Final Report: Detection and Characterization of Underground Facilities by Stochastic Inversion and Modeling of Data from the New Generation of Synthetic Aperture Satellites

Many clandestine development and production activities can be conducted underground to evade surveillance. The purpose of the study reported here was to develop a technique to detect underground facilities by broad-area search and then to characterize the facilities by inversion of the collected data. This would enable constraints to be placed on the types of activities that would be feasible at each underground site, providing a basis the design of targeted surveillance and analysis for more complete characterization. Excavation of underground cavities causes deformation in the host material and overburden that produces displacements at the ground surface. Such displacements are often measurable by a variety of surveying or geodetic techniques. One measurement technique, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), uses data from satellite-borne (or airborne) synthetic aperture radars (SARs) and so is ideal for detecting and measuring surface displacements in denied access regions. Depending on the radar frequency and the acquisition mode and the surface conditions, displacement maps derived from SAR interferograms can provide millimeter- to centimeter-level measurement accuracy on regional and local scales at spatial resolution of {approx}1-10 m. Relatively low-resolution ({approx}20 m, say) maps covering large regions can be used for broad-area detection, while finer resolutions ({approx}1 m) can be used to image details of displacement fields over targeted small areas. Surface displacements are generally expected to be largest during or a relatively short time after active excavation, but, depending on the material properties, measurable displacement may continue at a decreasing rate for a considerable time after completion. For a given excavated volume in a given geological setting, the amplitude of the surface displacements decreases as the depth of excavation increases, while the area of the discernable displacement pattern increases. Therefore, the ability to detect evidence for an underground facility using InSAR depends on the displacement sensitivity and spatial resolution of the interferogram, as well as on the size and depth of the facility and the time since its completion. The methodology development described in this report focuses on the exploitation of synthetic aperture radar data that are available commercially from a number of satellite missions. Development of the method involves three components: (1) Evaluation of the capability of InSAR to detect and characterize underground facilities ; (2) inversion of InSAR data to infer the location, depth, shape and volume of a subsurface facility; and (3) evaluation and selection of suitable geomechanical forward models to use in the inversion. We adapted LLNL's general-purpose Bayesian Markov Chain-Monte Carlo procedure, the 'Stochastic Engine' (SE), to carry out inversions to characterize subsurface void geometries. The SE performs forward simulations for a large number of trial source models to identify the set of models that are consistent with the observations and prior constraints. The inverse solution produced by this kind of stochastic method is a posterior probability density function (pdf) over alternative models, which forms an appropriate input to risk-based decision analyses to evaluate subsequent response strategies. One major advantage of a stochastic inversion approach is its ability to deal with complex, non-linear forward models employing empirical, analytical or numerical methods. However, while a geomechanical model must incorporate adequate physics to enable sufficiently accurate prediction of surface displacements, it must also be computationally fast enough to render the large number of forward realizations needed in stochastic inversion feasible. This latter requirement prompted us first to investigate computationally efficient empirical relations and closed-form analytical solutions. However, our evaluation revealed severe limitations in the ability of existing empirical and analytical forms to predict deformations from underground cavities with an accuracy consistent with the potential resolution and precision of InSAR data. We followed two approaches to overcoming these limitations. The first was to develop a new analytical solution for a 3D cavity excavated in an elastic half-space. The second was to adapt a fast parallelized finite element method to the SE and evaluate the feasibility of using in the stochastic inversion. To date we have demonstrated the ability of InSAR to detect underground facilities and measure the associated surface displacements by mapping surface deformations that track the excavation of the Los Angeles Metro system. The Stochastic Engine implementation has been completed and undergone functional testing

Nucleic Acid, Antibody, and Virus Culture Methods to Detect Xenotropic MLV-Related Virus in Human Blood Samples

The MLV-related retrovirus, XMRV, was recently identified and reported to be associated with both prostate cancer and chronic fatigue syndrome. At the National Cancer Institute-Frederick, MD (NCI-Frederick), we developed highly sensitive methods to detect XMRV nucleic acids, antibodies, and replication competent virus. Analysis of XMRV-spiked samples and/or specimens from two pigtail macaques experimentally inoculated with 22Rv1 cell-derived XMRV confirmed the ability of the assays used to detect XMRV RNA and DNA, and culture isolatable virus when present, along with XMRV reactive antibody responses. Using these assays, we did not detect evidence of XMRV in blood samples (N = 134) or prostate specimens (N = 19) from two independent cohorts of patients with prostate cancer. Previous studies detected XMRV in prostate tissues. In the present study, we primarily investigated the levels of XMRV in blood plasma samples collected from patients with prostate cancer. These results demonstrate that while XMRV-related assays developed at the NCI-Frederick can readily measure XMRV nucleic acids, antibodies, and replication competent virus, no evidence of XMRV was found in the blood of patients with prostate cancer

Coalition theories: empirical evidence for dutch municipalities

The paper analyzes coalition formation in Dutch municipalities. After discussing the main features of the institutional setting, several theories are discussed, which are classified as size oriented, policy oriented and actor oriented models. A test statistic is proposed to determine the predictive power of these models. The empirical analysis shows that strategic positions as well as some of the distinguished preferences are important in the setting of Dutch municipalities. Especially, the dominant minimum number principle yields highly significant results for coalition formations in the period 1978–1986

Residual Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Type 1 RNA and DNA in Lymph Nodes and HIV RNA in Genital Secretions and in Cerebrospinal Fluid after Suppression of Viremia for 2 Years

Residual viral replication persists in a significant proportion of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients receiving potent antiretroviral therapy. To determine the source of this virus, levels of HIV RNA and DNA from lymphoid tissues and levels of viral RNA in serum, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and genital secretions in 28 patients treated for ⩽2.5 years with indinavir, zidovudine, and lamivudine were examined. Both HIV RNA and DNA remained detectable in all lymph nodes. In contrast, HIV RNA was not detected in 20 of 23 genital secretions or in any of 13 CSF samples after 2 years of treatment. HIV envelope sequence data from plasma and lymph nodes from 4 patients demonstrated sequence divergence, which suggests varying degrees of residual viral replication in 3 and absence in 1 patient. In patients receiving potent antiretroviral therapy, the greatest virus burden may continue to be in lymphoid tissues rather than in central nervous system or genitourinary compartment

Effect of Coenzyme Q10 on ischemia and neuronal damage in an experimental traumatic brain-injury model in rats

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Head trauma is one of the most important clinical issues that not only can be fatal and disabling, requiring long-term treatment and care, but also can cause heavy financial burden. Formation or distribution of free oxygen radicals should be decreased to enable fixing of poor neurological outcomes and to prevent neuronal damage secondary to ischemia after trauma. Coenzyme Q₁₀(CoQ₁₀), a component of the mitochondrial electron transport chain, is a strong antioxidant that plays a role in membrane stabilization. In this study, the role of CoQ₁₀in the treatment of head trauma is researched by analyzing the histopathological and biochemical effects of CoQ₁₀administered after experimental traumatic brain injury in rats. A traumatic brain-injury model was created in all rats. Trauma was inflicted on rats by the free fall of an object of 450 g weight from a height of 70 cm on the frontoparietal midline onto a metal disc fixed between the coronal and the lambdoid sutures after a midline incision was carried out.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the biochemical tests, tissue malondialdehyde (MDA) levels were significantly higher in the traumatic brain-injury group compared to the sham group (<it>p </it>< 0.05). Administration of CoQ₁₀after trauma was shown to be protective because it significantly lowered the increased MDA levels (<it>p </it>< 0.05). Comparing the superoxide dismutase (SOD) levels of the four groups, trauma + CoQ₁₀group had SOD levels ranging between those of sham group and traumatic brain-injury group, and no statistically significant increase was detected. Histopathological results showed a statistically significant difference between the CoQ₁₀and the other trauma-subjected groups with reference to vascular congestion, neuronal loss, nuclear pyknosis, nuclear hyperchromasia, cytoplasmic eosinophilia, and axonal edema (<it>p </it>< 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Neuronal degenerative findings and the secondary brain damage and ischemia caused by oxidative stress are decreased by CoQ₁₀use in rats with traumatic brain injury.</p

Predicting resistance as indicator for need to switch from first-line antiretroviral therapy among patients with elevated viral loads: development of a risk score algorithm

Abstract Background In resource-limited settings, where resistance testing is unavailable, confirmatory testing for patients with high viral loads (VL) delays antiretroviral therapy (ART) switches for persons with resistance. We developed a risk score algorithm to predict need for ART change by identifying resistance among persons with persistently elevated VL. Methods We analyzed data from a Phase IV open-label trial. Using logistic regression, we identified demographic and clinical characteristics predictive of need for ART change among participants with VLs ≥1000 copies/ml, and assigned model-derived scores to predictors. We designed three models, including only variables accessible in resource-limited settings. Results Among 290 participants with at least one VL ≥1000 copies/ml, 51 % (148/290) resuppressed and did not have resistance testing; among those who did not resuppress and had resistance testing, 47 % (67/142) did not have resistance and 53 % (75/142) had resistance (ART change needed for 25.9 % (75/290)). Need for ART change was directly associated with higher baseline VL and higher VL at time of elevated measure, and inversely associated with treatment duration. Other predictors included body mass index and adherence. Area under receiver operating characteristic curves ranged from 0.794 to 0.817. At a risk score ≥9, sensitivity was 14.7–28.0 % and specificity was 96.7–98.6 %. Conclusions Our model performed reasonably well and may be a tool to quickly transition persons in need of ART change to more effective regimens when resistance testing is unavailable. Use of this algorithm may result in public health benefits and health system savings through reduced transmissions of resistant virus and costs on laboratory investigations

Discovery of a small molecule agonist of phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase p110α that reactivates latent HIV-1

Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) can effectively suppress HIV-1 replication, but the latent viral reservoir in resting memory CD4+ T cells is impervious to cART and represents a major barrier to curing HIV-1 infection. Reactivation of latent HIV-1 represents a possible strategy for elimination of this reservoir. In this study we describe the discovery of 1,2,9,10-tetramethoxy-7H-dibenzo[de,g]quinolin-7-one (57704) which reactivates latent HIV-1 in several cell-line models of latency (J89GFP, U1 and ACH-2). 57704 also increased HIV-1 expression in 3 of 4 CD8+-depleted blood mononuclear cell preparations isolated from HIV-1-infected individuals on suppressive cART. In contrast, vorinostat increased HIV-1 expression in only 1 of the 4 donors tested. Importantly, 57704 does not induce global T cell activation. Mechanistic studies revealed that 57704 reactivates latent HIV-1 via the phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K)/protein kinase B (Akt) signaling pathway. 57704 was found to be an agonist of PI3K with specificity to the p110a isoform, but not the p110β, δ or γ isoforms. Taken together, our work suggests that 57704 could serve as a scaffold for the development of more potent activators of latent HIV-1. Furthermore, it highlights the involvement of the PI3K/Akt pathway in the maintenance of HIV-1 latency. © 2014 Doyon et al

Extended Analysis of HIV Infection in Cisgender Men and Transgender Women Who Have Sex with Men Receiving Injectable Cabotegravir for HIV Prevention: HPTN 083

HPTN 083 demonstrated that injectable cabotegravir (CAB) was superior to oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-emtricitabine (TDF-FTC) for HIV prevention in cisgender men and transgender women who have sex with men. We previously analyzed 58 infections in the blinded phase of HPTN 083 (16 in the CAB arm and 42 in the TDF-FTC arm). This report describes 52 additional infections that occurred up to 1 year after study unblinding (18 in the CAB arm and 34 in the TDF-FTC arm). Retrospective testing included HIV testing, viral load testing, quantification of study drug concentrations, and drug resistance testing. The new CAB arm infections included 7 with CAB administration within 6 months of the first HIV-positive visit (2 with on-time injections, 3 with ≥1 delayed injection, and 2 who restarted CAB) and 11 with no recent CAB administration. Three cases had integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) resistance (2 with on-time injections and 1 who restarted CAB). Among 34 CAB infections analyzed to date, diagnosis delays and INSTI resistance were significantly more common in infections with CAB administration within 6 months of the first HIV-positive visit. This report further characterizes HIV infections in persons receiving CAB preexposure prophylaxis and helps define the impact of CAB on the detection of infection and the emergence of INSTI resistance