependent Cox modeling to determine multivariable in-hospital predictors of nonhemorrhagic stroke. Baseline and in-hospital predictors were then combined to determine the overall predictors of nonhemorrhagic stroke. Of the 247 patients, 42 (17%) died and another 98 (40%) were disabled by 30-day follow-up. Older age was the most important baseline clinical predictor of nonhemorrhagic stroke, followed by higher heart rate, history of stroke or transient ischemic attack, diabetes, previous angina, and history of hypertension. These factors remained statistically significant predictors in the combined model, along with worse Killip class, coronary angiography, bypass surgery, and atrial fibrillation/flutter. CONCLUSIONS: Nonhemorrhagic stroke is a serious event in patients with acute myocardial infarction who are treated with thrombolytic, antithrombin, and antiplatelet therapy. We developed a simple nomogram that can predict the risk of nonhemorrhagic stroke on the basis of baseline clinical characteristics. Prophylactic anticoagulation may be an important treatment strategy for patients with high probability for nonhemorrhagic stroke, but further study is needed

Novae Ejecta as Colliding Shells

Following on our initial absorption-line analysis of fifteen novae spectra we present additional evidence for the existence of two distinct components of novae ejecta having different origins. As argued in Paper I one component is the rapidly expanding gas ejected from the outer layers of the white dwarf by the outburst. The second component is pre-existing outer, more slowly expanding circumbinary gas that represents ejecta from the secondary star or accretion disk. We present measurements of the emission-line widths that show them to be significantly narrower than the broad P Cygni profiles that immediately precede them. The emission profiles of novae in the nebular phase are distinctly rectangular, i.e., strongly suggestive of emission from a relatively thin, roughly spherical shell. We thus interpret novae spectral evolution in terms of the collision between the two components of ejecta, which converts the early absorption spectrum to an emission-line spectrum within weeks of the outburst. The narrow emission widths require the outer circumbinary gas to be much more massive than the white dwarf ejecta, thereby slowing the latter's expansion upon collision. The presence of a large reservoir of circumbinary gas at the time of outburst is suggestive that novae outbursts may sometime be triggered by collapse of gas onto the white dwarf, as occurs for dwarf novae, rather than steady mass transfer through the inner Lagrangian point.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures; Revised manuscript; Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Scienc

A Region of Violent Star Formation in the Irr Galaxy IC 10: Structure and Kinematics of Ionized and Neutral Gas

We have used observations of the galaxy IC 10 at the 6-m telescope of the Special Astrophysical Observatory with the SCORPIO focal reducer in the Fabry-Perot interferometer mode and with the MPFS spectrograph to study the structure and kinematics of ionized gas in the central region of current intense star formation. Archive VLA 21-cm observations are used to analyze the structure and kinematics of neutral gas in this region. High-velocity wings of the H-alpha and [SII] emission lines were revealed in the inner cavity of the nebula HL 111 and in other parts of the complex of violent star formation. We have discovered local expanding neutral-gas shells around the nebulae HL 111 and HL 106.Comment: 22 pages, 10 figures; accepted in Astronomy Report

Interleukin‐18 in patients with acute coronary syndromes

Background We aimed to assess associations between circulating IL‐18 concentrations and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Hypothesis and Methods Plasma IL‐18 concentrations were measured at admission, discharge, 1 month, and 6 months in patients with ACS in the PLATelet inhibition and patient Outcomes (PLATO) trial. Associations with outcomes were evaluated with Cox regression models on the composite of CV death, spontaneous myocardial infarction (sMI), or stroke; and on CV death or sMI separately, including adjustment for clinical risk factors and biomarkers (cTnT‐hs, NT‐proBNP, cystatin C, CRP‐hs, and GDF‐15). Results Median IL‐18 concentrations at baseline, discharge, 1 month, and 6 months were 237, 283, 305, and 320 ng/L (n = 16 636). Male sex, obesity, diabetes, and plasma levels of cystatin C, GDF‐15, and CRP‐hs were independently associated with higher IL‐18 levels. Higher baseline IL‐18 levels were associated with the composite endpoint and with CV death (hazard ratio [HR] 1.05, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.02‐1.07 and HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.06‐1.14, respectively, per 25% increase of IL‐18 levels). Associations remained significant after adjustment for clinical variables but became non‐significant after adjustment for all biomarkers (HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.98‐1.04 and HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00‐1.08, respectively). There were no associations with sMI. Conclusions In ACS patients, IL‐18 concentrations increased after the acute event and remained increased for 6 months. Baseline IL‐18 levels were significantly associated with CV mortality, independent of clinical characteristics and indicators of renal/cardiac dysfunction but this association was attenuated after adjustment for multiple biomarkers

The Science of Sungrazers, Sunskirters, and Other Near-Sun Comets

This review addresses our current understanding of comets that venture close to the Sun, and are hence exposed to much more extreme conditions than comets that are typically studied from Earth. The extreme solar heating and plasma environments that these objects encounter change many aspects of their behaviour, thus yielding valuable information on both the comets themselves that complements other data we have on primitive solar system bodies, as well as on the near-solar environment which they traverse. We propose clear definitions for these comets: We use the term near-Sun comets to encompass all objects that pass sunward of the perihelion distance of planet Mercury (0.307 AU). Sunskirters are defined as objects that pass within 33 solar radii of the Sun’s centre, equal to half of Mercury’s perihelion distance, and the commonly-used phrase sungrazers to be objects that reach perihelion within 3.45 solar radii, i.e. the fluid Roche limit. Finally, comets with orbits that intersect the solar photosphere are termed sundivers. We summarize past studies of these objects, as well as the instruments and facilities used to study them, including space-based platforms that have led to a recent revolution in the quantity and quality of relevant observations. Relevant comet populations are described, including the Kreutz, Marsden, Kracht, and Meyer groups, near-Sun asteroids, and a brief discussion of their origins. The importance of light curves and the clues they provide on cometary composition are emphasized, together with what information has been gleaned about nucleus parameters, including the sizes and masses of objects and their families, and their tensile strengths. The physical processes occurring at these objects are considered in some detail, including the disruption of nuclei, sublimation, and ionisation, and we consider the mass, momentum, and energy loss of comets in the corona and those that venture to lower altitudes. The different components of comae and tails are described, including dust, neutral and ionised gases, their chemical reactions, and their contributions to the near-Sun environment. Comet-solar wind interactions are discussed, including the use of comets as probes of solar wind and coronal conditions in their vicinities. We address the relevance of work on comets near the Sun to similar objects orbiting other stars, and conclude with a discussion of future directions for the field and the planned ground- and space-based facilities that will allow us to address those science topics