Potential for early forecast of Moroccan wheat yields based on climatic drivers

Wheat production plays an important role in Morocco. Current wheat forecast systems use weather and vegetation data during the crop growing phase, thus limiting the earliest possible release date to early spring. However, Morocco' s wheat production is mostly rainfed and thus strongly tied to fluctuations in rainfall, which in turn depend on slowly evolving climate dynamics. This offers a source of predictability at longer time scales. Using physically guided causal discovery algorithms, we extract climate precursors for wheat yield variability from gridded fields of geopotential height and sea surface temperatures which show potential for accurate yield forecasts already in December, with around 50% explained variance in an out‐of‐sample cross validation. The detected interactions are physically meaningful and consistent with documented ocean‐atmosphere feedbacks. Reliable yield forecasts at such long lead times could provide farmers and policy makers with necessary information for early action and strategic adaptation measurements to support food security

Presupernova Structure of Massive Stars

Issues concerning the structure and evolution of core collapse progenitor stars are discussed with an emphasis on interior evolution. We describe a program designed to investigate the transport and mixing processes associated with stellar turbulence, arguably the greatest source of uncertainty in progenitor structure, besides mass loss, at the time of core collapse. An effort to use precision observations of stellar parameters to constrain theoretical modeling is also described.Comment: Proceedings for invited talk at High Energy Density Laboratory Astrophysics conference, Caltech, March 2010. Special issue of Astrophysics and Space Science, submitted for peer review: 7 pages, 3 figure

ASTEC -- the Aarhus STellar Evolution Code

The Aarhus code is the result of a long development, starting in 1974, and still ongoing. A novel feature is the integration of the computation of adiabatic oscillations for specified models as part of the code. It offers substantial flexibility in terms of microphysics and has been carefully tested for the computation of solar models. However, considerable development is still required in the treatment of nuclear reactions, diffusion and convective mixing.Comment: Astrophys. Space Sci, in the pres

An Injection System for the CHIME/FRB Experiment

Dedicated surveys searching for Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs) are subject to selection effects which bias the observed population of events. Software injection systems are one method of correcting for these biases by injecting a mock population of synthetic FRBs directly into the realtime search pipeline. The injected population may then be used to map intrinsic burst properties onto an expected signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), so long as telescope characteristics such as the beam model and calibration factors are properly accounted for. This paper presents an injection system developed for the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment Fast Radio Burst project (CHIME/FRB). The system was tested to ensure high detection efficiency, and the pulse calibration method was verified. Using an injection population of ~85,000 synthetic FRBs, we found that the correlation between fluence and SNR for injected FRBs was consistent with that of CHIME/FRB detections in the first CHIME/FRB catalog. We also noted that the sensitivity of the telescope varied strongly as a function of the broadened burst width, but not as a function of the dispersion measure. We conclude that some of the machine-learning based Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) mitigation methods used by CHIME/FRB can be re-trained using injection data to increase sensitivity to wide events, and that planned upgrades to the presented injection system will allow for determining a more accurate CHIME/FRB selection function in the near future.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures. Submitted to A

ENSO feedbacks and their relationships with the mean state in a flux adjusted ensemble

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is governed by a combination of amplifying and damping ocean–atmosphere feedbacks in the equatorial Pacific. Here we quantify these feedbacks in a flux adjusted HadCM3 perturbed physics ensemble under present day conditions and a future emissions scenario using the Bjerknes Stability Index (BJ index). Relationships between feedbacks and both the present day biases and responses under climate change of the mean equatorial Pacific climate are investigated. Despite minimised mean sea surface temperature biases through flux adjustment, the important dominant ENSO feedbacks still show biases with respect to observed feedbacks and inter-ensemble diversity. The dominant positive thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks are found to be weaker in ensemble members with stronger mean zonal advection. This is due to a weaker sensitivity of the thermocline slope and zonal surface ocean currents in the east Pacific to surface wind stress anomalies. A drier west Pacific is also found to be linked to weakened shortwave and latent heat flux damping, suggesting a link between ENSO characteristics and the hydrological cycle. In contrast to previous studies using the BJ index that find positive relationships between the index and ENSO amplitude, here they are weakly or negatively correlated, both for present day conditions and for projected differences. This is caused by strong thermodynamic damping which dominates over positive feedbacks, which alone approximate ENSO amplitude well. While the BJ index proves useful for individual linear feedback analysis, we urge caution in using the total linear BJ index alone to assess the reasons for ENSO amplitude biases and its future change in models

Revival of the magnetar PSR J1622-4950: observations with MeerKAT, Parkes, XMM-Newton, Swift, Chandra, and NuSTAR

New radio (MeerKAT and Parkes) and X-ray (XMM-Newton, Swift, Chandra, and NuSTAR) observations of PSR J1622-4950 indicate that the magnetar, in a quiescent state since at least early 2015, reactivated between 2017 March 19 and April 5. The radio flux density, while variable, is approximately 100x larger than during its dormant state. The X-ray flux one month after reactivation was at least 800x larger than during quiescence, and has been decaying exponentially on a 111+/-19 day timescale. This high-flux state, together with a radio-derived rotational ephemeris, enabled for the first time the detection of X-ray pulsations for this magnetar. At 5%, the 0.3-6 keV pulsed fraction is comparable to the smallest observed for magnetars. The overall pulsar geometry inferred from polarized radio emission appears to be broadly consistent with that determined 6-8 years earlier. However, rotating vector model fits suggest that we are now seeing radio emission from a different location in the magnetosphere than previously. This indicates a novel way in which radio emission from magnetars can differ from that of ordinary pulsars. The torque on the neutron star is varying rapidly and unsteadily, as is common for magnetars following outburst, having changed by a factor of 7 within six months of reactivation.Comment: Published in ApJ (2018 April 5); 13 pages, 4 figure

Detection of Repeating FRB 180916.J0158+65 Down to Frequencies of 300 MHz

We report on the detection of seven bursts from the periodically active, repeating fast radio burst (FRB) source FRB 180916.J0158+65 in the 300-400-MHz frequency range with the Green Bank Telescope (GBT). Emission in multiple bursts is visible down to the bottom of the GBT band, suggesting that the cutoff frequency (if it exists) for FRB emission is lower than 300 MHz. Observations were conducted during predicted periods of activity of the source, and had simultaneous coverage with the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR) and the FRB backend on the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME) telescope. We find that one of the GBT-detected bursts has potentially associated emission in the CHIME band (400-800 MHz) but we detect no bursts in the LOFAR band (110-190 MHz), placing a limit of $\alpha > -1.0$ on the spectral index of broadband emission from the source. We also find that emission from the source is severely band-limited with burst bandwidths as low as $\sim$40 MHz. In addition, we place the strictest constraint on observable scattering of the source, $<$ 1.7 ms, at 350 MHz, suggesting that the circumburst environment does not have strong scattering properties. Additionally, knowing that the circumburst environment is optically thin to free-free absorption at 300 MHz, we find evidence against the association of a hyper-compact HII region or a young supernova remnant (age $<$ 50 yr) with the source.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty